Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

Yay! I'll only talk about stuff you want to talk about if you only talk about stuff I want you to talk about!

I now genuinely can't tell if you're deliberately being obtuse or are just stupid. Threads have topics. The thread isn't what we WANT to talk about, it's what we think the consequences of the outbreak are going to be. You want to talk about what SHOULD be done, do it in the thread which is for that.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

People on the 'extreme lockdown' side may wish to see my posts in that way because they don't like them, but I've never actually said that. The fact that I think you're too far on the paranoia side doesn't mean I'm over on the extreme opposite side saying "Let's all lick each others' faces", I'm somewhere in the middle. By all means flatten the curve to a reasonable extent, but the current strategy makes no sense.

Consider this (I've already said it but you've missed it), the current strategy of mild lockdown is not possible to continue forever. This means that inevitably it will pass through the community, it's just a question of when. This was what the government was telling us until only a month or so ago! Remember 'flatten the curve'? That's literally what the government was telling you until recently, and it meant that everyone was going to get it, that was inevitable, we just want to make sure that we don't all get it at the same time. That's what the government was saying, not me. Now what they're doing is just maintaining it at such a low level that the curve will never actually play out. There is no end game. The virus won't be eliminated, it won't go through the community, we're just going to live in mild paranoia indefinitely. The virus turned out to be more mild than they expected, both in terms of contagion and severity. Do you want to have lockdowns and restrictions forever? Presumably not. So, we can't go on like this forever and we need to have that flattened curve (or, hey, we could make it a sharp curve with absolute business as usual, which few people advocate and I'm not among them).

It's really simple; this virus isn't going to be 100% erradicated. If we go back to any sort of normality, which eventually we must, we're going to have a curve. What we are doing at the moment is simply an extraordinarily expensive way to delay the inevitable, with no benefit.



The government inevitably is going to let us get exposed to it, because they can only afford double dole and jobkeeper and no tourism dollars, etc etc etc for a finite time, after which we're going to be forced into some form of normality and it will spread. It is inevitable.



Yay! I'll only talk about stuff you want to talk about if you only talk about stuff I want you to talk about!

Australia doesn't want to follow the standard world virus response, we will chart our own path to get through this global crisis.

END OF STORY!

 

[Smurf1976]

This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be.

Strongly agreed and that could be said for many discussions.

In the context of an individual making decisions about investing or trading, what's actually happening and will plausibly happen going forward and the consequences of that is the relevant issue not what could've been.

 

[over9k]

Strongly agreed and that could be said for many discussions.

In the context of an individual making decisions about investing or trading, what's actually happening and will plausibly happen going forward and the consequences of that is the relevant issue not what could've been.

So with that in mind, this is the only thing he's posted that he actually should have/is worth responding to in several pages:

The government inevitably is going to let us get exposed to it, because they can only afford double dole and jobkeeper and no tourism dollars, etc etc etc for a finite time, after which we're going to be forced into some form of normality and it will spread. It is inevitable.

What I'm seeing is everyone reopening to everyone except victoria. So far there are precisely zero even so much as whispers of this changing.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

So with that in mind, this is the only thing he's posted that he actually should have/is worth responding to in several pages:



What I'm seeing is everyone reopening to everyone except victoria. So far there are precisely zero even so much as whispers of this changing.

Let it go; many trolls around; looking for a response. We are genuine in our discussion. Smurf is good, despite our nuclear disagreement, HAHA.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Oh, you! *giggles* Flattery will get you everywhere! <3




1. Numbered points in this case are stupid.

2. I'll use numbered points to demonstrate to you how stupid it is to use them unnecessarily.

3. Your first point is irrelevant since no one suggested otherwise.

4. It's comical that in your second point you feel the need to say you disagree with something I didn't actually say, especially when my own preferred option which I very briefly described is neither of the two options you imagined I said were the only two!



5. Okay, where to start with this... firstly, we didn't choose this as a nation. We didn't vote on it. Many people disagree. The government made a decision, the media told people to go along with it, we were literally told via media that we had to accept giving up rights we used to take for granted, and most people either willingly or grudgingly complied. This is not in line with your incorrect assertion of "We as a nation have chosen the path of virus suppression"

Okay, you then say "Many months ago". I arrived in Australia at the end of February (intending to stay for about 2 weeks... ouch). In March we could still come and go, decisions hadn't been made as you say, especially as a nation!

6. Dry your eyes and look at reality, love. Nowhere have people been "dropping dead on the streets". You're being melodramatic. Across the globe we see a huge range of strategies from business as usual to extreme lockdowns. Through all of this, even in the worst affected countries, it's not a case of mass deaths in any meaningful way. Even with zero mitigation efforts, it's not like this is going to cause a notable reduction in the population. Look at the worst countries like Spain, USA, UK. They've only had around 500 deaths per million people in around 6 months and the vast majority of those deaths were people around the end of their life expectancy (literally around half already over it!) and the vast majority of younger ones were already critically ill, often with terminal diseases. In all those cases, the death rate has greatly reduced (the vulnerable people already close to death who were susceptible have mostly already died), even in cases where the infection rate is still increasing, showing that even if more people get it, which in many cases is actually happening, the death rate won't be an issue.

7. This is point number 7 of 7.

I have said some stupid things in my younger life, with no thought or knowledge; however what I have said to you tonight is absolutely true in my belief.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Locking down towers in Victoria, 3rd day now, as reported: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/victoria-to-lockdown-nine-public-housing-towers/12423012?nw=0

 

[over9k]

Yeah vic's going to have to lock down for another couple of months longer than the rest of the country. Sucks to be them.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Yeah vic's going to have to lock down for another couple of months longer than the rest of the country. Sucks to be them.

Massive to lockdown those towers.

 

[over9k]

Security should be pretty easy on account of only a couple of ways in/out of them. It's the logistics of supplying the residents that'll be the hard part.

 

[Klogg]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/tre...says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html

I agree with their treasury secretary. Shutting down the economy is stupidly expensive.

Sweden's approach is much better than just about anyone else's. Sure, they have more deaths per person, but those lives have cost other economies millions of dollars per year of life. That far exceeds the productive capacity of just about any individual.
In other words, we're sacrificing our young to save our old. We may as well go to war...

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Security should be pretty easy on account of only a couple of ways in/out of them. It's the logistics of supplying the residents that'll be the hard part.

These residents will be screaming to get out after a few days.

 

[qldfrog]

You two are arguing about a completely moot point. What any of us think should be done changes precisely nothing.

This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be.

If anyone reckons they can make an argument to the realisation of a benign nature of the virus resulting in lockdowns being lifted, go ahead. But I'd say there'd be a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.

Otherwise, this needs to stop.

Last point i agree, just sad that it has reached a point where neither @Smurf1976 , @over9k or @Chronos-Plutus even bother to try to look at figures in places where they are available:and trusted
Switzerland, France,Germany,Spain
This will give you the latest development in actual infection rate, people actually falling sick and actual death rate.todays figures are not last months one by far, yet noone was resurrected
I will just say the more you learn the less worried you get..
Put in proportion it is bad but not sure it is worse than H1N1, and economically outside the lockdown, should be more benign as H1N1 was killing younger more economically valuable people.
Just do you own research figure based and not in news headlines but in studies and hospital medical f
you will be surprised in a positive way
Be aware, be informed.

 

[qldfrog]

Actually, looking at the hysteria present in people who are usually more level minded, @over9k might have a point in his trading..the market is at least partly public mood

 

[SirRumpole]

Otherwise, this needs to stop.

What needs to stop, the virus or the lockdowns ?

 

[qldfrog]

I agree with their treasury secretary. Shutting down the economy is stupidly expensive.

Sweden's approach is much better than just about anyone else's. Sure, they have more deaths per person, but those lives have cost other economies millions of dollars per year of life. That far exceeds the productive capacity of just about any individual.
In other words, we're sacrificing our young to save our old. We may as well go to war...

Can not be truer, and Australia has nothing to be proud of, we have backed ourself in a corner...
I am really looking forward to the announcement of the fake vaccine.this is our only way out.
At least i do not need to be emotional, my life is not threatened economically..well a bit when Australia is sent down the drain...
Nor medically as i am below 70 and healthy.
I believe the response on the ASF is partly linked to the age of the constituents...

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Can not be truer, and Australia has nothing to be proud of, we have backed ourself in a corner...
I am really looking forward to the announcement of the fake vaccine.this is our only way out.
At least i do not need to be emotional, my life is not threatened economically..well a bit when Australia is sent down the drain...
Nor medically as i am below 70 and healthy.
I believe the response on the ASF is partly linked to the age of the constituents...

A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.

We will be the generation that pays off the spending spree.

 

[qldfrog]

A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.

In that case, i i c not understand your reaction: you are not personally scared yet act as if?
I mean the irrational side
We can agree disagree on smooth the curve/eradication but facts and figures ..the real ones are important..if you are in your 30s they are meaningful
Anyway, will not go into another fight as per last night

 

[qldfrog]

A different point of view:https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/a62a8cfc22cbab0cb43dabce9d48da84
Read content not clickbait title;-)

 

[qldfrog]

What needs to stop, the virus or the lockdowns ?

In july2020, this is the question, you nail it,economically AND death numbers wise