Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[IFocus]

In the short term, I agree - a complete mess

As for an unproven theory. Yes, to a degree. We've never printed on this scale before, with inflation so low. But if you look back at history, there's always been an event or series of events triggering inflation.
WW2 printing and removal of the gold standard as a few of those.

There is a number (cannot find it) from which no county has recovered (200% ish) note Japan passed that ages ago.

 

[jbocker]

Locally restaurants, cinemas, hotels, public sport in fact much of the community public activity is severly affected. These are all important employment bodies as well.

Not sure I see your point bas, I see the locals attending these more so in the future, as they wont be disappearing overseas to spend their holiday $s. The locals wont be seen as 'tourists' per-se but still spending some money there. The international tourist is gone but replaced by intrastate and interstate tourists (who would have been international tourists themselves).
I think there is a market to get COVID safe tourists into Australia.

 

[Smurf1976]

International holiday travel we know is off the radar. There goes many tourist destinations, airlines and associated industries.

A lot there will depend on the extent to which Australians take holidays domestically given that they can't go overseas.

As a whole, tourism is a net loss to Australia, it sends more money overseas than it brings in, and if we could redirect 70% of that money not spent overseas into local tourism then it's break even.

The unknown is whether or not Australians unable to travel overseas will instead travel somewhere locally or not.

 

[Smurf1976]

Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
Economically this is black and white,.

Restarting I agree but I'm not sure I'd say they've actually restarted.

A look on Google and various event ticketing sites finds that if you want to go to a small hall somewhere and see an Abba tribute band perform then that seems to be possible but you're out of luck if you're hoping to be in a crowd of 50,000 watching anything major.

There might be the odd exception but a quick search finds a lot of "Cancelled" and "Rescheduled to 2021" for major events but not a lot that's happening in the near future. The cancelled events generally are cancelled as such, there's no current plan to run them at all, whilst the rescheduled events are typically for a very similar date 12 months after the originally scheduled date. Eg the closest Saturday 12 months later, etc, which for annual events in practice means they've skipped 2020 completely and just booked the same performers for 2021.

I'm focusing on major events there as a pretty clear indicator since along with international travel, they're the only thing that doesn't really work in a "bubble" situation and which hasn't already returned in at least some parts of Australia.

That said, well if Europe can reopen without having virus problems well then I'd support Australia doing likewise.

 

[Smurf1976]

It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.

Not necessarily.

I have significant concerns about the virus from a medical and broad economic perspective.

I am currently 85.3% invested in stocks.

Just because I can see a few problems with the band and their sound system doesn't mean I won't dance so long as the music keeps going.

 

[Sdajii]

Not necessarily.

I have significant concerns about the virus from a medical and broad economic perspective.

I am currently 85.3% invested in stocks.

Just because I can see a few problems with the band and their sound system doesn't mean I won't dance so long as the music keeps going.

Brave man...

 

[over9k]

And that is why it is good to be here, as a sample of people reactions some of them bright but having fundamental visceral reactions.
It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.
Not a matter of being right or wrong, but exploiting the sentiments

Exactly frog - we need to remain focused on what WILL happen, not what we think should. Nobody here is in any position to influence government policy.

We've got another at least 6 weeks before australia begins to return to normal properly. U.S is looking at a vaccine before the shitshow ends.

I'm deploying my remainder 30% cash shortly. I'll be buying some nvidia tomorrow.

 

[Knobby22]

Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
Economically this is black and white,.
Yes if there was a real chance of a vaccine or miracle treatment we could lick for a year and justify it by lives saved.
No vaccine, decent treatment available now, this is a lose lose game to adopt that policy.
Anyway.i have nothing more to add, anyone willing to can look at real casualty rates per infection and mortality rates based on various policies as fully known now.

Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.

Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness

The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.

Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.

Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.

Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.

The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.

4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.

The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.

The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.

The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.

In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.

The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.

Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.

You can read the rest of the article at

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments

 

[rederob]

Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.

Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness

The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.

Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.

Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.

Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.

The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.

4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.

The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.

The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.

The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.

In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.

The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.

Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.

You can read the rest of the article at

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments

@qldfrog has adopted a political agenda to support his economic ideas. That's aside from regularly failing basic stats and tossing out ethics.
The quickest economies to recover have much better messaging than Australia, put in place strong contact tracing after implementing early border controls, and have all required wearing of masks. Locking down hotspots and near 100% testing, rather than broad brush border closures, is also more effective. China did this for a second wave in both Wuhan and Beijing and, despite Trump's false claims, has tested twice as many people than any other nation.

I am not sure how an A4 sheet of paper displaying a letter of the alphabet stuck to your windscreen proves you don't have COV19 and are "good to go" across any border, as serology testing would be a much better idea. Anyhow, today QLD's borders open up to these mostly southerners and our State will get a massive cash injection. It's a shame the "safe" States have not all banded together and "approved" airline travel without restriction, including to and from New Zealand. I am not sure what they are waiting for... a message from whom?

The economic balancing act that respective governments are playing do, imho, appear excessively conservative. However, as an older Australian in a country which has never advocated wearing masks I won't complain.

 

[qldfrog]

Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.

Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness

The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.

Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.

Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.

Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.

The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.

4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.

The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.

The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.

The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.

In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.

The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.

Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.

You can read the rest of the article at

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments

So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.
Among the blinds, the one eye is King..hope i will not get some PC **** for that insensitive sentence.
Truth matters.

 

[Knobby22]

So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.
Among the blinds, the one eye is King..hope i will not get some PC **** for that insensitive sentence.
Truth matters.

Yes, truth matters. Hence I am quoting a specialist in the field.
You need to provide evidence for your argument instead of the usual culture war arguments which mean nothing to me. Where are your numbers?

 

[Sdajii]

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

If this is true, and it probably is, a vaccine is impossible.

So, we come back to asking "What is our endgame?"

If there is no vaccine, we are currently wasting out time and money keeping everyone locked up, causing economic and psychological damage for the sake of delaying the inevitable so that the inevitable comes at a time when we are economically and psychologically in a worse state and thus less able to deal with it.

Economics in this context are simple to understand; less money in the system means less ability to pay for stuff, including essential services, including *healthcare*.

Psychologically, it's not just the people who are emotionally drained and in despair etc (and it's interesting to see how many people who are faring well personally are quick to dismiss the psychological and financial struggles others are faced with, yet fiercely protest any damage at all inflicted on anyone by the virus itself!), but also the fact that we're going to experience an increasing amount of 'emergency fatigue', which means that people are going to be less and less inclined to take personal responsibility for social distancing, hygiene or any form of personal sacrifice. Folks in most of Australia have been quick to smugly say Melbournians are all slack and deserve what they get (even though it happened right after the BLM protests and obviously the vast majority of Melbournians haven't been behaving any differently from the vast majority of other Australians!) and they're going about their business as usual. Most Melbournians are fed up with the situation and will take this round of lockdown far less seriously than the previous one, a pattern you can expect to see universally.

We can either work on an extreme, hardline, erradication strategy (which clearly we're not going to do, it was always unlikely and the boat completely sailed as the BLM protests took place) or we can get on with business as usual/the new normal (*cringe*) and deal with things (which it seems we're not going to do) or we can play this ridiculous game of perpetual stop, start, stop, start, until we get close enough to death by a thousand cuts that we need to stop and do our best to go back to business as usual, but in a weakened state (the worst option of all, but the one we're taking).

 

[SirRumpole]

More info on herd immunity.

"Herd immunity can only be reached by widespread vaccination (but there is currently no vaccine, and it may take a long time before an effective vaccine becomes available) or by individuals falling ill and recovering thereby developing natural immunity against the virus."

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/

 

[over9k]

Folks in most of Australia have been quick to smugly say Melbournians are all slack and deserve what they get (even though it happened right after the BLM protests and obviously the vast majority of Melbournians haven't been behaving any differently from the vast majority of other Australians!) and they're going about their business as usual. Most Melbournians are fed up with the situation and will take this round of lockdown far less seriously than the previous one, a pattern you can expect to see universally.

Yes but it's not like there was uproar from the general victorian public once they found out that the protesters were going to go ahead with it despite everyone telling them not to was there?

Even now they're still in denial about what's caused the spread trotting out the classic "can't prove it empirically therefore didn't happen" bull****.

Lock the place down properly for long enough and the virus will eventually be gone.

Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.


This goes for everyone: can we please give the political BS a rest? This thread is not about our personal opinions on government policy, only what we think the policies (and street level behaviours) are going to be and how to profit from them.

 

[Klogg]

Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.

Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness

The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.

Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.

Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.

Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.

The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.

4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.

The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.

The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.

The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.

In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.

The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.

Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.

You can read the rest of the article at

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments

We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.

Professor of pathology:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now


Other editorial:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the-lockdown-is-killing-people-too/


Even the WHO promote the Swedish approach:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/


Another epidemiologist here:


The list goes on. There are opposing opinions, so we have no certainty either way. We must take an educated guess at the best path.

I will leave with this note. The median age of suicide in the US is ~50YO. The median COVID death is ~82YO.
Using the life expectancy value of 78Years in the US, the average (median) person dying from COVID has already lived longer than expected.
On the contrary, we're losin ~28years of human life per suicide.

Even if you assume the person dying from COVID had 2 years left, each suicide is the equivalent of 14 COVID deaths.


Nobody has the complete answer. Rather, we should ask ourselves which is doing the most damage. (And we should use data to prove it, not statistical anomalies of a 40YO dying from COVID)

 

[Sdajii]

Yes but it's not like there was uproar from the general victorian public once they found out that the protesters were going to go ahead with it despite everyone telling them not to was there?

Yeah, there sort of was... Most of us thought it was insane.

Even now they're still in denial about what's caused the spread trotting out the classic "can't prove it empirically therefore didn't happen" bull****.

Agreed.

Lock the place down properly for long enough and the virus will eventually be gone.

Impossible for multiple reasons. If it was ever possible, it would have needed to start back in February, maybe March. Just maybe, maybe, it could still have been possible before the protests. Now it is impossible for multiple reasons, primarily the greater numbers and spread which would delay the process several months, and all the while we have emergency fatigue increasing.

Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.

Agreed, partially. It won't happen soon because it would require the government to admit they were wrong, that would be political suicide so they won't do it. They should, but they won't. Eventually though, it is inevitable, and the longer they leave it the worse it will be. Unfortunately they will drag it out as long as possible and we will all suffer for it.

This goes for everyone: can we please give the political BS a rest? This thread is not about our personal opinions on government policy, only what we think the policies (and street level behaviours) are going to be and how to profit from them.

You mean we shouldn't do exactly what you spent that entire post doing? Gotcha.

 

[rederob]

We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.

Professor of pathology:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now


Other editorial:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the-lockdown-is-killing-people-too/


Even the WHO promote the Swedish approach:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/


Another epidemiologist here:


The list goes on. There are opposing opinions, so we have no certainty either way. We must take an educated guess at the best path.

I will leave with this note. The median age of suicide in the US is ~50YO. The median COVID death is ~82YO.
Using the life expectancy value of 78Years in the US, the average (median) person dying from COVID has already lived longer than expected.
On the contrary, we're losin ~28years of human life per suicide.

Even if you assume the person dying from COVID had 2 years left, each suicide is the equivalent of 14 COVID deaths.


Nobody has the complete answer. Rather, we should ask ourselves which is doing the most damage. (And we should use data to prove it, not statistical anomalies of a 40YO dying from COVID)

There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.

 

[qldfrog]

Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.

We often disagree, mostly on "style" but you nailed it.
Knowledge is here, i do believe it is shared with our leaders and they understand how cornered they are, so my view of CSL delivering in fanfare a fake vaccine soon, nothing better than saline solution but who will really care, and we can turn the page..buy CSL

 

[Klogg]

There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.

This is a good point.

May I ask which ones you're thinking of? We should look back in 3months time or so and compare them to the outcome in Sweden (or other countries that didn't go through 'strict' lockdown)

Nice learning exercise.

 

[jbocker]

Need to add in cultural differences (and acceptance their decisions would suit our culture), timing of decisions that were made wrt the current rate of infection, the political outlook and approach of the leader. Many others like location.
EXTREMELY Difficult to get the right answer. At the end of the day we might not get a best answer, and we suffer a losing battle regardless of our approach.