I think it is important that we all be aware of this cognitive bias both in ourselves and in others.
Dump it Here
- Thread starter Skate
- Start date
I think it is important that we all be aware of this cognitive bias both in ourselves and in others.
- Joined
- 31 March 2017
- Posts
- 261
- Reactions
- 208
XKCD understands Technical Analysis!
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
I do meditate but only to project movies on the back of my eye lids (I though everyone done it but I now know better) I don't tell people what I do as it makes me sound crazy by confirming it.
Frustration is the word I would use having an active mind, I can't understand why more people aren't like me.
Skate.
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
I'm off to mow the lawns.
I'll post my article for the day (don't forget the feedback)
Skate.
I'll post my article for the day (don't forget the feedback)
Skate.
- Joined
- 30 June 2007
- Posts
- 7,200
- Reactions
- 1,225
That sounds like day dreaming rather than meditation. What happens if you just feel the breath, in-out-in-out...?
That's interesting, I thought it might have had something to do with attention span.
greggles
I'll be back!
- Joined
- 28 July 2004
- Posts
- 4,458
- Reactions
- 4,488
Here's something I've learned about myself as I have gotten older. The greatest (and possibly only) genuine limitation on ourselves and our potential (to be distinguished from artificial limitations we sometimes place on ourselves) is our own inherited temperament and personality. Some people are just not built to be masters of the universe: high powered lawyers, CEOs or politicians etc. We don't have the temperament for it. You cannot fit a proverbial square peg into a round hole. But that doesn't mean we cannot achieve great things within the niches we carve for ourselves that suit our own temperaments and personalities. Even if that just means being a great parent or partner. Sometimes our greatest achievement (or failure) will be the lasting impact we have on those around us.
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
Skate.
AS promised @willy1111 the article is for you (I hope its not dribble)
Trading, requires planning, preparation, knowledge and experience.
Planning
The development path has to be a more realistic, helping to reduce the risk of a trader developing unrealistic expectations.
Incompetence
I’ve posted an eBook for beginners, as by the very nature of just starting out they are incompetent in trading terms, they represent a trader who wants to trade successfully, but does not have a proven trading system. People at this stage do not know the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis or intraday and position trading.
Trading software
At this stage they believe that if a trading software package contains 200 indicators it must make them at least twice as profitable as a trading software package containing only 100 indicators.
Dummies
Beginners who will not accept how little they know are a real danger to themselves because they are not capable of taking responsibility for their own actions.
Competent (& you know it clap your hands)
Trader who strictly trade according to the rules of their system, and when their success mirrors the profitability of their proven system, they are competent. Most successful traders follow mechanical systems, and are conscious of their competency.
Competent (without knowing it)
Highly trained and highly skilled traders (the AF members know who they are) trade differently to most. In trading terms they no longer need to follow, consciously, a mechanical trading system, (but some do in conjunction with) but patiently wait for a setup, and then automatically take the trade. That means “No setup, No trade”
Successful traders
Some of the most successful traders are unconscious competent. They appear to trade using their so-called 'intuition', but are in fact, applying their vast knowledge and skill to recognise low risk, high profit potential, trades.
It's a Numbers Game (pure mathematics)
Just as you a customer at Harvey Normans give 'knock backs' to pushy salespeople, by saying “no I’m just looking” the salesperson will always say “if you need any help I’ll just be over there” (Where ? it’s usually in the naughty corner whereas it should be called the STUPID corner)
Depressed and rejected
The salesperson is now feeling depressed and rejected. We all get depressed & rejected as traders as well because we tend to put together a string of losses feeling much the same way as the poor old salesman.
Knock backs
By looking at selling as well as trading you can appreciate it’s a numbers games, the good salespeople (the sales professionals) and the good traders know that a certain percentage of knock backs and losses, respectively, is just reality. They know that a key to success is not to take the knock back or loss personally, but instead to look at it as the price of doing business. Accept it, and move on to the next sale or trade.
How is it done
Professional traders (I mean the good traders) do all they can to avoid unnecessary emotional pressure.
Failure to Use a Proven System
The reasons why most traders fail to profit from their trading do so because they do not have a proven trading system or a good idea when just starting out as a beginner.
System design
System design requires specialist knowledge, and a beginner would rarely have such knowledge. Traders can never gain confidence in trading something that they do not understand.
Failure to Follow the Rules
This is the most common reason why system traders who fail, fail. Following rules seems easy, and it is indeed easy to do when one is paper trading.
Real trading
Real trading adds the ingredients of greed and fear. When you’re dealing with your own money, it gets very complicated, very quickly!
It these emotions that can over-ride a trader's determination to follow a system exactly. Most novice system traders who fail to follow their proven system have returns from their trading which are considerably worse than the system should have generated.
If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail (these saying are nauseating & I’m personally over it)
Many traders have real trouble working out the time frame in which they wish to trade. On the one hand, they want to trade the longer-term moves, yet at the same time they use very tight stops. The two are incompatible, and will leave them with small losses as they watch the big, profitable moves take off without them. It is my belief that markets, from time to time, make large moves, and that the big money is to be made trading the big moves.
Traders have a reason for trading
Every trader has a reason for trading, consider you’re trading aims, you should take into account factors such as:
1. Your age - the extent to which you can tolerate risk
2. How much money you have available for trading
3. Any income you have available from other sources
4. Your cash needs; and the taxation implications of your trading.
Investment
Traditional investment are a vehicle to generate returns (money) & at the moment the stock market & the property markets are doing okay but are both subjected to fluctuations (current sediments of the players) & what the media is spruiking bears no resemblance to normality.
Signals
The stock market at the moment are giving appropriate signals of improvement & according to my trading system, I have a strong preference to trade stocks over adding to my property investments. I understand that, as an alternative, I can place additional investment dollars with a Licenced Investment Company (LIC’s) but it’s an aim of mine to outperform these funds by a reasonable margin. I also understand that some funds fail to outperform the Australian All Ordinaries Index, so I also aim to outperform the Index. I don’t see outperform difficult to do, because I have a number of advantages over these funds:
1. My overheads are low
2. I can enter and exit the market more swiftly
3. I can spread my risk over a smaller number of stronger stocks, due to my trading capital being smaller than that of a large fund
4. I do not have to be in the market at all, when the profitmaking opportunities are not there.
Given the above reasons for trading the stock market, given my stock market trading philosophy, I look for trades that allow me to trade with a minimum of risk. I also look for trades that have the potential to generate excellent profits.
Trading Strategies
Your trading strategies are your specific rules for trading, which must flow logically from your trading philosophy and aims.
Records
Please make it a habit to maintained your records. This may seem a very mundane topic, yet good record keeping is essential!
Keep a track of how you are going
Keep current, comprehensive records of each trade you make. By keeping such records, you will then be in an excellent position to ensure that there are no errors in any paper work you receive from your broker & you have accurate information for taxation purposes but most importantly, your overall position can be monitored at any time.
Monitoring Your Profitability
I monitor my profitability every day, after all it’s a money making exercise. You may consider plotting on a simple line chart each day or weekly, monthly, depending on how frequently you trade, your trading equity (the profit/loss of your open trades, plus the money in your trading account). This will allow you to monitor your progress in a graphic manner so you can quickly isolate problem areas in your trading.
Internet
The Internet is a cheap and effective source of information, including articles on an almost infinite range of topics & your education is never ending, it’s an ongoing process so you should be serious about it as – YOUR MONEY IS ON THE LINE
Skate.
AS promised @willy1111 the article is for you (I hope its not dribble)
Trading, requires planning, preparation, knowledge and experience.
Planning
The development path has to be a more realistic, helping to reduce the risk of a trader developing unrealistic expectations.
Incompetence
I’ve posted an eBook for beginners, as by the very nature of just starting out they are incompetent in trading terms, they represent a trader who wants to trade successfully, but does not have a proven trading system. People at this stage do not know the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis or intraday and position trading.
Trading software
At this stage they believe that if a trading software package contains 200 indicators it must make them at least twice as profitable as a trading software package containing only 100 indicators.
Dummies
Beginners who will not accept how little they know are a real danger to themselves because they are not capable of taking responsibility for their own actions.
Competent (& you know it clap your hands)
Trader who strictly trade according to the rules of their system, and when their success mirrors the profitability of their proven system, they are competent. Most successful traders follow mechanical systems, and are conscious of their competency.
Competent (without knowing it)
Highly trained and highly skilled traders (the AF members know who they are) trade differently to most. In trading terms they no longer need to follow, consciously, a mechanical trading system, (but some do in conjunction with) but patiently wait for a setup, and then automatically take the trade. That means “No setup, No trade”
Successful traders
Some of the most successful traders are unconscious competent. They appear to trade using their so-called 'intuition', but are in fact, applying their vast knowledge and skill to recognise low risk, high profit potential, trades.
It's a Numbers Game (pure mathematics)
Just as you a customer at Harvey Normans give 'knock backs' to pushy salespeople, by saying “no I’m just looking” the salesperson will always say “if you need any help I’ll just be over there” (Where ? it’s usually in the naughty corner whereas it should be called the STUPID corner)
Depressed and rejected
The salesperson is now feeling depressed and rejected. We all get depressed & rejected as traders as well because we tend to put together a string of losses feeling much the same way as the poor old salesman.
Knock backs
By looking at selling as well as trading you can appreciate it’s a numbers games, the good salespeople (the sales professionals) and the good traders know that a certain percentage of knock backs and losses, respectively, is just reality. They know that a key to success is not to take the knock back or loss personally, but instead to look at it as the price of doing business. Accept it, and move on to the next sale or trade.
How is it done
Professional traders (I mean the good traders) do all they can to avoid unnecessary emotional pressure.
Failure to Use a Proven System
The reasons why most traders fail to profit from their trading do so because they do not have a proven trading system or a good idea when just starting out as a beginner.
System design
System design requires specialist knowledge, and a beginner would rarely have such knowledge. Traders can never gain confidence in trading something that they do not understand.
Failure to Follow the Rules
This is the most common reason why system traders who fail, fail. Following rules seems easy, and it is indeed easy to do when one is paper trading.
Real trading
Real trading adds the ingredients of greed and fear. When you’re dealing with your own money, it gets very complicated, very quickly!
It these emotions that can over-ride a trader's determination to follow a system exactly. Most novice system traders who fail to follow their proven system have returns from their trading which are considerably worse than the system should have generated.
If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail (these saying are nauseating & I’m personally over it)
Many traders have real trouble working out the time frame in which they wish to trade. On the one hand, they want to trade the longer-term moves, yet at the same time they use very tight stops. The two are incompatible, and will leave them with small losses as they watch the big, profitable moves take off without them. It is my belief that markets, from time to time, make large moves, and that the big money is to be made trading the big moves.
Traders have a reason for trading
Every trader has a reason for trading, consider you’re trading aims, you should take into account factors such as:
1. Your age - the extent to which you can tolerate risk
2. How much money you have available for trading
3. Any income you have available from other sources
4. Your cash needs; and the taxation implications of your trading.
Investment
Traditional investment are a vehicle to generate returns (money) & at the moment the stock market & the property markets are doing okay but are both subjected to fluctuations (current sediments of the players) & what the media is spruiking bears no resemblance to normality.
Signals
The stock market at the moment are giving appropriate signals of improvement & according to my trading system, I have a strong preference to trade stocks over adding to my property investments. I understand that, as an alternative, I can place additional investment dollars with a Licenced Investment Company (LIC’s) but it’s an aim of mine to outperform these funds by a reasonable margin. I also understand that some funds fail to outperform the Australian All Ordinaries Index, so I also aim to outperform the Index. I don’t see outperform difficult to do, because I have a number of advantages over these funds:
1. My overheads are low
2. I can enter and exit the market more swiftly
3. I can spread my risk over a smaller number of stronger stocks, due to my trading capital being smaller than that of a large fund
4. I do not have to be in the market at all, when the profitmaking opportunities are not there.
Given the above reasons for trading the stock market, given my stock market trading philosophy, I look for trades that allow me to trade with a minimum of risk. I also look for trades that have the potential to generate excellent profits.
Trading Strategies
Your trading strategies are your specific rules for trading, which must flow logically from your trading philosophy and aims.
Records
Please make it a habit to maintained your records. This may seem a very mundane topic, yet good record keeping is essential!
Keep a track of how you are going
Keep current, comprehensive records of each trade you make. By keeping such records, you will then be in an excellent position to ensure that there are no errors in any paper work you receive from your broker & you have accurate information for taxation purposes but most importantly, your overall position can be monitored at any time.
Monitoring Your Profitability
I monitor my profitability every day, after all it’s a money making exercise. You may consider plotting on a simple line chart each day or weekly, monthly, depending on how frequently you trade, your trading equity (the profit/loss of your open trades, plus the money in your trading account). This will allow you to monitor your progress in a graphic manner so you can quickly isolate problem areas in your trading.
Internet
The Internet is a cheap and effective source of information, including articles on an almost infinite range of topics & your education is never ending, it’s an ongoing process so you should be serious about it as – YOUR MONEY IS ON THE LINE
Skate.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
XKCD understands Technical Analysis!
I don't understand this either.
But it has an important use for someone.
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
Interesting interpretation, an alternative interpretation that what seems like a big almost unfathomable goal can appear much more achievable if broken down into simpler smaller processes. A bit like the way you post
A 1000 mile walk is a long long walk that could take a very very long time, but if one was to think all I need to do is take one step, I can do that, and just take another step, I can do that, and keep going until you reach 1000 miles.
To me it is acknowledging that the little things, the 1 percenters, that when put together can achieve something very big and worthwhile.
It is a bit like saying, How do you eat an elephant? - one bite at a time.
A waterfall can start with one drop of water, look what that can turn into.
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
Interesting interpretation, an alternative interpretation that what seems like a big almost unfathomable goal can appear much more achievable if broken down into simpler smaller processes. A bit like the way you post
A 1000 mile walk is a long long walk that could take a very very long time, but if one was to think all I need to do is take one step, I can do that, and just take another step, I can do that, and keep going until you reach 1000 miles.
To me it is acknowledging that the little things, the 1 percenters, that when put together can achieve something very big and worthwhile.
It is a bit like saying, How do you eat an elephant? - one bite at a time.
A waterfall can start with one drop of water, look what that can turn into.
willy1111, when I was a trainer one of the programs was all about "holes in a bucket" goes for 4 hours. (people don't understand until you relate it to simplicity)
Also "Silver Shoes" is a real tear jerker it moistens everyone's eyes. (5hrs course & they hang on every word)
Skate.
Mans search for meaning - Viktor Fankl.
Things only mean as much as the meaning we choose to attach to them. We all have this power, it may be liberating when one realises such.
My feedback, preference would be to break up into multiple posts as you previously have been doing
I trade a mechanical trading strategy as I can analyse back test results back to 1992 with Amibroker and see how the strategy would have performed at any point in time, over any period within that data set.
I can compare those results and time and effort involved to run the strategy to other investment alternatives like leveraged and unleveraged residential real estate, LIC's, Index Funds, Listed and Unlisted Property Trusts, Commercial property, day trading, forex trading, investing with other managers, etc. I can compare the advantages/disadvantages as I perceive them.
Knowing what I know now, I would be very very very happy if 27 years ago I put 100% of my money into my trading strategy adding all surplus income over the years. However, I am acutely aware that past performance does not guarantee future results - nobody knows what the future holds - the next 27 years could look entirely different. As such 100% of my money is not in my trading strategy, I have other investments and other income streams.
My suggestion for newbies would be to think about how you would like your trading life to look.
Do you want to sit in front of a screen:
- 8 hrs a day
- 1 hr a day
- 10 minutes a day
- 10 minutes a week
- 10 minutes a month
- 10 minutes a quarter
or some other time frame
Start with that and try to design a system around it.
Is one trading because they like the process or is it simply a means to generate money so you can do whatever it is you want to do.
- Joined
- 6 January 2016
- Posts
- 254
- Reactions
- 187
In contrast I have put my entire net worth (Super + All Savings | I own no other assets) into my trend following system and have traded it religiously (no tinkering) for 5.5 years. Consequently, this has resulted in a doubling of my entire net worth and has pushed my retirement age down to 40 (FIRE).
It is mind boggling how much money you can extract from the market as a retail trader, with the right amount of discipline, fortitude and conviction.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Trend
How old are you now?
How long do you think you may live?
How much do you think you will need?
Will you stop trading?
Why are you still trading?
How old are you now?
How long do you think you may live?
How much do you think you will need?
Will you stop trading?
Why are you still trading?
- Joined
- 28 December 2013
- Posts
- 6,350
- Reactions
- 24,219
Finished doing the lawns & surprise 11 messages.
Before I read any of them I'll have a shower & lunch.
Whilst I was doing lawn care (mowing, edging that sort of stuff) I was musing how nice it was to have good tools to do a job giving with excellent results & how could I tie it into trading.
I'm going to post some pictures of my tools & the end result of the mow (I have taken a picture of the clock in the garage so you know the group of pictures are from today)
The Takeaway
You need the right tools whether you are doing the yards or Trading.
Skate.
Before I read any of them I'll have a shower & lunch.
Whilst I was doing lawn care (mowing, edging that sort of stuff) I was musing how nice it was to have good tools to do a job giving with excellent results & how could I tie it into trading.
I'm going to post some pictures of my tools & the end result of the mow (I have taken a picture of the clock in the garage so you know the group of pictures are from today)
The Takeaway
You need the right tools whether you are doing the yards or Trading.
Skate.
Similar threads
- Poll
