Dump it Here

[rnr]

Hi Skate,

Thank you once again for taking the time to respond to my question.

I am sure there are a number of ASF members, either developing or considering developing their own system, who will benefit significantly from the information you have disclosed/discussed in your response.

This comment you made in an earlier post (#1753) "The buy code is wrapped around another 1,260 lines of code" gives an indication to the number of issues considered prior to your system firing off a BUY signal.

Cheers,
Rob

 

[Skate]

The CAM strategy Repository found here - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1028382/

Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st January 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


2. CAM Strategy Dashboard


The CAM Strategy evaluation has now come to an end
The evaluation of the CAM strategy has now been completed. This will be my last update of the CAM Strategy paper trading.

Going Live
The CAM strategy goes live on Tuesday 11th June 2019.

Mission Statement
"Seek to achieve an average weekly profit of $1,000 from a $300,000 investment”.

Weekly Report
I’ll be simplifying my weekly post by concentrating on the trading progress of the CAM strategy keeping the ‘Dump it here’ thread active.

Skate.

 

[barney]

The CAM strategy goes live on Tuesday 11th June 2019.

Well done and good luck

 

[Skate]

The MAP strategy Repository found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1028382/

Skate's MAP Strategy Settings
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: 1st May 2019)
$300,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$15,000 Fixed Positions

1. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly


2. MAP Strategy Dashboard


This brings to an END the weekly reporting of the May 2019 MAP Strategy

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Repository of information can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1028382/

The strategies that have been under evaluation
The CAM, MAP & BOX strategies are all weekly trend following systems under evaluation & they stem from a few simple ideas.

The Top Section of the Graphics
The top graphics are the trading results of the 3 strategies currently under evaluation from the 1st January 2019 up to end-of-trade today.

The Bottom Section of the Graphics
The bottom graphics are the trading results of the 3 strategies currently under evaluation from the 1st May 2019 up to end-of-trade today.

All of the graphics in the top & bottom sections are the trading results using the same strategy with different trade start date.



This brings to an END the weekly comparison reporting of the 3 Strategies

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Great exercise, keep us informed on your progress.

 

[kid hustlr]

Skate,

Nothing more certain that a market top is in than turning a system from paper trading to live!

Best of luck, this is a great thread

 

[Skate]

It's a quite day so I'll make a few general comments.

Successful trading
Successful trading is like getting pregnant. Everyone congratulates you when you manage it but no one asks how many times you got fu¢ked first.

@verce in the "tny-tinybeans-group" thread is the perfect example, he's riding the wave of success without any of us knowing the journey he had to endure to get to his level of euphoria.

It's all about off-loading
Successful trading is all about buying a position solely in the hope of being able to off-load it to someone else at a higher price, so lets not try & complicate trading in the hope of making ourselves look like a trading genius. Pure & simple, good traders are calculated risk takers.

Risk
Risk is a fine balancing act of been stopped out early only to see the price recover 'or' watching the price keep falling and stopping you out at a much larger loss. Knowing when to sell also involves profit taking and not just accepting losses. Risk management is crucial when it comes to trading successfully as posted many times by @peter2 in his "p2-asx-weekly-portfolio" thread. The last post on his thread is about 'Trade Management' & it's a recommended read.

It's complicated
First off, when it comes to risk you first need to find your level as risk varies between traders. Risk plays an important part in my Backtesting procedure & when it comes to risk management it's important to 'Dance to the music being played', or it's simply a matter of 'Horses for courses' take your pick.

Parameters
The graphic below displays some of the parameters I use to evaluate various risks using a variety of position sizing methods. The Exportation procedure is more intense than backtesting as the variables & parameters increase.

if I backtest the system, I have real life gain of $2017 vs backtest $5215
interesting difference, where does it come from?

Backtesting & Monet Carlo runs
To me, backtesting gives a base comparison at best, a comparison between strategies or within a strategy. Backtesting & real live trading 'in my opinion' will never truly align as there is so many variables. Backtesting on historical data means JACK, 'out-of-sample' data is the only true measure of value, meaning paper trading is the only real measure of a systems worth.

Its not a level playing field
There is no way any of us sitting at home with limited information, slow internet service using off the shelf trading software can find better investments than the professional trader or the multi nationals that spends millions of dollars on research having easy access to company management. These companies employs teams of people who have the sharpest, fastest & sometimes the most unethical minds in the world - that's who you are trading against.

It's worth remembering
You're up against traders who will have more experience, more information & much more money than you so leave all your dreams of making quick and easy money, behind & concentrate on your survival. Your absolute first goal is to learn how to stay in the game & as with boxing you need to keep on your feet at all times, that's your one job.

The truth is, you need money to make money
Forget about taking a $1,000 account and turn it into millions. That is achieved through gambling, not trading. Instead, you should look to make an average of 25% per year & to achieve this it all depends on your risk appetite and trading style.

What 25% returns will buy
On a $20,000 account, you're looking at an average of $5,000 per year. (Xmas presents for the family)
On a $100,000 account, you're looking at an average of $25,000 per year. (this will Buy me one extra position)
On a $300,000 account, you're looking at an average of $75k per year. (this will meet the 'CAM Strategy' Mission Statement)
On a $1m account, you're looking at an average of $250k per year. (a couple of World Cruises)

This is extremely important, but most traders don’t get it, your account size matters.

If you needed evidence to trade the smaller priced stocks which generally show greater price volatility in preference to the larger priced stocks with lower volatility, this and some results recently shown by @investtrader (in skates Dump it Here thread) are it.

PositionScore (Ranking your signals)
A good strategy has many key features giving you a fighting chance of survival, longevity as a trader is your number one job. 'PositionScore' is an important ingredient & @investtrader made a great post in relation to 'positionscore' for the benefit of others. I'm sure he knew I was aware of this.

@investtrader posted in the hope of helping others, the very essence of the 'Dump it here' thread.

Skate.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I think small priced stocks are still the best playing field for most traders. The only big fish in this space are the microcap funds. I don't believe the microcap funds attract the 'best and brightest', so whilst this space is definitely manipulated, I don't think it's a very sophisticated form of manipulation. You can still win trading ASX speccies, but it's obviously not scalable.

 

[captain black]

The evaluation of the CAM strategy has now been completed. This will be my last update of the CAM Strategy paper trading.

Great job getting through the paper trading evaluation period

The CAM strategy goes live on Tuesday 11th June 2019.

Well done on getting another trading system up and running live.

 

[Newt]

It's a quite day so I'll make a few general comments.

Successful trading
Successful trading is like getting pregnant. Everyone congratulates you when you manage it but no one asks how many times you got fu¢ked first.

Skate.

 

[investtrader]

I think small priced stocks are still the best playing field for most traders. The only big fish in this space are the microcap funds. I don't believe the microcap funds attract the 'best and brightest', so whilst this space is definitely manipulated, I don't think it's a very sophisticated form of manipulation. You can still win trading ASX speccies, but it's obviously not scalable.

I think you can scale it a bit more than you think. I use a liquidity filter and it is hard to trade really thin stocks. But, I know from testing that the average price the week following the signal is not a lot different than monday's open. So what you can do is trade a few times in the week without moving the market too much. I suggest say placing orders at the same time & day each week. So if you want a 100k position, you might trade Monday to Thursday @ 25k each trade. at say 3.30pm for example. This is actually how the micro cap managers trade -have someone continually placing smaller trades over time. Getting out is the same but can be harder. But some big drops happen on these stocks so you just have to be prepared to accept that.

 

[peter2]

re. exiting trades in thin markets

My day trading mentor (yes I have one, why wouldn't I) always reminds me to exit when I can NOT when I have to.

This is why I often sell into a price spike up when the volume is huge. I'm selling when I can, not when I have to.

 

[investtrader]

re. exiting trades in thin markets

My day trading mentor (yes I have one, why wouldn't I) always reminds me to exit when I can NOT when I have to.

This is why I often sell into a price spike up when the volume is huge. I'm selling when I can, not when I have to.

I don’t trade shorter term ....I don’t know of a way to ride long term trends without waiting until the trend ends

 

[Skate]

 

[willoneau]

Quick question Skate and maybe nit picking , but looking at your cam results how can you have one losing trade but no closed trade? unless you include open position but in the red i guess but it could still become a wining trade once closed?

 

[Skate]

Quick question Skate and maybe nit picking , but looking at your cam results how can you have one losing trade but no closed trade? unless you include open position but in the red i guess but it could still become a wining trade once closed?

Hi @willoneau

Thank you for your question & I can assure you that your not nit picking, "if you don't know, you don't know"

Let me post two graphic & I'll explain what they mean..


The CAM strategy has currently 7 winners & one loser (at the moment)


These are the corresponding trades listed above.


THE LOSER - This is what the Chart looks like for the losing trade (NWL)


A WINNER - This is the chart to show you what a winner looks like (IEL)


To understand the colour coding of the bars on the charts above additional information can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1028382/

The CAM strategy
1. The CAM strategy has traded for 4 days.
2. There are (8) open positions
3. (7) positions are in profit & (1) is a loser at the moment.
4. There are no closed trades.
5. I trade in the pre-auction only.

Live Trading
I've condensed my weekly report to display the 'Dashboard' & 'Line Chart' only for the CAM Strategy. All the information is listed in the Dashboard with corresponding coloured squares to denote the progress ("a picture paint a thousand words")

The last thing I want to do with my weekly reporting of the CAM strategy is to post so much information that it becomes exhausting to read, turning people off the thread. Your question gives me the opportunity to explain the Dashboard in a little more detail & I'm sure if it was unclear to you it would be unclear to others as well.

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Thanx Skase , I did notice the difference between your losing and closed trades. So your winning and losing trades would actually be position not trade because you haven't actually traded is that right?

 

[qldfrog]

I think Skate means currently losing, not sold at a loss

 

[willoneau]

Yes I think so too, so maybe should be 7 winning positions and one losing position.
As I said just nit picking.