Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

Jump to new
Infrastructure spending. Governments always, always, ALWAYS spend on infrastructure when economies go bad. Lots of it has already been announced.

The thing is that china has an absolutely absurd oversupply of steel at the moment so it's not going to stimulate local steel industry. Concrete and all the other inputs, that I can see.

Caterpillar bounced on trump's announcement of his infrastructure program, but it still needs to pass congress.
 
satanoperca said:
Basilio,
Lets look at it reasonably, working from home you require :
  • A chair and desk, no doubt made in China
  • A screen and computer - made in China or South Korea
  • Software - maybe the US, windows or OS
  • Business software - gsuite or microsoft - Offshore again.
  • An internet connect - finally something rather local
  • Search engines - mainly Google
Now lets look at what type of work that can be done in regional Australia or suburbs:
  • Admin work - offshore to the Philippines - matches closely with our time zone and english speaking
  • Graphic Design - little harder as it requires creativity, by try Mexico, Italy, Germany, US
  • Software Development - take your pick of countries that this can be done in.
  • VA/PA - again plenty of countries to work with, I prefer the Philipines myself
  • Engineering - soviet states, Russia, Ukraine
  • Architecture/drafting - architecture
  • IT support - take your pick again
  • Ecommerce marketing, Paid (PPC) and SEO (onpage and offpage) - again there are several countries that can do this for less than Australian's.
  • Accountancy - my pick is Malaysia for various reason
  • Communication tools - Skype, Hangouts, Zoom - ah again overseas companies

One that only developers use : JIRA, Australian company, all payments made to overseas bank accounts.

So where I am coming from, anything that can be done at home in Australia can just as easily be done overseas.

The only reason why bosses have not always chosen to offshore services, is their lack of willingness and skills to manage remote teams, BUT this is going to change due to the shut downs.

Why do I say all of this, as I live it.
  1. Backend development team in Hanoi- Vietnam
  2. Frontend development team in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam
  3. UI/UX design team in Ho Chi Minh City
  4. Support team for word press and ecommerce platforms - Bangladesh
  5. Virtual Assistant - Philippines
  6. Off Page SEO employees (2) - Philiphines
  7. Graphic Design team - India
Where do I need to work/physically - anywhere, just need my trusty laptop and an internet connection.

This has been going on for years, but the change/trend is going to increase significantly in Australia due to the virus.
Click to expand...

Frog, thanks for supporting my statement.
 
qldfrog said:
Nice reality check
Click to expand...

I think one thing to come out of all this as governments scramble to put people back to work is the prospect of protectionism.

Nothing more to say really - I can foresee it happening and probably in a very across the board sort of manner. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
I think one thing to come out of all this as governments scramble to put people back to work is the prospect of protectionism.

Nothing more to say really - I can foresee it happening and probably in a very across the board sort of manner. :2twocents
Click to expand...
That won't hurt Australia at all, in reality we have suffered most from globalisation IMO.
 
qldfrog said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/covid-work-from-home-might-become-work-done-overseas/12542354
Nice reality check
Click to expand...
OK What?... wasn't work already being done overseas???? Its coming back in a lot of cases for different reasons.
Consider that the work is not all being done at home for a start and I REALLY think big corps ABSOLUTELY DONT want work done at home. Fall off your office chair 10.30 in the morning while you are 'working from home' you break some significant bones you burn down your house, whatever. Who is gonna pay?
It might be cheap overseas for wages, but maybe more so for responsibility, management and liability costs.
Are office environments going to die. I dont think so.
 
Long term this place will likely be out of business since paper's a structurally declining industry.

Short term though well it seems rather crazy to still be importing product when there's an established Australian manufacturer sending their workers home at taxpayer expense due to a drop in orders due to the pandemic.

Fully operational, the mill's production capacity is about 290,000 tonnes of paper per annum.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...irus-pandemic/12541810?WT.ac=localnews_hobart
 
jbocker said:
OK What?... wasn't work already being done overseas???? Its coming back in a lot of cases for different reasons.
Consider that the work is not all being done at home for a start and I REALLY think big corps ABSOLUTELY DONT want work done at home. Fall off your office chair 10.30 in the morning while you are 'working from home' you break some significant bones you burn down your house, whatever. Who is gonna pay?
It might be cheap overseas for wages, but maybe more so for responsibility, management and liability costs.
Are office environments going to die. I dont think so.
Click to expand...
@jboker too heavy in gold and a bit upset by yesterday's market? :)
many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could
 
qldfrog said:
@jboker too heavy in gold and a bit upset by yesterday's market? :)
many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could
Click to expand...
My take on all of this is Ask the Virus.

And of course it is a wise and nonsensical question at the same time. It is a good question, as there is no answer. It can be extended to the economy, worldwide and local, and to stocks.

The answer is : Only the virus knows. Going further there is obviously no answer at present. No treatments. No vaccine or hope of one apart from Vladimir Vladimirovich's Russian borshch designed to get up the nose of the USA.

So as I said in a long ago post in March. Trade with longer time data. If you trade monthly use quarterly data, trade weekly use monthly data. All the rest is noise. I usually trade on 3 monthly charts for my SMSF, and am now primarily using yearly or three yearly. And I'm buying. If the charts or prices turn, I'll cut my losses.

Books will be written and Volatility 101 in economic and stock courses will be standard pre reading. Future generations will say, wasn't it a good time to have both survived the virus and thrived. If one does.

gg
 
SirRumpole said:
I wonder how much money the taxpayers are wasting translating things for those people too lazy to learn English in an English speaking country.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...lated-to-nonsense-in-other-languages/12550520
Click to expand...

You mean something like this :

Mi chiedo quanti soldi stanno sprecando i contribuenti per tradurre cose per quelle persone troppo pigre per imparare l'inglese in un paese di lingua inglese.

Интересно, сколько денег налогоплательщики тратят зря на переводы для тех людей, которые слишком ленивы, чтобы учить английский в англоязычной стране.

Jeg spekulerer på, hvor mange penge skatteyderne spilder på at oversætte ting for disse mennesker, der er for dovne til at lære engelsk i et engelsktalende land.

Tôi tự hỏi những người đóng thuế đã lãng phí bao nhiêu tiền để dịch những thứ cho những người quá lười học tiếng Anh ở một nước nói tiếng Anh.

Sorry struggling with polish but :

Zastanawiam się, ile pieniędzy podatnicy marnują na tłumaczenia dla ludzi zbyt leniwych, by uczyć się angielskiego w kraju anglojęzycznym.
 
satanoperca said:
You mean something like this :

Mi chiedo quanti soldi stanno sprecando i contribuenti per tradurre cose per quelle persone troppo pigre per imparare l'inglese in un paese di lingua inglese.

Интересно, сколько денег налогоплательщики тратят зря на переводы для тех людей, которые слишком ленивы, чтобы учить английский в англоязычной стране.

Jeg spekulerer på, hvor mange penge skatteyderne spilder på at oversætte ting for disse mennesker, der er for dovne til at lære engelsk i et engelsktalende land.

Tôi tự hỏi những người đóng thuế đã lãng phí bao nhiêu tiền để dịch những thứ cho những người quá lười học tiếng Anh ở một nước nói tiếng Anh.

Sorry struggling with polish but :

Zastanawiam się, ile pieniędzy podatnicy marnują na tłumaczenia dla ludzi zbyt leniwych, by uczyć się angielskiego w kraju anglojęzycznym.
Click to expand...


Google prevod je vrlo koristan zar ne?
 
qldfrog said:
many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could
Click to expand...
I think there's going to be differences regionally in how it all pans out.

Long story short it's NSW and Vic which I see struggling most.

Qld, NT, WA will benefit from renewed interest in domestic tourism whilst resource and agricultural industries carry on regardless.

Tas and SA will benefit from any move to produce things locally indeed both states are already seeing some renewed interest in heavy industry. Tas will suffer a loss of international tourism, cruise ships particularly, but growth in domestic tourism will likely offset that in due course although it's a crisis in the short term given that tourism is ~17% of employment in the island state. Meanwhile agriculture, mining etc in both states carries on regardless.

Only today it was announced that Sanjeev Gupta, a man South Australians will be familiar with, has signed a deal to buy the Tasmanian Electro-Metallurgical Co (TEMCO) smelter in Tas. Key point being he's got a use for its silico-manganese, ferro-manganese and sinter production in his other ventures and he's got the needed capital to invest in it.

Sydney and Melbourne with their city-focused economies and so on are where the real problem lies in my view. That sort of thing is being outright smashed by all this with no easy solution. The other states at least have some light on the horizon despite the short term drama. Regional NSW and Vic aren't so affected, but could end up being dragged down by what's happening in their respective cities etc. :2twocents
 

Similar threads

DB008
  • Poll
Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion
311 312 313
Replies
6K
Views
362K
DB008
DB008
wayneL
The economic implications of a Harris presidency
2 3 4
Replies
79
Views
7K
wayneL
wayneL
MovingAverage
Post Corona...
7 8 9
Replies
160
Views
15K
Smurf1976
Smurf1976
greggles
Companies that are doomed due to the coronavirus outbreak
Replies
14
Views
3K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
greggles
Shorting stocks/sectors affected by the coronavirus
Replies
6
Views
919
basilio
basilio
Top