IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Bullsh---t. Try 10-50% of the population has been exposed and >10% has been infected but asymptomatic
Covid is not exactly a brand new extra terrestrial virus, just the latest of many corona viruses; it is not 100% sure, but you can take a fair bet that overall it will behave like the others, which means: mostly harmless if you recover..but not fully: even flu can destroy you well past the initial infection;I personally wouldn't take it that far (though of course you have every right to) but my underlying concern, the "big" one, is this really.
If I skydive, ski, ride horses, ride motorbikes or whatever well again there are risks in that something could go wrong which injures or kills me. Known risks which I can choose to take or not take.
If I fail to exercise, eat too much sugar, smoke or whatever well then there are known consequences from that from a statistical perspective. Further, I can choose to exercise or not exercise, smoke or not smoke, and sugar is at least largely avoidable if one chooses to avoid it. We can scale that up to 1000, 10,000, 1 million or however many people and say that if they all smoke regularly or don't exercise or whatever then x number of them will die because of that and y will suffer a non-death but significant health consequence and z will avoid meaningful impacts.
Now the problem with COVID-19 is that nobody seems willing to answer the question. If 1 million people are all infected then what happens?
How many die in the short term?
How many die in the longer term?
How many suffer a non-death health impact? Of those, what are the impacts and when do they occur?
There's the big problem, it's an unknown. A "let it rip" approach might end up killing a hundred unfortunate people and beyond that really just knocks people out of their misery who were going to die anyway. It's the equivalent of two buses running into each other and killing everyone on board.
Or it might be signing us up for another $100 billion in health care costs plus double that in other costs for years to come as it brings whatever debilitating impact to the population.
It would be a real tragedy if for example it turns out that (using hypothetical but not impossible examples) we need to ensure any woman who's had it never has a child otherwise it'll be badly impacted. Or if it turns out that it knocks 20+ years off average life expectancy. Or whatever.
Now those are purely hypothetical examples and it could well be that there's nothing to worry about. There's the problem - if someone could properly answer that question, as to exactly what the impacts are, well then a far more sensible discussion becomes straightforward.
Until that time though it's basically gambling. It's akin to discussing buying shares in whatever company but all we have is a price chart which goes back 6 months with a disclaimer on it that volume data only includes a random selection of trades and is this totally inaccurate. We have no useful fundamental information about the company, we don't know who any of the directors are indeed we don't even know if it has an actual business or it's just a wannabe. We are however considering forcing most of the population, business and government to put literally all of their assets into this venture. That could end either brilliantly or in catastrophic disaster.
If the facts were known then, depending on what they turn out to be, I may well jump to the "let it rip" view. Doing so without knowing the implications would however be one hell of a gamble from which there's no going back.
That said, I don't doubt that the economic aspects are also becoming a disaster. On that front I'll observe that how it ends up has something in common with WW2. If we go down the "Germany" track and start over with new industries and so on then ultimately we'll emerge stronger because of this despite a major setback in the short term. If we go down the "UK" track and try and prop up what were already tired old business models into the future then we're in for a world of pain for a long time to come.
Your last point is interesting about the new industry vs rebuild old; valid point indeed, if this is what that Reset/scam/emergency is all about?
If we go down the "Germany" track and start over with new industries and so on then ultimately we'll emerge stronger because of this despite a major setback in the short term.
Agree it is a shame the last PM to try this faced a push back from both own party and the votersRegardless of the arguments for or against the severity of the virus, lockdowns etc I can definitely see an advantage being gained by those countries or regions within countries which correctly identify the future and grab it rather than trying to revive something that's going to struggle at best.
If we go back almost 30 years to the last recession then the "correct" approach was to embrace a future which was very different to the past prior to that time.
A smart move then was ditch anything relating to manufacturing, conglomerates, media, anything formal and so on and instead embrace services, outsourcing, IT and anything casual.
We can see differences there even within Australia. Eg Adelaide and Perth were virtually identical on most measures 30 years ago but one with its reliance on manufacturing has struggled relative to the other in a resources-driven economy. That's not a prediction for the future, if manufacturing revives then the reverse may well be true, but it's an observation of what happened last time.
If an industry has run aground due to COVID-19 and isn't going to do well in the new era then instead of pouring a fortune into trying to prop up a dead concept it would be far better to invest in something that's going to be a growing thing in the future.
It's like an old car really. If it's roadworthy and runs then continuing to drive it is one thing but if it gets damaged well then spending serious $ repairing it doesn't make sense.
A great boost for the day DF :-(and for something more cheery:
The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down
https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/
Paul Keating will eventually become canonized as prophet... Banana Republic, indeed.Basilio,
Lets look at it reasonably, working from home you require :
Now lets look at what type of work that can be done in regional Australia or suburbs:
- A chair and desk, no doubt made in China
- A screen and computer - made in China or South Korea
- Software - maybe the US, windows or OS
- Business software - gsuite or microsoft - Offshore again.
- An internet connect - finally something rather local
- Search engines - mainly Google
- Admin work - offshore to the Philippines - matches closely with our time zone and english speaking
- Graphic Design - little harder as it requires creativity, by try Mexico, Italy, Germany, US
- Software Development - take your pick of countries that this can be done in.
- VA/PA - again plenty of countries to work with, I prefer the Philipines myself
- Engineering - soviet states, Russia, Ukraine
- Architecture/drafting - architecture
- IT support - take your pick again
- Ecommerce marketing, Paid (PPC) and SEO (onpage and offpage) - again there are several countries that can do this for less than Australian's.
- Accountancy - my pick is Malaysia for various reason
- Communication tools - Skype, Hangouts, Zoom - ah again overseas companies
One that only developers use : JIRA, Australian company, all payments made to overseas bank accounts.
So where I am coming from, anything that can be done at home in Australia can just as easily be done overseas.
The only reason why bosses have not always chosen to offshore services, is their lack of willingness and skills to manage remote teams, BUT this is going to change due to the shut downs.
Why do I say all of this, as I live it.
Where do I need to work/physically - anywhere, just need my trusty laptop and an internet connection.
- Backend development team in Hanoi- Vietnam
- Frontend development team in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam
- UI/UX design team in Ho Chi Minh City
- Support team for word press and ecommerce platforms - Bangladesh
- Virtual Assistant - Philippines
- Off Page SEO employees (2) - Philiphines
- Graphic Design team - India
This has been going on for years, but the change/trend is going to increase significantly in Australia due to the virus.
Yeah but we all know that equal qualification does not mean equal skill. You know, on account of all the foreign students who simply buy their degrees.How many of the millions of people currently working from home will ever get back to their office ?
How many will keep their jobs even if COVID settles down ?
This links backs to Dona's article on the risks of a global depression arising from COVID. (That was an excellent article.)
Coronavirus work from home might become work done overseas
Forced away from city centres to slow the spread of coronavirus, the work-from-home revolution has shown many jobs can be done from the suburbs as easily as they were in humming office buildings housing thousands of workers.
Key points:
Key points:
Could the shift be the change that regional Australia has long waited for? Or does it mark the moment Australians have to compete in the global market for jobs, with equally qualified but much cheaper workers?
- Business process outsourcing (BPO) is where parts of a company's core operations are outsourced to third-party providers
- Economists warn that many businesses will realise they can operate with fewer workers or perhaps cheaper workers located overseas
- However, some companies are onshoring rather than offshoring during the COVID-19 crisis, with Westpac bringing back 1,000 call centre jobs from overseas
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/covid-work-from-home-might-become-work-done-overseas/12542354
Yeah but we all know that equal qualification does not mean equal skill. You know, on account of all the foreign students who simply buy their degrees.
I know more than a few people that have stuff done overseas only as a cost thing - in their words, it's "a good thing they're so cheap because they're pretty hopeless". Indian accountants come to mind.
It won't take long before they simply aren't cheap enough to be worth the headache. Even chinese wages are like 10x what they were a generation ago.
Everybody knows that the foreign students purchase their degrees. Hell, I even had a lecturer tell us (off the record) that he's failed foreign students only to have his superiors come in over the top of him and pass them. ****, four corners even did a big thing on this a while ago when a few whistleblowers came forward raising the alarm about this happening for MEDICAL DEGREES.You are just a grass hopper.
Tell your friends, they are dickheads, it is not about price, it is about quality and willingness to work.
I hate white Australians, dumb and naive. I am a racist towards white people and their inability to understand cultures for doing trade.
Everybody knows that the foreign students purchase their degrees. Hell, I even had a lecturer tell us (off the record) that he's failed foreign students only to have his superiors come in over the top of him and pass them. ****, four corners even did a big thing on this a while ago when a few whistleblowers came forward raising the alarm about this happening for MEDICAL DEGREES.
Get as angry as you like, I've clearly hit a nerve for a reason
I know more than a few people that have stuff done overseas only as a cost thing - in their words, it's "a good thing they're so cheap because they're pretty hopeless". Indian accountants come to mind.
In the context of this thread, I'm seeing that what we can gain is to identify the things which are likely to increase and decrease going forward so as to invest accordingly.In a disguise,this virus mismanagement could be our chance
Bring us to the ground to rebuilt before we get economically and mentally too weak for rebirth
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