Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Junior]

I'm not sure if you're deliberately trying to misrepresent things or if you just haven't bothered looking at the situation, but their death rate has obviously not been constant through the entire thing (or since 2005 or whatever silly figure you may want to bring up for the sake of a disingenuous argument). Obviously at some point months ago it was zero, they let it run through the community relatively unchecked (some mitigation measures but no lockdowns, just let it run). Because they didn't try to contain it or have spotfire lockdown strategies like the Australian nonsense, it is there, it exists at a stable level, and has stabilised. At that stable level it is killing a negligible number of people (with one exceptional day on Friday where 5 deaths were recorded, but zero death days are not unusual now).

By contrast, attempting to play an eternally ongoing cat and mouse strategy where you lock everyone down in response to outbreaks then open back up when the disease is at an 'acceptable level' means no heard immunity happens, you never get a particularly big problem anyway, but you probably have more virus deaths overall and you have a perpetually retarded economy, social problems, etc.

It's funny that I get accused of being off topic, but I actually try to relate it back to the topic and when I don't post all weekend I come back to pages of posts where people don't make that attempt.

Here is a link to Sweden's figures: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Compare it to Australia's: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

Compare the graphs (or numbers if you prefer) of active cases and daily death count. When you look at these pictures it's clear that Sweden's model, that is, not locking down, accepting that the virus will spread, allowing it to spread and come to a trivial level disease which never needs to have a noteworthy economic impact at all, is superior. Not just economically (which is the topic of this thread) but socially, etc, and I would strongly argue that not forcefully removing human liberty and agency has an extreme value in itself.

We keep seeing personal anecdotes of people with elderly relatives. No one is saying a 97 year old woman's life means nothing, but we need to accept that the lives and wellbeing of the entire country has value too! Even if we weren't worried about the economy it makes no sense to remove liberty and agency and human rights (and lives!) from millions of humans beings for the sake of a small number of old people. That small number of old people may be important *but so are all the other people*

I don't understand this obsession with Sweden. They experienced GDP growth of -8% in the 2nd quarter. So they have way more illness and death, AND a weaker economy than Australia's. Awesome, what an inspiration!

It's all very well 'staying open', but if people are afraid to leave their homes for fear of catching a deadly virus with no cure, and no one can visit their parents in Aged Care due to a ban on visitors, what's the point?? Better to go for elimination, and then re-open with some confidence.

 

[wayneL]

I don't understand this obsession with Sweden. They experienced GDP growth of -8% in the 2nd quarter. So they have way more illness and death, AND a weaker economy than Australia's. Awesome, what an inspiration!

It's all very well 'staying open', but if people are afraid to leave their homes for fear of catching a deadly virus with no cure, and no one can visit their parents in Aged Care due to a ban on visitors, what's the point?? Better to go for elimination, and then re-open with some confidence.

..only to have the virus rip through the community later anyway, so then you'll get a double negative effect on the economy.

Elimination is a pipe dream, unless of course we create fortress Australia. No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports. Have the navy patrolling our waters and blowing the s*** out of anyone trying to arrive here by boat.

Lovely stuff, komrade. All we need then is a "Dear Leader" to complete the scenario. I hear Dan is auditioning for the job.

 

[SirRumpole]

No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports.

The virus is spread by people not goods.

So confine the ship's crew to their quarters and do the unloading with local labour and appropriate precautions.

 

[wayneL]

The virus is spread by people not goods.

So confine the ship's crew to their quarters and do the unloading with local labour and appropriate precautions.

With the Gestapo at ports to ensure no fraternization? No medical evacuation, say for injuries or other non covid emergency treatment?

Let the foreign heathen die on board?

No deliveries of supplies, food, water, etc?

It can't work that way you cannot avoid human contact altogether.

 

[over9k]

Cautiously optimistic that victoria's peaked. Long way to go though.



And in completely unsurprising news:



Kogan's bounced 6% just this morning.

 

[over9k]

Further drop today, but more deaths. 14/19 of them were old farts in nursing homes though (apparently it's finally hit the nursing homes and is now ripping through them like wildfire).

I've noticed that the market doesn't seem to respond to deaths, only cases. That's economics for you.

 

[Junior]

..only to have the virus rip through the community later anyway, so then you'll get a double negative effect on the economy.

Elimination is a pipe dream, unless of course we create fortress Australia. No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports. Have the navy patrolling our waters and blowing the s*** out of anyone trying to arrive here by boat.

Lovely stuff, komrade. All we need then is a "Dear Leader" to complete the scenario. I hear Dan is auditioning for the job.

Maybe you're right. However the evidence is that NZ so far, have shown that elimination can work. Same with most of Australia. We'll see.

 

[satanoperca]

Lets get down to economics, well business operating and not being behold to saving a few to sacrifice many.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...r/news-story/98ba1421a11420c04b3548efcf856384

I wonder how many people would have different views if there was no Jobkeeper or Jobseeker to support them?

Tired of the crap that a life should be saved regardless of the cost, wake up, that is not reality.

This virus is just part of the eco system, we work with it or we will destroy many lives to save a few.

The economics are quite simple, a life is not worth > $2M, if it is, let the individual pay.

Getting tired of those that live in glass houses.

 

[Sdajii]

Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.

This sums up the problem we now have. They were wrong in such a spectacular way that they can not admit to it. They weren't just wrong, they were sold a lie. The economy has been devastated for worse than nothing. For a politician to admit they made that mistake is more or less impossible, they we must continue to suffer while they double down on their own mistake to save face.

A vaccine (it doesn't need to be effective) will probably be the way they save face. They can either pass the buck and say it's not as effective as they were promised, or say that it was all worthwhile because without the vaccine things would have been so much worse, or since it's not going to be all that bad anyway (this isn't a particularly devastating virus even with no mitigation efforts) they can say 'hooray, it's all a success which was worthwhile' and go back to not trying to horrify the nation when half a dozen people in their late 80s who have been bed ridden for six months in nursing homes die, along with an obese guy in mid 50s who was suffering from heart disease.

The elephant in the room is that these sorts of deaths do not have a material effect on the economy. The only thing harming the economy in any country in a substantial way is the measures taken, not the virus, including where no significant mitigation efforts are being used.

 

[Sdajii]

I’ll finish with the famous words of Teddy Roosevelt. Words that Dan, and all our leaders, probably need right now:

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.
The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood… who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

By this line of thinking we should all be praising Hitler and Pol Pot.

There is a time when people do a bad enough job that criticism is valid. To blindly say that our leaders should not be criticised because they are our leaders is dangerous and stupid.

 

[over9k]

Nobody cares. We're here to talk about what WILL happen and its effects.

You want to spew your personal opinion, take it to the bickering & whining thread.

 

[Junior]

A vaccine (it doesn't need to be effective) will probably be the way they save face. They can either pass the buck and say it's not as effective as they were promised, or say that it was all worthwhile because without the vaccine things would have been so much worse, or since it's not going to be all that bad anyway (this isn't a particularly devastating virus even with no mitigation efforts) they can say 'hooray, it's all a success which was worthwhile' and go back to not trying to horrify the nation when half a dozen people in their late 80s who have been bed ridden for six months in nursing homes die, along with an obese guy in mid 50s who was suffering from heart disease.

You seem to have quite a disdain for the elderly.

19 deaths in Melbourne in the past 24 hours. 634 are so ill with COVID they have been hospitalised, of those, 43 are in ICU. Again, these are the stats WITH hardcore restrictions. Those numbers would blow out very quickly if we were to pretend there is no problem.

As previously noted, my wife works in a Covid ward at Monash. So trying to say the numbers are BS, exaggerated, COVID is just the flu etc. won't fly. I hear first-hand stories from the hospital.

 

[satanoperca]

You seem to have quite a disdain for the elderly.

Come on, he does not. Read the posts, stop being so stupid. At some stage, we will all die.

19 deaths, big deal, we have a population of 4.3million in Melbourne, are those 4.3million never to die.

What do you find acceptable is the acceptable level of daily deaths for Victorian's.

Face reality.

Back to the subject, yes this virus is going to cause untold economic damage due to solely the ignorance of individuals about life.

 

[boofhead]

At the start I expected the property prices to be lower than they are now. Seems plenty of property is being sold still. Probably a combination of government support so less fire-sales (maybe they come next year) and some people with enough reserves to invest more. Seems any time there is a financial issue like recessions etc. the better off folks eventually get more ahead.

 

[over9k]

That's because the interest rate gets dumped, which makes borrowing cheaper (easier, i.e people can borrow more) and so prices of stuff like housing gets bid up.

You halve the interest rate, people can borrow (roughly) twice as much. It's literally that simple.

 

[wayneL]

That's because the interest rate gets dumped, which makes borrowing cheaper (easier, i.e people can borrow more) and so prices of stuff like housing gets bid up.

You halve the interest rate, people can borrow (roughly) twice as much. It's literally that simple.

Also the government propping up the ability for people to be able to pay or defer their mortgages, therefor no forced selling yet.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the government pull out even more measures to prop up the property market as a path remaining we don't have any other substantive economy.

 

[over9k]

You need only look at what the politicians are invested in to know what the government is going to do.

 

[IFocus]

Obviously at some point months ago it was zero, they let it run through the community relatively unchecked (some mitigation measures but no lockdowns, just let it run). Because they didn't try to contain it or have spotfire lockdown strategies like the Australian

Sdajii its embarrassing what you are saying ins't and never has been the policy of the Swedish Department responsible for dealing with the virus.

Before you continue please, please read about the measures taken by the Swedes which were and still are significant.

Please also understand the levels of infection reached in Sweden based on evidence not antidote accounts as you seem intent on repeating.

Also please understand Sweden just like Australia are still exposed to a 2nd wave they do repeat do not have heard immunity.

Again the Swedish economy is toast with a very high death count unlike Taiwan which you would do well to read up on as it directly contradicts most of you positions.

 

[Junior]

Come on, he does not. Read the posts, stop being so stupid. At some stage, we will all die.

19 deaths, big deal, we have a population of 4.3million in Melbourne, are those 4.3million never to die.

What do you find acceptable is the acceptable level of daily deaths for Victorian's.

Face reality.

Back to the subject, yes this virus is going to cause untold economic damage due to solely the ignorance of individuals about life.

Well, he made a comment about 7 people in aged care dying, and making a big deal about that. So I pointed out that 19 people have died, in one city, IN ONE DAY alone.

You say that it's a large population, and 19 is no big deal. I agree with you, 19 is bugger all in the context of 6 million Victorians. The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.

The data coming out of New York, and other areas where COVID was off the leash, show significant numbers of excess death, i.e. far more people dying, compared with the same time last year. Clear evidence that this virus will kill. Likewise, there are many stories of hospitals, and then morgues being overwhelmed.

I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet. Look at the southern states in the US. They listened to Trump tell them not to worry and to re-open, and went on about their lives. Fast forward a matter of weeks and they are retreating back into their homes, closing back down again and experiencing more and more illness and death.

If it wasn't a big deal, we'd have doctors, nurses and swathes of people on the front-line, telling us all to calm down. That simply isn't happening, because this is real.

 

[qldfrog]

Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.

on this we can all agree, right or wrong, they will never admit.A given