Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

I'll simply say that anyone who is certain they're right is certain to be wrong sooner or later.

None of us have crystal balls and there's always an element of doubt in any prediction as to what's going to happen.

 

[over9k]

Well a lot of infrastructure bills have already been passed sooooo

 

[Sdajii]

Well the odds are 3:1 against trump and the market overall is increasing along with renewables & marijuana on a tear way above the market, so if you were correct we'd see either both slumping or the market overall increasing but renewables & marijuana going nowhere, and neither is occurring.

Do you honestly have that short a memory? Do you not remember 2016?

Since it seems necessary, in 2016 the supposed odds against Trump were far worse and all the king's horses and all the king's men, especially all of the media, were absolutely adamant that Trump would lose and a big part of that was that if he won, inevitably the stock market would crash severely. Trump did win and the market immediately rallied. Incidentally, in 2016 I bet two grand on Trump winning.

The mainstream media is as honest as ever and even you may have detected the slightest desire to paint Trump in a bad light. The market pays more attention to reality. If Biden wins, the market absolutely positively will crash. For anyone with any sense of economics and any ability to think independently rather than obediently and blindly follow the mainstream media, it is overwhelmingly obvious that the Democrats have policies which will be catastrophic for the economy. People can vote however they want, voting is free, most voters have no clue, but the market will tell a more realistic story.

 

[Sdajii]

That's good, we are in agreement then.

If by in agreement you mean that we both agree that is it not absolutely certain that Australia is about to experience worse hardship than it did in the 1930s, then yes, specifically on that point, we do agree. That's a pretty desperate reach for common ground, but it does seem that you were fairly desperate to end the conversation, so I'll let you have it.

 

[over9k]

Do you honestly have that short a memory? Do you not remember 2016?

Since it seems necessary, in 2016 the supposed odds against Trump were far worse and all the king's horses and all the king's men, especially all of the media, were absolutely adamant that Trump would lose and a big part of that was that if he won, inevitably the stock market would crash severely. Trump did win and the market immediately rallied. Incidentally, in 2016 I bet two grand on Trump winning.

The mainstream media is as honest as ever and even you may have detected the slightest desire to paint Trump in a bad light. The market pays more attention to reality. If Biden wins, the market absolutely positively will crash. For anyone with any sense of economics and any ability to think independently rather than obediently and blindly follow the mainstream media, it is overwhelmingly obvious that the Democrats have policies which will be catastrophic for the economy. People can vote however they want, voting is free, most voters have no clue, but the market will tell a more realistic story.

You've missed the point again.

If the market thought trump was going to win, cannabis & renewables would not be running, but the stock market would be. If it thought biden was going to, according to you, the market would be down but cannabis & renewables would be up.

Instead, BOTH are up. So either the market thinks trump is good for cannabis & renewables, or it thinks biden is good for the economy.


I, too, won a lot of money in 2016. About 40x what you did in fact. I won so much money that all the betting sites locked and blocked my accounts and I had to get the northern territory gaming commission involved in a 6 month long legal battle to make them pay me my winnings. Today, there is just one site left in the entire country that I still have an account with - I've been banned from/booted off all of the others for taking them to the cleaners.


Stop thinking you're the only person around here that knows anything.

 

[qldfrog]

True, but wisdom and age beat youth and inexperience.

This definitively applies when the world remains relatively stable,
Veterans of wwi were right in their ww2 forecast,
Veterans of ww2 got it wrong all the way with the ussr ww3 in waiting
The most experienced and older employees are now often dinosaurs in a eorld of IT high speed etc.
Wisdom still applies in philosophy, human nature etc, but for science technology and now economy, the wisdom of an older Australian who has not seen a recession since the Keating years is to be taken with a grain of salt.moreover, a quick travel to your capital city.. Hobart excepted ?
will quickly show you the average Aussie is now very different from the one 50y ago.
Note that i have the highest respect for both @sptrawler and @SirRumpole..and i am not a spring chicken myself.
:-(

 

[Sdajii]

You've missed the point again.

If the market thought trump was going to win, cannabis & renewables would not be running, but the stock market would be. If it thought biden was going to, according to you, the market would be down but cannabis & renewables would be up.

Instead, BOTH are up. So either the market thinks trump is good for cannabis & renewables, or it thinks biden is good for the economy.

Or the people in those specific industry predictably have the typical human condition of tunnel vision. Those in love with weed etc are into the hype of Biden leading the polls. This isn't necessarily what all people think. This may surprise you, and I actually say that seriously because you're acting like you don't realise it, but different demographics can have different predictions!

I, too, won a lot of money in 2016. About 40x what you did in fact. I won so much money that all the betting sites locked and blocked my accounts and I had to get the northern territory gaming commission involved in a 6 month long legal battle to make them pay me my winnings. Today, there is just one site left in the entire country that I still have an account with - I've been banned from/booted off all of the others for taking them to the cleaners.

I was quite openly talking about it at the time, much to the mockery of most people. If you wish to disbelieve, that's your choice.

Stop thinking you're the only person around here that knows anything.

Do you think I am insane enough to think everyone believes what you do? There are plenty of people in this world including several taking part in this thread who know plenty, some know more than me on this topic, and pretty much all on many other topics. The fact that I'm disagreeing with you in one discussion doesn't mean I disagree with everyone on all things and your assertion of anything else is just more absurd nonsense from you. What a peculiar and unfortunate mindset you have, which makes you think that if someone disagrees with you personally on one topic they think they are the only person who knows anything about anything.

 

[over9k]

Or the people in those specific industry predictably have the typical human condition of tunnel vision. Those in love with weed etc are into the hype of Biden leading the polls. This isn't necessarily what all people think. This may surprise you, and I actually say that seriously because you're acting like you don't realise it, but different demographics can have different predictions!

Bong heads are not exactly known for their investing skills (or in fact, having any money to invest at all). Neither are tree hugging save the earth greens voting loons.

I was quite openly talking about it at the time, much to the mockery of most people. If you wish to disbelieve, that's your choice.

Never said I didn't believe you, and I don't know why you're saying I didn't.

My point was that you're not the cleverest person in the room like you clearly think you are. 2k on trump to win in 2016 is nothing.

Do you think I am insane enough to think everyone believes what you do? There are plenty of people in this world including several taking part in this thread who know plenty, some know more than me on this topic, and pretty much all on many other topics. The fact that I'm disagreeing with you in one discussion doesn't mean I disagree with everyone on all things and your assertion of anything else is just more absurd nonsense from you. What a peculiar and unfortunate mindset you have, which makes you think that if someone disagrees with you personally on one topic they think they are the only person who knows anything about anything.

Your posts absolutely drip with conceit, and you argue with basically everyone about basically everything and do so in the snarkiest way possible. Don't try & pretend like you don't.

 

[SirRumpole]

This definitively applies when the world remains relatively stable,
Veterans of wwi were right in their ww2 forecast,
Veterans of ww2 got it wrong all the way with the ussr ww3 in waiting
The most experienced and older employees are now often dinosaurs in a eorld of IT high speed etc.
Wisdom still applies in philosophy, human nature etc, but for science technology and now economy, the wisdom of an older Australian who has not seen a recession since the Keating years is to be taken with a grain of salt.moreover, a quick travel to your capital city.. Hobart excepted ?
will quickly show you the average Aussie is now very different from the one 50y ago.
Note that i have the highest respect for both @sptrawler and @SirRumpole..and i am not a spring chicken myself.
:-(

I certainly agree about technology and the young. They have it all over us oldies.

However a lot of the young have never seen a recession, or at least haven't had to find work during one, and it's pretty evident that some of them are spoiled and think that everything has to go their way all the time.

And before people say the recession is due to covid, we were heading that way anyway. Near zero or negative interest rates are not a sign of a healthy economy, either here or worldwide.

 

[Smurf1976]

moreover, a quick travel to your capital city.. Hobart excepted ?
will quickly show you the average Aussie is now very different from the one 50y ago.

Something to note is that there's basically nobody who's "average" in every way but to the extent such a person exists, they're a woman born in 1983.

Yes 1983. Half the current population of Australia wasn't born when Hawke was elected PM and Australia won the America's Cup.

A definite issue I do see though is that we're at the point now where quite a few managers and even people like board members and CEO's lack business experience in anything other than good times. Anyone under ~47 years old was still a child last time we had a recession and pretty much no current senior manager would have held a senior management position back then.

As such, our corporate boards are largely filled with people who have a lot in common with P plate drivers who've never seen a real car crash or novice share traders who've heard of previous market crashes but think there'll never be another one. As they all know, it's perfectly safe to drive at 150km around a blind corner and it's just fine to have highly leveraged exposure to tech stocks because nothing can go wrong. Until it does......

I'd be surprised if there aren't businesses out there, probably quite a few, which are ill prepared for a downturn due to that lack of experience.

My personal view is that experience and youth both bring something of value and it's wise to listen carefully to what everyone has to say and consider it. Young people often point out the elephant in the room that everyone else had somehow failed to notice. The old ones tend to be far more aware of what can go wrong because they've seen it happen.

 

[qldfrog]

My personal view is that experience and youth both bring something of value and it's wise to listen carefully to what everyone has to say and consider it. Young people often point out the elephant in the room that everyone else had somehow failed to notice. The old ones tend to be far more aware of what can go wrong because they've seen it happen.

that is what I try to point:
Australia is specific in that many of the old wise voices come from people who have a very naive view of the world and have live a sheltered life: economically blissfull, no war or terrorism of any real scale:
we make heroes of people who experience DV or PTSD, we see Covid as a grand thread.
Our wise men have hardly seen drama, unless it is personal like illness, asssault, but nothing of national significance
For example the view of guns in this country demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of weapons -> except for present and past members of the police and army, very few australians have ever hold a machine gun or military equipment, nor wondered if they will be in a front line next week potentially to kill or be killed.And armed forces here are ridiculously small in numbers
I have a feeling that an average white (or black) 20y old farmer from South Africa to take an example has much more knowledge and wisdom of the world than a senior in Oz, in human behaviour, economy and in a way philosophy
The blissfullness ignorance of world affairs and naive view of Australians (in geopolitics/history) is a delight to live among until you hit real world issues covid immigration islam international trade, chinese expansion, you name it ; this is where you start banging your head against the wall
have all a great night

 

[Smurf1976]

The blissfullness ignorance of world affairs and naive view of Australians (in geopolitics/history) is a delight to live among until you hit real world issues covid immigration islam international trade, chinese expansion, you name it ; this is where you start banging your head against the wall

Agreed there's often a naivety among Australians but to be fair, it's not by any means unique to this country given that to considerable extent that naivety takes the form of following someone else.

Someone else doesn't know what they're doing and nor does the Aussie who copies them. Both are bad.

I say that not as a political comment but as an economic one. A lot of business management in Australia is just generic "cut & paste" from overseas where it didn't work either. Not all obviously but it's certainly a thing, it happens, hence whatever problems emerge somewhere else tend to show up at least to some extent here.

 

[sptrawler]

Another way of looking at the issue is from an investment perspective, those who feel we are in the midst of a financial catastrophe, probably have either sold out of the market or not bought in.
Those who feel the stimulus and buoyant raw material demand may see us through, have probably bought in to the correction, time will tell which was the prudent course of action.
The ASX hit 4,400 on March 27, today it is around 6,200, it will be interesting to see where it is in 6-12 months time.

 

[qldfrog]

Another way of looking at the issue is from an investment perspective, those who feel we are in the midst of a financial catastrophe, probably have either sold out of the market or not bought in.
Those who feel the stimulus and buoyant raw material demand may see us through, have probably bought in to the correction, time will tell which was the prudent course of action.
The ASX hit 4,400 on March 27, today it is around 6,200, it will be interesting to see where it is in 6-12 months time.

As long as you can find non chinese steel mills to buy our coal and iron ore
Australian minerals will sell at a discount,in 6 months,i bet mire on Vale (Brazil) then Rio or worse BHP just because of China politics

 

[qldfrog]

BHP confirms Chinese customers have cancelled orders for Australian coal

The mining giant says it has received deferment requests from Chinese coal customers, confirming reports China has put a freeze on accepting Australian coal.

www.abc.net.au

This is what i expect in the coming months.economic leverage

 

[Sdajii]

Bong heads are not exactly known for their investing skills (or in fact, having any money to invest at all). Neither are tree hugging save the earth greens voting loons.

The concept is exactly the same for all industries. I'm not exclusively talking about stoned out morons. Look at the oil industry. At any given time you gave people believing the price will go up and the price will go down. Obviously the people who drill are the ones willing and able to spend the most money, and they're the ones who are the most bullish on the price of oil. If you aren't in that mindset you aren't drilling. So, the whole industry is biased towards people who are the most bullish. They may be among the people who know the industry best, but there's a massive bias which is why that industry tends to be overconfident. Same principle with weed.

My point was that you're not the cleverest person in the room like you clearly think you are. 2k on trump to win in 2016 is nothing.

I don't claim to be or think I am the most clever person in the room. I do think there are specific issues here which I have a better grasp on than you do. That's not to say I know them better than everyone else in this thread, and it's not to say anything about me or you in a general sense.

My only point about betting on Trump (the first online bet I'd ever made, I'm not really a gambler), was that the overwhelming majority of the mainstream media and the vast majority of all people willing to speak openly about the topic said Trump had no chance of winning, despite the fact that it was very clear he was going to win. It shows how detached from reality the mainstream narrative can be, even when that narrative is very clear. I'm not saying I made an incredible fortune on that investment, I'm just saying that clearly I had full confidence in it despite the entire community narrative being the opposite, and you were basically ranting along similar lines and making a similar mistake because of the social/psychological phenomenon.

Your posts absolutely drip with conceit, and you argue with basically everyone about basically everything and do so in the snarkiest way possible. Don't try & pretend like you don't.

Again, you fail to see the difference between you as an individual and "basically everyone". I don't argue with the people I agree with, I don't argue with the people I know are or assume do or are likely to know more than I do. I don't argue about topics I have no grasp of. I certainly have a lot less respect for you than I do most people and accordingly will have a different attitude towards you from the one I have to most other people. I do think a lot of attitudes displayed on the topics discussed in this thread are absolutely disgusting, shameful and naive, so on this topic. We are literally seeing a global narrative which endorses decisions which will potentially cause more death and suffering than anything else in the history of our species, and certainly anything since WWII, and many people refuse to see the situation clearly despite how obvious it is. Sadly, most people follow the mainstream narratives rather than what is very clear and easy to see with any amount of intelligence and independent thought.

 

[over9k]

It's not that you disagree with people, it's that you don't actually have a discussion or even a respectful debate with them - it's just conceited snark the entire time. There's about a dozen quotable instances just in the past few pages and they are by no means unique to responding to me.

You're a hard guy to talk to.

 

[over9k]

Something to note is that there's basically nobody who's "average" in every way but to the extent such a person exists, they're a woman born in 1983.

Yes 1983. Half the current population of Australia wasn't born when Hawke was elected PM and Australia won the America's Cup.

A definite issue I do see though is that we're at the point now where quite a few managers and even people like board members and CEO's lack business experience in anything other than good times. Anyone under ~47 years old was still a child last time we had a recession and pretty much no current senior manager would have held a senior management position back then.

As such, our corporate boards are largely filled with people who have a lot in common with P plate drivers who've never seen a real car crash or novice share traders who've heard of previous market crashes but think there'll never be another one. As they all know, it's perfectly safe to drive at 150km around a blind corner and it's just fine to have highly leveraged exposure to tech stocks because nothing can go wrong. Until it does......

I'd be surprised if there aren't businesses out there, probably quite a few, which are ill prepared for a downturn due to that lack of experience.

My personal view is that experience and youth both bring something of value and it's wise to listen carefully to what everyone has to say and consider it. Young people often point out the elephant in the room that everyone else had somehow failed to notice. The old ones tend to be far more aware of what can go wrong because they've seen it happen.

Great post. I'll add the caveat that if you can spot something that's different this time then you can explain why history won't repeat (same as if you can see what's the same or even identify the same thing which caused it last time then you know it's going to occur this time) and thus make a lot of money.

I say this because a lot of people are comparing now to the .com bubble of 20 years ago and there are some major, fundamental differences this time.

 

[Junior]

re Trump now versus Trump 2016. There are massive differences.

• In terms of polling, Biden has a far greater lead over Trump, compared with the lead Clinton held at this stage of the race in 2016. Yes, the polls were 'wrong' in 2016. That does not mean they are automatically wrong now. Even allowing for a big margin of error, Biden wins in a landslide.
• The US economy was strong and growing in 2016, now the economy is very weak. People are out of work, more are on welfare than ever before, and they are scared of the virus.
• In 2016, Trump promised how great America would be under his administration, we've now seen 4 years of Trump, America is weak and Trump's promises of a great future have not materialised. He's had 4 years already, and America is divided and the economy smashed.
• This year, Trump faced his first real crisis in the form of a global pandemic. The US has dealt with this crisis worse than any developed nation on the planet. Even Trump himself contracted the virus and was hospitalised. If you look at the state-by-state figures now, in terms of new COVID cases per day, astonishingly the top 20 are all Republican-leaning states. They are now the hardest hit with this virus. If you live in these states, chances are you've either been very sick with COVID, or know someone who has. Chances are you know someone who has been killed by the virus.
• Biden is not Clinton. Many voters rage-voted for Trump, as a protest against Clinton, a protest against the status quo. Biden is not attracting that level of rage and distrust as we saw with Clinton in 2016. We've now seen the alternative to the status quo for the past 4 years, and it's an absolute circus.
• Policy. Does anyone care about policy for this election? The Trump campaign doesn't even have articulated policies!

 

[sptrawler]

re Trump now versus Trump 2016. There are massive differences.

• In terms of polling, Biden has a far greater lead over Trump, compared with the lead Clinton held at this stage of the race in 2016. Yes, the polls were 'wrong' in 2016. That does not mean they are automatically wrong now. Even allowing for a big margin of error, Biden wins in a landslide.
• The US economy was strong and growing in 2016, now the economy is very weak. People are out of work, more are on welfare than ever before, and they are scared of the virus.
• In 2016, Trump promised how great America would be under his administration, we've now seen 4 years of Trump, America is weak and Trump's promises of a great future have not materialised. He's had 4 years already, and America is divided and the economy smashed.
• This year, Trump faced his first real crisis in the form of a global pandemic. The US has dealt with this crisis worse than any developed nation on the planet. Even Trump himself contracted the virus and was hospitalised. If you look at the state-by-state figures now, in terms of new COVID cases per day, astonishingly the top 20 are all Republican-leaning states. They are now the hardest hit with this virus. If you live in these states, chances are you've either been very sick with COVID, or know someone who has. Chances are you know someone who has been killed by the virus.
• Biden is not Clinton. Many voters rage-voted for Trump, as a protest against Clinton, a protest against the status quo. Biden is not attracting that level of rage and distrust as we saw with Clinton in 2016. We've now seen the alternative to the status quo for the past 4 years, and it's an absolute circus.
• Policy. Does anyone care about policy for this election? The Trump campaign doesn't even have articulated policies!

Great balanced analysis junior, simple to the point and un emotional.
The only thing Trump has in his favour IMO, is his known stance against China dominance, it will be interesting to see how much sway that has in the outcome.
From an Australian perspective, as this is about the economic impact of the virus, the Chinese since the fallout from the virus have shown they don't hold inter country loyalties very highly.
The embargoes and threatened embargoes on various Australian product, shows clearly they are willing to flex their new found financial muscle, which as @qldfrog could have a big impact on our recovery.