Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

I'm not sure if you're deliberately trying to misrepresent things or if you just haven't bothered looking at the situation

I'm simply pointing out the maths which some are overlooking.

Yes Sweden's death rate has dramatically reduced but it did so from a level vastly higher than Australia's.

Sweden's death toll from COVID-19 thus far is about 48 times Australia's on a per capita basis. Whilst it's possible that ultimately, when all this is done, they might come out ahead but thus far they're failing rather badly. Their performance isn't simply a bit worse than Australia's, it's an order of magnitude worse.

Long term sure they might achieve a better result but thus far they sure haven't so it's wrong to claim otherwise.

 

[satanoperca]

The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.

Bullsh---t. Try 10-50% of the population has been exposed and >10% has been infected but asymptomatic

 

[Smurf1976]

I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet.

The sheer number of people who'd need to be in on the whole thing and the ideological differences between them makes it pretty much impossible that it's a hoax.

Everyone from central banks to nurses needs to be on side in numerous countries including those with a very different world view. Not totally impossible but incredibly unlikely.

 

[SirRumpole]

Long term sure they might achieve a better result but thus far they sure haven't so it's wrong to claim otherwise.

Of course that all depends how we measure "results" . Purely economically or are social stats like suicides due to lockups included as well ? There doesn't appear to be much data on that, I would say that there may be some cases but it can't be anywhere near the deaths due to the virus.

 

[Smurf1976]

on this we can all agree, right or wrong, they will never admit.A given

The world would be a much better place if that didn't apply to most things.

 

[satanoperca]

I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet.

No hoax, it is a serious virus, it is going to kill people, just like cars, smoking (still allowed by govnuts), alcohol, fatty foods, etc etc

It needs to be taken seriously, but it cannot be eliminated, have we been able to eradicate the flu in 100 years, NO.

So can everyone stop pretending that we can and start putting in place actions that allow society to live with it and accept it, instead of closing down society and turn fellow human against fellow human because they don't wear a face mask or decide to go for a walk after 8.00pm.

So the economic impact of the virus has been made greater due to human intervention with nature.

 

[basilio]

By this line of thinking we should all be praising Hitler and Pol Pot.

There is a time when people do a bad enough job that criticism is valid. To blindly say that our leaders should not be criticised because they are our leaders is dangerous and stupid.

The problem is Sdajii is that the totally overblown argument you and others having been running against taking COVID 9 seriously is fatally flawed.

Its fails on the hundreds of thousands of deaths and additional serious illnesses suffered around the world. It fails on the uncontrollable spread of the disease in any situation where a number of people congregate. Weddings, funerals, parties, hotels, nightclubs, air craft, cruise ships, churches,

Anywhere, everywhere. That is the evidence.

It fails in Sweden. You clearly have never actually read the Wiki link which goes into excellent detail on the extensive measures Sweden has taken to control COVID 19 the costs and the consequences. The Swedish approach has value which can be assessed but in no universe is it a hands off, no cost , small consequence process.

Nothing you have ever said to date acknowledges that reality. Zip, Zilch. Zero

There is no playbook for this pandemic. The response of flagrantly ignoring its consequences and letting it rip is President Trump and President Bolsonaro play. We can see the ongoing consequences of that decision.

This may not be The Black Death or the 1918-9 flu. But nonetheless it's overall effects on all people and our society are in themself crippling if left unchecked.

 

[satanoperca]

Point 1 : Its fails on the hundreds of thousands of deaths and additional serious illnesses suffered around the world.
Point 2 : This may not be The Black Death or the 1918-9 flu. But nonetheless it's overall effects on all people and our society are in themself crippling if left unchecked.

Bas, I have edited your response to make it easy to response to as I think you are getting a little bit over alarmed.

Point 1 : In respect to world populations the current death rate is small, have a look a hunger or HIV or influenza in 3rd world countries.

Point 2: It is the same as the 1918 flu, just much milder and the world community can deal with it better.
If we allow the current crimpling economic rules, the virus will look very very mild.

 

[qldfrog]

The sheer number of people who'd need to be in on the whole thing and the ideological differences between them makes it pretty much impossible that it's a hoax.

Everyone from central banks to nurses needs to be on side in numerous countries including those with a very different world view. Not totally impossible but incredibly unlikely.

not an hoax as such, just used as a leverage . has everyone forgotten H1N1?
this killed millions (still far more than the covid has or maybe even will)
people dying were actually relatively healthy ones; young etc as the deaths were often cause by bodies defending themselves too strongly;
The answer was very very different; we all understand the initial scare for Covid, no trouble: better safe than sorry but now, 6 months later, what does justify the difference in reaction? this is where the hoax if any is;I use the term scam more than hoax.
This is the biggest scam I have lived thru, above the Gulf war weapon of mass destruction, and much more destructive for the west..but far less for irakis I agree

 

[satanoperca]

This is the biggest scam I have lived thru, above the Gulf war weapon of mass destruction, and much more destructive for the west..but far less for irakis I agree

Agreed

 

[wayneL]

Well, he made a comment about 7 people in aged care dying, and making a big deal about that. So I pointed out that 19 people have died, in one city, IN ONE DAY alone.

You say that it's a large population, and 19 is no big deal. I agree with you, 19 is bugger all in the context of 6 million Victorians. The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.

The data coming out of New York, and other areas where COVID was off the leash, show significant numbers of excess death, i.e. far more people dying, compared with the same time last year. Clear evidence that this virus will kill. Likewise, there are many stories of hospitals, and then morgues being overwhelmed.

I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet. Look at the southern states in the US. They listened to Trump tell them not to worry and to re-open, and went on about their lives. Fast forward a matter of weeks and they are retreating back into their homes, closing back down again and experiencing more and more illness and death.

If it wasn't a big deal, we'd have doctors, nurses and swathes of people on the front-line, telling us all to calm down. That simply isn't happening, because this is real.

1/ It is not a hoax.
2/ It can be a nasty virus for a minority, but for most it is not, it is overblown.
3/ it is being used by multinational political opportunists to further at particular agenda.

For me 3/ is the scariest part about all of this.

 

[satanoperca]

For me 3/ is the scariest part about all of this.

If that is the case, they have done a brilliant job.

 

[qldfrog]

economic impact: PNG and gold mine there..the only activity...
I quote:
"This is a critical time for all of us," National Pandemic Response Deputy Controller Paison Dakulala said in a statement.

The virus escaped a testing lab in the main general hospital in Port Moresby infecting at least four health workers in mid July. Within 14 days, there would be 72 confirmed cases and two deaths.
what can I say...
Newcrest may not like that...today...36.25 AUD +0.17 (0.47%) wait for the paranoiac news flash and we can get a few good bargain soon..
It comes after PNG's Ok Tedi copper and gold mine suspended operations for at least 14 days from Wednesday, after seven workers tested positive for the new coronavirus.

 

[Smurf1976]

It needs to be taken seriously, but it cannot be eliminated, have we been able to eradicate the flu in 100 years, NO.

So can everyone stop pretending that we can and start putting in place actions that allow society to live with it and accept it

There's going to be a lot of resistance to that from all sides. I'm being pragmatic there not aiming to provoke.

Business, medical, libertarians, socialists - none are going to want to accept a permanent change that means giving up any hope of achieving what they'd hoped for.

That's a human nature thing really. It'll be quite some time before most are willing to write things off be that medically, ideologically or financially.

 

[satanoperca]

Smurf, I agree.
But I have worked with business/owners, many for over 5 years, they are desperate to keep operating, which they cannot. They do not see a time when they will be able to operate in the future.

So we sacrificed many for a few.

The economic impact is going to be huge in Victoria at grass roots levels.

I have never been involved in a war, but for me this is a silent war, where our politicians are willing to sacrifice the good hearted people, that work hard and try to provide for the society, for the few bleating hearts that believe everything should be sunshine and lollipops and every life is savable no matter what the cost is, as long as they are not paying.

 

[IFocus]

Virus is affecting some more than others

Alex Jones Tells His Listeners to Get Ready to Die in Fight Against New World Order

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post...5vsVjoy2kuZPEXzhdLbSHR_IEngMt16Hp9_nJQmsTc9RA

 

[wayneL]

Virus is affecting some more than others

Alex Jones Tells His Listeners to Get Ready to Die in Fight Against New World Order

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post...5vsVjoy2kuZPEXzhdLbSHR_IEngMt16Hp9_nJQmsTc9RA

Well....

 

[Knobby22]

The future.

 

[Smurf1976]

I have never been involved in a war, but for me this is a silent war, where our politicians are willing to sacrifice the good hearted people, that work hard and try to provide for the society, for the few bleating hearts that believe everything should be sunshine and lollipops and every life is savable no matter what the cost is, as long as they are not paying.

I personally wouldn't take it that far (though of course you have every right to) but my underlying concern, the "big" one, is this really.

If I skydive, ski, ride horses, ride motorbikes or whatever well again there are risks in that something could go wrong which injures or kills me. Known risks which I can choose to take or not take.

If I fail to exercise, eat too much sugar, smoke or whatever well then there are known consequences from that from a statistical perspective. Further, I can choose to exercise or not exercise, smoke or not smoke, and sugar is at least largely avoidable if one chooses to avoid it. We can scale that up to 1000, 10,000, 1 million or however many people and say that if they all smoke regularly or don't exercise or whatever then x number of them will die because of that and y will suffer a non-death but significant health consequence and z will avoid meaningful impacts.

Now the problem with COVID-19 is that nobody seems willing to answer the question. If 1 million people are all infected then what happens?

How many die in the short term?

How many die in the longer term?

How many suffer a non-death health impact? Of those, what are the impacts and when do they occur?

There's the big problem, it's an unknown. A "let it rip" approach might end up killing a hundred unfortunate people and beyond that really just knocks people out of their misery who were going to die anyway. It's the equivalent of two buses running into each other and killing everyone on board.

Or it might be signing us up for another $100 billion in health care costs plus double that in other costs for years to come as it brings whatever debilitating impact to the population.

It would be a real tragedy if for example it turns out that (using hypothetical but not impossible examples) we need to ensure any woman who's had it never has a child otherwise it'll be badly impacted. Or if it turns out that it knocks 20+ years off average life expectancy. Or whatever.

Now those are purely hypothetical examples and it could well be that there's nothing to worry about. There's the problem - if someone could properly answer that question, as to exactly what the impacts are, well then a far more sensible discussion becomes straightforward.

Until that time though it's basically gambling. It's akin to discussing buying shares in whatever company but all we have is a price chart which goes back 6 months with a disclaimer on it that volume data only includes a random selection of trades and is this totally inaccurate. We have no useful fundamental information about the company, we don't know who any of the directors are indeed we don't even know if it has an actual business or it's just a wannabe. We are however considering forcing most of the population, business and government to put literally all of their assets into this venture. That could end either brilliantly or in catastrophic disaster.

If the facts were known then, depending on what they turn out to be, I may well jump to the "let it rip" view. Doing so without knowing the implications would however be one hell of a gamble from which there's no going back.

That said, I don't doubt that the economic aspects are also becoming a disaster. On that front I'll observe that how it ends up has something in common with WW2. If we go down the "Germany" track and start over with new industries and so on then ultimately we'll emerge stronger because of this despite a major setback in the short term. If we go down the "UK" track and try and prop up what were already tired old business models into the future then we're in for a world of pain for a long time to come.

 

[satanoperca]

Smurf nice considered post.
All i will say it just as much a gamble closing down the economy without knowing all facts. Decisions are a 2 edge sword between what you know and what you dont.