Dump it Here

[Skate]

So you managed to integrate the indicator to run inside your various strategies...nice. I'll be interested to see how it performs in the 'bounce' that we have currently. A timely signal should the bounce (start to) collapse into a second low, would be very advantageous and I daresay profitable. That is certainly where my current attention is: trading the bounce.

Duc, I've added to my last post with "What's next" & a "recap" explaining the three.

Trading the bounce
Your posts is a perfect explanation how the daily "Ducati blue bar strategy" trades the "bounce" by picking when a trend turns using two indicators "volatility & volume". If the trend is up (blue Bars) we buy & if the trend is down (red bars) we sell - the strategy is simple, effective & clean. Your idea using "volatility & volume" to generate signals is clever but "ONLY" when the Parameters, Filters & PositionScore are added to the strategy being vital components to the profitability of the strategy. Using just the raw code without the "Parameters, Filters & PositionScore" the strategy would generate a tremendous amount of signals which tends to be useless.

Back to "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
(a) Integration was important. (b) Using the "monthly" ASX 200 Accumulation Index (XJOA) smoothes the signal. (c) The indicator works like someone saying - "get ready", "get ready","pull the trigger now" indicator. All strategies have entry & exit conditions "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" adds another layer to fine tune the "NOW" (pull the trigger now indicator) if that makes sense.

Skate.

 

[Country Lad]

Well, look at that. Skate's favourite company, SGH, is up 13.4% at the moment.

 

[Skate]

Well, look at that. Skate's favourite company, SGH, is up 13.4% at the moment.

"The Ducati blue bar strategy"
It goes to prove that "The Ducati blue bar strategy" is no Chihuahua when it comes to strategies - it's more of a Rottweiler. For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati blue bar strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. After a few days the portfolio is up $5,776.

@Country Lad thanks for reminding me about "SGH". It appears "The Ducati blue bar strategy" doesn't mind buying dogs if there is money to be made.

To rub salt into the wound (Portfolio performance)
I'll post a few portfolio captures for those interested...









Hanging my head in shame
Repeating till it sinks in.

1. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
2. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
3. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
4. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
5. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
6. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
7. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
8. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
9. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
10."Don't think you are smarter than your system"

Skate

 

[Newt]

Well, look at that. Skate's favourite company, SGH, is up 13.4% at the moment.

Certainly a lot of volume in last couple of weeks mainly "post crash".
Either that or Skate and Duc have so many followers/subscribers they're moving the market now....

 

[frugal.rock]

Certainly a lot of volume in last couple of weeks mainly "post crash".
Either that or Skate and Duc have so many followers/subscribers they're moving the market now....

Here we go, the old bottom thing again....it may reverse and do the same sort of stupidly low volume trading going upwards..meh!?
Pink Pig's CAN fly backwards.
With a good jet pack.

So it's not flying backwards.
But it is reversing on the same stupidly low volume.
Note the change/ pickup in volume/ divergence. I was considering picking some up last week and today it had fallen into the abyss off the end of the current checklist, so missed it's supernova performance... on low volume today
Now, if we all did staged buy ups tomorrow...

F.Rock

 

[Newt]

Disclaimer: All speculation in jest and - commentary for (limited) educational purposes only......

 

[Rsthree]

I'm waiting for the bounce so I can dive in!

I posted before that I was planning to start my trading experience in Feb but was (fortunately) delayed by some equipment issues.

So since the crash I've been paper trading and all with good results but not not sure if I'm to learn anything given the extraordinary circumstances.

As we know paper trading is relatively boring so I'm keen to dive in, but my better judgement and the the banter I read here suggests we are in a sucker rally at the the moment.

So please market get on with the bounce so I can do my thing

 

[Skate]

View attachment 102485

So please market get on with the bounce so I can do my thing

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
@Rsthree if you are trading a daily periodicity you have missed the start of the "bounce" but if your are planning to trade weekly, wait patiently as the bounce hasn't been confirmed by "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" which has the uncanny ability not only to pick the bounce but when it safe to enter.

Easy to read charts
When the bars are green you are good to GO, whereas red bars mean do not enter a position.

XAO - Daily bounce







XAO - Weekly bounce




Listen to Kahuna1
Below is a snippet from one of his recent posts worthy of a second read as trading is a "Get Rich Slow" method, hang tight as itchy fingers can bring even seasoned traders undone.

Trading or investing should be a GET RICH SLOW ... method. As is every business or accumulation of wealth. There is no magic shortcut. One has to do the work. Sure at times, we get some things very right, but along the way, we get others wrong. Money management is paramount and letting the bloody profits run and cutting the losses is key. Shares and trading often finds the less experienced doing the total opposite of this. Selling low and panic and buying high. When one has good cause to panic or reduce risk, we often find time and time again, the new hero's buying into things that are worthless. On the flip side, when something goes nuts, one reduces, slowly but reduces risk for that rainy day.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Hey Peter. It appears you have only plotted the first quadrant of price action.

Plots to look like:

View attachment 102270
Theoretically the shorter time-frames will look like (random distribution):

View attachment 102272
Theoretically the longer time-frames will look like (predictable distribution):
View attachment 102271
But why?

Hi Trendnomics

It does my head in trying to figure out what the postive/negative x-axis is on those graphs. I can understand Y will be the difference relative to buy price in set number of days. But don't really understand what positive and neg X value (current values) represent?

Anyhow, just as an exercise, this is the All Ords (+ Historical constituents) universe 4/1/2015 to 20/4/2020:

BUY = Today's price is greater than x bars ago
SELL = x bars after BUY

This is 30 separate random runs across the All ords universe, for a max of 25 positions. Y axis shows average annual returns across that period just randomly buying 25 stocks that met those Buy criteria, than selling X days later.

CAR scale is a bit hard to read, but effectively once over about 2 weeks you start to edge in to profitability. This won't surprise anyone that's ever included some sort of trend check criterion into an ASX trend following strategy (and then optimised it).

Essentially once you increase the period "x" to around 100 days you can show approx 5-15% per annum. This was run with $11 commission both ways, no slippage, min stock price 10cents, min average weekly turnover $100k.

Shown from a few different angles as otherwise bit hard to take in.

I think your thesis is that for short (<16 day) periods random walk theory holds ok, but longer periods (2 weeks to 2 years) show a high probability of continuing postive momentum and returns in a long only trend following ASX system?

 

[Rsthree]

View attachment 102485

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
@Rsthree if you are trading a daily periodicity you have missed the start of the "bounce" but if your are planning to trade weekly, wait patiently as the bounce hasn't been confirmed by "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" which has the uncanny ability not only to pick the bounce but when it safe to enter.

View attachment 102485

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
@Rsthree if you are trading a daily periodicity you have missed the start of the "bounce" but if your are planning to trade weekly, wait patiently as the bounce hasn't been confirmed by "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" which has the uncanny ability not only to pick the bounce but when it safe to enter.

Skate.

Mine is a weekly outlook but I think I may have used the wrong term when I said 'bounce'.

My low tech crystal ball from the $2 shop was insisting that the current exuberance was going to fail with another sharp down trend. So I was hoping to see a nice and orderly higher low developing for my entry signal.
But even if that happens it will probably then torment me with a deep and protracted accumulation period until we see some confidence in the economy moving forward. It will certainly test my patience.

 

[NoFOMO]

A warning

Need to voice about Anton Kreil


By reading all the posts around the web I can see few who comment have ever done a Anton Kreil ITPM course


And his defenders here are obviously Anton trolls, or Anton himself. He’s a walking self-promoter who bags everyone else to make you feel your going to miss out, the best FOMO in the learner traders on the Web. Don’t waste your money.


Most of what you need to be trade well you can get for FREE


Anton Kreils courses are FOMO Mercedes priced con when you only need a Toyota, like this fabulous forums Trading Fundamentals - Skate's Beginners Version


If you want a great Macro view of the world listen to religiously. Macrovoices


If you want to keep up with the worlds Macro info Tradingeconomics


If you want a great Bloomberg like platform Koyfin data


If you want a great all-round technical setup platform Tradingview


If you want to learn about how the market works read the front pages of Squeezemetrics

This site is closed for new premium subscriptions because they actually tell you where the markets are going with some accuracy.

If you want a site that you can still get some market direction using the same market analysis for a very small fee Spotgamma


If you want to learn to trade the Long Short Hedge fund way Macrovoices offers a great free course.


I’m happy to discuss AntonK course material, just send me an PM.


Anton is overpriced and full of himself and uses your fear and previous trading losses to sell to you.

 

[Skate]

Start Date: 18th March 2020
Portfolio Capital: $120,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 8
Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000

1. TNE @ $7.00 for 2142 shares on the 18th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $8.66
2. PPH @ $2.99 for 5016 shares on the 23rd March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $3.90
3. BTH @ $0.47 for 31914 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $0.59
4. NXT @ $7.94 for 1889 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 9th April 2020 @ $8.46
5. PNV @ $1.53 for 9803 shares on the 25th March 2020
6. NAN @ $5.45 for 2752 shares on the 27th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $6.35
7. SLC @ $0.54 for 27777 shares on the 27th March 2020
8. NCZ @ $0.076 for 197368 shares on the 27th March 2020















1. NXT @ $7.94 for 1889 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 9th April 2020 @ $8.46
2. TNE @ $7.00 for 2142 shares on the 18th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $8.66
3. PPH @ $2.99 for 5016 shares on the 23rd March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $3.90
4. BTH @ $0.47 for 31914 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $0.59
5. NAN @ $5.45 for 2752 shares on the 27th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $6.35







1. PNV @ $1.53 for 9803 shares on the 25th March 2020
2. SLC @ $0.54 for 27777 shares on the 27th March 2020
3. NCZ @ $0.076 for 197368 shares on the 27th March 2020




Skate.

 

[Skate]

"The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy"
It goes to prove that "The Ducati blue bar strategy" is no Chihuahua when it comes to strategies - it's more of a cute Labrador/Dalmatian mix. It's an offspring of a purebred Dalmatian and the purebred Labrador (hybrid). It's a mix of the easy-going Labrador & a feisty Dalmatian, which makes for a perfect dog & strategy. For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. Bugger me, the portfolio is still up $4,251.

The Dalmador









I'm still repeating....
1. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
2. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
3. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
4. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
5. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
6. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
7. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
8. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
9. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
10."Don't think you are smarter than your system"

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Sometime soon there'll be a Simpson's episode that starts with Bart writing on the blackboard:
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"
"Don't think you are smarter than your system"

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 102616

"The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy"
It goes to prove that "The Ducati blue bar strategy" is no Chihuahua when it comes to strategies - it's more of a cute Labrador/Dalmatian mix. It's an offspring of a purebred Dalmatian and the purebred Labrador (hybrid). It's a mix of the easy-going Labrador & a feisty Dalmatian, which makes for a perfect dog & strategy. For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. Bugger me, the portfolio is still up $4,251.

The Dalmador

View attachment 102617





View attachment 102618

I'm still repeating....
1. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
2. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
3. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
4. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
5. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
6. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
7. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
8. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
9. "Don't think you are smarter than your system"
10."Don't think you are smarter than your system"

Skate.

In my time @Skate, 50 or 100 lines was the minimum and no easy cut and paste with a Biro....
Have a great weekend

 

[NoFOMO]

Looks like one of the aussie motley fool portfolio. Chasing 65000 subscribers is a good base

 

[Skate]

@frugal.rock as you have taken an interest in "PDI" I think an update is required. "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" has generated a sell signal on (ASXDI) tomorrow.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

I've chosen Selfweath for the May tipping competition.

@myrtie100 I've grabbed part of your post from the "swf-selfwealth-limited" thread. My weekly trading update for "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is quickly coming to an end as the "8 Position Portfolio" has only one position currently open & "Two Dog Strategy" both positions are hanging on.

Knowledge, "leads to action"
@ducati916 posted some helpful hints (passing on some of his knowledge) in the "Dump it here" thread has resulted in 3 new afl's for me. (1) "The Ducati Blue Bar Daily Strategy" (2) "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" & (3) "The Ducati Acceleration Indicator" all respectable in their own right. I'm now a firm believer that we don't need a fancy strategy to make money in this game. Using "The Ducati Blue Bar Daily Strategy" with prudent "Money management" & a sharp "PositionScore" code brings this strategy to life. (parameter settings are also important - being part of the mix)

"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy"
This strategy just keeps giving by picking the turning pivot with ease. The signals are generated by using two commonly found indicators. Reverse the entry condition & you have yourself a handy exit strategy. When the position doesn't follow through "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" exits very quickly without any other inputs, simple & clever.

This may be interesting
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" picked the move of (ASX:SWF) & as you have an interest - the chart below may hold some interest for you.



Skate.

 

[myrtie100]

Thanks for posting the chart Skate.
I wish I knew what those commonly found indicators are, because they seem to pick the turning point incredibly well!

 

[Skate]

Start Date: 18th March 2020
Portfolio Capital: $120,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 8
Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000



1. TNE @ $7.00 for 2142 shares on the 18th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $8.66
2. PPH @ $2.99 for 5016 shares on the 23rd March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $3.90
3. BTH @ $0.47 for 31914 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $0.59
4. NXT @ $7.94 for 1889 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 9th April 2020 @ $8.46
5. PNV @ $1.53 for 9803 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 24th April 2020 @ $1.99
6. NAN @ $5.45 for 2752 shares on the 27th March 2020 - # SOLD 23rd April 2020 @ $6.35
7. SLC @ $0.54 for 27777 shares on the 27th March 2020 - # SOLD 28th April 2020 @ $0.785



8. NCZ @ $0.076 for 197368 shares on the 27th March 2020
















Skate.