Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

Victoria has the most dense population and coldest climate other than Tasmania (which has very low population density and a small population size). You are ignoring the primary factors which determine what a virus will do.

Victoria might have an overall statewide average density that's higher but people don't live evenly distributed across the state.

Sydney is almost exactly the same size population as Melbourne.

Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are all substantial cities. They all have big buildings, they all have public transport and so on just as Melbourne does.

Whilst very much smaller Hobart does have a CBD as such, it does have buses, people do go to restaurants and pubs and so on. It's a small city but people do normally come in contact with others and the basic requirements to spread the virus do exist. It also has fewer options for anything by virtue of its smaller population - Eastlands and Northgate (the two largest suburban shopping centers) alone would have had a decent % of the entire population through them since this started and both are completely indoor environments.

Adelaide and Perth aren't particularly warm in Winter. People wear winter clothes and use heating in buildings yes. Adelaide also gets most of its annual rainfall during winter.

And so on. About the only thing which is truly unique to Melbourne is that trams are a significant method of transport, being either a minor thing or nonexistent elsewhere. They seem an unlikely source of the problem however given their similarity to trains and buses one or both of which operate in all cities.

The one thing which does seem markedly different in Victoria is the approach taken. At the risk of sounding rather harsh, to someone looking from the outside it looks like a population whinging about doing what needs to be done combined with a heavy handed approach to the law neither of which are in any way helping.

 

[Smurf1976]

According to official data, the protests didn't contribute.

The problem with the protests was that they encouraged breaking of the social distancing more broadly.

In the minds of many "good enough for a political cause to have a protest? Good enough for me to have a hundred people around to my birthday party then". And there's the problem, it gave the green light to wider breaking of the rules.

Note that I'd say the exact same thing regardless of who ran the protest or what issue they're protesting about. The problem is the mass gathering as such, as distinct from their message.

 

[Sdajii]

Victoria might have an overall statewide average density that's higher but people don't live evenly distributed across the state.

As I said, Sydney is the second contender and not surprisingly has had the second highest amount of issues. Sydney has a milder winter climate and the surrounding area is very relevant; Melbourne has a worse situation with satellite towns. Melbourne also has far more lower generation Australians with far more Chinese, so started out with a higher number of introductions.

Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are all substantial cities. They all have big buildings, they all have public transport and so on just as Melbourne does.

Substantial in some senses, but far smaller and with far far fewer and smaller satellite cities/towns, giving them far smaller effective population sizes. This has a dramatic effect on susceptibility to a virus outbreak, this is tangibly the case according to any standard outbreak modelling.

Whilst very much smaller Hobart does have a CBD as such, it does have buses, people do go to restaurants and pubs and so on. It's a small city but people do normally come in contact with others and the basic requirements to spread the virus do exist. It also has fewer options for anything by virtue of its smaller population - Eastlands and Northgate (the two largest suburban shopping centers) alone would have had a decent % of the entire population through them since this started and both are completely indoor environments.

You don't seem to be aware that population size is extremely important, even given the same density, and Hobart is so much smaller, far less dense, very little in the way of satellite towns compared to Melbourne, and is literally on an actual island!

Adelaide and Perth aren't particularly warm in Winter. People wear winter clothes and use heating in buildings yes. Adelaide also gets most of its annual rainfall during winter.

You don't seem to be aware that small differences in variables such as population size, population density and climate have massive effects.

And so on. About the only thing which is truly unique to Melbourne is that trams are a significant method of transport, being either a minor thing or nonexistent elsewhere. They seem an unlikely source of the problem however given their similarity to trains and buses one or both of which operate in all cities.

Please check out some standard virus modelling algorithms, look at the important variables and how small a difference can be very relevant to the outcome. I think you'll be very surprised.

The one thing which does seem markedly different in Victoria is the approach taken. At the risk of sounding rather harsh, to someone looking from the outside it looks like a population whinging about doing what needs to be done combined with a heavy handed approach to the law neither of which are in any way helping.

The only reason people in Melbourne are whinging is because they've been subjected to the removal of their human rights to a far more extreme extent than anyone else in Australia! Melbourne has been under far, far more extreme lockdown than anywhere else in the country, yet somehow some people such as yourself seem capable of imagining that the lockdown situation in Melbourne has been less than elsewhere.

 

[Sdajii]

The problem with the protests was that they encouraged breaking of the social distancing more broadly.

In the minds of many "good enough for a political cause to have a protest? Good enough for me to have a hundred people around to my birthday party then". And there's the problem, it gave the green light to wider breaking of the rules.

Note that I'd say the exact same thing regardless of who ran the protest or what issue they're protesting about. The problem is the mass gathering as such, as distinct from their message.

I think all sorts of things about those protests were ridiculous, but you do realise that protests happened elsewhere, not just in Melbourne, right? If you're going to have a lockdown you obviously shouldn't have a protest, and if you're going to allow a protest because you fear public backlash you need to accept defeat and say lockdown isn't going to work so don't bother causing all of the destruction for little of the benefit, I'm not for a moment advocating the protests, but it's just a demonstration that the lockdowns were never going to be effective, and certainly not worth the destruction they've caused.

 

[over9k]

I think all sorts of things about those protests were ridiculous, but you do realise that protests happened elsewhere, not just in Melbourne, right? If you're going to have a lockdown you obviously shouldn't have a protest, and if you're going to allow a protest because you fear public backlash you need to accept defeat and say lockdown isn't going to work so don't bother causing all of the destruction for little of the benefit, I'm not for a moment advocating the protests, but it's just a demonstration that the lockdowns were never going to be effective, and certainly not worth the destruction they've caused.

There were sister protests in NSW that were ruled unlawful and the cops swarmed on them like flies on the proverbial. The only place they went ahead was in melbourne. Sydney is number two because of the ruby princess.

You're wrong.

 

[Junior]

The second wave in Melbourne, has all been traced back to a single family in a quarantine hotel. To say the whole thing in Victoria is a shitsh0w is a simplistic explanation. It could just as easily all be bad luck.

Think about that, it came from ONE family, in one hotel room. It could have been as simple as ONE interaction by one random cleaner or hotel worker. If not for that one interaction, we may not have ended up with any fresh restrictions or lockdowns at all.

 

[over9k]

There were lots of security guards wandering around the community, and there were thousands upon thousands of people at the protests.

You expect me to believe, that with a ~2 week lead time from infection to positive test, that ~2 weeks after thousands of people protest, we get a huge outbreak, with people who were at the protest testing positive, and the same thing between security guards wandering around and outbreaks, and it's all one huge coincidence?

 

[Junior]

Ninety per cent of Victoria's active coronavirus cases can be traced back to a family of four staying at Melbourne's Rydges on Swanston hotel, an inquiry has heard.
.....
The state's hotel quarantine inquiry has heard from Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) epidemiologist Charles Alpren, who said almost all of Victoria's second-wave cases could be traced back to the Rydges hotel.

He said one member of a family developed symptoms of the virus on May 9, and the other three family members became symptomatic over the next three days.

All four members of the family eventually tested positive to COVID-19, as did three other people who worked at the hotel and showed symptoms on May 25, Dr Alpren said.
....
"They were either people working in the hotel in a range of roles, or household or social contacts of staff members," Dr Alpren said.

"Approximately 90 per cent or more of current COVID-19 infections in Victoria can be traced to the Rydges hotel."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...ced-back-to-seven-travellers-inquiry/12568408

 

[over9k]

Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC.

Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.

 

[basilio]

Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC.

Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.

The ABC simply reported the facts of where the latest outbreak originated as explained to the inquiry investigating the situation..

The state's hotel quarantine inquiry has heard from Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) epidemiologist Charles Alpren, who said almost all of Victoria's second-wave cases could be traced back to the Rydges hotel.

He said one member of a family developed symptoms of the virus on May 9, and the other three family members became symptomatic over the next three days.

All four members of the family eventually tested positive to COVID-19, as did three other people who worked at the hotel and showed symptoms on May 25, Dr Alpren said.

By June 18, a further 17 people connected to the hotel had tested positive and showed epidemiological links to the Rydges outbreak, he said.

"They were either people working in the hotel in a range of roles, or household or social contacts of staff members," Dr Alpren said.

"Approximately 90 per cent or more of current COVID-19 infections in Victoria can be traced to the Rydges hotel."

There is no scope in that direct reporting of the epidemiologist Charles Alpren for "Intellectual BS from a hard left ABC".

Any media reporting from the inquiry would have had to report the same statement of fact.

 

[basilio]

I thought this analysis of how to address the COVID situation had merit.

A Covid Health Strategy With Integrity
It has been my consistent position that if we’d had caring, responsible health leaders in the US (and in much of Europe, as well) many tens of thousands of lives would have been saved and millions of covid survivors would have better future health outlooks than they do today.

What would a caring, responsible public health strategy be for tackling the covid-19 pandemic, you may be wondering?

I’m glad you asked. Here’s what I would do if in charge — offered in the hopes that health policy decision-makers either follow these common-sense steps or complement them with even smarter ones.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/losing-hope-focus-on-gaining-life-instead/

 

[over9k]

Ok reddit.

 

[IFocus]

Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC.

Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.

The tracing of the virus strains now is quite good and one reason why NSW has managed so far to hold the numbers still I think NSW is skating on the edge.

Wasn't the rapid Melbourne spread in part due to Islamic cultural event?

 

[macca]

The tracing of the virus strains now is quite good and one reason why NSW has managed so far to hold the numbers still I think NSW is skating on the edge.

Wasn't the rapid Melbourne spread in part due to Islamic cultural event?

Yes, I read in one article that a guard attended an end of Ramadan party, Absolutely nothing wrong with that if he did not know he was infected.

Unfortunately, many people of the Islamic faith get very little sunshine on their skin which means they almost certainly would have low Vitamin D levels.

 

[Smurf1976]

BLM and Ramadan.

That's politics and religion.

The two things which really don't go at all well with science.

Science being what's required here both in terms of working out what to do about this pandemic and how to do it. Religion and politics are by their very nature not a good mix with that.

 

[SirRumpole]

Don't mention religion !

Joe will get into trouble from Google.

 

[SirRumpole]

Is this a case of welfare fraud ?

Companies receiving JobKeeper payments then paying large amounts of it to executives.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...s-bonuses-despite-claiming-jobkeeper/12647688

 

[tinhat]

I know this might seem a bit out there for some folk, but now that we are thinking on the big scale of things, perhaps we should "hand back" and renege all our white folk stolen title to land back to the true owners?

 

[over9k]

No.

 

[tinhat]

I'm all for the revolution to overturn Torrens title land title. it is fraudulent. Let there be a revolution of land title in this country.