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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/9ec5816d6adc24b08d7530ab24fad5ec
Will be very interesting to see June's figures
Higher retail figures from universal universal income.
I had a serious ethical reluctance in getting jobkeeper.
This is clearly diseapearing fast as it is now a given i am not going to be able to do business with China anymore.
Wonder how many are in my situation, probably not many as I was bringing Chinese money into Australia whereas the main flow was the other way, but still not a great prospect for the deficit or people still paying taxes
 
In the news:

The CEO of the German biotech BioNTech told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Friday morning that his company’s Covid-19 vaccine, which it is developing in collaboration with Pfizer, could be ready to submit for regulatory approval by the end of this year. That’s a less aggressive timeline than Pfizer has laid out in recent days.

Pfizer (ticker: PFE) executives have said they hope to submit the vaccine for Food and Drug Administration approval by the fall. In an interview with Time magazine published Thursday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the company should be able to submit the vaccine for FDA approval in September. And Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, said on an investor call on July 1 that the company planned to file for approval in Oct. 2020.

Neither Pfizer nor BioNTech (BNTX) immediately responded to a request for comment on the apparent discrepancy. But the more cautious remarks to the Journal from the BioNTech CEO, Ugur Sahin, reflect what appears to be the executive’s generally sober outlook on the Covid-19 pandemic. Sahin also told the paper that, despite progress from various vaccine programs, it could take a decade to beat Covid-19.

“I assume that we will only be done with this virus when more than 90% of the global population will get immunity, either through infection or through a vaccine,” Sahin told the Journal.

Shares of BioNTech were up 3.8% in premarket trading while S&P 500 future were flat. The stock has climbed 93.7% so far this year. Of the eight analysts tracked by FactSet who cover BioNTech, six rate it a Hold.

Pfizer shares, meanwhile, were up 0.8% in premarket trading. The stock is down 14.6% this year, and trades at 12.7 times earnings expected over the next 12 months, according to FactSet, below its five-year average of 13.4 times earnings. Of the 16 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Pfizer, half rate it a Buy, while half rate it a Hold.

Pfizer and BioNTech unveiled promising data on their Covid-19 vaccine on July 1, which showed that all 24 patients who received lower doses of the vaccine in a Phase 1 trial developed neutralizing antibodies at a level about two times higher than those found in patients who had recovered from Covid-19 infections. The companies are planning to begin a Phase 2b/3 efficacy study involving up to 30,000 patients as soon as this month.

jog on
duc

 
sdgagsdfgsdg.jpg

I posted this in the other thread but I figured it relevant here as it shows one of the "economic implications of a coronavirus outbreak" - some sectors having a complete & total reliance on the fed.

The politicians are trying to get the next package out before the august recess just FYI for everyone :)
 
The banks are not benevolent societies.
When the repayment break finishes they will be sharpening their pencils and working out "solutions" for clients who represent a risk to the banks bottom line.

ANZ boss Shayne Elliott warns bad loans will be a reality amid coronavirus fallout

"If we believe that you really don't have a prospect of paying back your loan, we have an obligation to impair that loan and work with you on a solution."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...oronavirus-lifeline/12437782?section=business

 
They'll balance it out. The bank's far better off getting something out of you rather than nothing. They'll be left with thousands upon thousands of negative value loans/repo'd houses on their books like what happened to the american banks in the GFC if they're not careful.

Better off taking a haircut on the loan than going scorched earth and being left holding a house that can't even be sold for enough to close out the outstanding principal.
 
SirRumpole said:
I wonder how they are going to stop people crossing borders in light aircraft.
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I don't think an appreciable number of people are going to be crossing borders in light aircraft. I'm officially a resident of Melbourne. If I wanted to I could be anywhere in Australia within a few days, without needing to use an aircraft.

But yep, if people with light aircraft really want to they'll have no trouble transporting people who want to travel. A handful of people will probably do it. I'm sure more than a handful of Melbourne residents crossed the NSW border into QLD yesterday, hidden in vehicles or with fake ID.

The laws won't be 100% effective and aren't designed to be. They're designed to stop the bulk of the movement.
 
Clusters emerging in NSW; we are on a trajectory of lockdown in NSW.

The rest of the nation will also probably go into lockdown again if they don't keep both their domestic and international borders closed. More economic pain to come because we weren't disciplined enough to keep the borders closed.
 
Smurf1976 said:
I think a key issue there is that there's a reluctance to accept that "the new normal" may in some aspects be extremely different to the recent pre-pandemic past.

Different to the point that some businesses and concepts are dead, kaput, simply unviable going forward.

Those on the losing side of that aren't going to be at all keen on accepting it and will fight all the way. :2twocents
Click to expand...

People in dictatorships like China will be forced to accept and convincingly act like they love whatever measures and reality are imposed on them. Absolutely, as you say, in countries with any human freedom, there will be people fighting all the way.

The majority of people in western countries seem to be thinking that if everyone does the right thing the virus will either somehow magically disappear or that we'll just sit around in lockdown until a vaccine comes along (which won't happen, though possibly a completely ineffective vaccine will be posed as an effective one as a way for governments to save face; give everyone an ineffective vaccine and let the virus go through, then use a mixture of playing down the illnesses which will be relatively mild anyway and pretend it would have been far worse without the fake vaccine, or blame whoever made the vaccine for promising it would be better than it was, or most likely, a mixture of both).

What is 'the new normal' going to be? It's obvious that there shouldn't be a new normal, we should just be carrying on as usual, but what will the long term/permanent changes be, if any, and what exactly are people expecting?

This whole situation is beyond ridiculous. If we'd never seen the flu before I suppose the governments would be carrying on like this. When old people die of the flu, no one says "Oh my god, the flu killed someone!" we just say 'yeah, grandpa was old, flu knocked him over'. It's inevitable that withing a few years the Wuhan virus will go through all populations in the world. We can either play this insane game and delay it for a few years while cause unnecessary auxiliary damage, or we can get it done sooner and skip the insanity.

If you have no understanding of immunology or economics and you think a vaccine is coming I can understand why you'd consider the situation to make sense, and I suppose most people just assume the government knows what it's doing and have no idea of immunology or economics, but what is anyone else's idea of where this is all going?

You personally say some businesses and concepts are dead. Which ones? Spectator crowds at sports games? Community festivals? Parties and hugs? I really can't see that happening long term unless a totalitarian regime takes control of the world.
 
Sdajii said:
You personally say some businesses and concepts are dead. Which ones? Spectator crowds at sports games? Community festivals? Parties and hugs?
Click to expand...

I'm thinking that anything which had passed its' peak anyway, due to technology or simply being outdated / old, may well never resume whereas without the virus it would have declined far more gradually over however long.

Retail is an obvious area there. Now that even those who were previously reluctant, older people mostly, have given online ago it seems reasonable to expect that at least some will stick with it. Physical shop trading volumes won't go back to pre-pandemic levels.

The entertainment industry is another area where I think that may occur. For those bands and other performers who are passed their peak but were still touring, well I wonder how many will bother getting going again? And how many will decide that now that they've been forced to stop and have become accustomed to doing whatever they're doing instead, that's it they're done with standing on a stage, indeed they're done as such, and it's all over now?

There would likely be some in far more normal jobs who think similarly. They've been forced to stop doing whatever, they're near retirement anyway, so can they really be bothered getting going again? Or is that it, game over?

Cruising's another one where it's hard to see there not being at least some permanent damage. For those who just wanted a holiday and don't really care if it's a cruise or if it's some other sort of trip, well there's a lot of negative publicity for the entire concept out of all this.

The big one though, more significant than the rest, I wonder about is the concept of CBD head offices in big buildings? Historically that's been the goal of many, get promoted to head office, but I wonder if now the opposite is true? Will the best talent be seeking to avoid such places unless paid enough to persuade them? Is a CBD office now a liability rather than an asset?

As a case in point, well NAB have mothballed entire office towers and yet they're still functioning as a bank. That raises a lot of questions as to why, exactly, they'd go back to those buildings with all the costs involved and so on? Especially so if they find some other bank trying to poach their best staff with an offer of permanent work from home. Etc, same with any business. WFH is now more than proven for purely desk-based roles and any employee who wants to do it and is worth employing is going to be using it as a bargaining point.

Another one I wonder about is locations. Eg Melbourne and Sydney versus the smaller capitals or anywhere regional? The whole virus experience would seem to be a negative for the bigger cities especially and I'm thinking that at least some will want out. That then comes back to employers - if someone in Melbourne wants to keep their star employees then they might have to just accept that they now live in regional WA and will never be turning up to the office physically.

That then has implications for real estate and house prices if fewer people have an actual need to live anywhere specific and particularly in the big cities. No doubt there's quite a few Victorians who over the coming weeks will browse real estate websites looking at homes in regional areas or interstate.

And so on. I'm basically thinking that anything where there was an existing trend due to technology or age etc has just been given a huge push along.

I've no doubt that I'll be wrong to considerable extent, we're not going to abandon the entire CBD or anything like that and not every 50 year old singer is going to throw in the towel at this point, but I'm thinking that we'll see some changes with that sort of thing. If even 5% or 10% shift then that's a huge impact on things like office vacancies and so on.

In short, I'm thinking that some will adopt the forced changes permanently. They've been forced to see a different way, a way that doesn't involve them trawling through shops in search of something, working in a CBD office or standing on stage bashing out their hits from the 1980's or whatever and I'd be surprised if some don't stick with the change permanently. :2twocents
 
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Smurf1976 said:
The big one though, more significant than the rest, I wonder about is the concept of CBD head offices in big buildings? Historically that's been the goal of many, get promoted to head office, but I wonder if now the opposite is true? Will the best talent be seeking to avoid such places unless paid enough to persuade them? Is a CBD office now a liability rather than an asset?

As a case in point, well NAB have mothballed entire office towers and yet they're still functioning as a bank. That raises a lot of questions as to why, exactly, they'd go back to those buildings with all the costs involved and so on? Especially so if they find some other bank trying to poach their best staff with an offer of permanent work from home. Etc, same with any business. WFH is now more than proven for purely desk-based roles and any employee who wants to do it and is worth employing is going to be using it as a bargaining point.

Another one I wonder about is locations. Eg Melbourne and Sydney versus the smaller capitals or anywhere regional? The whole virus experience would seem to be a negative for the bigger cities especially and I'm thinking that at least some will want out. That then comes back to employers - if someone in Melbourne wants to keep their star employees then they might have to just accept that they now live in regional WA and will never be turning up to the office physically.

That then has implications for real estate and house prices if fewer people have an actual need to live anywhere specific and particularly in the big cities. No doubt there's quite a few Victorians who over the coming weeks will browse real estate websites looking at homes in regional areas or interstate.

And so on. I'm basically thinking that anything where there was an existing trend due to technology or age etc has just been given a huge push along.

I've no doubt that I'll be wrong to considerable extent, we're not going to abandon the entire CBD or anything like that and not every 50 year old singer is going to throw in the towel at this point, but I'm thinking that we'll see some changes with that sort of thing. If even 5% or 10% shift then that's a huge impact on things like office vacancies and so on.
Click to expand...

The industry agrees with you - there's plenty on record saying they're never going to return to having so many people at the office. They've moved stacks of people to working from home and it's actually worked so well that they're going to keep them there as a cost cutting measure.

This whole thing has kind of been a mass work from home trial, and it appears that the results have been stellar.

This is actually going to free up a ton of real estate now as people no longer need one place to live and another to work. I just wonder how long it'll be before this permanent work from home reality goes mainstream and we see calls for mass rezoning etc.

My parents own a holiday home in an area that used to be almost exclusively holiday places and we've had/seen (and gone and talked to) quite a few people over the past few years that have built permanent homes in the area due to having wanted to leave the city for years and modern internet, technology, remote desktop etc etc meaning that they can now work from home almost permanently and just make the odd monthly trip somewhere when they HAVE to do something face to face.

I would/will do the same once I'm in the position to do so. I think the cities have become absolute hell.

The times are a-changing.
 
over9k said:
I think the cities have become absolute hell.
Click to expand...

I wonder what happens with the CBD's?

I could be biased, I was never a fan of the whole "gentrification" thing in cities, I'd much rather history, diversity and general grunginess over some sterile "quality global branded experiences" blah blah that's exactly the same everywhere, but still I wonder.

If offices decline then that's one thing. Logically residential use would decline in the CBD too since the whole "apartment tower" concept isn't exactly getting good publicity out of all this and, of course, a big part of the reason to do it was proximity to work. It's one thing to be locked down in a house in the suburbs with a backyard or in a small town somewhere but it's another thing to be literally locked in a building.

Perhaps a period of reinvention for the cities in the years ahead? :2twocents
 
It seems almost a certainty by necessity at this point. As for what it looks like is another question.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Curious as to why that is?

Do you need to physically travel there or something like that?
Click to expand...
Yes, there is only so much you can do imagine being the tech lead od the team of o/s programmers with added cultural and language barrier.Hard and a week term .. initially with my monthly commute there, mission impossible now.
So fading away.looking now at reusing the skills etc in an oz /us more classic configuration,not for profit but give back,
in the meantime, jobkeeper keeps my company afloat.these projects take ages to come to fruition, and i am thankful for jobkeeper and cash boost as otherwise, i would have just pull the plug and close.
Probably the case for many affected people.at least i was lucky to qualify
 
Death rate in the U.S has doubled in its biggest states this weekend. U.S cases hit another all time high. Global cases hit another all time high.

It's going to get a lot worse yet.
 
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over9k said:
Death rate in the U.S has doubled in its biggest states this weekend. U.S cases hit another all time high. Global cases hit another all time high.

It's going to get a lot worse yet.
Click to expand...
It's a real time experiment. Will be useful in assessing how we should proceed. I just wish they did more testing so we could trust the data more.
 

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