Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Sdajii]

True, but wisdom and age beat youth and inexperience.

Only if that wisdom does indeed exist, which quite often it does not.

The oldest president of the USA ever to be voted in was your good friend and idol, Mr. Donald Trump. Do you consider him to be the most wise in that nation's great history?

 

[SirRumpole]

Only if that wisdom does indeed exist, which quite often it does not.

The oldest president of the USA ever to be voted in was your good friend and idol, Mr. Donald Trump. Do you consider him to be the most wise in that nation's great history?

Old age and wisdom don't necessarily go together.

DJ Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and spent most of his life looking down on others and using them to make money for himself.

Those in this forum that faced recessions at the ground level like sp are much more likely to gain the benefit of wisdom through actual lived experience.

 

[Sdajii]

Old age and wisdom don't necessarily go together.

Thank you for repeating the point I was making to you. Since I was already telling you, perhaps I should feign an assumption that repeating obediently to me indicates that you have indeed learned the message I taught you. Good boy.

What people say should be judged on its merits, not the age of the person saying it. While there is a positive correlation between age and wisdom, I have found a strong negative correlation between claims of wisdom by virtue of age, and actual wisdom. This concept works with many positive traits; people usually let such things speak for themselves and only boast out of insecurity/inadequacy.

 

[over9k]

Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is going to happen.

And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally most of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.

This is not complicated.

 

[Sdajii]

Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is going to happen.

And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally most of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.

This is not complicated.

This is a valid point, but it's more complicated than you assert.

Looking at the most obvious example I can think of (iron ore prices and the 2008 crash), the price of iron ore predictably tumbled in 2008, took years to recover but never reached its previous high. Today 12 years later the price of iron ore is sitting at around a six year high which is still less than half the price it was before the 2008 crash (inflation adjusted - a little over half the peak price ignoring inflation).

There's definitely validity in the one aspect of the economy you're talking about and it will definitely mitigate the problem to a significant extent, but it won't be the thing which shapes the overall picture.

 

[over9k]

It might help to elaborate...

 

[sptrawler]

You bring your age up again as though it is a default for wisdom or experience, but such things don't come automatically with age, even if there is a correlation. You seem to think that since you're old you must be correct. This is not the case.

In today's paper, just in case you need more confirmation, the IMF agree with me. But hey I'm o.k if you don't, we are both just using our experience in our reasoning.

Australia to escape worst of recession but faces debt mountain: IMF

The IMF has upgraded its forecasts for the Australian economy but much still hinges on the creation of a safe and widely available vaccine.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:

The coronavirus recession will not be as deep as feared for Australia, the International Monetary Fund believes, but it will take years to recover with ongoing high levels of unemployment and government debt.

In its world economic outlook released overnight, the fund said it expects the Australian economy to contract by 4.2 per cent this year before growing by 3 per cent in 2021.

The forecasts are a sharp improvement on what the IMF was expecting in April, during the depths of nation-wide health restrictions, when it believed the economy would shrink by 6.7 per cent before growing by 6.1 per cent.

The better growth outlook translates into an improved forecast for the jobs market. Unemployment is tipped to reach 6.9 per cent this year and then increase to 7.7 per cent through 2021. In April, the IMF was forecasting unemployment to reach 8.9 per cent next year.

 

[Sdajii]

In today's paper, just in case you need more confirmation, the IMF agree with me. But hey I'm o.k if you don't, we are both just using our experience in our reasoning.

Australia to escape worst of recession but faces debt mountain: IMF

The IMF has upgraded its forecasts for the Australian economy but much still hinges on the creation of a safe and widely available vaccine.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:

The coronavirus recession will not be as deep as feared for Australia, the International Monetary Fund believes, but it will take years to recover with ongoing high levels of unemployment and government debt.

In its world economic outlook released overnight, the fund said it expects the Australian economy to contract by 4.2 per cent this year before growing by 3 per cent in 2021.

The forecasts are a sharp improvement on what the IMF was expecting in April, during the depths of nation-wide health restrictions, when it believed the economy would shrink by 6.7 per cent before growing by 6.1 per cent.

The better growth outlook translates into an improved forecast for the jobs market. Unemployment is tipped to reach 6.9 per cent this year and then increase to 7.7 per cent through 2021. In April, the IMF was forecasting unemployment to reach 8.9 per cent next year.

Oh, you cherry picked an online article which agrees with you! Hey, there's no comeback to that, I mean, it's from the SMH, an entirely non partisan news outlet which serves as a beacon of truth and integrity, a veritably fountain of infallible information. Clearly you are all seeing and almighty, oh wise one.

 

[sptrawler]

Oh, you cherry picked an online article which agrees with you! Hey, there's no comeback to that, I mean, it's from the SMH, an entirely non partisan news outlet which serves as a beacon of truth and integrity, a veritably fountain of infallible information. Clearly you are all seeing and almighty, oh wise one.

Look mate, I personally don't give a rats ar$e one way or the other.
I put forward my thoughts, you put forward yours, they are only thoughts. it isn't as though either of us has a glass ball mate, so no need to start with the personal crap.
So rant on and knock yourself out, I wont bother engaging in discussion with you, obviously you prefer an echo chamber. ?

 

[sptrawler]

Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is going to happen.

And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally most of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.

This is not complicated.

Very true 9k, the mass shift globally to renewables should also add to the infrastructure spend, as a lot of the renewable devices use a different resource mix than has been usual in the past. For example a 13GW solar farm will possibly use a lot more aluminum than the coal fired stations they are replacing, also i would think BEV's will be upping the aluminum content to reduce weight, which in turn will marginally reduce the steel content. The steel sector will have plenty of work as you say with the infrastructure build, it should be an interesting 2021 IMO, especially if a vaccine is developed.

 

[Sdajii]

Look mate, I personally don't give a rats ar$e one way or the other.
I put forward my thoughts, you put forward yours, they are only thoughts. it isn't as though either of us has a glass ball mate, so no need to start with the personal crap.
So rant on and knock yourself out, I wont bother engaging in discussion with you, obviously you prefer an echo chamber. ?

Haha! Yes, your wisdom shines ever brighter!

If I liked echo chambers I clearly wouldn't be engaging with people who completely disagree with me. I'd probably be stating that I will no longer bother engaging with people who disagree with me. Oh, wait, I think I just saw someone doing exactly that!

Maybe if you live a bit longer you'll gain enough wisdom not to get riled up and demonstrate hypocrisy when someone disagrees with you and doesn't buy your empty attempts at validating yourself.

 

[sptrawler]

Haha! Yes, your wisdom shines ever brighter!

If I liked echo chambers I clearly wouldn't be engaging with people who completely disagree with me. I'd probably be stating that I will no longer bother engaging with people who disagree with me. Oh, wait, I think I just saw someone doing exactly that!

Maybe if you live a bit longer you'll gain enough wisdom not to get riled up and demonstrate hypocrisy when someone disagrees with you and doesn't buy your empty attempts at validating yourself.

Here is a few others who disagree with your pessimism.
By the way, i hope to live a bit longer and gain some more wisdom, hopefully you do the same. ?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Sdajii]

Here is a few others who disagree with your pessimism.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

You realise the internet is really really big and you can find as many articles as you like backing up any position you want, right? I'm not going to sit here and cherry pick articles talking about the most extreme doom and gloom predictions and say "See? There are all these articles online saying X, so X must be true!"

Four years ago your same sources were saying it was impossible for Trump to win. Early this year they were saying lockdowns were essential for public health and safety in order to dramatically lessen the amount of harm done (this was obviously untrue and I'm surprised that now even the WHO acknowledges that they have caused and are causing more harm than good). Even consensus in the mainstream media does not indicate fact, but cherry picking is just meaningless.

If you are so incredibly wise, why don't you articulate your own position rather than just cherry picking online articles the way today's naive adolescents do?

 

[over9k]

Then there's the political edge to things as the markets are starting to price a biden win in - TAN (renewable energy ETF) and CGC (marijuana producer) have both shot up in response.

 

[sptrawler]

You realise the internet is really really big and you can find as many articles as you like backing up any position you want, right? I'm not going to sit here and cherry pick articles talking about the most extreme doom and gloom predictions and say "See? There are all these articles online saying X, so X must be true!"

O.K on what basis do you think this recession is going to be the worst Australia has faced?

 

[Sdajii]

Then there's the political edge to things as the markets are starting to price a biden win in - TAN (renewable energy ETF) and CGC (marijuana producer) have both shot up in response.

Marijuana and renewable energy would be among the very few things which would benefit from a Biden win, although if Biden was to win the economy would take an incredible tumble and even those stocks would be dragged down.

 

[Sdajii]

O.K on what basis do you think this recession is going to be the worst Australia has faced?

I didn't claim it would. You claimed to be so amazingly wise, you should at least be able to refrain from putting claims into other people's mouths.

 

[sptrawler]

I didn't claim it would. You claimed to be so amazingly wise, you should at least be able to refrain from putting claims into other people's mouths.

That's good, we are in agreement then.

 

[over9k]

Marijuana and renewable energy would be among the very few things which would benefit from a Biden win, although if Biden was to win the economy would take an incredible tumble and even those stocks would be dragged down.

Well the odds are 3:1 against trump and the market overall is increasing along with renewables & marijuana on a tear way above the market, so if you were correct we'd see either both slumping or the market overall increasing but renewables & marijuana going nowhere, and neither is occurring.

 

[IFocus]

On average the US economy and markets have preformed better under Democrat presidents than Republicans although with the unfunded stimulus spending reduced revenue (Trumps an economic genus) and now spending on the pandemic amounting to an extortionary pile of debt all bets will be off for Biden should he win.