Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Sdajii]

The purpose of the stats is to show the death based on age. I expect other USA cities would have similar results with regard proportions.

Just pointing out the reality.

For those saying we should now deliberately let the virus go loose, I note that countries that have done so, Iran, USA, are still shutting their economies. I am unconvinced at this stage that they have taken the best route.The next month in the USA will let us see the results.

And you look at Western Australia, which will soon be reopening their e economy, compare that to the USA. Who is doing better?

With the USA and many other parts of the world, they may as well spread it. With us, it's not so obvious. And it's your life being risked.

You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation.

Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.

 

[Knobby22]

You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation.

Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.

But if we have a vaccine soon?

 

[IFocus]

And you look at Western Australia, which will soon be reopening their e economy, compare that to the USA. Who is doing better?

Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan will have statues raised for him.

 

[wayneL]

I officially have concussion for slamming my head on my desk.

SMDH

 

[wabullfrog]

Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan will have statues raised for him.

Yep, not much accommodation available down in Albany for the school holidays. Cafes look to be very busy as well during the last few weeks.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Here in WA, premiere McGowan will have statues raised for him.

dangerous if current behaviours roll on

 

[IFocus]

You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation.

Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.

What....Perth 2 million people, fly in fly out hub gateway to the wealth of the nation, 500,000 Western Australians alone travel to Indonesia that's before you get to Thailand .....where have you been?

if there was ever a case for a Covid epicentre Perth is it, but dread of all dreads McGowan locked down the state earlier and some but with commonsense you could going jogging and have a kabab or surfing at the beach, all the time Morrison was off to the football and on the East Coast people getting arrested for being on their own.

NSW screaming he was a dictator and had to open the boarders all the time NSW's had higher restrictions , now WA leads Australia in opening up again.

There is plenty of comparisons against the US what to do (leadership) and what not to do (die for the economy....stupid).

Polls showing WA are very happy with the situation..........

 

[macca]

There are many cities far worse off than New York that never had anywhere near the problems. Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo quickly come to mind. That's not to mention a dozen or so cities in China.
It's all good and well to promote exercise and a balanced diet, including Vitamin D, but there are no valid correlations that support your ideas.
The USA has been enjoying several months of sunshine now and their COV19 rates are the highest on record.

As most people already know, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo all wore masks from day one, here are the links for Vitamin D already posted on ASF

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...tbreak-discussion.35174/page-198#post-1080556

 

[Sdajii]

But if we have a vaccine soon?

If we have a functional vaccine soon it will be the most unlikely medical miracle of our lifetimes. I'm in my 40s, there have been serious attempts to create vaccines for coronaviruses ongoing since long before I was born. No effective vaccince has ever been created for any of them, and by no means for lack of trying. SARS is very closely related to this bug and plenty of attempts have been made to create a vaccine for it. They failed. SARS was first identified in 2003, it's now 2020, no progress at all has been made, and not for want of trying; SARS is still being cultured and researched to this day. Let that sink in.

Given your question there's little doubt that you're no biologist, but basically, there are viruses for which vaccines are easily created, like smallpox (fortunately!) and others for which vaccines are literally impossible according to our understanding of immunology, and probably will be impossible forever. If vaccines were possible for all viruses we'd have had a vaccine for HIV decades ago (just one of many examples). It's likely that a vaccine for this virus simply isn't even theoretically possible, and it's extremely unlikely that we'll have an effective vaccine in any timeframe you could call 'soon'. No vaccine for any virus has ever been developed quickly enough to be considered 'soon' by the standards of this event, even for easy viruses, and this is somewhere between extremely difficult and literally impossible (we don't yet know).

We may literally have a magic bullet cure for all cancer before we see an effective vaccine for this virus. At least a magic bullet cure for cancer is theoretically possible and we probably will see it one day. A vaccine for this virus is far less certain than one day being able to regrow severed limbs etc.

 

[Sdajii]

Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan will have statues raised for him.

You really are a galah. You respond to 'The state of WA and the country USA are completely and utterly non comparable' with a nonsensical comparison.

 

[Smurf1976]

A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.

We will be the generation that pays off the spending spree.

I'm likewise young enough and, so far as I'm aware, healthy enough that I'll be paying off the debts.

Looking at it overseas though, well at this point the USA is basically a failed nation that can't even protect its own citizens from a health crisis. To say they've failed is an understatement.

The price they'll pay isn't just the deaths right now, but that the best and brightest, or indeed anyone with much sense, will no longer be seeing it as a desirable place to live. The days of US leadership are gone for that reason - the brightest minds are not lured by money alone, such people tend to value their own safety, and many will be looking elsewhere.

Or we could take a look at China. Based on official statistics they've done an order of magnitude better job of dealing with the virus than the US, UK, France or Iran (among many others) have but they've paid a huge economic price for doing so.

That China did what they did is partly my reasoning. Whatever they know about the virus, it scared the absolute crap out of them that's rather clear. Actions speak louder than words and the actions scream that they saw it as a huge concern.

Closer to home a very similar dynamic applies. Where would you rather be right now?

1. In an apartment tower in Melbourne?
2. Anywhere else in Victoria?
3. Anywhere else in Australia?

I think we all know the answer there and the other states, especially the smaller population ones, would be crazy from a purely economic perspective to blow the opportunity that's been handed to them.

Big business needs to likewise face that reality. Working at head office is no longer the prize goal for the best employees. Rather, it's the place where you put the drones meanwhile the stars work from home in a place that's nowhere near the city. Smart businesses will adapt to that quickly. Those not so smart will lose the best employees to those who do adapt. Welcome to free market capitalism.

In saying all that, the dam does not collapse due to the flood. No, it collapses due to inadequate design, construction or maintenance with the flood being merely the trigger.

Same with the pandemic. It's not the first time there's been a pandemic and it won't be the last, indeed the next one may well require far more stringent measures than this one. Hence exposed businesses insure against the pandemic risk, hence the economy needs to be designed to cope with GDP that goes down at times as well as up and so on.

If those things are not in place, if businesses didn't have insurance or governments and central banks haven't allowed for times when GDP goes down, well then that's a failing on their part and the solution is to replace them with better managers who do have the ability to manage risk. Trying to cover up the problem only perpetuates it.

Realistically, what can't occur if Australia or any other country closes its borders?

Holidays and tours by professional sports teams and performing artists basically covers it.

Business meetings etc are doable online.

Manufacturing, mining, agriculture, freight etc carries on business as usual. Only real exception being if someone gambled on long distance FIFO and lost, in which case capitalism takes care of those unable to manage risk by advantaging competitors who can.

Anyone moving permanently could simply be quarantined upon arrival.

That leaves those on a short stay and who need to physically be present. Tourists, live performances of music or other things, professional sports.

Personally well I like going on holidays and I've been to plenty of concerts over the years but I find it unacceptable to knowingly sacrifice the lives of others in order to resume doing so.

 

[frugal.rock]

You really are a galah.

Reminds me of Austen Tayshus Crowing but I don't want to Parrot on. It's a bit Cocky, like me when I was a Myna driving the Corella.
Hey Bud,gie get my drift?

 

[SirRumpole]

Looking at it overseas though, well at this point the USA is basically a failed nation that can't even protect its own citizens from a health crisis. To say they've failed is an understatement.

The price they'll pay isn't just the deaths right now, but that the best and brightest, or indeed anyone with much sense, will no longer be seeing it as a desirable place to live. The days of US leadership are gone for that reason - the brightest minds won't be lured by money alone, such people tend to value their own safety, and many will be looking elsewhere.

Indeed so. How many tourists would want to go to the US knowing that their risks of getting the virus is so high ?

How many businesses would want to start up there if they have to go into lockdown every few months or their employees keep getting sick ?

And as you point out , the brain drain may start to reverse and the best and brightest will look for safe havens like Australia. Businesses will invest where they can get a healthy worforce.

So, our strategy may pay off in the long run. Short term pain for long term gain is often a successful ploy.

 

[over9k]

Nah, not a chance of that happening.







The U.S will soon be not just the largest consumer market, but the only one. The only thing the virus will have done at most is delay the inevitable.

 

[jbocker]

Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan will have statues raised for him.

ALL Perth office staff are back in office at Woodside. A top 20 ASX company.

 

[over9k]

Economic implications of an outbreak:

All activities which can be done by distance, now are. As a result, Amazon cracks the $3000 mark today. All the other stay-at-home tech like zoom, crowdstrike, ebay, paypal, adobe (and so on) take off like a gunshot, head & shoulders above everything else. They gain the most on the green days and lose the least (or even continue to gain) on the red days.

Really no more complex than that.

 

[Sdajii]

Indeed so. How many tourists would want to go to the US knowing that their risks of getting the virus is so high ?

How many businesses would want to start up there if they have to go into lockdown every few months or their employees keep getting sick ?

And as you point out , the brain drain may start to reverse and the best and brightest will look for safe havens like Australia. Businesses will invest where they can get a healthy worforce.

So, our strategy may pay off in the long run. Short term pain for long term gain is often a successful ploy.

This is the epitome of short term thinking. If you've worked hard to keep the virus out, you have permanently backed yourself into a corner where you can not allow people in until you admit you were wrong and let people in, at which time the virus can spread. See, that's the thing about keeping it virus free - it's only a short term solution. No one is going to go anywhere on holiday if they need to spend the first two weeks locked up in isolation, it's a huge limit on people coming in to work. So, talking about where you'd rather be in the way you are is meaningless, because effectively no one is going to be able to go to those places. The places which have had the virus go through though, they'll be unaffected by new arrivals. Other than in the very short term I'd much rather be part of a 'we can do whatever we like without fear' bubble than a 'we are going to be perpetually stepping on eggshells and facing the possibility of yet another lockdown' place.

 

[over9k]

You say that as if the extra income from tourism wouldn't be more than offset by the virus ripping through your population like wildfire, which it would.

 

[Smurf1976]

You say that as if the extra income from tourism wouldn't be more than offset by the virus ripping through your population like wildfire, which it would.

The data I can find is for 2017-18 so not the latest but still recent and it shows tourism as a net loss for Australia.

Tourism exports = $37.4 billion

Tourism imports = $54 billion

So there's a loss of economic activity and there's obviously the issue of people not being able to enjoy themselves on an overseas holiday but at an overall national level it's not something that's bringing money in anyway.

There's a downside definitely, people can't go and see the world and we're not going to be having international sports or concert tours or whatever and it has an obvious downside with lost activity and employment but it's not going to send the country broke.

 

[jbocker]

This is the epitome of short term thinking. If you've worked hard to keep the virus out, you have permanently backed yourself into a corner where you can not allow people in until you admit you were wrong and let people in, at which time the virus can spread. See, that's the thing about keeping it virus free - it's only a short term solution. No one is going to go anywhere on holiday if they need to spend the first two weeks locked up in isolation, it's a huge limit on people coming in to work. So, talking about where you'd rather be in the way you are is meaningless, because effectively no one is going to be able to go to those places. The places which have had the virus go through though, they'll be unaffected by new arrivals. Other than in the very short term I'd much rather be part of a 'we can do whatever we like without fear' bubble than a 'we are going to be perpetually stepping on eggshells and facing the possibility of yet another lockdown' place.

It will take some out of box thinking to get around the 'isolation' period and will probably then only suit the longer term stayer. The international retiree* travel group with plenty of time perhaps where after some good R&R for two weeks on a dedicated island they then join our grey nomads doing a long road trip. A few months travelling this amazing countryside not worrying about covid. Hey we might have trouble getting them to leave. Yep they are going to need to spend a lot. Oh dear.

* if any manage to survive in other countries.