Dump it Here

[Skate]

Why tell us this ?
To explain the importance of rules when it comes to trading, we need a plan. In the next series of posts I want to explain that we have the amazing ability to write our own future when it comes to trading.

Tell us why
It's because we have a unique ability to start of with a "blank piece of paper" to write our plan & future.

Planning
Having a trading plan is about creating an extraordinary quality of life, living life on our terms & a trading plan somewhat go to secures this aspiration.

Over the next few days
I have commitments today, nevertheless I'm eager to start explaining a trading plan, a trading strategy.

Skate.

 

[willy1111]

OFF Topic

Is it only me or is everyone at the moment making a bucket load of money ?

The tradings gods have been kind (very generous) to me in January, I don't want January to end.

Skate.

This is why I like to use percentages as it puts everything into context for comparison.

Some one might say my portfolio went up $100K this month, for most people $100k is a lot of money - it is more than the average wage in Australia for a whole year.

On a portfolio of $100K this represents a 100% return which is remarkable - on a portfolio of $1M it is a 10% return which is really good - on a portfolio of $10M it is merely 1% which when compared to the market being up 4% is not so great.

Talking in percentage terms provides a much better basis for comparison in my view.

I believe even the Turtles talked in n as a much better comparison method than using $'s.

Would you like to say how you have gone in January in percentage terms? Take the current figure, minus the starting balance at beginning of Jan and divide by the beginning balance

My real money account is up about 2.5% for Jan and my Hypothetical is up about 4.73%. So depending on the account size, it could be a bucket load or a drip

 

[Skate]

This is why I like to use percentages as it puts everything into context for comparison.

Some one might say my portfolio went up $100K this month, for most people $100k is a lot of money - it is more than the average wage in Australia for a whole year.

On a portfolio of $100K this represents a 100% return which is remarkable - on a portfolio of $1M it is a 10% return which is really good - on a portfolio of $10M it is merely 1% which when compared to the market being up 4% is not so great.

Talking in percentage terms provides a much better basis for comparison in my view.

I believe even the Turtles talked in n as a much better comparison method than using $'s.

Would you like to say how you have gone in January in percentage terms? Take the current figure, minus the starting balance at beginning of Jan and divide by the beginning balance

My real money account is up about 2.5% for Jan and my Hypothetical is up about 4.73%. So depending on the account size, it could be a bucket load or a drip

Let me add to your post about percentages. (long winded reply but its important to me)

Detailed explanation
Thank you for posting a detailed explanation on the power of percentages, putting everything into perspective for others to understand is very important point to remember, the reason we are posting is to pass on knowledge. Every thing you say about percentages is true, accurate & educational.

I'm fascinated
willy1111, I enjoy hearing alternative views & how people relate to them. I'm fascinated with the power of words & mathematics, they can be pushed & pulled to achieve a desired outcome.

3 sides to any story
There are always 3 sides to any story, there side, your side & the truth, meaning we slant stories to booster the outcome of the conversation our way.

A bucket load of money
I never talk in personal detail as I know what I can do with a sniff of information. The generic term I used is relevant to most, its universally applicable.

Another reference
In a conversation I'll drop the word "you know that sort" they can relate the story to whatever "that sort" means to them.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Percentages & probabilities
This gives me the opportunity to carry the conversation a little further & talk about percentages & probabilities.

True story
Back when I was younger & Mike Tyson (the boxer) was at his peak my mate at the time said "How do you think you would go against Mike Tyson?"

I replied "I'd have a 50% chance of winning" my mate nodded in agreement & said "yeah, I agree" (at this stage I'm thinking, he's delusional)

Truth
I had to explain to him it was a "tongue in cheek" comment, even though the statement was 100% true.

What does a 50% chance mean ?
There was potentially two outcomes (1) I would win or (2) I would lose. (2 possibilities / 1 outcome = 50/50 chance)

Now lets talk about probabilities
I've been in scary situations, I've been knocked out once & going up against Mike Tyson, it would probably make it twice.

Let's recap
I had a 50% chance of winning, but the probability of me winning "Zero to None" (reality)

As traders
It's good to talk about percentages on things we know, but let's talk about probabilities on the things we don't.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

This was a nice winner - I'll post up a bad loser next

Skate.

View attachment 91534

I want to stay on the theme of my trading style "Trend Trading" & explain it in a simple "line chart" with explanations.

Resolute Mining Limited
The chart of (RSG) Resolute Mining Limited on 21st January 2019, Post #1060 explains the way trend followers view a trade.

Price bound
(RSG) was price bound for a long time, it had a trial breakout that didn't work whereas the second breakout worked.

It's our job
My strategy gave a signal so as a trend trader it's our job to jump on the move. When the trend is over it's our job to hop off. This is a simple way to trade, but effective. Jump on the breakout & ride it till it's over.

Classic trend following
The setup and exits are classic trend following signals. Enter on a confirmed uptrend, exit when the trend turns down.

In between the signals, just hang on for the ride
No matter what your selection criteria was, or what has motivated you to place a ‘buy’ order, you have to realise everything is out of your control from that point on till you elect to sell, so in the mean time just hang on for the ride.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

View attachment 91754
"Skate's Trends & Countertrends Weekly Strategy"

If you would like a copy of the Amibroker Strategy you need to meet a few conditions

1. Have a copy of Amibroker Version 6.2 or higher (the strategy requires this version or higher)
2. Hit "Like" (so I can keep track)
3. Send me a 'PM' (ASAP)

My favourite two words are:
1. Please
2. Thanks

When you request the strategy all you need to post is: Strategy please, thanks.

Skate

# Apologies
This post is long, but it's important for members who have requested a copy of the CAM strategy

For those who have the CAM strategy
This post is directed at you, as members who have a copy of the "Trends & Countertrends Weekly Strategy". I've had a few comments & questions about the strategy (all positive by the way)

Standard CAM strategy
The coded idea is not mine but I have modified the original idea & coded it so I could give it a test run on the Aussie Market (that is the code I supplied to you)

It's Okay
In its basic form the CAM strategy performs okay. The original code gives pleasing results but add a few more bells & whistles, it starts to fly, it grows legs. (all you have to do is find them)

Before you ask, why didn't I get the upgraded strategy ?
After I did a few tweaks getting the strategy to run on our Aussie market, that became the base code (the copy you have). Then I started fiddling with the code to see what I could squeezed out the strategy. Those alterations/features/parameters are a "secret" for a better word, the parameters & additional features form part of my Hybrid Strategy.

What's next
(a) I'll post the standard parameters that your strategy has compared to the parameters I have (the updated CAM strategy), my parameters may give you some ideas.

(b) I'll post the [Explore] signal you get to see "compared" to what I get to see after the [Explore] has been completed.

(c) I'm not interested in the original report, I just want to know three things

(1) what to Buy
(2) how many shares to buy
(3) what price to offer in the pre-auction (simple & boring)

(CCI) Background colours
I'll post two chart so others can see the chart with "NO" (CCI) background colours & than I'll show the exact same chart with (CCI) background colours. A picture paints a thousand words. As a trend trader, (a mechanical system trader) charts are not needed, the charts are nothing more than a representation of crowd behaviour.

(a) Standard parameters of your strategy



(a) The parameters of the updated CAM strategy




(b) The [Explore] signal you get to see



(b) The [Explore] signal I get to see (No deciphering, it tells me what I have to do)




The CAM strategy chart
The chart below is with "NO" (CCI) background colours. The "Buy signal" (ARQ) is listed above in the [Explore] report & displayed on the chart with the corresponding "Sell signal" (this trade was a winner)



The CCI coloured strategy chart
The chart below is with the (CCI) background colours. When the (CCI) is greater than Zero (CCI > 0) the Background colour is 'green' & when the (CCI) is less than Zero (CCI < 0) the Background colour is 'red'


Skate.

Post exclusively for:
@qldfrog
@Newt
@Lone Wolf
@Wyatt
@willy1111
@Habakkuk
@jjbinks

 

[Skate]

The CAM strategy update, this the last post on this subject matter (CAM Star Updated strategy results)

Now closed
This is the final post in the series of the CAM strategy & after this post the (CAM strategy discussion is NOW closed)

What can be achieved
I wish to supply Backtest results to indicate what increases can be achieved from the CAM strategy. In its basic form the CAM strategy performs okay.

Tweaking
The original code gives pleasing results but add a few more bells & whistles, it starts to fly, it grows legs. (all you have to do is find them)


# Comparison reports (to encourage you to look for improvements)


The 'CAM Strategy' (the copy you have) Trading results 'without' tweaking (1st July 2017 to 30th June 2018)



This is your 'CAM Strategy' Portfolio results 'without' tweaking (1st July 2017 to 30th June 2018)



This is my updated 'CAM Strategy' Trading results "with tweaking" (1st July 2017 to 30th June 2018)



This is my updated 'CAM Strategy' Portfolio results "with tweaking" (1st July 2017 to 30th June 2018)


Skate.

This post is exclusively for:
@qldfrog
@Newt
@Lone Wolf
@Wyatt
@willy1111
@Habakkuk
@jjbinks

 

[qldfrog]

Much appreciated Skate, the onus is on us doing our job now.
I do not expect a quick solution but my amibroker version is upgraded, all asx data up to date and linked.the challenge is for us to beat your optimised version and of course, the least will be to share any better result if any with you
I will keep quite and focus from this week end

 

[Skate]

America’s cup challenge (1983)
I have a friend who was a “grinder” on the yacht that challenged for the America’s cup. He's a big tough guy with a kind heart. (a grinder operates the manual winches)

It hangs proudly in my office
He had the crew sign a (poster size) promotional poster for me that hangs proudly in my office to remind me that us Aussies are up to the challenge. (sadly not everyone who signed the poster is with us today)

We did it
Ben Lexcen is one who is sadly is no longer with today. Ben is famous for the winged keel design applied to Australia II which John Bertrand skippered to victory in 1983, becoming the first non-American yacht to win the prestigious America's Cup in 132 years

Man with a plan
Bertrand and his crew had a plan, a deliberate strategy, a psychological strategy ahead of the America's Cup challenge & his breakthrough was in refusing to refer to the all-conquering American team by their names & it worked.

Why post about a yacht race
Because they had a plan, a strategy to win a yacht race (over a series of runs) so let me summarise:

(1) They had a plan (we can use that analogy & call it a trading plan)
(2) They had a strategy (we can call this analogy a trading strategy)

Success
They didn’t want to compete, they wanted to win & as traders we should have the same spirit.

A blatant Qantas catchphrase but it’s still worth a mention
“Australia's yachtsman have always had the right spirit”

A bit of trivia
Ben Lexcen was born "Robert Clyde Miller" if anyone is interested.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Much appreciated Skate, the onus is on us doing our job now.
I do not expect a quick solution but my amibroker version is upgraded, all asx data up to date and linked.the challenge is for us to beat your optimised version and of course, the least will be to share any better result if any with you
I will keep quite and focus from this week end

Accuracy
The optimization was for the accuracy of signal, the performance increase is just a bonus. Please do your own research as I don't trade the CAM strategy, I have better.

Good potential
The CAM strategy has potential & the backtest results was to demonstrate what you can do with a good idea, there is no need for us to reinvent the wheel.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I want to pose a rhetorical question (meaning it doesn't require an answer, but it requires you to think of one)

Not related to trading
Imagine if I gave you a piece of A4 printer paper & said "do something with it & give it back to me in a week"

What would do with with that sheet of paper ?

Skate

Same question
I posed the same rhetorical question to my wife.

A4 printer paper
"Imagine if I gave you a piece of A4 printer paper & said "do something with it & give it back to me in a week" What would do with that sheet of paper ?

I'll show you
She said I won't tell you I'll show you what I'll do. I said no, it's a rhetorical question & left it at that.

Kindy painting
Like all proud grandparents we have artwork proudly displayed on the fridge held there by fridge magnets, well we did have. I must admit the painting was crappy, typical of a 5 year old, but now I see the beauty of it all.

Most rise
Give someone a challenge & most time they rise to it.

This is what she did
What did my wife do with a piece of A4 printer paper, she made a box.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I wish to make a series of posts about importance of having a trading plan. (I've done a lot of ground work already & some wouldn't have noticed, where others have)

Paraphrase
When it comes to Business, financials or trading matter my mind is as sharp as the next & I have a good memory. Most times I can trot out phrases & recite paragraphs out of books word for word or at least paraphrase those words to achieve greater clarity.

Nope, never forgotten anything I can remember
I've been told I have a good memory (which is in question) but what not in questions is this statement, "I've never forgotten anything I can remember" (tongue in cheek comment)

Trading plan
I've been thinking how to approach this topic, on one hand I want the beginners to understand we need a plan, we need a strategy, we need to have purpose, we need to have an endgame. Writing in this manner is going to bore some & entertain others, I want to keep post in the same vein of this thread & write as if nobody knows anything about trading.

I don't know anything about trading how does it all work ?
Over the next few post I'll let you know, there will be a series of post.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

We need a plan
Trading isn’t about getting rich, (repeating myself) it's not the endgame we are after. But one day you might have the financial independence to support yourself without working for someone. That's the end game.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Starting Can Be Easy But we need a plan
Trading doesn’t have to be super complicated or time consuming. Also, you don’t have to be rich either. There are plenty of easy ways to get started without having a bucket load of money.

Won't have a go
Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing their money.You shouldn't let this hold you back, you can learn as you go by trading small positions.

The cost of education
If you make a mistake small loses are bearable. Making small mistakes now will giving you the skills and experience you need to make the right decisions later on. It's learning on the job.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Investment strategy rather than trading (IMHO, there is a difference)

A new member 'Scott' asked a very good question
"I have around $1000 a month to invest. I realise if I had a lump sum, it is better to invest in one fell swoop, but as I only have the $1000 available each month"

Total bullsh!t
I get asked this all the time, mostly from friends who want to start trading but say they haven't got enough money to start. Which to me is total bullsh!t .

Summer Olympic Games
1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympic Games we had a mascot, not that many people remember him, but I do. The Australian Mascot was called "Willy" & his slogan was "Where there is a WILL there is a way" & that's worth remembering.

Comprehensive answer
I gave Scott a comprehensive answer so I won't clog up this series of posts, I'll supply the hyperlink for others to read if interested, as others may be in the same boat.

Found here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dca-strategy-question.34512/#post-1012071

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The typical beginner
The typical beginner will usually be worried more about when to enter a trade than anything else. They think little of risk management, or even bother to plan when to sell. Because of this, when a trade begins to turn against them, they hold with the hope of coming back to even or their former profit level. Worse off, they may average down, in effect doubling down on a loser. Then quit trading all together.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A trading plan
A well-timed entry could help your returns, but factors such as how much of each stock to buy and when to sell will always be more significant in the long run.

It's scary when it's your money
A trading plan considers all aspects of managing a systematic portfolio, removing all emotional biases, especially when it comes time to sell. This is very difficult for some people to achieve because when dealing with large amounts of money, you tend to break your rules or make new ones along the way, solely for the purpose of justifying how you feel at the moment.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

If you plan to use the 'Trend following system'
I use a weekly trend following strategy & place my orders before the market opens hoping to be settled at the opening price of the day. It also makes backtesting simulations much easier & a lot more accurate.

When I started my first trend following strategy
I immediately went into a 3-month drawdown before coming up to even. Luckily, I expected this as returns in trend following are large yet sparse compared to the many, smaller losses. Therefore it is very likely when you enter such a strategy, you will enter in a drawdown. Some can handle trading like this others can't. It's just the nature of the beast.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Your ability to understand your plan
The ability to understand your plan will serve you well, it's probably the best way to deal with uncertainty that you will start to feel when starting out on the journey.

Let get some rules
The scariest thing about trading is the lack of rules, well there aren't any. The first thing we need to do is to make up some rules, rules we can stick with.

I'll get around to rules soon..

Skate.

 

[Skate]

It matters
What matters is that you quell the uncertainty and doubt that pollutes your decisions by planning ahead for all possibilities. We all need to simplify our lives, think more clearly & deeper about issues, this is not the time to use your Lizard brain, not when it comes to making a trading plan.

Write it down
It's critical, that we write down our plan, write down things that come to mind, don't worry whether they are in order, we need to remind ourselves to do nothing sometimes and just think about the now.

It's your money
Sometimes when it comes to financial matters "Good enough is not good enough". Remind yourself of this, "It's your money on the line"

Skate.