Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[cutz]

Where is your evidence ? Give us some numbers from a verified source.

Sadly this is very real.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...ic-violence-groups-amid-warning/12296018?nw=0

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...own-fatigue-mental-health-depression/12519698

I can only link abc sources as I have fire-walled the other popular news website.

 

[Sdajii]

Obesity should be tackled , but it isn't contagious.

It's not contagious, so we shouldn't care if people die and suffer??? What's wrong with you? It's okay if people to suffer from a non contagious disease. I suppose it's consistent with you not caring about actively inflicting harm on people in a way which is not biologically contagious.

Should we not have had such a tremendous anti smoking campaign? That's not contagious either. Unless you want to say people encourage each other to smoke, in which case obesity is extremely contagious, so your argument falls over (not that it was in any was sensible or relevant to begin with).

We have no shortage of evidence showing that food advertising methods, portion sizes, etc etc etc etc etc cause obesity. It's all very well researched and published. We know that we could regulate things and reduce obesity rates. But in the name of freedom and liberty (which incidentally I agree with) we don't infringe on it. People literally die. Many of them. Because we don't want to step on basic rights in a very minor way such as advertising regulations etc.

On the other hand, you're advocating tremendous harm being done to people (the fact that you are not personally affected by it doesn't mean it isn't happening! It's horrible that I need to point this out to you), that's actively being done to people, including the removal of their most basic human rights including the right of freedom of movement and the right to socialise, for the sake of a far smaller problem, not to mention the extreme economic destruction which is going to cause incredible harm to the majority of Australians and we haven't much started feeling it yet.

 

[Sdajii]

Where is your evidence ? Give us some numbers from a verified source.

You say the most insane nonsense and then make a ridiculous request such as this? Honestly? You honestly want evidence (it exists in abundance, redundant as evidence for such a thing is) that literally inflicting the greatest causes of depression (loss of vocation, loss of income, loss of freedom of movement, social isolation, fear of other humans in the community, among others!) on millions of people has caused an increase in depression rates? Honestly? Really? You really feel the need to ask me for evidence of this? You're actually that ridiculous? You actually had that thought in your head and it managed to make its way through your fingers into the keyboard, and you actually clicked on POST REPLY without at any stage, nothing in you saying "Oh, wait, that's about as insane and ridiculous as anything ever could be, I probably shouldn't post that"? Seriously???

If I mentioned that hot, dry conditions made a bushfire worse than it would have been if it was cold and raining would you want evidence for that too? Honestly, what on Earth is wrong with you?

 

[Smurf1976]

What point are you making?

Ultimately we're all commenting here in terms of our own thoughts and perceptions given that there isn't firm proof as to how this all pans out. In that context I acknowledge that your experiences and observations may differ from mine.

From what I'm seeing however, the reactions of individuals are almost entirely predictable. Thinking of all people I know well enough to have a perception of how they're going:

Those who tend to see the world in terms of conspiracy theories are indeed seeing the pandemic as a conspiracy. Those who look to science are looking to science. Those who look to religion are seeking God's help. Etc. Entirely predictable.

Those who are inclined to make the best of any situation are making the best of this one. Those who whinge at anything they deem imperfect are whinging big time at this one.

Those who resort to humor or creativity amidst a crisis are indeed doing so here. Those who can't take a joke at the best of times sure can't take one right now.

Those who are highly strung risk takers look like they haven't slept in ages. Those who take a pragmatic view toward life and are aware of history seem relatively relaxed about the whole thing.

Couples who work well together as a team are doing so now.

And so on. With one exception every single person I know appears to be responding in a manner that's entirely predictable simply by knowing them. The situation hasn't changed them, it has just pushed them further down whatever path they were already on.

I've not seen any evidence that it's breaking anyone or any relationship etc that didn't already have cracks there waiting for a trigger. Odds are that was going to fail at some point anyway.

That's not to say it's a good thing, only that to the extent it's breaking people it seems to be bringing forward what was inevitable at some point anyway. There'd be a point where that changes, where it knocks everyone over, but personally I'm not seeing it yet.

Acknowledged that others may have a very different perception based on what they're seeing personally.

 

[Smurf1976]

Should we not have had such a tremendous anti smoking campaign? That's not contagious either.

For the record I do not smoke.

If you wish to smoke then, so long as you do not do so in a manner which exposes me to the smoke, there is no harm to me from you doing so. I have no objection to you or anyone else smoking subject to that condition - don't do it in place which subjects others to the smoke.

Now, if you wish to walk around with a virus then I've no objection to you doing so in a manner consistent with the modern approach to smoking. That is, keep the virus to yourself and do not shed it in any confined place used by others including shops, workplaces, public transport and so on.

 

[SirRumpole]

If I mentioned that hot, dry conditions made a bushfire worse than it would have been if it was cold and raining would you want evidence for that too? Honestly, what on Earth is wrong with you?

No doubt we have our opinions and experiences. When it comes to epidemics and their effects it's a medical issue and I prefer to take the advice of doctors and other experts in the area who no doubt weigh up the effects of mental anguish and isolation against the greater good.

No politician in their right minds would impose these sort of measures if it wasn't necessary, the political risk is far too great. So take your campaign to them, trying to verbally beat me up or anyone else here is not going to change anything.

 

[Sdajii]

Ultimately we're all commenting here in terms of our own thoughts and perceptions given that there isn't firm proof as to how this all pans out. In that context I acknowledge that your experiences and observations may differ from mine.

From what I'm seeing however, the reactions of individuals are almost entirely predictable. Thinking of all people I know well enough to have a perception of how they're going:

Those who tend to see the world in terms of conspiracy theories are indeed seeing the pandemic as a conspiracy. Those who look to science are looking to science. Those who look to religion are seeking God's help. Etc. Entirely predictable.

Those who are inclined to make the best of any situation are making the best of this one. Those who whinge at anything they deem imperfect are whinging big time at this one.

Those who resort to humor or creativity amidst a crisis are indeed doing so here. Those who can't take a joke at the best of times sure can't take one right now.

Those who are highly strung risk takers look like they haven't slept in ages. Those who take a pragmatic view toward life and are aware of history seem relatively relaxed about the whole thing.

Couples who work well together as a team are doing so now.

And so on. With one exception every single person I know appears to be responding in a manner that's entirely predictable simply by knowing them. The situation hasn't changed them, it has just pushed them further down whatever path they were already on.

I've not seen any evidence that it's breaking anyone or any relationship etc that didn't already have cracks there waiting for a trigger. Odds are that was going to fail at some point anyway.

That's not to say it's a good thing, only that to the extent it's breaking people it seems to be bringing forward what was inevitable at some point anyway. There'd be a point where that changes, where it knocks everyone over, but personally I'm not seeing it yet.

Acknowledged that others may have a very different perception based on what they're seeing personally.

I can find some common ground and agree with you in a lot of this post, which is nice. The main thing I disagree with you on, and I disagree very strongly, is that this is not breaking things which would otherwise not be broken. Just relating it to a specific day to day observation that I make, as I said, I have literally never, ever seen anyone yelling or screaming or causing a scene at the local shopping area. Now I am seeing it multiple times per week, it is getting more frequent and is almost a daily occurence, I've sometimes seen it more than one example of it while doing my shopping in a single day. People literally screaming incoherently into the air, clearly out of their minds with stress, grief, confusion, or whatever it is they're suffering from. If these people were going to have it happen sooner or later, it's something I would have seen from time to time over the years and there would be an increase of it now. Clearly it's just not like that. Things, including people, don't always break. Once broken, they can be difficult to repair, very much including people. The depression example I have been talking about it a good example of this. Depression tends to hit people if they are hit with a sufficiently extreme set of circumstances, and not at all if their life is sufficiently free from extreme negativity, disruption, grief, etc. I'm happy to discuss it in detail if you wish, but it's very clear if you look at the situation that depression is being caused in people who would never have otherwise have had it, and we know from no shortage of psychology studies that once it occurs it is prone to being a chronic condition. Sure, some people are more predisposed than others, but we are still causing it in those people who otherwise would not have to deal with this terrible disease (a far worse disease than the virus). I just looked up the stats, and apparently depression has approximately a 2% suicide rate (I actually find that to be surprisingly high, but it's the figure from the US government department of health and human services). That makes it higher than the fatality rate of the virus if we include all the undetected asymptomatic cases, plus there's the fact that depression kills in ways other than suicide, plus it's typically a chronic debilitating disease. And, of course, it's not the only problem the lockdowns are causing, not by any stretch. I'm not sure about that 2% figure, but whatever the actual figure is, I would personally guess that the suicide rate from depression caused by this situation would be greater than the normal depression suicide rate, because in this case we have a huge number of people affected in the backdrop of a world which is generally looking grim, as opposed to the usual scenario where there are more people willing and able to help and a general scene of normality.

As for relationships, yes, I can say that all the breakups I've seen were in relationships I wouldn't have considered perfect to begin with, and yes, I've seen friends have their relationships strengthened. In general, yes, those personality types have had predictable responses, and in some cases it's quite comical. I have friends ranging from the most incredible 'every single detail of this is being meticulously planned by a nefarious enemy wanting nothing more than to control us and make us suffer' through to 'the benevolent government is doing the best possible job they could have ever done and I love them for it', both of which are insane positions, but yes, they're extreme versions of those peoples' general attitudes. I like your take on it and have observed the same. In my observations though, there have been more exceptions, but the general rule does hold.

In terms of domestic violence, I have definitely seen it cause incidents which in normal circumstances never would have occurred. As I mentioned earlier, I spoke to a couple of police about it on the weekend, and they were clearly exhausted and overwhelmed with it, and said they'd never seen anything remotely like what they're getting now in that regard, and they specifically said it was showing up in plenty of people who were of the type they'd never ever get callouts for and in their words (word for word to the best of my recollection) "COVID is turning so many good people into people doing bad things they would never have otherwise done". They're getting called into very different types of households with different types of people from those they'd usually get domestic violence calls from, as well as just the sheer increase in cases. I definitely know people personally who have done things out of character which they wouldn't have done in normal circumstances. Some bad (domestic issues, substance abuse), some just crazy/weird (including one in myself, buying a second car I have absolutely no use for, despite not being a car enthusiast and planning to leave the country as soon as it's an option, which considering I had no money and no stuff, even clothes, back in March/April, is a bit of a turnaround) and of course some positive things, like using the opportunity to take up hobbies like gardening or getting pets or knitting etc.

 

[Sdajii]

For the record I do not smoke.

If you wish to smoke then, so long as you do not do so in a manner which exposes me to the smoke, there is no harm to me from you doing so. I have no objection to you or anyone else smoking subject to that condition - don't do it in place which subjects others to the smoke.

Now, if you wish to walk around with a virus then I've no objection to you doing so in a manner consistent with the modern approach to smoking. That is, keep the virus to yourself and do not shed it in any confined place used by others including shops, workplaces, public transport and so on.

I'm a non smoker, but I like freedom and liberty, and I don't like the restrictions put on smokers. Personally I would generally prefer people to be allowed to smoke where I am even though I would prefer not to be exposed to the smoke. When people are allowed to smoke there's just a greater feeling of freedom, an ability to relax and do whatever you like. I do think people should be able to avoid it if they want to, and common sense should be used (don't go up and smoke right next to someone who isn't smoking, at least not without asking if they mind, etc). To have a blanket 'no business is allowed to allow smoking' rule, to me, is draconian. There should be pubs etc which allow it. There should be comedy clubs with smoking areas. I actually miss people smoking in clubs and pubs etc, not because I miss the smoke, but because I miss the feeling of freedom.

Similar with the virus, I'd be happy if people were basically free to do whatever they wanted, but with social distancing rules (don't go within XX distance units of another person without their consent, but if they consent, go to their home and lick each others' nostrils if you want to). Banning people from visiting friends is just insane, unless perhaps it was for a plague/smallpox etc type virus. Shutting down almost all businesses as we have in Melbourne is just ridiculous. I broke my phone while exercising yesterday. Today I went to the nearest shopping centre to buy a new one. Only banks, an optometrist and shops which sold food were open. JB HiFi etc won't be open for another two months. I'll be getting a friend in Thailand to buy me one and having it sent over; yet another loss to the Australian economy.

 

[Sdajii]

No doubt we have our opinions and experiences. When it comes to epidemics and their effects it's a medical issue and I prefer to take the advice of doctors and other experts in the area who no doubt weigh up the effects of mental anguish and isolation against the greater good.

Your blindness is almost so extraordinary that it's somehow admirable or fascinating or something.

The models assumed the virus was far worse than we now know it is. The experts were not weighing up all the different things against each other. This was one of the big problems. Doctors are not economists. surgeons are not virologists, and neither of them are psychologists. Each is only an expert in their own area. The job of the government is to get the advice from all of these experts, weight it all up, and make decisions based on it. In this case, they said "Oh, this is a virus issue, we'll consult the virologists" and went with those recommendations.

No politician in their right minds would impose these sort of measures if it wasn't necessary, the political risk is far too great. So take your campaign to them, trying to verbally beat me up or anyone else here is not going to change anything.

How extraordinary that you would have such faith in politicians! Do you honestly think politicians are so competent or honest? Think about what you would say about the world's most high profile politician before asking that question, and consider that there plenty who are far, far worse, even by your estimation of him.

Your defeatist attitude is disappointing. By discussing things as part of a community as we have here, or one on one, we explore ideas and hopefully develop our opinions to become better. When presented with a good idea we should adopt it, and when presented with a bad idea we should reject it and explain to the person why we reject it and encourage them to do so. Of course, we're all human and we may make errors, and discussion with others helps to identify and correct them. The whole concept of democratic governments is that people do this and then vote for the person who will do the best job. Your painfully destructive attitude is that we should blindly trust the government and if someone is wrong we should make no effort to have a discussion with them!

 

[over9k]

Wow guys, I just love what you've done with this thread.

 

[SirRumpole]

Your painfully destructive attitude is that we should blindly trust the government and if someone is wrong we should make no effort to have a discussion with them!

Yes but you are having a discussion with me not them ! (the politicians). I just point out that the need for restrictions has been adopted across the political spectrum, so it's unlikely that everyone has been fooled by something insignificant.

What attempt have you made to make your views known to the people who make the decisions ? Have you written to the Premier, your local member, the CMO or any of their innumerable deputies pointing out the error of their ways ?

I understand why you are strung out about this. You have had a hard time and I'm sorry about that.

Maybe I've seemed a bit insensitive for which I apologise. In any case we are just banging our heads together achieving nothing. If you want something done then you need to tell it to someone who can change the way things are.

 

[Sdajii]

Yes but you are having a discussion with me not them ! (the politicians). I just point out that the need for restrictions has been adopted across the political spectrum, so it's unlikely that everyone has been fooled by something insignificant.

What attempt have you made to make your views known to the people who make the decisions ? Have you written to the Premier, your local member, the CMO or any of their innumerable deputies pointing out the error of their ways ?

I understand why you are strung out about this. You have had a hard time and I'm sorry about that.

Maybe I've seemed a bit insensitive for which I apologise. In any case we are just banging our heads together achieving nothing. If you want something done then you need to tell it to someone who can change the way things are.

That was a really impressive job of missing the point and asking a question which doesn't make sense in context of what you are responding to.

 

[Smurf1976]

I can find some common ground and agree with you in a lot of this post, which is nice. The main thing I disagree with you on, and I disagree very strongly, is that this is not breaking things which would otherwise not be broken. Just relating it to a specific day to day observation that I make, as I said, I have literally never, ever seen..........

A possible explanation is where we're located and thus what we're seeing.

You're in Melbourne?

I'm in SA and of those whose circumstances I'm aware of they're in SA, Tas, NSW or the ACT. Plus I'm Facebook friends (but not "real" friends) with someone in the UK - I wouldn't say I know them well but from their FB posts they're getting along with only some minor hassles.

I'd expect that those in Melbourne are going to be seeing it somewhat differently yes.

I broke my phone while exercising yesterday. Today I went to the nearest shopping centre to buy a new one. Only banks, an optometrist and shops which sold food were open. JB HiFi etc won't be open for another two months.

I do think that not being able to repair or replace something reasonably essential, and a phone fits into that category pretty clearly as a means of communication, is going too far yes.

That alone would push some people to crime if the lack of a working phone is preventing them contacting family, earning an income or even simply paying their bills if that's their only internet access.

Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.

 

[SirRumpole]

Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.

Buy one on the internet ?

Free delivery.

Just one example.

https://www.telstra.com.au/mobile-p...Vi9eWCh3-Pg3AEAQYBCABEgI1z_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

[Sdajii]

A possible explanation is where we're located and thus what we're seeing.

You're in Melbourne?

I'm in SA and of those whose circumstances I'm aware of they're in SA, Tas, NSW or the ACT. Plus I'm Facebook friends (but not "real" friends) with someone in the UK - I wouldn't say I know them well but from their FB posts they're getting along with only some minor hassles.

I'd expect that those in Melbourne are going to be seeing it somewhat differently yes.

Yes, I'm in Melbourne. As I've mentioned several times in this thread, this obviously gives me a look at some of the worst of the effects on people. As I've also mentioned in this thread, I keep in contact with quite a number of people in QLD and NSW every day, and not many in SA but I do know people there including my sister in Adelaide. It's hardly surprising that by far the worst of what I know of is in Melbourne.

Incidentally, Melbourne is my hometown but I haven't lived here for many years and just happened to be visiting here intending on a 1-2 week stay before returning abroad. I've lived in QLD and NSW, and for the previous six years had been living abroad. Most of my friends and focus are not on Melbourne. My perspective is not as narrowly focussed on my own area as most.

I do think that not being able to repair or replace something reasonably essential, and a phone fits into that category pretty clearly as a means of communication, is going too far yes.

I assumed that it would be possible to walk into a large shopping centre with $1,500 in my pocket and walk out with something as essential as a phone (or laptop, etc). Especially in the current situation, these devices are absolutely critical. It's not possible to buy an electric device without an electronic device, it's not possible to buy one in cash. Heck, if you're stuck at home, a television may be essential enough if you're bored out of your mind and watching telly is your thing, but you can't go to a shop and pick one up. Having a situation like this is obviously ridiculous.

That alone would push some people to crime if the lack of a working phone is preventing them contacting family, earning an income or even simply paying their bills if that's their only internet access.

Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.

I think there's a lot about the situation in Melbourne which people interstate haven't thought about and don't realise is going on, because it doesn't affect them or they don't see it. Even a lot of people in Melbourne don't realise all of it. I assumed until yesterday afternoon that you would still be able to buy a mobile phone or computer from a shop. Clothing is essential but all the clothing stores are closed, even Target etc is closed, and K-mart is the only place I know of currently open and selling clothes. I know from recent experience (suddenly finding myself unexpectedly without funds or clothing, coming into winter for the first time in 8 years and being radically unaccustomed to cold weather after 8 solid years in hot weather, usually very hot) that access to clothing can be very important. Of course, I could go on and on.

Even people in SA, NSW and QLD I talk to are in many cases having psychological, financial or logistical problems, but imagine what it's like here.

 

[Junior]

In Victoria, last year, one of the deadliest flu seasons on record we saw 150 deaths. This year we have recorded, so far, 334 deaths from COVID19. And this is WITH draconian restrictions and social distancing measures. Cleary if we took no action and went about business as usual, that death figure would be well into the '000s. We have recorded ZERO flu deaths so far this year. ZERO.

The argument that this thing is mild, and not something we need to take serious action against is not based in reality. I'm not saying I agree with the current level of restriction in Victoria, and I completely acknowledge the massive damage these restrictions are inflicting on us. But I'm saying this constant downplaying of COVID is unhelpful.

Unlike the Flu, there is no vaccine, and it is clearly far more contagious and deadly. The statistics make that very clear.

 

[Junior]

I think there's a lot about the situation in Melbourne which people interstate haven't thought about and don't realise is going on, because it doesn't affect them or they don't see it. Even a lot of people in Melbourne don't realise all of it. I assumed until yesterday afternoon that you would still be able to buy a mobile phone or computer from a shop. Clothing is essential but all the clothing stores are closed, even Target etc is closed, and K-mart is the only place I know of currently open and selling clothes. I know from recent experience (suddenly finding myself unexpectedly without funds or clothing, coming into winter for the first time in 8 years and being radically unaccustomed to cold weather after 8 solid years in hot weather, usually very hot) that access to clothing can be very important. Of course, I could go on and on.

We bought a new laptop a few days ago, and picked it up same day. There is still an abundance of online options, and click & collect available.

 

[Sdajii]

Buy one on the internet ?

Free delivery.

Just one example.

https://www.telstra.com.au/mobile-p...Vi9eWCh3-Pg3AEAQYBCABEgI1z_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

As it happens, as I was walking to the shops (with $1,500 in cash in my pocket) a buy order of mine went through, leaving me with a bank balance of $80.03. I need a new phone urgently.

It's really easy to shrug off other peoples' problems, isn't it? It's really easy to suggest easy solutions when you don't have to think about anyone else's circumstances, isn't it? Life is really easy for everyone when you disregard any issues going on in anyone else's life which you haven't thought about and you just merrily assume they have no obstacles in their life, right? It's appalling that you don't feel disgusted by yourself with most of your posts in this thread. Never mind the fact that with something like a phone I like to see and feel it before choosing it, or the fact that I might actually want it in less time than it takes to get anything delivered around here at the moment.

All things considered, what's most likely going to be my best option in this situation is to get a friend in Asia to buy me a new phone and post it to me. I had a few grand in cash (mostly in the local currency) at my home in Asia, which I had a friend go and collect back in March after I had become trapped here. I've asked her to use that money to buy me a phone and post it to me, and keep some for her time.

 

[SirRumpole]

It's really easy to shrug off other peoples' problems

Really, you need to get all this hate out of your soul, I'm simply trying to suggest alternatives.

As Junior said, click and collect may be available, if you are not familiar with that, you buy something online then pick it up from the store.

One example.

https://www.officeworks.com.au/information/click-and-collect

 

[boofhead]

I live in NW Tasmania. It had tight lockdowns for a 3 week period. Enough people did the correct thing that the issue was soon under control. K-mart etc. were all shut. Lucky to have a smaller population than Melbourne. Less dense living. Most of the outbreak confined to hospitals and hospital staff & patients. Three hospitals closed - if an emergency happened some people needed to travel an extra 90 minutes (some need to travel already 60 minutes+) and this is not remote Australia. Defence Force called in. That period had reduced economic activity beyond the normal restrictions. Basically since then no community transmission. Many locally see tight lockdowns to control it and eliminate it from the community as a good thing. The day the tight restrictions lifted massive increase in people in vehicles and in town shopping.