Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

perhaps we should "hand back" and renege all our white folk stolen title to land back to the true owners?

A lot of the original owners were completely wiped out as a species ~45,000 years ago and most that weren't wiped out then have been wiped out since but as a concept sure, we do need areas set aside for animals, the original occupiers of the land, and which humans are kept well away from.

Not sure what it's got to do with the coronavirus outbreak though? Well, not unless it wipes out a decent % of the humans and in doing so makes handing land back to nature rather easy.

I'd like to think it could be done in a more orderly, clam manner though rather than being the product of a pandemic.

 

[PZ99]

Is this a case of welfare fraud ?

Companies receiving JobKeeper payments then paying large amounts of it to executives.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...s-bonuses-despite-claiming-jobkeeper/12647688

A lot of those companies have at some stage either complained about wages or stolen wages.

And there are jokers out there still saying that cutting wages will save / create jobs. Yeah right

 

[basilio]

The news on COVID in Europe and elsewhere is sobering. Countries that thought they had it under control now have rapidly expanding illnesses and deaths.
Makes the Victorian/Australian situation look positively rosy..

Coronavirus live news: record daily rise in cases in France and Greece
French cases near 10,000 in a day; single biggest rise in Greece; Portugal limits gatherings to 10 people; Mexico signs agreement for Sputnik V vaccine

• Central Europe faces worse second wave after avoiding worst of first
• UK looks to Belgium for Covid inspiration despite infections rise
• Trump admits playing down virus as total deaths exceed 900,000
• AstraZeneca chief claims vaccine still possible this year

LIVE Updated 42m ago

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ed-americans-as-infections-rise-across-europe

 

[over9k]

Like I said before, we're heading into winter, which means waaaay more infections/spread/lethality up there. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

And that's just the wealthy countries. The poor ones are done for.

 

[cutz]

Like I said before, we're heading into winter, which means waaaay more infections/spread/lethality up there.

Are you in the Northern Hemi ??

My thoughts too, we should see better days ahead down under with the end of the flu season..

 

[over9k]

Nah, but will be soon.

Ask your doctor about the effect of cold (and we're talking freezing temps here, not just a little bit chilly) on spread & lethality, it's a BIG difference.

Then you get the fact that we have even more time spent inside in close proximity to people and... well, it's just a recipe for disaster all round.

 

[Smurf1976]

This sounds ominous:

One in five borrowers have ghosted their bank

One in five borrowers have ghosted their bank

Senior bankers face a novel challenge in working out how to manage the tens of thousands of home loan borrowers who have decided to ghost them.

www.afr.com

Basically says one in five of those who deferred their mortgage repayments during the pandemic aren't answering calls from the bank. That sounds rather ominous to me in terms of potential defaults etc.

 

[over9k]

Maybe. How many have deferred payments?

 

[cutz]

Maybe. How many have deferred payments?

Apparently 480,727 customers , only just managed to read that bit just under the headline, then hit the paywall, quite an alarming figure.

Probably not just the banks are going to take a hit, I believe insurance companies have offered premium relief, many of these policies may turn into cancellations....

 

[Sdajii]

This sounds ominous:

One in five borrowers have ghosted their bank

Senior bankers face a novel challenge in working out how to manage the tens of thousands of home loan borrowers who have decided to ghost them.

www.afr.com

Basically says one in five of those who deferred their mortgage repayments during the pandemic aren't answering calls from the bank. That sounds rather ominous to me in terms of potential defaults etc.

This whole overreaction is setting us up for drastic economic problems down the track. Imagine my surprise.

It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.

 

[Smurf1976]

It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.

To me it has exposed a far more dangerous reality.

Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.

Nothing more can be said. That's the single greatest learning from the whole thing. If we can't control pandemics in cities of 5 million people then quite simply we can't afford to have cities of 5 million people because next time the pandemic may well be far more deadly than this one has thus far turned out to be. That is the lesson which needs to be learned.

Now I'm not suggesting we take 2 million people from each of Sydney and Melbourne and shoot them, that's not at all the sort of thing I have in mind, but with planning regulations, taxes and government playing an active role as a developer I'm very sure that a major new city could be established in Australia and in an orderly manner the population of the big two reduced. Such a plan would need massive buy in from the states and the public but now's the time, the proverbial iron's red hot to make bold decisions.

Even if government does nothing I do think we'll see a limited move away from the big cities. Have a look pretty much anywhere that real estate is discussed and there's not exactly too much enthusiasm for either of the big two cities right now, the sentiment definitely favours smaller places. Many won't act but no doubt some will and my thinking is that even if we do see a return to "business as usual" it won't be with the same growth trajectory for Melbourne in particular, this whole thing's too big to be quickly shrugged off.

 

[Smurf1976]

It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.

What happens during the coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere will make or break the issue so far as public sentiment is concerned.

One way or another, it's now Autumn in that part of the world, the temperature's starting to drop, and we're going to see what happens over the next few months and most likely that does involve one side or the other "winning" both economically (including markets) and politically.

I'm making a bold statement there but that's not without reason. There's a massive amount staked on this in every way. Money, politics and life itself - there's some huge bets being placed on both sides. Once the Northern winter hits, we'll know how it really plays out is my expectation.

 

[SirRumpole]

Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.

I'm sure that there are a lot of people who want to get away from the rat race, but all the rats who buy their products and services are in the big cities.

There needs to be a move from governments to ensure that services are present in regional areas before people move, otherwise most people will keep thinking that regions are 'primitive' and will stick to what they know.

Water supply will be critical, and the lack of it has been the death of many "satellite city" plans, especially west of the Great Divide.

 

[over9k]

The northern hemisphere is boned. There are a LOT more deaths to come.

 

[Smurf1976]

There needs to be a move from governments to ensure that services are present in regional areas before people move, otherwise most people will keep thinking that regions are 'primitive' and will stick to what they know.

Water supply will be critical, and the lack of it has been the death of many "satellite city" plans, especially west of the Great Divide.

Indeed but Smurfs don't do half measures......

I'm thinking government as developer, flood the market with residential and commercial land ready for building on and keep that market flooded such that the land has zero scarcity value until the city is built out. No waiting, no delay - anyone can buy one on the condition they commence physical construction on site within 12 months. All building work privately funded, government develops the land only.

Use the tax system to make it attractive for both individuals and business.

Infrastructure can fix the water problem just build it. Renewable energy and connection to the existing grid removes the proximity of coal as a consideration. Desalination and/or large water diversion infrastructure fixes that one.

Locations plenty of options. 3 million as a target population makes infrastructure very affordable so plenty of places it could go.

Yes I'm serious. If we're going to spend borrowed money to fix the economy well them might as well do something dramatic with it.

 

[Smurf1976]

The northern hemisphere is boned. There are a LOT more deaths to come.

I suspect you are right - one way or another though we're about to find out given the seasons.

 

[over9k]

Yeah. I'm just mulling a bet against oil over. I'm wondering if I might be a month late to the party or if there's more legs in the drop yet.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm just mulling a bet against oil over. I'm wondering if I might be a month late to the party or if there's more legs in the drop yet.

The existence of surplus production capacity (in the short term at least) and the involvement of governments in the industry both directly and via quotas etc is something to bear in mind in my view.

That's not necessarily bearish, but oil isn't only influenced by supply and demand there's also politics in the mix influencing price.

 

[over9k]

Oh yeah I'm a geopolitics guy so well aware of all that stuff going on. If you're interested, take a look at tanker leasing numbers lately

 

[Sdajii]

To me it has exposed a far more dangerous reality.

Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.

Nothing more can be said. That's the single greatest learning from the whole thing. If we can't control pandemics in cities of 5 million people then quite simply we can't afford to have cities of 5 million people because next time the pandemic may well be far more deadly than this one has thus far turned out to be. That is the lesson which needs to be learned.

Now I'm not suggesting we take 2 million people from each of Sydney and Melbourne and shoot them, that's not at all the sort of thing I have in mind, but with planning regulations, taxes and government playing an active role as a developer I'm very sure that a major new city could be established in Australia and in an orderly manner the population of the big two reduced. Such a plan would need massive buy in from the states and the public but now's the time, the proverbial iron's red hot to make bold decisions.

Even if government does nothing I do think we'll see a limited move away from the big cities. Have a look pretty much anywhere that real estate is discussed and there's not exactly too much enthusiasm for either of the big two cities right now, the sentiment definitely favours smaller places. Many won't act but no doubt some will and my thinking is that even if we do see a return to "business as usual" it won't be with the same growth trajectory for Melbourne in particular, this whole thing's too big to be quickly shrugged off.

I doubt cities of 5 million people are going away. If you want to call this a pandemic at all, then you're including any old bug as a pandemic, and we have many of them all the time but usually we don't even pay attention. The next one will be another one we don't talk much about or even notice. Of course at some stage there will be one more deadly than this trivial one, but really, what this shows (to anyone with an open eyelid) is that people have no sense of proportion or perspective; everyone is freaking out and taking extreme measures for a trivial virus. That's not to say I have no value on human life or wellbeing or anything of the sort. If this is genuinely about human lives, it's objective insanity; look at how much money we have squandered, and look at how easily we could have saved far, far more lives with far, far less money. Look at how terrified people are of a virus which is literally probably not even going to make them sick if they're directly exposed to it, while they ignore far greater risks. If we put an equal amount of fuss and expense into every risk as high as this virus, we'd have collapsed society long ago and could simply not function.

At the end of the day, money talks and a deviation from convenience and short-sighted pragmatism (not to be confused with true pragmatism) can only last for so long. People also have extraordinarily short memories. If it makes financial sense for cities to exist, they will.