Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[satanoperca]

Perhaps you're a bit thick. I'll re-word it just for you. "Get an effective, tested, safe vaccine here ASAP"

Well you might be right, I am a bit thick.

You second statements makes a little more sense, but me being thick can break it apart further.
1. Effective - define (say 90%>)
2. Tested - well if we follow the standard, well demonstrated and implement procedure of developing vaccines we are years away
3. Safe - the more interesting variable in your statement. Would it be safe if 0.5%-1% had adverse reactions from the vaccine that we greater than the virus? Think about it, you are obviously more intelligent than me, so look forward to your response.

Yes, I must be thick, bald, angry, racist (just hate white people), mentally unstable, agressive, righteous, loving (sometimes), I could write many more things people have called me. Please feel free to add.

 

[SirRumpole]

"Get an effective, tested, safe vaccine here ASAP"

Yes, but it has to be tested on someone.

 

[Junior]

Well you might be right, I am a bit thick.

You second statements makes a little more sense, but me being thick can break it apart further.
1. Effective - define (say 90%>)
2. Tested - well if we follow the standard, well demonstrated and implement procedure of developing vaccines we are years away
3. Safe - the more interesting variable in your statement. Would it be safe if 0.5%-1% had adverse reactions from the vaccine that we greater than the virus? Think about it, you are obviously more intelligent than me, so look forward to your response.

Yes, I must be thick, bald, angry, racist (just hate white people), mentally unstable, agressive, righteous, loving (sometimes), I could write many more things people have called me. Please feel free to add.

The whole point is to suppress the virus and get everyone back to work and back to our normal lives without fear of catching this virus and getting very sick. Making everyone sick with an unsafe vaccine clearly does not achieve that.

I'm not so distrusting of the Government and Health authorities in this country, to think that they would knowingly unleash an unsafe vaccine on the population. What would be the point? People would get sick and then we'd be in an even worse position. I can potentially see something like that happening in Russia, where the motivation is to brag to the rest of the world about having the first vaccine, with little regard for the actual health of its citizens.

That's not how it works in Australia, and in my view it's conspiracy theory which is not grounded in reality, to think otherwise.

 

[SirRumpole]

I think its disturbing that we have to rely on contracts with other countries in order to produce essential medicines like vaccines.

Considering that its likely that there will be more instances of novel viruses we badly need to develope the capacity to research and manufacture vaccines for ourselves.

Selling off CSL was probably a mistake , as has been privatisation of many essential industries, which has resulted in us being left weaker not stronger.

 

[satanoperca]

I'm not so distrusting of the Government and Health authorities in this country, to think that they would knowingly unleash an unsafe vaccine on the population. What would be the point?

You need to look at problems from several angles first.

I don't think the govnuts would intentionally impose a vaccine of the population that was harmful, but that does not mean that they are not negligent or make mistakes. Trust must be earned, it cannot be bought, there is a major difference.

 

[satanoperca]

I think its disturbing that we have to rely on contracts with other countries in order to produce essential medicines like vaccines.

Considering that its likely that there will be more instances of novel viruses we badly need to develope the capacity to research and manufacture vaccines for ourselves.

Selling off CSL was probably a mistake , as has been privatisation of many essential industries, which has resulted in us being left weaker not stronger.

Why worry about that, when no one has a vaccine that has been proven to be even effective.

I do agree with your comments about selling off essential industries.

 

[Sdajii]

It was pretty obvious by late January that there was a pandemic going on around the world.

Sadly Australia believed the politics of others rather than slamming the borders firmly shut when the need was apparent. We gained a couple of weeks of "business as usual" foreign tourism and are now paying $ billions and with countless other problems.

Classic case of saving 10c and then paying $10k for having done so.

This makes no sense.

If you do want to believe the official data, the vast majority of cases in Australia now, can be traced back to a family where four infected individuals spread it around, and the source of this came in long after normal international travel had been banned.

However you look at it, according to official figures, this virus was in negligible numbers in Australia for some time, then *after* we loosened up the restrictions (obviously after we first had them) the largest numbers were seen. There is absolutely no way to back up what you're saying in any way which makes sense. Logistically, shutting down everything without notice causes incredible problems. Realistically, it would have been responded to with big public opposition, because the public had not yet been trained to have an irrational level of fear of the virus.

 

[Sdajii]

This contribution from an Emergency Doctor in a Melbourne hospital brings together many threads on the COVID discussion.

As an emergency doctor in Melbourne, fatigue is settling in. The political blame game isn’t helping
Stephen Parnis

The question for us on the frontline, the unemployed and the distressed must be ‘What do you need?’ not ‘Who is to blame?’

I work with inspiring people in emergency medicine. Doctors and nurses whose compassion sets a benchmark I strive to follow, and allied health workers and support staff who quietly and humbly provide care to people who can be having the worst day of their lives.

Sarah is a senior nurse I have known for 20 years. She is calm in a crisis, practical and confident. She is a colleague I turn to when I find the going difficult. Together, we regularly provide medical and nursing leadership in one of my emergency departments.

This week, for the first time I can remember in those two decades, and despite our masks and face shields, I could see that Sarah was distressed and in tears.

We had a patient who had been brought in by ambulance, struggling with her breathing. Sarah was trying to find a place in our department to give her the assessment and treatment she needed, and it was proving impossible.

This was the fourth such case in two hours.

Delays, a lack of space, people in pain and distress – these are not new to us in emergency. But in the era of Covid-19, it has become an even harder slog, and it gets to us all at some stage. It is well over a month since the second Covid wave hit us, and we have been under the pump ever since.

We have learned in healthcare that to effectively deal with these problems, we must be transparent and honest with each other. We also know that assigning blame achieves very little.

Stephen Parnis: ‘We have learned in healthcare that to effectively deal with these problems, we must be transparent and honest with each other.’
What we experience at work, we see dissected in the daily news. Healthcare worker infections and isolation. Aged care centres facing collapse. The daily Covid case number, and whether the trend is favourable or not. The daily death toll, to which I hope we never become desensitised.

While I can take this news in moderation, I cannot abide another aspect of this all-consuming public discussion – the political blame game.

My emergency specialist training taught me the value of teamwork, prioritisation and a culture of collaboration. When lives are on the line, it’s time for the team to be united and focused, learning as we go and debriefing when the crisis has passed.

My years in medico-political leadership taught me that policy development and decision-making can be complex, difficult processes. All too often, the adversarial system between governments and their opposition counterparts degenerated into name-calling and personal attacks. The result: poor policy, regrettable decisions and expensive, lamentable outcomes.

When we faced the first wave of the pandemic in Australia, the sense of impending disaster was matched by bipartisan political cooperation and dedication to service – unmatched in my lifetime. The national cabinet process, rapid allocation of resources, prompt political support for expert recommendations – all led to the achievement of national preparedness that was unimaginable only months earlier.

Fast-forward to today, and that common sense of purpose has, to a great extent, unravelled.

There are many urgent, critically important issues being faced by communities here and abroad. As I write, many aged care facilities remain at risk of severely compromised care. Hospitals in Melbourne are struggling under the load of patient numbers and staff roster depletion. Businesses of all sizes face the prospect of permanent closure, and their employees are contemplating the devastation of long-term unemployment. The mental health of almost every member of the community is under constant threat.

And yet, so much energy is being diverted away from the necessary, immediate priorities.

I welcome ongoing analysis of our response to the pandemic at every level, whether it be an individual family trying to cope with lockdown, a business trying to keep its employees engaged and productive, or a health setting trying to preserve the safety of its workers and the lives of its patients.

The question for us on the frontline, the unemployed and the distressed must be “What do you need?”, not “Who is to blame?”

And this doesn’t only apply to families, businesses and hospitals. It applies to governments, opposition parties and the media.

At a time when so much is at stake, the main focus for all of us should be on saving lives, preventing outbreaks, mitigating economic damage and protecting the mental health of an entire nation.

Fatigue is setting in, but that cannot be allowed to degenerate into the political games we tolerate in peacetime.

• Dr Stephen Parnis is a Melbourne emergency physician and a former vice-president of the Australian Medical Association
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ling-in-the-political-blame-game-isnt-helping

Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.

In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).

So how can we take it seriously when medical staff are apparently beside themselves because of all this death? We literally don't have more people dying. With less people at work, less people on the road, less people out riding horses and having boat accidents and sporting injuries etc, and the entire number of deaths attributed to the virus for the entire 'pandemic', all added together over the entire thing, not even coming to the number of people who die on a typical *single day* (say, the average of last year or the year before), how can it makes sense for healthcare professionals to be at breaking point and so distressed at all this death? What death?

How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?

 

[SirRumpole]

In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).

You are referring to a country where restrictions are in place to limit the spread of this disease and show the effectiveness (so far ) of these measures.

Try to compare to a country where there are fewer effective measures to control the spread of covid and you get this.

Results There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19–reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths.

Conclusions and Relevance Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

 

[basilio]

Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.

In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).

So how can we take it seriously when medical staff are apparently beside themselves because of all this death? We literally don't have more people dying. With less people at work, less people on the road, less people out riding horses and having boat accidents and sporting injuries etc, and the entire number of deaths attributed to the virus for the entire 'pandemic', all added together over the entire thing, not even coming to the number of people who die on a typical *single day* (say, the average of last year or the year before), how can it makes sense for healthcare professionals to be at breaking point and so distressed at all this death? What death?

How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?

Sdajji, do you have any evidence that Dr Parnis is either making up or wildly exaggerating the
impact of COVID 19 illnesses on the current Victorian health system ?

Because otherwise, in my observation, your response to Dr Parnis is pure libel.

Lets look at it thanks.
https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/dr-stephen-parnis/12111468

 

[Sdajii]

You are referring to a country where restrictions are in place to limit the spread of this disease and show the effectiveness (so far ) of these measures.

Try to compare to a country where there are fewer effective measures to control the spread of covid and you get this.

Were you deliberately trying to totally miss the point, or are you being obtuse?

I was talking about the propaganda coming from within Australia, for Australians. That propaganda is saying that healthcare workers are overwhelmed by the incredible mass of death they are dealing with, unable to cope.

I was pointing out that the death rate has not increased. The total number of deaths of the virus in Australia, were these workers are, has not even reached the number of deaths of a single normal day in Australia.

The majority of those few deaths has been elderly people. Elderly people routinely die. This is the reality, whether you freak out or panic or think it's a nightmare or don't care at all or are sadistic enough to enjoy it, it's what always happens.

So, it makes no sense to say that healthcare workers in Australia are overwhelmed with novel devastation occurring in Australia.

Your comments are irrelevant, whether you just didn't bother to read or think, or whether you're deliberately trying to misrepresent the situation.

 

[Sdajii]

Sdajji, do you have any evidence that Dr Parnis is either making up or wildly exaggerating the
impact of COVID 19 illnesses on the current Victorian health system ?

Because otherwise, in my observation, your response to Dr Parnis is pure libel.

Lets look at it thanks.
https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/dr-stephen-parnis/12111468

I literally just explained how blatant it is!

How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?

There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?

 

[Knobby22]

How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?

Here is some more to rile you. 600,000 sufferers of post Covid syndrome in the UK after approximately 7% of the population has now caught it.
https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads...d-573775?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

The nations that have let this infect their population are going to suffer long term consequences including reducing their countries competitive position and GDP in the long term. Norway, South Korea, NZ even us, are in a much better position.

 

[Sdajii]

Here is some more to rile you. 600,000 sufferers of post Covid syndrome in the UK after approximately 7% of the population has now caught it.
https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads...d-573775?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

The nations that have let this infect their population are going to suffer long term consequences including reducing their countries competitive position and GDP in the long term. Norway, South Korea, NZ even usetc. are in a much better position.

This is unrelated to what I was saying.

Having said that, the UK has had a total number of cases of around half the number of people you are saying are suffering from "post Covid (sic) syndrome"

Pretty impressive considering the majority of people who catch it get little to no symptoms and no permanent issues, but somehow double the number of people who catch it have symptoms. Nice story, bro, needs more dragons though.

 

[satanoperca]

It seems so hard for people to do basic research these days, we are no longer a clever country, but rather full of idiots! Harsh statement : YES

Population clock

• 
  On 19 August 2020 at 01:50:52 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:
  
  
  25,649,401

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2019 and assumes growth since then of:

• one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
• one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds,
• one person arriving to live in Australia every 3 minutes and 58 seconds,
• one Australian resident leaving Australia to live overseas every 7 minutes and 5 seconds, leading to
• an overall total population increase of one person every 2 minutes and 37 seconds.

These assumptions are consistent with figures released in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2019 (cat. no. 3101.0).

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs...1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument


Now let's just play a little numbers game, basic maths.

For the last 7 months we have had 400 deaths due to Covid,

That would amount to a death every? Take a guess before looking further .............
.
.
.
.
.
.
Every 756 minutes or 12+hours

But wait, there is more, just not a free set of steak knives, according the abs stats, 232 people, who had friends, parents, sisters, brothers and maybe children died in the same time period.

But somehow, the vast majority of people seem to think, actually cannot think, that they (their physical bodies) just evaporated on this earth, they did not die from disease or viruses or anything else, GOD came down and took them to heaven.

The human race is f---kd.

 

[Junior]

I literally just explained how blatant it is!

How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?

There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?

My wife is a nurse, and she works with in a COVID ward with patients who have the virus.

This is not propaganda.

It's not about the number of deaths, as you point out we have kept this under control in Australia. Although, clearly the number of deaths would go through the roof without the measures we have been employing here.

It's about the fact, that this is a new, unknown virus, with no vaccine, which is highly contagious. Hospital staff have to wear gowns, masks and faceshields for 10 hours straight, usually with one short break where you get to take the gear off and get some air for 20 minutes (in a small break room, not outside). They can barely have a drink of water or take a piss, as you need to carefully remove & dispose of all PPE so as not to spread the germs onto your skin and other surfaces, and then go and put on a whole fresh set.

You are dealing with patients who are completely isolated from family and terrified, where hospital staff need to minimize interactions with their patients, and when they are interacting with the patient they are yelling through face masks & shields.

Major hospitals in Australia is in a constant state of being near capacity in normal times. You add in this new virus, and the new heightened procedures around PPE and isolating infected patients, and then add in hospital staff who are taking far more leave than normal (and being forced to isolate every time they get a mild cold and are waiting on COVID test results). On top of that, aged care residents have been relocated into the hospital. Add up all these factors, and the hospitals in Melbourne are straining under the pressure.

It's not propoganda, it's what is happening in the real world. Unless you work in a major Melbourne hospital, then you wouldn't know.

 

[SirRumpole]

Your comments are irrelevant, whether you just didn't bother to read or think, or whether you're deliberately trying to misrepresent the situation.

You should know, you are pretty good at that.

Deaths are only part of the story.

A lot of people who eventually recover from covid spend a long time in hospital , some on ventilators others just very sick. It's inevitable that some of the patients will transmit the disease to doctors & nurses who will then have to take time off and be replaced if possible. If they can't be replaced then the burden falls on the remaining staff.

I can imagine (unlike you who seems to be completely uncaring about the condition of those with the disease and have made many obnoxious comments vastly offensive to the people who have suffered with this disease and the relatives of those who have died) that the staff shortages and extra workload imposed on the medical staff would have an extremely debilitating effect on those medical staff trying to deal with the problem as well as all the other diseases they have to deal with every day.

Your attitude towards those dedicated people is truly disgusting. You accuse others of insensitively to those who are suffering a temporary loss of liberty but you yourself are one of the most uncaring creatures towards those suffering real illness and loss.

I've had enough of you. Pi$$ off.

 

[Sdajii]

My wife is a nurse, and she works with in a COVID ward with patients who have the virus.

This is not propaganda.

It's not about the number of deaths, as you point out we have kept this under control in Australia. Although, clearly the number of deaths would go through the roof without the measures we have been employing here.

It's about the fact, that this is a new, unknown virus, with no vaccine, which is highly contagious. Hospital staff have to wear gowns, masks and faceshields for 10 hours straight, usually with one short break where you get to take the gear off and get some air for 20 minutes (in a small break room, not outside). They can barely have a drink of water or take a piss, as you need to carefully remove & dispose of all PPE so as not to spread the germs onto your skin and other surfaces, and then go and put on a whole fresh set.

You are dealing with patients who are completely isolated from family and terrified, where hospital staff need to minimize interactions with their patients, and when they are interacting with the patient they are yelling through face masks & shields.

Major hospitals in Australia is in a constant state of being near capacity in normal times. You add in this new virus, and the new heightened procedures around PPE and isolating infected patients, and then add in hospital staff who are taking far more leave than normal (and being forced to isolate every time they get a mild cold and are waiting on COVID test results). On top of that, aged care residents have been relocated into the hospital. Add up all these factors, and the hospitals in Melbourne are straining under the pressure.

It's not propoganda, it's what is happening in the real world. Unless you work in a major Melbourne hospital, then you wouldn't know.

This is 100% off topic and does not address the concepts you are responding to.

 

[basilio]

I literally just explained how blatant it is!

How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?

There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?

Sadiji, you take ignorance and arrogance to absolutely heroic levels.

What Dr Parnis was highlighting is quite on par with the experience reported by ASF posters who work in hospitals in Victoria as well as those overseas.

Specifically in Victoria the hospital system has been severely stressed in the past 4-6 weeks with the surge in COVID cases. These have been the hundreds of people affected through nursing homes as well as the broader community

At the same time as they were dealing with this surge hospital staff including doctors have been falling sick and dying from COVID. That certainly won't help how they feel.

I posted this story in full and bolded particular parts specifically to show that Dr Parnis recognises the broader mental health and economic issues around COVID.

Your disrespect for Dr Parnis and inability to recognise POV that actually support your concerns aren't doing you any favours.

 

[Junior]

Sdajii, I was responding to your post below, where you claimed that it's "propaganda", that someone who works in a hospital would talk about the pressures they are currently under. As I explained before, I have real world knowledge of this, and you very clearly don't.

Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.

In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).

So how can we take it seriously when medical staff are apparently beside themselves because of all this death? We literally don't have more people dying. With less people at work, less people on the road, less people out riding horses and having boat accidents and sporting injuries etc, and the entire number of deaths attributed to the virus for the entire 'pandemic', all added together over the entire thing, not even coming to the number of people who die on a typical *single day* (say, the average of last year or the year before), how can it makes sense for healthcare professionals to be at breaking point and so distressed at all this death? What death?

How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?