Dump it Here

[Skate]

Thanx Skase , I did notice the difference between your losing and closed trades. So your winning and losing trades would actually be position not trade because you haven't actually traded is that right?

Hi @willoneau

Further explanation of the Dashboard
@qldfrog is correct, there is one losing trade & the losing trade has not been closed. The portfolio has seven winning trades, one losing trade totalling (8) open positions (at the moment). The CAM Strategy weekly posts reports the progress of the actual live trades. The 'Dashboard' displays all the current activity of the strategy & these displays will change weekly.

An explanation of the Line Chart
The line chart is a quick representation of the CAM's progress for others who require less detail, a visual aide to plot the progress of the strategy.

Information below the line chart

I have three coloured boxes displaying positive or negative amounts of the [Weekly Trading P/L] the [YTD Net P/L] & more importantly the [Weekly Average] that needs to be greater than [$1,000] to meet the CAM Strategy Mission Statement.

Minor Update
After 4 days of trading I have decided to make a few minor changes to the strategy, the CAM Strategy code is unchanged.

The CAM Weekly Strategy - minor UPDATES
Capital Invested: changes from [$300,000] to $400,000
Positions in the Portfolio: changes from [20] to 25
Position Sizing: changes from [$15,000] to $16,000, re-balanced weekly

Issues with trading in the pre-auction
There is (2) issues trading in the pre-auction.
1. The quantity of shares being purchased is known - but
2. The opening price of the position is unknown

Actual purchases
The graphic below represents the actual purchases made on Tuesday 11th June. The share purchased in the pre-auction uses the last closing price for its calculations to incorporate a 3% premium for buys. If the premium is completely taken up the maximum investment would be around $15,000 or so for each position.

If you look at the graphic below you will notice the Dollar varies for each position from $13,760.13 - to - $15,704.13, proving that trading in the pre-auction has limitations proving there is nothing perfect trading this way when it comes to dollar position sizing - this is the very reason why I need to re-balance the dollar positions on a weekly basis.



Lets RECAP
The CAM Strategy is actively being traded & its progress is being reported weekly in this thread, the reporting is 100% accurate. The report is very minimal with the Dashboard & Line Chart - between them you can gleam as much information that you are interested in.

Changes at a glance


Skate.

 

[Skate]

 

[Skate]

Finding the correct medium between winning% profit% and drawdown is what most of us strive for.
My aim is around 50% win rate
30% profit
and under 20% drawdown.

review-
win%= 30%
return on capital= -11.2%
expectancy= -0.51

@willoneau has made two posts in his thread "My breakout journal" & I wish to make a few general comments about his posts & relate it to the results of one of my portfolios currently being traded. (FYI - the strategy is not related to the Hybrid or the CAM strategy)

The portfolio in question is not important
I won't name or discuss the portfolio in question but I'll post the accurate trading results (as of yesterday) to give a better idea of the frustration that you can experience trading a strategy with patchy results. The strategy started its life on the 1st January 2019 & the dollar results are pleasing. The strategy is a 10 position portfolio that (IMHO) contributes to the fluctuating results, Trumps tweets could be another.

Low win rate
Currently I'm actively trading a few different portfolios & one of those portfolios have a low win rate of 39% with an acceptable 17% return. I'll use this portfolio to make the comments about a strategy that has a constant low win rate that invokes the urge to fiddle at the edges.




This strategy has lots of rules
Every trading strategy needs a set of well-defined rules because when it comes to trading there are “no rules" in this game. This level of freedom causes some traders to become overwhelmed & fearful, sometimes they will lose money because they just don’t 'know' what to do - or do next when things don't go to plan or turn pear shape.

Don’t break your rules
When dealing with large amounts of money, you tend to break your rules or make new ones along the way, solely for the purpose of justifying how you feel or what you think the market is doing or what the market is about to do.

Rules should be non-negotiable
Your trading rules should be set in stone even before you start investing one dollar into the markets.

It’s worth remembering
When you’re dealing with your own money, trading gets very complicated, very quickly.

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Hi Skate , I totally agree that needing a set of rules is important. I found after I reviewed the trading strategy that I was following based around what tech/a does wasn't working for me and allowed me to overtrade. Getting in trades that I shouldn't have taken so I changed the strategy entry to reduce my discretionary input into the trading and now follow a systematic entry. I know it will take time as losing trades are discarded mostly at the start and profitable ones are held and slowly add up in the portfolio.

 

[Gaz1991]

Hi guys,

I’m new to this forum but I would love some advice, information or some guidance on trading. What I’m looking for is a life coach or mentor to teach me the ropes on how to trade effectively for a long to medium term investment.

Thank you and any support would be appreciated.

 

[Skate]

Hi guys,

I’m new to this forum but I would love some advice, information or some guidance on trading. What I’m looking for is a life coach or mentor to teach me the ropes on how to trade effectively for a long to medium term investment.

Thank you and any support would be appreciated.

Hi @Gaz1991 welcome to the forum & welcome to my thread.

Trading is easy
My reply to you is designed in such a way for you to decide if you are after a quick fix being a few words of encouragement or whether you are truly committed to put in the hard yards to learn the craft. Learning how to trade successfully takes a long period of time to become good enough not to lose money. Trading is easy - making money from trading is the hard part.

Especially for you
The 'Dump it here' thread has been written especially for you & it's the perfect thread for all new traders starting out on their trading journey. Reading the 'Dump it here' thread is a big commitment, it will be exhausting but in the long run it will ground you in the basics giving you enough information to find your feet.

Free eBook
The thread has been condensed into a free eBook: "Trading Fundamentals - Skate's Beginners Version eBook"
Download the free eBook here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1014728/

A few facts to start

This is one example why traders lose money, our mind deceives us. Our mind is our worst enemy - the two tables above are exactly the same size - measure them to be sure. Now that you know these two tables are the same size yet our mind won't let them be. We are easy confused by what we see.

There are no short cuts

From my experience
It pays to listen to everyone & than you decide if it’s relevant or helpful. You get to decide what to keep & what to discard. When you don’t listen you forgo the right to learn.

Why should I read the 'Dump it here' thread?
It may save you many years of self-education if you have a slight interest in trading. I want to point out the dangers and pitfalls associated with trading and to inform you about the emotional roller coaster you will soon start experiencing once you start trading.

The Trading Game
Trading is a mathematics game, a game of probabilities and not percentages. Trading isn’t about getting rich, but more about one day having the financial independence of being able to support yourself without an income. Your financial freedom is at stake here, and there is no better time to start creating it than right now. Trading doesn’t have to be super complicated or time consuming. Also, you don’t have to be rich to get started.

Learning curve
Very few people succeed in this process as the learning curve is too steep and the correct psychology is too hard to implement. If you have any attachment to making money, and who doesn’t, it is very tough to trade successfully and correctly.

Success depends on two basic things:
1. Picking good stocks that increase in price, and
2. Effectively managing the stocks after you buy them.

Luck
To a great degree, our success or failure in the market is a function of our luck. We like to think that our results are a direct consequence of our insight and efforts, but the reality is that luck plays a big part in how we do.

Being afraid
People are afraid of things they don’t understand. It’s a shame, because trading shares is a lot less complex than most people think.

It's risky
Trading is risky as with any endeavour that offer good long term returns, however, risks can be minimised and returns can be magnified with the right strategy. Anyone can buy and sell shares, it’s how we choose these shares and then how we manage our position that dictates how successful we will be.

The quality of advice & traders vary
The "Aussie Stock Forum" is chock full of knowledgeable successful traders & its pays to read all the threads of any members who reply to you. Read & learn, align yourself with a member whose trading styles makes the most sense to you.

I'm the first to respond
This is a blatant plug, take your time, read my thread first, read my eBook not once but many times (it's a great read) & I can assure you that your journey has started on the right foot.

Best of luck..

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The CAM strategy is now full.
The CAM strategy has now filled the 25 positions of the portfolio - the initial capital allocation is $378,711 of the $400K set aside.

The need for - Rebalancing
Trading in the pre-auction necessitates dollar re-balancing of positions sizing. Re-balancing will be a direct correlation to the current trading account balance.

F.Y.I
Today’s end-of-trade results are posted as a milestone indicating the CAM strategy is now full & rearing to go. The post today is a ‘snap shot in time’ that will bear no resemblance to the end-of-the-week trading results I’ll post after 6pm Friday. The posted results are 100% accurate of the CAM's progess.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

Oh for the good old days, I recently rolled over a term deposit 2.3%, when will we return to long term average?

View attachment 95778 Current rates

Very interesting!
I have traded 12 stocks in and out since Feb. I decided to have no trading plan or correct mental attitude but I wanted to see what I would find doing random trading. Four fails, four wins, four break evens-ish, very, very poor result. I decided to just go back to Weinstein+. It works....for me.

Now this month I have begun for real. I have two stocks so far and the other two bits of money are DRPs that got caught when I closed in a hurry through injury a couple of years ago, which I must clean out one day. I am going slow with a maximum of $5000 per trade until I am happy I am getting this right.
View attachment 95773

Actively trading
The above has prompted me to post for those who are chasing better returns than 8% by actively trading the markets. Any endeavour that offers good long term returns carry a level of risk. Risk can be minimised and returns can be magnified trading the right strategy.

Returns since Jan 2019
I was 100% in cash at the 1st January 2019 & I'm now fully invested. The markets in the last 6 months have been very kind to me trading a similar style promoted in the 'Dump it here' thread. @captain black, @peter2 have both recently confirmed trading hasn't been too shabby over the last 6 months.

You can listen to too many
Reading various trading threads here at ASF sounds good in theory, but the problem is that getting so many different trading opinions & trading styles becomes confusing & in the end you won't know who to believe thus putting a handbrake on your trading.

Find your comfort level
By reading various trading threads you'll find out what works and what doesn't. The hardest part is finding yourself a setup you like, one that's simple and suits your mindset.

Paper trading
Become an expert in paper trading a strategy to start with, practice & practice & practice until you feel your strategy preforms well enough to give you the confidence to start trading. How you handle yourself in difficult times riding the emotional roller coaster will be the test of your mettle.

Simple is good
You'd be surprised how simple some methods top traders use & how few setups they have. Many of them specialise in just one or two setups.

Snippet
Call it chest beating, or what ever. @Ann was kind enough to cut a snippet of her holdings for all to see so I'm prepared to do the same to reinforce a point. The 27 position snippet below is from one of my strategies that is currently returning in excess of 8% the highest listed by @Value Collector.

Trading a mechanical system can be profitable. (snippet is before the start of trade today)


A great quote by @tech/a
Our aim is to identify opportunity --- to anticipate a move in our direction and take advantage of it. if we are right stay right for as long as our analysis anticipates further momentum in our direction all the while mitigating Risk and maximising profit. If Wrong----dont stay Wrong for TOO LONG!.

Skate.

 

[93Ceaudist]

Never too late to start doing what you love most.

 

[aus_trader]

Skate, sorry for my ignorance but I didn't understand the bit from your post which is listed below. Could you please explain a little more.

the highest listed by @Value Collector.

 

[Skate]

Skate, sorry for my ignorance but I didn't understand the bit from your post which is listed below. Could you please explain a little more.

Hi @aus_trader, sorry for the confusion the graphic that I referenced came across as a hyperlink ONLY that @Value Collector posted ( View attachment 95778 Current rates )

My Graphic
I posted a snippet displaying 27 of my current positions that have exceeded 8% all within the last 6 months of trading. It was a visual representation of what can be achieve from actively rather than passively investing your funds. My current returns posted above range from 8.46% to 104.49%

The highest return quoted in the graphic below is 8.2%. (This is the missing Graphic from my previous post)


The Thread: Alternatives to Term Deposit? I was referencing this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1032461/

I was fumbling to say
Since January, I have 27 positions exceeding the return of 8.2%. If you wanted to chase better returns than the 8% I was suggesting actively trading the markets using a system explained in the 'Dump it here' thread.

Trading as with any endeavour that offers good long term returns do carry an added level of risk. I also remarked you can minimise the risk while at the same time magnifying your returns with the right strategy.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[aus_trader]

Hi @aus_trader, sorry for the confusion the graphic that I referenced came across as a hyperlink ONLY that @Value Collector posted ( View attachment 95778 Current rates )

My Graphic
I posted a snippet displaying 27 of my current positions that have exceeded 8% all within the last 6 months of trading. It was a visual representation of what can be achieve from actively rather than passively investing your funds. My current returns posted above range from 8.46% to 104.49%

The highest return quoted in the graphic below is 8.2%. (This is the missing Graphic from my previous post)
View attachment 95786

The Thread: Alternatives to Term Deposit? I was referencing this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1032461/

I was fumbling to say
Since January, I have 27 positions exceeding the return of 8.2%. If you wanted to chase better returns than the 8% I was suggesting actively trading the markets using a system explained in the 'Dump it here' thread.

Trading as with any endeavour that offers good long term returns do carry an added level of risk. I also remarked you can minimise the risk while at the same time magnifying your returns with the right strategy.

Skate.

All clear, thanks for the explanation Skate.

 

[Skate]

Gee, I’m lazy
We all tend to be lazy making excuses at every turn why we don’t do things. I’ve made the time over the last week to read a few older post & boy they are chock-a-block full of helpful information. Reading these older posts has prompted me to make another post in the ‘Dump it here’ thread, a pep talk for a better word, simple stuff that is sometimes worth repeating.

It might be you
If you have a great trading system, one that consistently makes you money, it is mostly that you are the one that’s making the system work that was reinforced to me by @Gringotts Bank a few posts back. How you handle yourself in the difficult times removing the fear of losing money will be the decider in becoming consistently successful.

It’s about making decisions
No matter how successful a system is or how good your rules are, consistent profits will be difficult to obtain without training yourself to be aware when your emotions start to rise to the surface taking over your decision process.

Confidence is the key
Ridding yourself of the emotional fear starts by having confidence in your strategy, this has been reinforced many times to me by @captain black - understanding what the strategy was capable of in the past, paper trading the system into the future, understanding & accepting what can happen if the trade fails – being emotionally & mentally prepared to handle the side effects of losing money goes to the very heart of confidence.

Measured risk
Unsuccessful traders tend to think more about losing money more often than not, constantly passing up potential opportunity that a measured risk provides. Traders will continue to pass up on potential opportunities because they are too scared to lose. @peter2 reinforces risk calculations in most of his post so it pays to listen & learn from him.

Trading
Losing is part of the game & if you can accept this, you are half way there. Heck you may even eventually become successful. It pays for you to be the best loser you can possibly be. The markets are emotional that’s a given because humans are the emotional drivers of the markets & these emotions never seem to change. I hate when rational people go out of their way to constantly make irrational decision, I find it a battle just to keep up with them.

Longevity is your one job
Losing will always be emotional & it will always hurt but how you handle yourself in these times will be the deciding factor how long you keep playing this game.

Words
Don’t focus on the losing aspect even though it’s an important part of trading. Never ever use the words “if only” don’t use any word that has an “if” in it - as in “what-if”. @tech/a has written so many great posts & I reference them for only one reason & that reason is 'experience'. His words have come from his experience.

Not long now
In recent posts it appears @captain black & @tech/a interest has been reignited confirming both are about to post more about the nitty gritty of trading & for one I can't wait. It's a real shame knowing to gain experience it consumes so much time & effort, it's a real pity we're not able to download experience like we do with most computer programs.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Valuable words skate for everyone following a systematic trading plan.

You posts and some PMs helped prompt me to ruthlessly track my trading performance versus the model each week this year. I actually ("sort of....") thought I had been doing that for years, but copying each signal and position from the model and comparing performance against actual positions/returns showed a number of insidious compromises. Every little tweak or modification I had made to "improve" things almost always proved to have reduced returns.

This led to 2 changes in my weekly routine:

1. Ensure every component of my entries and exit logic was graphically indicated on charts. Doing so rubbed my nose in something the system "wanted to do" I hadn't been doing consistently on exits in the past - essentially I hadn't been correctly implementing one of my 2 trailing stops (insert embarrased emoji!). An unanticipated benefit of this more "clockwork" approach is an extra layer of trust entering new buy and sell signals - perhaps there is now another layer of "ownership" forcing myself to repeat a defined process over and over and removing the temptation of tweak on the fly when a buy signal for some ticker I've never heard of pops out.

2. Record weekly performance against the system modelled returns - and "Score" my performance tracking against it. Record the reasons for any difference and check their validity. Examples of valid variations might include:
- paper positions open before go-live trading date
- not getting filled in your order
- trading halts, takeover offers

In any case, I'm sure my returns have been significanty better over the first 6 months of this year than they would have been without these "skate-tweaks". I was also more than bit peeved to realise my system was "smarter" than the guy that created in some ways - it would appear I have much more to learn if my "trading discretion" is ever going to add value to the equity curve!

One other thought. Developing a decent process and then the confidence to stick to it is, I suspect, an iterative process for most. Over the years you gain experience writing better code/processes, and your experience through various market conditions helps you improve your confidence and trading accuracy. This might include an improvement in the risk:return metrics for those strategies you choose to stick with, which of course improves enthusiasm, confidence, accuracy. The learning and challenges never stop, and like most complex skills it is probably unreasonable to expect modelled returns in the first 3-5 years. Even if your equity curve struggles to curve upwards in those initial years, sticking in there to consistently find and sqaush errors (and ego) will eventually improve your returns, confidence, etc, etc....

 

[Skate]

If this doesn't excite you nothing will!!!

View attachment 95834

Not long now
In recent posts it appears @captain black & @tech/a interest has been reignited confirming both are about to post more about the nitty gritty of trading & for one I can't wait. It's a real shame knowing to gain experience it consumes so much time & effort, it's a real pity we're not able to download experience like we do with most computer programs.

Skate.

There is a perfect 'chart' example in @tech/a Thread that illustrates his experience at work: Learning Technical Analysis and its Practical Application - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1033030/

The security charted is (GBT) & most would be able to follow along as the signals being displayed are very obvious, but most charts are not so obvious - the chart remark is: "Now take a good look at this chart, you can't tell me that VOLUME & PATTERN aren't telling you a strong & compelling story !!"

The compelling argument for systematic trading

Valuable words skate for everyone following a systematic trading plan.

A great quote by @tech/a
Our aim is to identify opportunity --- to anticipate a move in our direction and take advantage of it. if we are right stay right for as long as our analysis anticipates further momentum in our direction all the while mitigating Risk and maximising profit. If Wrong----don't stay Wrong for TOO LONG!.

I made the remark in my post above - "it's a real pity we're not able to download experience like we do with most computer programs"

It is a pity experience can't be downloaded but you can code it. Being a systematic trend trader, coding a trading system that jumps on 'confirmed' trends (confirmed is the key word) takes the skill of experience out of the equation by a few lines of code. Whereas other trend trading systems will wait for a pullback within a trend, sometimes taking advantage of a trend continuations. There are a multitude of ways to code a system to achieve the same results.

@tech/a (GTB) Daily CHART used to explain the setup pattern


The same weekly chart of (GBT) displaying the HYBRID buy signal
The Hybrid Strategy is all over 'confirmed' trends.


This is the weekly CAM Strategy chart jumping on (GBT) - a 'countertrend' setup
The CAM strategy looks for pullbacks & countertrend conditions. It just so happened that the signal in this case was a countertrend & it developed much earlier than the Hybrid breakout signal. The countertrend developed because the (ADX) was declining while the (MACD) was rising, two simple indicators confirming a countertrend in motion. With systematic trading nothing works perfectly but the examples above & below shows that sometimes they get it right.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

I posted the charts with buy and sell signals of AQG and SLR in my futures thread last week and the current charts of both are good examples of short term momentum trading.

There was a quote by @peter2 in @Skate 's thread a few weeks ago about trading in thin markets.
For short term trading it's important to have a proactive rather than reactive exit. Reactive exits work well for trend following systems. You take the exit when there is confirmation of a change in trend. If you're short term trading in small caps waiting for confirmation means you end up selling into a very thin depth on the buy side and taking a big hit from the resulting slippage.

Both AQG and SLR show where price has stalled after the exit. If price takes off again strongly then I'll likely get another entry signal.

View attachment 95859

View attachment 95860

Trading different time frames
I'm a current holder of the two securities referenced in @captain black thread so it's a reason for me to make a separate post in the 'Dump it here' thread showing charts trading in different time frames.

The reference is from this thread: Captain Black's Share Trading Thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1033102/

Weekly time frame v Short term trading
Trend trading in a weekly time frame as the captain explains uses a reactive exit. Reactive exits will always give back some open profits but that's par for the course. Watching open profits evaporate while waiting for the week to complete can be painful but trading a weekly system you have to accept this. For short term trading you can be proactive with your exits alleviating the mental gymnastics of a weekly system. Reactive exits work well for my weekly trend following systems combining stalling momentum with a 'confirmed' change in trend gets me out pretty quick but as I've said before, waiting for the week to end is sometimes excruciating.

Why don't I trade lower time frames?
For one very good reason - I lack the skill to code a profitable trend following systems in lower time frames. Trading in lower time frames requires skill - you only have to look at the captains yearly results to understand the level of skill he has.

Disclaimer
I hold both (AQG) as well as (SLR) & they are both currently travelling nicely at the moment. I would like to take the opportunity to display both charts for (AQG) & (SLR) to compare short term trading verses a longer weekly trading system entry & exit signals. It requires skill to be nimble & agile trading in lower time frames, something I can only wish for.

The captains chart (AQG) entry & exit signal


My Hybrid Chart (AQG) showing the entry signal


The captains chart (SLR) entry & exit signal


My Hybrid Chart (SLR) showing the entry signal


Freedom
Short term trading allows you the freedom to be a proactive when it comes to your exits - @captain black, @peter2 & @tech/a all use proactive exits & there are examples in their respective threads whereas I'm stuck trading with a reactive exit - sitting through the pain watching the price spiraling out of my control sometimes.

Override your exits
Will I think about overriding the exits of my systems to alleviate the pain & save myself a few dollars in doing so - Heck NO !!

It's not my job to think - I've got one JOB to do when it comes to trading & that one job is to follow my system without fail..

Summary
Proactive exits are a lot less stressful than reactive exits, that's a given.

Skate.

 

[captain black]

Great post @Skate and a couple of nice trades there in your Hybrid system

It's not my job to think - I've got one JOB to do when it comes to trading & that one job is to follow my system without fail..

 

[willoneau]

No pain skate if you only look at your weekly system on weekends.

 

[Newt]

Congrats on your AQG and SLR trades Skate, and thanks for sharing detail on how you hopped on board both of these according to your systematic rules.

I think you've mentioned before valuable trading podcasts, and here in Australia we've been fortunate to have Aaron Fifield (Chat with Traders) and Andrew Swanscott (Better System Trader) putting out a lot of fantastic material. The most recent Better System Trader podcast is a nice one for established traders and newbies alike. Steve Ward talks about the inevitable "J curve" to profitability most traders endure and ways of reducing the depth and time in drawdown before (hopefully) establishing sustainable profitability. Most new traders probably also suffer from a dose of over-optimism and Dunning-Kruger effect.....

Some other great material in this episode too:
Better System Trader Episode 164

.