Dump it Here

[ducati916]

Or do what the Turtles did, but take it up a notch. Give the exact same system to a few thousand people, sit back and watch as some make it profitable and others make it fail. The returns will form a nice bell curve. Interview those at each tail of the curve and you'll see what's happening. It won't have anything to do with discipline, education or market knowledge. It will be so-called 'random' events that make the difference. These 'random' events, whether helpful or harmful, will be related to an individual's core beliefs.

Your conclusion cannot be true.

The Turtle experiment resulted in a number of the group breaking the rules. A breach of discipline. Had they all traded 100% to the rules, then allowing for slippage in execution, their results would have been the same.

Random events in this context are extrinsic to the individual. Thus must affect the entire group.

An intrinsic variation [random event] in a failure to execute to instructions, is a breach of discipline. The reason that they breached instructions may well be that they did not 'believe' but that is irrelevant to the question in this case: their belief or disbelief, had no direct impact on the profitability of the system [or not as the case maybe]. Their belief was that they could out-trade the system. This was proven to be false.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Retesting making new highs
Looks it could go fair bit higher if it consolidates and then breaks through?

View attachment 91926 View attachment 91927

I could have posted the chart in the (RRL) Regis Resources thread but I prefer to 'Dump it here' for the educational value.

Why post the chart
It's a perfect example to show how I trade simple breakouts, you can view the setup & the execution of an actual trade that I have taken from the get-go, meaning from the beginning of the trade.

It's my job
My Hybrid strategy gave a 'buy' signal on Friday 1st Feb 2019 & I purchased the position on Monday 4th Feb 2019 in the pre-auction. BlueWren & Bollinger Bands (BBO) generated the signal whereas their was no signal generated from the Darvas strategy.

Its all about breakouts & trends
As a trend trader it's my job to jump on the move. Will the trade be successful, who knows. When the trend is over it's will be my job to hop off. This is a simple way to trade effectively over time. Breakout trades take time to work.

My strategy
I've jump on the breakout & I'll ride the the trend till it's over. Clean cut, simple in execution I'll post the exit, & explain why the trend ended.

Classic trend following
The setup of (RRL) is a classic trend following breakout, I haven't time to wait for a pullback as per the CAM strategy or like others who trade pullbacks. I entered on a confirmed uptrend & I'll exit when the trend turns down. (Finishes)


Buy signal from BlueWren & BBO (no Darvas signal)




The chart displaying the 'buy' signal bar & the 'buy' bar.


From this point on
Trading is just about selecting companies that you believe will increase in price over time. Now that I've placed my buy order, I'll just hang on for the ride as its all I can do from here on, the only thing left for me to do is manage my sell order as everything is in the lap of the trading gods. Trading is an emotional roller coaster and how you manage your psychology really matters even more than your stock selection.

Skate.

 

[satanoperca]

Why should I read the thread or eBook ? (for positive reinforcement)
It may save you many years of self-education if you have a slight interest in trading, otherwise you can use it as a pep talk. I wanted to explain the dangers & pitfalls associated with trading, most don't understand the emotional side to trading not realising the roller coaster of emotions everyone experiences when they trade. By keeping your emotions in check you'll make better decisions.

Skate.

I wish I had have found something like your ebook when I started trading, the closest I found was by reading Tech/A threads and then tracking down Nick Radge and subscribing to his service for a year and reading his books over and over again.

While @Skate your ebook is hard to digest when first read, as I have suggested in previous thread, to get real meaning out of what you have written, one must read in full and then read small sections at a time and try to understand what you are saying.

Maybe and I don't know, but Joe can create a section called "Knowledge Base" or "ASF Wiki" where documents like yours can be accessed, it is not a thread, but a library of reference material.

This "ASF Wiki for Trading" could then be used as marketing and point new forum members to it before or when they apply, so they see the worth in the forum and do not get displaced with the normal dribble that happens on all forums.

 

[jjbinks]

I could have posted the chart in the (RRL) Regis Resources thread but I prefer to 'Dump it here' for the educational value.

From this point on
Trading is just about selecting companies that you believe will increase in price over time. Now that I've placed my buy order, I'll just hang on for the ride as its all I can do from here on, the only thing left for me to do is manage my sell order as everything is in the lap of the trading gods. Trading is an emotional roller coaster and how you manage your psychology really matters even more than your stock selection.

Skate.

Hi Skate thanks for your comments and reading my post .
I must confess I have been pretty busy last few weeks and definitely have not kept up with everything written in this thread so I apologise if what I am about to ask has been addressed already.

I'm curious as to how you decide on stops for these kinds of trades. (This is something I am learning. I try use tight stops but then get stopped out to early). These days I put stop to a point at which I think retracement is likely and then move the stop up once initial target is reached.
e.g. with RRL I may put stop around 5.0 and move it up once price reaches around 5.60

 

[Skate]

Hi Skate thanks for your comments and reading my post .
I must confess I have been pretty busy last few weeks and definitely have not kept up with everything written in this thread so I apologise if what I am about to ask has been addressed already.

I'm curious as to how you decide on stops for these kinds of trades. (This is something I am learning. I try use tight stops but then get stopped out to early). These days I put stop to a point at which I think retracement is likely and then move the stop up once initial target is reached.
e.g. with RRL I may put stop around 5.0 and move it up once price reaches around 5.60

jjbinks, let me first explain that all breakouts are dependant on momentum & all exits depend on it as well.

"I try use tight stops but then get stopped out to early"
Tight stops are a handbrake on any trend following strategy, all stock have a natural ebb & flow & interconnected with the industry the stock belongs to.

"These days I put stop to a point at which I think retracement is likely and then move the stop up once initial target is reached"

Over thinking
There is the major difference between us, I don't think. I follow a mechanical strategy, the strategy makes the decision when I should sell. Could you imagine the mistakes I would make having that decision left in my hands ?

Momentum
Momentum gets me into a trade & momentum gets me out. To stop whipsaw I use a wide 40% variable trailing stop that is conditional on market conditions & momentum of the stock.

The Key to Success
The key to stock market success is properly managing your positions after you buy them. The way to do that is fairly simple.

1. Don’t be afraid to sell.
2. Have a methodology that clearly establishes exit points.

Triggers
I have three buy triggers & two sell triggers in my Hybrid Strategy.

Sell triggers
1. 40% variable trailing stop
2. A stale stop exit (momentum stop, I don't want to be in a position that has no moment)

Hop on for the ride (let it take me to the moon)
I want to be on a bus going in the right direction with momentum. If the bus ceases to go in the right direction (LET ME OFF) if the bus loses momentum & ceases to keep travelling in the right direction (LET ME OFF)

Nothing complicated
I've noticed forum members like charts, so I post a 'buy & sell pressure Daily & Weekly chart for (RRL) so you can observe the traders mentality (at the moment) who currently share my opinion.


(RRL) buy & sell pressure "Daily" chart Capture



(RRL) buy & sell pressure "Weekly" chart Capture


It doesn't matter
Being right ceases to be right when the majority doesn't share your view. Meaning your view & my view doesn't matter, what does matter is that we hold the same view as the majority of traders & trade accordingly.

Skate.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Random events in this context are extrinsic to the individual.

I don't think they are. That's my point - there's no such thing as 'extrinsic'. 'Inner' and 'outer' are not just linked, they are one thing. It's like the leaves of a tree thinking they are separate to (and unaffected by) the roots.

You could even give the same system to two different managed funds and get a robot to trade it and get completely different returns! The difference would be explained (once again) by 'random' events, such as a power outage or software glitch. There's no such thing as 'random'.

 

[ducati916]

1. I don't think they are. That's my point - there's no such thing as 'extrinsic'. 'Inner' and 'outer' are not just linked, they are one thing. It's like the leaves of a tree thinking they are separate to (and unaffected by) the roots.

2. You could even give the same system to two different managed funds and get a robot to trade it and get completely different returns! The difference would be explained (once again) by 'random' events, such as a power outage or software glitch. There's no such thing as 'random'.

1. There is definitely a difference between intrinsic and extrinsic. This is simply a tautology.

2. I accept your provided examples could provide different returns from the same system/methodology.

However, in any analysis of why there were differences, simply allowing for a power outage, thereby precluding the trade to be taken, glitch, etc, the results would theoretically have been the same. The trader could have a degree of confidence that had the trade been taken, the result would have been similar.

Re. random. This requires a far lengthier reply

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Just done reading through 24 years of MND's annual reports. Yea, I got no life.

One of Australia's best companies I reckon.

Its drive into Infrastructure started way back in the early 2000s, in the middle of a surge in mining and mierals; formally established around 2011 with management teasing that big hunt for a faster push into "infrastructure"... any time now boys.

As to its infrastructure plans... incredible how Rubino and Velletri's stated objective for it are already gaining great traction without the market, I guess, appreciating it so much.

There's the water infrastructure and irrigation; the JV with ZEM Energy winning windfarm projects - four in the past year.

The geographic expansion for Water, irrigation... I'm guessing also renewable into NZ.

There's the Oyu Tolgoi project they've been hanging around with RIO in Mongolia since, from memory, about 2013. They've won a couple work packages and things are about to pick up there. With MND establishing an upskilling and training operation in Mongolia specifically for the project... they're going to win work either way I reckon.

There's the 3 major Iron Ore projects with FMG, RIO, BHP that's been greenlighted and MND is bidding for all three of them. They're each about $300M a pack.

With the liberation of Venezuela, and soon Iran... the four or so years of oilers starving... opportunities in this sector will likely pick up soon.

Funny that with fossil picking up, investment in renewable will also likely to pick up too. MND's Zenviron JV should further benefit from that.

I own the stock and could be biased... but looks like the ducks are lining up... and MND got $208M in cash, practically zero debt, great management and highly capable workforce to take advantage of that.

My "research" and "forecast"...

I don't want to comment on (MND) but use the stock to explain a point. Since selling out of this position there has been a lack of interest in this stock (The yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart indicates this). I'm with luutzu, at the moment there is now renewed interest in this stock & it's building nicely.

@jjbinks as Monadelphous Group (MND) is being discussed in its own thread, a stock that has been kind to me in the past, it's a perfect example to explain a little more about how I exit a trade.

My Existing Two Exits are:
Exit 1 - A variable looping Trailing Stop (the red line in the Chart - NOT hit at exit)
Exit 2 - A Stale Stop - which is a combination of (a) a Rate of Change (ROC) Indicator and (b) a Chandelier Stop & ATR in combination - I'm not using a stock standard Rate of Change indicator (ROC) there's a little more to it than that.

Why the exit
The Stale Stop, decided (not me) when it was time to sell out of (MND) & as you can notice the trailing stop hadn't been hit at this stage.


Stale Stop EXIT taken before the trailing stop was hit


My searchlight
I have a searchlight that turns on (it's the yellow shadow, the vertical beam) to show me the 'bar' the signal was generated on. Have a look at the Rate of Change (ROC) ribbon, notice the amount of yellow. Yellow means prepare to STOP, just like traffic lights.

Prepare to exit
I got the prepare to exit signal 3 weeks prior to the actual exit & the searchlight is the 'STOP' signal (bar), I could have made the the searchlight beam 'Red' but cosmetically it didn't look as nice.

ROC indicator
I've explained in an earlier post how the 'Exit' (Stale Stop) works & how I use the (ROC) to gauge momentum (traders interest). I use momentum going into the trade & when it stalls & momentum slows & downturns I'm out of the trade quick smart. I'm not using a stock standard Rate of Change indicator (ROC) there's a little more to it than that.

First off
Also I want to get off the trade early, well earlier than every other trend follower at least. If I'm wrong & sell too early, don't worry I can hop back on again.

The ROC (The traffic light)
This indicator is well under-used & under appreciated. Lets call it my "traffic light" for trading. It simply means when I get a green to go, (I buy, without thinking, I trust my system) When I get a yellow (I'm cautious preparing & looking to stop at any moment) & red to stop (When I get the stop, I sell without a second thought)

Drive safely
Traffic lights are in place so we drive safely getting from where we are to where we want to be. The ROC indicator is a reflection of traders behaviour. The standard (ROC) is okay but not for me, there is more to it than that. The ROC in combination with ATR & other indicators you have a more accurate set of traffic lights.

Hitchhiker (I'm standing on the side of the road, thumb out, waiting for a ride)
Using the (ROC) indicator means I pick up the breakout as soon as possible (front running other Trend Followers as we all tend to get the same signals) & that is the reason I use three different breakout strategies. I want to be first on the ride.

Don't let other tell you its not all about trends
I'm a Trend Follower, a quick and simple explanation for others - if traders want to jump on & push a stock price higher count me in but as soon as I know the interest starting to wain (lose momentum) I'm off the sucker looking for the next ride. Trend Followers are hitchhikers, 'thumb out' waiting for the next ride.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

@Skate The more I see, the more I respect the work you've done to create this trading system. I've remained a discretionary trader because I've been unable to mechanise my process. The more I see of your system the more I'm convinced that you've done it. You have automated my discretionary system. The only technical difference between our processes is the position sizing models. I use the fixed fractional position sizing model where as you use equal sized positions. I use the iSL to size my trades where as you don't and use a much wider iSL initially as a disaster exit. (*)

You've done a superb job assembling this Hybrid Strategy.

There are so many aspects to each part. You've got multiple entry setups and dual exits. The two exits sounds so simple yet I think each exit has multiple parts. Exit 1 provides a disaster exit, allows lots of room for price movement in good market conditions and also responds to worsening market conditions to protect open profits. As you've mentioned Exit 2 incorporates several aspects as well but its main role is the detection of the loss of price momentum.

Together your two exits complement each other and you cleverly created a traffic light methodology to make it easy to understand and implement.

(*) My work with the ASX40 Pos Portfolio (in real time) will elucidate the advantages or disadvantages between the two position size models (provided I trade through all three market conditions, bull, bear and crappy sideways).

 

[cynic]

1. Beliefs are formed by either (a) or (b).

Beliefs do not create reality in (a).

Your argument appears to rely heavily upon the veracity of these statements.

Do you firmly believe them to be true?

If so, have you noticed how this does naught more, than provide further evidentiary support for the philosophy under discussion?

In my opinion, intellectual debate on this particular philosophy, whilst quite entertaining, tends to be self defeating.

A way (perhaps the only way) of testing for veracity, is via practical experiment.
=============================================================
For those interested, a couple of publications, offering a useful blend of theory and practical exercises, that one might consider for further exploration are:

"Three Magic Words" by U.S. Andersen,

"Concentration" by Mouni Sadhu,

the former publication, by Andersen, serves as a gentler introduction for those with no prior experience of metaphysical concepts.

The latter, by Sadhu, whilst it also serves as a useful introduction, incorporates a series of concentration exercises demanding a far greater level of mental endurance.

Ardent secularists will likely find the material in aforesaid publications confronting, as certain contemporary secular conceptions, are dismissed as misconceptions, by both authors.

Now, one may rightly ask, how can this relate to trading?
It needn't necessarily relate, but it can be related, if one so chooses.

Upon being confronted with failure in any aspect of life, and seeking remedy for same, it can be quite helpful to have an understanding of the underlying mechanics.

"Something always goes wrong","I am not good enough","I never catch a break","@#%& happens","This always happens to me","SNAFU","Life is hard","I never win anything","Trading is hard"

All of the above can be expressions of belief. All of them can be, or become, true.

But they need not necessarily be, nor become!

With greater self awareness comes greater power to shape one's life experience.

So, whenever performing post mortems on failed strategies, it can sometimes pay to consider major contributing factors.

One's personal religion (i.e. entrenched belief system) is a major contributing factor which can manifest success or failure in a variety of ways. (Even supposedly external events, of a seemingly happenstance nature, could potentially be a direct consequence of personal belief.)

Every consciousness, every day, is exercising a "god" like power, and continuously manifesting miracles (these have been occuring so commonly, for so long, that they are typically viewed as banal).

So what miracles has one been manifesting? Are these the miracles one wants? If not look to the underlying belief and change it!

 

[Darc Knight]

Another question if I may please Skate. As a person with an Accounting background my natural bias was toward FA. I've recently started learning Tech after reading this thread. My question is; isn't Tech becoming obsolete for the average Punter due to super computers and AI? Thanks

 

[willy1111]

Another question if I may please Skate. As a person with an Accounting background my natural bias was toward FA. I've recently started learning Tech after reading this thread. My question is; isn't Tech becoming obsolete for the average Punter due to super computers and AI? Thanks

The way I think of it is the trend followers are piggy backing off all the hard work the FA/Value Investing peoples are doing.

The FA/Value Investing peoples do all the work to find the companies that are being run well, achieving good results and have a good outlook. They create demand for the company, the share price moves up, the trend followers notice the price moving up and they jump on for the ride.

If the company continues to perform, continues to have a good outlook as time progresses more people buy into which continues to push the price along.

When the results start to deteriorate or the outlook looks more uncertain or not so good, the FA/Value investors start to jump off pushing the price down - trend followers have a predetermined stop level in place (or lack of Momentum indicator) and if the price tracks down to this level they are out too.

You will tend to notice that both FA/Value Investors and trend followers will often end up making gains in the same stocks.

 

[Skate]

Another question if I may please Skate. As a person with an Accounting background my natural bias was toward FA. I've recently started learning Tech after reading this thread. My question is; isn't Tech becoming obsolete for the average Punter due to super computers and AI? Thanks

Darc Knight, what a great question, it has shown that you have been thinking about this issue. Let me address each statement & finally your question.

Your disclaimer
1. "As a person with an Accounting background my natural bias was toward FA"

My disclaimer
I was a financial disputes judge in the NSW legal system & I have history of evaluating business in a previous life. The books are not always accurate, sometimes misleading & deceptive. CEO's & CFO's sometimes massage the numbers, fancy accounting, pushing the boundaries, whatever you want to call it happens more often than you hear. Understanding financials is time consuming, basically a background check of how company has performed and operated in the past assuming the information passed on is accurate. Evaluating a business correctly is hard work.

2. "I've recently started learning Tech after reading this thread"

I'm a winner
If any of my posts help one person modify their behaviour or thinking pattern, I'm a winner.

3. "My question is; isn't Tech becoming obsolete for the average Punter due to super computers and AI?"

Your question deserves a comprehensive answer
Technical analysis isn’t becoming obsolete for the average punter & is not obsolete when compared to advancement in technology. My strategy uses a “Decision Tree process” to find signals whereas AI uses the "Machine Learning process" to find signals. Trading is not an exact science but a mathematics game, a game of probabilities & not percentages. AI advancements in medical research is a godsend, its the equivalent of a medical breakthrough for that industry.

Not an exact science
Trading is not an exact science & AI is great at finding static positions whereas the market are fluid driven by rational people making irrational decisions. A supercomputer using AI would have no idea what my the next word is going to be let alone what I am thinking. My trading strategy finds conditions that have been pre-programmed into my code, whereas AI find conditions then goes about looking for the reason that preceded that condition. (Simple difference but its more than that)

176,000 words in the dictionary (I don't think we need them all)
People have tendency to think in terms "more is better". But the truth is that in programming less is more & to me less is better. I’m not a believer of adding complexity when it is not needed & that's what AI does, adds complexity.

Good enough is sometimes good enough
Some maintain that ‘traditional platforms’ using decision trees process is adequate whereas others maintain that the new ‘Machine Learning’ programs like Python returns better results. Thus, there will always a difference of opinion.

The truth
To succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place whether it uses a Decision Tree process or Machine Learning to generate signals it doesn’t really matter. Confidence to keep pulling the trigger is all that matters to me.

Trading is not exact science
For all the advancements in technology the market itself hasn’t changed much. It is still driven by the same two opposing forces, fear and greed.

Profiting from the stock market
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time because the market is so irrational & emotional, the market is not logical or reasonable. It's emotional & unstable. A market is nothing more than a crowd of people that has absolutely no regard for what any one person may think and most times rational people make irrational decisions, go figure.

What do 'Tech guys' think
We recognise that we can take steps to profit when the mood is unusually good or run and hide when things become dark and gloomy. People have fairly predictable emotional responses as stocks become cheaper or more expensive & their profits, losses, dictate their entry & exit point’s that are predictable.

We understand behaviour
If you understand the traders past behaviour, tech guys believe they can predict their future behaviour. Stocks are just like people, because that is who makes them look the way they do, by buying and selling creates an emotional ebb and flow pattern. Just like people, stocks can be unpredictable, but certain emotions and behaviours do occur regularly & that what tech guys try to capture.

I'm a classic trend follower
I enter on a confirmed uptrend, exit when the trend turns down. I jump on breakout & ride the trend till it's ends. It's a simple method of trading that I find profitable.

Let me ask you a question
Do you think I need a super computers and AI to trade the way I do ?

Skate.

 

[Darc Knight]

Let me ask you a question
Do you think I need a super computers and AI to trade the way I do ?

Skate.

Sincere thanks for the detailed reply Skate. You are fast approaching ASF Legend status with this thread

I assume the answer to your question is no you don't use/need a super computer.
Thanks again

 

[cynic]

The way I think of it is the trend followers are piggy backing off all the hard work the FA/Value Investing peoples are doing.

The FA/Value Investing peoples do all the work to find the companies that are being run well, achieving good results and have a good outlook. They create demand for the company, the share price moves up, the trend followers notice the price moving up and they jump on for the ride.

If the company continues to perform, continues to have a good outlook as time progresses more people buy into which continues to push the price along.

When the results start to deteriorate or the outlook looks more uncertain or not so good, the FA/Value investors start to jump off pushing the price down - trend followers have a predetermined stop level in place (or lack of Momentum indicator) and if the price tracks down to this level they are out too.

You will tend to notice that both FA/Value Investors and trend followers will often end up making gains in the same stocks.

Also piggy backing off of the actions of inside traders, those nefarious, white collar criminals, who eagerly seek to profit from market moving information prior to publication.

 

[satanoperca]

@Skate QUOTE
"My strategy uses a “Decision Tree process” to find signals whereas AI uses the "Machine Learning process" to find signals. Trading is not an exact science but a mathematics game, a game of probabilities & not percentages.

My trading strategy finds conditions that have been pre-programmed into my code, whereas AI find conditions then goes about looking for the reason that preceded that condition. (Simple difference but its more than that)
(this is the most simple explanation that I have come across for those that do not work in the AI field, the difference between the 2 is significant)

I’m not a believer of adding complexity when it is not needed & that's what AI does, adds complexity.
(any designer of any product or service understands that removing complexity creates a better design. What makes a great designer, is his or hers ability to remove complexity or unnecessary functionality that does not make the product or service more functional but increase the chance of failure)

The truth
To succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place whether it uses a Decision Tree process or Machine Learning to generate signals it doesn’t really matter. Confidence to keep pulling the trigger is all that matters to me.
(the underlined section, is the most critical for anyone to understand and accept)

Profiting from the stock market
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time because the market is so irrational & emotional, the market is not logical or reasonable. It's emotional & unstable. A market is nothing more than a crowd of people that has absolutely no regard for what any one person may think and most times rational people make irrational decisions, go figure.
(the underlined section, is the most critical for anyone to understand and accept)

Let me ask you a question
Do you think I need a super computers and AI to trade the way I do ?
(NO, a basic laptop with access to the internet and some charting software that is programmable to test ideas is all you need, I am busy build a quantum super computer in my shed)"


Great post Skate, I have just condensed it down to the points that I think are the most relevant for people to understand and have been highlighted in BLUE

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If not look to the underlying belief and change it!

Sounds easy.

Most people who attempt this will start off by repeating a phrase "I am a winning trader" or visualizing a successful scenario such as an enormous bank balance. This only works if there's no competing scripts. And there's always a competing script. In other words, this approach very rarely works. The trick is in identifying and clearing competing scripts.

 

[greggles]

Ego Death

In my late teens, twenties and thirties I thought I knew it all. I was supremely confident that I had all the answers. After all, I knew it all, how could I not? I think many, if not most, young men have similar attitude in our young buck years.

Then, in my forties, that facade began to crumble. Unfortunate circumstances led to me losing a lot of money due to my own stupidity and arrogance. Not long after that I lost my source of income. Then I was forced to conduct a more objective analysis of myself and I wasn't happy with what I saw. I was a middle-aged male with outdated qualifications who had skated through life far too easily and without making any plans whatsoever for possible catastrophic life events. I was entirely unprepared and felt like a failure. Feeling like a failure is one thing, but feeling like you've failed your loved ones is something far more devastating. I felt lost and adrift. What was I good at? What was my purpose? What am I going to do with the rest of my life? I had to re-examine everything from the ground up, including myself.

The first things I noticed was how much like my old man I had become in certain respects. It is true that nature and nurture are both important but the nature part comes from your parents DNA. For some reason I didn't start seeing this stuff until my forties, probably because when I was younger I was busy pretending to be someone else. Now I had no choice but to face myself: anxiety, issues with alcohol, inability to get too close to people, even those very close to me. It was like a ball of string unravelling. Once it started, nothing could stop it. I saw everything. Why do I have short legs and short arms? I started seeing how my siblings were also like our parents. I started thinking about genetic destiny and wondering if I had seen the best years of life and was now on the way down and out. It was a very confusing time and occurred just when I thought I had it all together.

It was as if my ego had died and was unable to be resuscitated. The old fella had finally croaked and now all that was left was this vastly complex, very imperfect human being that wasn't nearly as impressive nor as talented or intelligent as I once thought. The shine had well and truly come off.

So what did I learn? I learned never to put all your eggs in one basket. I learned not to mistake luck for talent. I learned to never believe my own propaganda. All it takes it one set of unfortunate circumstances for your whole life to start unravelling. I also learned to count your blessings. I had solid support and was grateful for it. But most of all I learned that ego is the greatest blind spot of all. An oversized ego is more of a liability than an asset. It's like joining a cult and losing all perspective. Your ego lies to you. It overlooks your flaws and weaknesses. It doesn't have your best interests at heart. Try to keep it in check, for your own sake.

These days I'm far more humble and objective. I realise how tentative life is and I remind myself every day of how lucky I am, but also how much of a work in progress I still am. I feel like I know less now than I did 25 years ago. I don't, of course, but I deluded myself into thinking I knew everything back then. Now I'm happy to face reality. I have far fewer opinions. I try to listen more than I talk. I second guess everything. There is very little in life I'm certain about any more but I'm happy to be that way. Being certain about things I shouldn't have has cost me a lot. I still plan ahead but I now take it one day at a time, one step at a time. And I watch where I put my feet.

 

[barney]

Ego Death

In my late teens, twenties and thirties I thought I knew it all. I was supremely confident that I had all the answers. After all, I knew it all, how could I not? I think many, if not most, young men have similar attitude in our young buck years.

Then, in my forties, that facade began to crumble. Unfortunate circumstances led to me losing a lot of money due to my own stupidity and arrogance. Not long after that I lost my source of income. Then I was forced to conduct a more objective analysis of myself and I wasn't happy with what I saw. I was a middle-aged male with outdated qualifications who had skated through life far too easily and without making any plans whatsoever for possible catastrophic life events. I was entirely unprepared and felt like a failure. Feeling like a failure is one thing, but feeling like you've failed your loved ones is something far more devastating. I felt lost and adrift. What was I good at? What was my purpose? What am I going to do with the rest of my life? I had to re-examine everything from the ground up, including myself.

The first things I noticed was how much like my old man I had become in certain respects. It is true that nature and nurture are both important but the nature part comes from your parents DNA. For some reason I didn't start seeing this stuff until my forties, probably because when I was younger I was busy pretending to be someone else. Now I had no choice but to face myself: anxiety, issues with alcohol, inability to get too close to people, even those very close to me. It was like a ball of string unravelling. Once it started, nothing could stop it. I saw everything. Why do I have short legs and short arms? I started seeing how my siblings were also like our parents. I started thinking about genetic destiny and wondering if I had seen the best years of life and was now on the way down and out. It was a very confusing time and occurred just when I thought I had it all together.

It was as if my ego had died and was unable to be resuscitated. The old fella had finally croaked and now all that was left was this vastly complex, very imperfect human being that wasn't nearly as impressive nor as talented or intelligent as I once thought. The shine had well and truly come off.

So what did I learn? I learned never to put all your eggs in one basket. I learned not to mistake luck for talent. I learned to never believe my own propaganda. All it takes it one set of unfortunate circumstances for your whole life to start unravelling. I also learned to count your blessings. I had solid support and was grateful for it. But most of all I learned that ego is the greatest blind spot of all. An oversized ego is more of a liability than an asset. It's like joining a cult and losing all perspective. Your ego lies to you. It overlooks your flaws and weaknesses. It doesn't have your best interests at heart. Try to keep it in check, for your own sake.

These days I'm far more humble and objective. I realise how tentative life is and I remind myself every day of how lucky I am, but also how much of a work in progress I still am. I feel like I know less now than I did 25 years ago. I don't, of course, but I deluded myself into thinking I knew everything back then. Now I'm happy to face reality. I have far fewer opinions. I try to listen more than I talk. I second guess everything. There is very little in life I'm certain about any more but I'm happy to be that way. Being certain about things I shouldn't have has cost me a lot. I still plan ahead but I now take it one day at a time, one step at a time. And I watch where I put my feet.

Normally I would condense a long recent post before I comment/reply to it … however in this case I think it is not only important, but more importantly respectful to "replay" your complete post @greggles ….

For the record ….. A few months ago I (and many others at ASF) recognised the fantastic contribution that you offered Greg

Constant Stock reflection with some poignant and insightful commentary …. at a time when ASF needed said commentary because the "numbers" were diminishing, so well done on that alone

I could write a short story on your above comments …. but basically, I feel ALL your pain because I, and I suspect many others have been through circumstances which are likely similar … and in my own situation … almost finished me …….

However … like you, I'm still here …….. trading is just another reflection/recollection of our lives and experiences …….. Not everyone is fortunate enough to come out the other side relatively unscathed, however ….

The great thing about ASF … is that as traders/humans/regular people with regular problems, is that we can share our situations … and hopefully get support when the chips are down

Your above post is way more valuable than many may recognise at this point in time … simply because many would not have not been through what you have been through.

Hats off from me my friend …. I'd suggest that in the real/non cyber world … you and I would likely get along very well … Cheers.

 

[barney]

Ego Death

In my late teens, twenties and thirties I thought I knew it all. I was supremely confident that I had all the answers. After all, I knew it all, how could I not? I think many, if not most, young men have similar attitude in our young buck years.

Then, in my forties, that facade began to crumble. Unfortunate circumstances led to me losing a lot of money due to my own stupidity and arrogance. Not long after that I lost my source of income. Then I was forced to conduct a more objective analysis of myself and I wasn't happy with what I saw. I was a middle-aged male with outdated qualifications who had skated through life far too easily and without making any plans whatsoever for possible catastrophic life events. I was entirely unprepared and felt like a failure. Feeling like a failure is one thing, but feeling like you've failed your loved ones is something far more devastating. I felt lost and adrift. What was I good at? What was my purpose? What am I going to do with the rest of my life? I had to re-examine everything from the ground up, including myself.

The first things I noticed was how much like my old man I had become in certain respects. It is true that nature and nurture are both important but the nature part comes from your parents DNA. For some reason I didn't start seeing this stuff until my forties, probably because when I was younger I was busy pretending to be someone else. Now I had no choice but to face myself: anxiety, issues with alcohol, inability to get too close to people, even those very close to me. It was like a ball of string unravelling. Once it started, nothing could stop it. I saw everything. Why do I have short legs and short arms? I started seeing how my siblings were also like our parents. I started thinking about genetic destiny and wondering if I had seen the best years of life and was now on the way down and out. It was a very confusing time and occurred just when I thought I had it all together.

It was as if my ego had died and was unable to be resuscitated. The old fella had finally croaked and now all that was left was this vastly complex, very imperfect human being that wasn't nearly as impressive nor as talented or intelligent as I once thought. The shine had well and truly come off.

So what did I learn? I learned never to put all your eggs in one basket. I learned not to mistake luck for talent. I learned to never believe my own propaganda. All it takes it one set of unfortunate circumstances for your whole life to start unravelling. I also learned to count your blessings. I had solid support and was grateful for it. But most of all I learned that ego is the greatest blind spot of all. An oversized ego is more of a liability than an asset. It's like joining a cult and losing all perspective. Your ego lies to you. It overlooks your flaws and weaknesses. It doesn't have your best interests at heart. Try to keep it in check, for your own sake.

These days I'm far more humble and objective. I realise how tentative life is and I remind myself every day of how lucky I am, but also how much of a work in progress I still am. I feel like I know less now than I did 25 years ago. I don't, of course, but I deluded myself into thinking I knew everything back then. Now I'm happy to face reality. I have far fewer opinions. I try to listen more than I talk. I second guess everything. There is very little in life I'm certain about any more but I'm happy to be that way. Being certain about things I shouldn't have has cost me a lot. I still plan ahead but I now take it one day at a time, one step at a time. And I watch where I put my feet.

Normally I would condense a long recent post before I comment/reply to it … however in this case I think it is not only important, but more importantly respectful to "replay" your complete post @greggles ….

For the record ….. A few months ago I (and many others at ASF) recognised the fantastic contribution that you offered Greg

Constant Stock reflection with some poignant and insightful commentary …. at a time when ASF needed said commentary because the "numbers" were diminishing, so well done on that alone

I could write a short story on your above comments …. but basically, I feel ALL your pain because I, and I suspect many others have been through circumstances which are likely similar … and in my own situation … almost finished me …….

However … like you, I'm still here …….. trading is just another reflection/recollection of our lives and experiences …….. Not everyone is fortunate enough to come out the other side relatively unscathed, however ….

The great thing about ASF … is that as traders/humans/regular people with regular problems, is that we can share our situations … and hopefully get support when the chips are down

Your above post is way more valuable than many may recognise at this point in time … simply because many would not have not been through what you have been through.

Hats off from me my friend …. I'd suggest that in the real/non cyber world … you and I would likely get along very well … Cheers.