Dump it Here

[Skate]

Good afternoon Skate,

Hoping find you well. Been meaning to touch base much sooner regarding your posts re: Volume-Weighted Moving Average' (VWMA) and other matters. Also, had a chance to go through this thread, nearly 4 years of posts, some marvelous stuff documented, a credit to yourself and those that have contributed along the way. Awfully difficult to keep people happy all the time, as everybody has an opinion on things. It is the nature of our business. Yes, and a good thing too.

The concept of VWMA has been adopted as a trading benchmark embraced by rcw1 for many years. rcw1 applies this concept too swing and day trading methodologies, arduous, but yet rewarding in so many ways. rcw1, for mine, is a swing trader that likes to fast trade, daily and does not use any software other than charting and trading platform. 3 screens and a computer, for old times sake... Have built highways and over passes around /through VWMA so that it is more efficiently executed within scope of personal methodologies. rcw1 broadly defines this process/system as, 'numbers'. It goes well beyond the formula of VWMA. It's all about what is happening real time with depth of the stock and its volume at any point in time. Knowing the why's !! ... Demand v Supply, essentially. Contemporary times of 'computer invasion' of stocks, large shorting issues and super funds grabbing sh-t loads of shares, let alone the world economies and the Dow, makes things most interesting indeed, for the trader, the 'mosquitos' of the market. rcw1 will only target a handful of stocks at any one time so that maximum attention can be drawn in real time as to what they are doing... and trade accordingly.

When the price is above an open, it is up, conversely, when the price is below an open, it is down. No hidden agendas or rocket science here. But these are the start points. This is when the game starts and ends each day. Traders, mostly, look for reversals but can be impatient and 'trigger happy' thus buying when they shouldn't and holding / selling ultimately for a loss. Traders must limit this risk; it is a given. Again, no rocket science here. Traders also need to drink plenty of concrete to toughen up, to do battle again, after a few rounds in the 'trading ring'

Charts obviously play a major role, there are many available, an incredibly valuable resource/tool given the right circumstances. Charts are an excellent indicator, nothing more or for that matter nothing less. A chart cannot guarantee to the trader the stock will go up or go down, it simply provides data in a format for the eyes to easily read and interpret by the brain. Patterns and behaviours present, past and future ... perhaps. All traders will watch carefully for telltale triggers/signals, a mere slight trace of reversal could be enough.

Interestingly, may well pick up perceived different signals watching conjointly a one-minute chart and a 5-minute chart of the same stock movement. ha ha ha ha does one's head in... Also perceived different signals watching the live feed of sales of any particular stock as opposed to chart interpretation. There could well be a block of traders jump in at once, or out ... Who knows unless your on line watching. Then the questions are why?? What for?

rcw1 primary chart is the one-minute chart.
Other evidence-based concepts include, ADR equivalent analysis, TA, research of publications which may reveal valuable information to help make / forecast trading decisions and comments made within chat / community forums.

rcw1 at times performs his own 'numbers' calculations manually, particularly with the first 3 minutes of the trading day (happy to explain this better another time) and maintain 'numbers' records, on a case-by-case basis. As data comes in, it gets added and divided by total volume to that specific point in time in line with the 'numbers' formula. Benchmarking, but not always, time may well not allow to jump in or out, but aligned towards two trades a day, per stock, one off the low of the day and one off the high of the day. What will be the low and what will be the high??? Whatever the trader wants it to be, but it must support and be directly aimed at an earn transaction, profit. Trade what is before you, off the pitch. Could be any number of trades for any one stock, could be none too. Depends.

This is nothing new or for that matter original.

Traders often fail not knowing for sure where price is going; enter when it's not valid for fear of missing out (herd / sheep mentality); over size for the size of the a/c; get greedy and try for more profit outside trading scope. A profit is a profit. rcw1 considers only an accumulative effect of earn both with the sell transaction and then the earn compounded with other trades by the leap frogging immediately into other trading stocks with profit and capital, round and round and round we go.

rcw1 does not abide by rigid rules, as for mine, it can restrict one's own natural ability, however, want to be clear, that rules are in place to mitigate against risk. Rules are good. On the balance rcw1 is a big supporter an advocate of one's own natural ability and being able to work unimpeded or without undue restriction of trading process. Somewhat contradictory I know. The use of your own cultural traits, emotion and application of life's learnings, 'tricks of the trade' are for mine most important. They cannot be taught; they are acquired whilst 'on the tools' where loss and sorrow and 'bloodshed' have been experienced. Experiences, occurrences which all 'value add' towards decision making considerations of when to move on a stock or not!!

During the passage of time rcw1 has become more flexible in the methodologies applied, with emphasis on 'gut feeling' ; déjà vu; making some plays with the numbers presented. Sometimes there is a fine line between utter stupidity and a balanced patient approach to earn. Difficult to define, provide an evidence base for, but nevertheless, rcw1 will rely upon past experiences to trade.
For mine it takes decades to make for a complete trader and even still, there are gaps.

When things don't go well, rcw1 will change trading account, over to a separate and completely different account. 95% of the time is it borrowed cash (Trading Loan) which is used but when trades are not going well, will change over to savings account. Found that this quietened the enthusiasm... a new lease of life so to speak, like a 'smoko break', stemmies the tide... Marvelous how a simple thing like changing an account, steady's the ship.

Perfection is not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away - Antoine De Saint Exupery.

Perfection requires 'absolute resolve and discipline' in real time. For mine, simplicity in a practical sense helps generate perfection. Perfection cannot be judged over a snapshot of time, it is infinite, it is required to be ongoing, open ended, as applied to the task at hand, in this case, trading. Perfection is a 'state of mind' what rcw1 strives to achieve and remain in 'that zone', when trading. To be perfect. Laugh you may, but that is rcw1 objective every single day that a trade takes place. Once gaining the requisite level of perfection, standard, confidence builds, it snowballs, the mind becomes overwhelmingly full of positive thoughts, clearer mind, clearer picture an enhancement of judgement duly follows.

Setbacks come and go all the time. Landslide setbacks, but traders need to pick oneself off the floor dust oneself off and get back onto the saddle, smarter and wiser, building on the other remarkable traders' trait, that of resilience. True traders run the market over decades. To survive, is a privilege.

rcw1 opinions. There is no script.

Be perfect and trade whatever system the trader is comfortable with. Together in the sandpit to earn, there can be no other motivation.

Have a very nice day, today.
edit: change to read good afternoon

Kind regards
rcw1

@rcw1 your post is pure gold.

Been meaning to touch base much sooner regarding your posts re: Volume-Weighted Moving Average' (VWMA) and other matters.

The open challenge @Captain_Chaza put out was intended to see if you can profit from the markets using just technicals rather than the fundamentals of a company. @Gringotts Bank explained it perfectly when it was insinuated that it's "herd trading" which is 100% correct. System trading is not for everyone but it has been very profitable for me over the years. From my point of view, I've tried to explain how I trade, a trading system that is repeatable.

The concept of VWMA has been adopted as a trading benchmark embraced by rcw1 for many years. rcw1 applies this concept too swing and day trading methodologies, arduous, but yet rewarding in so many ways.

Reporting on the "VWMA Strategy"
When challenged to trade live with all signals in advance I used the "HighRoller Strategy" as it was the first in the charts. I won't be displaying signals for the other two strategies (1) "The Pirate Strategy" & (2) "The VWMA Strategy" but I will include those ongoing results as part of the Equity Curve for the "HighRoller Strategy" being on the same chart. Leaving the two strategies as part of the "Equity Curve" might encourage others to look for information that we already know.

Possibly there is a fundamental misunderstanding with regard to Mr Skate's trading style.

Mr Skate is a 'Swing Trader', which is 1 step up from a 'day trader'.

Entries are CRITICALLY important as evidenced from the highlighted text. The exits are CRITICAL, which are simply the loss of the entry conditions. The bit in the middle is the expansion of volatility. When volatility expands, things move.

Well who knows
I'm not going to argue with the Duc's assessment of my trading style as I'm smarter than that. I regard myself as a "Mechanical Weekly Trend Trader" who concentrates on getting into confirmed trend & flee like a wimp at the first sign things are not panning out as expected.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I have had my say on A.I. Trading

rcw1 does not abide by rigid rules, as for mine, it can restrict one's own natural ability

There are so many ways & styles to trade
I'm made remarks before that they are some members who are just great at what they do. They have skills that we mere mortals can only dream about. When you read back a few pages you find those posts by members who are simply brilliant at what they do. These members are "unconsciously competent".

Now I'm thinking about being competent
There are some highly skilled traders on this forum who trade differently from most. In trading terms, they no longer need to follow a set trading system but patiently wait for a setup, & then take the trade as @peter2 does. These traders are "unconsciously competent". They appear to trade using their so-called 'intuition', but are in fact, applying their vast knowledge & skill to recognise low-risk, high-profit potential, trades.

I'll leave the last word to @rcw1
As it pretty well sums it up.

Be perfect and trade whatever system the trader is comfortable with. Together in the sandpit to earn, there can be no other motivation.

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

Good afternoon Skate,

Hoping find you well. Been meaning to touch base much sooner regarding your posts re: Volume-Weighted Moving Average' (VWMA) and other matters. Also, had a chance to go through this thread, nearly 4 years of posts, some marvelous stuff documented, a credit to yourself and those that have contributed along the way. Awfully difficult to keep people happy all the time, as everybody has an opinion on things. It is the nature of our business. Yes, and a good thing too.

The concept of VWMA has been adopted as a trading benchmark embraced by rcw1 for many years. rcw1 applies this concept too swing and day trading methodologies, arduous, but yet rewarding in so many ways. rcw1, for mine, is a swing trader that likes to fast trade, daily and does not use any software other than charting and trading platform. 3 screens and a computer, for old times sake... Have built highways and over passes around /through VWMA so that it is more efficiently executed within scope of personal methodologies. rcw1 broadly defines this process/system as, 'numbers'. It goes well beyond the formula of VWMA. It's all about what is happening real time with depth of the stock and its volume at any point in time. Knowing the why's !! ... Demand v Supply, essentially. Contemporary times of 'computer invasion' of stocks, large shorting issues and super funds grabbing sh-t loads of shares, let alone the world economies and the Dow, makes things most interesting indeed, for the trader, the 'mosquitos' of the market. rcw1 will only target a handful of stocks at any one time so that maximum attention can be drawn in real time as to what they are doing... and trade accordingly.

When the price is above an open, it is up, conversely, when the price is below an open, it is down. No hidden agendas or rocket science here. But these are the start points. This is when the game starts and ends each day. Traders, mostly, look for reversals but can be impatient and 'trigger happy' thus buying when they shouldn't and holding / selling ultimately for a loss. Traders must limit this risk; it is a given. Again, no rocket science here. Traders also need to drink plenty of concrete to toughen up, to do battle again, after a few rounds in the 'trading ring'

Charts obviously play a major role, there are many available, an incredibly valuable resource/tool given the right circumstances. Charts are an excellent indicator, nothing more or for that matter nothing less. A chart cannot guarantee to the trader the stock will go up or go down, it simply provides data in a format for the eyes to easily read and interpret by the brain. Patterns and behaviours present, past and future ... perhaps. All traders will watch carefully for telltale triggers/signals, a mere slight trace of reversal could be enough.

Interestingly, may well pick up perceived different signals watching conjointly a one-minute chart and a 5-minute chart of the same stock movement. ha ha ha ha does one's head in... Also perceived different signals watching the live feed of sales of any particular stock as opposed to chart interpretation. There could well be a block of traders jump in at once, or out ... Who knows unless your on line watching. Then the questions are why?? What for?

rcw1 primary chart is the one-minute chart.
Other evidence-based concepts include, ADR equivalent analysis, TA, research of publications which may reveal valuable information to help make / forecast trading decisions and comments made within chat / community forums.

rcw1 at times performs his own 'numbers' calculations manually, particularly with the first 3 minutes of the trading day (happy to explain this better another time) and maintain 'numbers' records, on a case-by-case basis. As data comes in, it gets added and divided by total volume to that specific point in time in line with the 'numbers' formula. Benchmarking, but not always, time may well not allow to jump in or out, but aligned towards two trades a day, per stock, one off the low of the day and one off the high of the day. What will be the low and what will be the high??? Whatever the trader wants it to be, but it must support and be directly aimed at an earn transaction, profit. Trade what is before you, off the pitch. Could be any number of trades for any one stock, could be none too. Depends.

This is nothing new or for that matter original.

Traders often fail not knowing for sure where price is going; enter when it's not valid for fear of missing out (herd / sheep mentality); over size for the size of the a/c; get greedy and try for more profit outside trading scope. A profit is a profit. rcw1 considers only an accumulative effect of earn both with the sell transaction and then the earn compounded with other trades by the leap frogging immediately into other trading stocks with profit and capital, round and round and round we go.

rcw1 does not abide by rigid rules, as for mine, it can restrict one's own natural ability, however, want to be clear, that rules are in place to mitigate against risk. Rules are good. On the balance rcw1 is a big supporter an advocate of one's own natural ability and being able to work unimpeded or without undue restriction of trading process. Somewhat contradictory I know. The use of your own cultural traits, emotion and application of life's learnings, 'tricks of the trade' are for mine most important. They cannot be taught; they are acquired whilst 'on the tools' where loss and sorrow and 'bloodshed' have been experienced. Experiences, occurrences which all 'value add' towards decision making considerations of when to move on a stock or not!!

During the passage of time rcw1 has become more flexible in the methodologies applied, with emphasis on 'gut feeling' ; déjà vu; making some plays with the numbers presented. Sometimes there is a fine line between utter stupidity and a balanced patient approach to earn. Difficult to define, provide an evidence base for, but nevertheless, rcw1 will rely upon past experiences to trade.
For mine it takes decades to make for a complete trader and even still, there are gaps.

When things don't go well, rcw1 will change trading account, over to a separate and completely different account. 95% of the time is it borrowed cash (Trading Loan) which is used but when trades are not going well, will change over to savings account. Found that this quietened the enthusiasm... a new lease of life so to speak, like a 'smoko break', stemmies the tide... Marvelous how a simple thing like changing an account, steady's the ship.

Perfection is not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away - Antoine De Saint Exupery.

Perfection requires 'absolute resolve and discipline' in real time. For mine, simplicity in a practical sense helps generate perfection. Perfection cannot be judged over a snapshot of time, it is infinite, it is required to be ongoing, open ended, as applied to the task at hand, in this case, trading. Perfection is a 'state of mind' what rcw1 strives to achieve and remain in 'that zone', when trading. To be perfect. Laugh you may, but that is rcw1 objective every single day that a trade takes place. Once gaining the requisite level of perfection, standard, confidence builds, it snowballs, the mind becomes overwhelmingly full of positive thoughts, clearer mind, clearer picture an enhancement of judgement duly follows.

Setbacks come and go all the time. Landslide setbacks, but traders need to pick oneself off the floor dust oneself off and get back onto the saddle, smarter and wiser, building on the other remarkable traders' trait, that of resilience. True traders run the market over decades. To survive, is a privilege.

rcw1 opinions. There is no script.

Be perfect and trade whatever system the trader is comfortable with. Together in the sandpit to earn, there can be no other motivation.

Have a very nice day, today.
edit: change to read good afternoon

Kind regards
rcw1

@rcw1 I love the way that you express yourself, you sound like a hybrid between a philosopher and a poet. I'm a technical analytical type of person but I also love philosophy. I think that you wound be great company to have a drink with. Your doing it your way and your going deep with your thought processes, and I respect that. All the best mate.

 

[qldfrog]

@rcw1 I love the way that you express yourself, you sound like a hybrid between a philosopher and a poet. I'm a technical analytical type of person but I also love philosophy. I think that you wound be great company to have a drink with. Your doing it your way and your going deep with your thought processes, and I respect that. All the best mate.

+1 DT,
Not as well how @rcw1 always applies a coat of feel good basic psychology to his entries.
It would be very hard to disagree nastily with any of his posts

 

[ducati916]

Changing tack ever so slightly:




jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Speculative Momentum Portfolio (SMP):
The edge in this system is buying what others are buying regardless of the company outlook and selling after the first signs of sellers (supply) appear.

New projects
@peter2 new project should make interesting reading as his method when entering & exiting the market is different from my way of trading. Peter's posting style is refreshing as he explains his thoughts & methodology as his trading progresses, just not his results. Without new ideas, thinking is not stimulated.

The big difference is that I don't use Amibroker and my trade selections and exits will be discretionary, not system generated.

Trading Skills
I would place Peter in the "unconsciously competent" type of trader as he uses his knowledge & experience when entering & exiting a trade.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I feel like a fake
Last Christmas a department store Santa approached me & said "I feel like a fake, looking at your beard". Buying & selling generated signals without knowing what a company does makes me "feel like the fake". Don't get me wrong, I may not know what a company does but I certainly know a lot about human nature, something my coding aims to capture.

Research & system testing is all-consuming
That's where all my efforts lay. Trading takes up only minutes per week as I rely on the work I've already done. I must admit I don't feel as though "I'm a real trader" but nevertheless it's rewarding making a few dollars trading the way I do.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Our Community
Without something new to learn we tend to use this forum as a place to hang out, which is okay. The forum over the last few years had a surge of new members eager to learn more about trading. A portion of those has left disillusioned because of the recent treacherous trading conditions.

At the same time
We have been fortunate enough to pick up the best & brightest from the closure of the CommSec forum. New members bring a new perspective when it comes to all things trading, something I appreciate.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Information Overload
The experiment @Captain_Chaza has requested involves trading a strategy for 3 months to establish if a Mechanical Trading System has any merit. I've displayed information previously about how I trade & before reporting tomorrow I wanted to explain three important chart features. I've just run an Exploration Analysis & have a group of raw signals. Of those signals, only the positions currently in the portfolio need to be actioned. The other signals are redundant but good for this explanation.

These are all today's raw signals for the "HighRoller Strategy"
At the end of the close today, there are 8 sell signals. (ASX:GOR) is not in the portfolio but as it's the first position in the list I'll chart it up. In doing so I'll make three comments that are important to understand how the strategy operates.



The marking on the chart
(a) The "Take Profit Stop" the "Stalke Exit" & the "Trailing Stop" are all noted that should be self-explanatory.

(b) What I want to highlight is two ribbons at the bottom of the chart. Unless both ribbons are green, the strategy won't generate buy signals. But it can generate sell signals.

(C) Next below the chart is a "Percentage Up Indicator". For a buy signal to be generated the "Percentage Up Indicator" needs to be 50% or above. Below the 50% level, only sell signals will be generated. If the "Percentage Up Indicator" falls to 25% or below it's an immediate exit.





Skate.

 

[Skate]

"The HighRoller Strategy" Trading Results
Uploading screen captures should supply enough information to follow along each Friday. All the information other than the expanded Equity Chart pertains to the "HighRoller Strategy" only.




The Equity Curve of all three strategies
Each strategy name & equity line is colour coded. The "HighRoller Strategy" is RED, the "Pirate Strategy" is BLUE & The VWMA Strategy is ORANGE.

All three strategies have had a win this week
This exercise is all about the trading results of "The HighRoller Strategy". The Equity Curve below displays the ongoing trading results of the other two strategies the "Pirate" & the "VWMA" strategies.

I made a series of posts about the "VWMA Strategy"
As there was interest shown in the "VWMA Strategy", it's included for others who want to follow its weekly progress at the same time.




The "HighRoller Strategy" current open positions
There are two sells (IPD) & (QPM) that will need to be placed in the pre-auction over the weekend.




Amibroker Exploration Analysis
The Exploration Analysis displays all the raw signals (even those not in the portfolio). There are two positions that need action over the weekend. (IPD) & (QPM). Both positions went stale early. Selling is where the money is made. (IMHO)





Skate.

 

[Skate]

We have to be patient while waiting for better conditions

VWMA as inspired by Mr Skate posts started..but is not engaged yet

Boxing analogy when it comes to trading
It's all about knowing when to throw a punch.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Boxing analogy when it comes to trading
It's all about knowing when to throw a punch.

We all fall into the trap of overtrading
When trading, timing is everything. I don't care how good you think a company is, but if you buy it at the wrong time, you're in for a world of pain & misery.

We have all seen the Superannuation commercials (compare the pair)
Well, that's what I've done to display why the timing of buying a position is so important. If you get this one feature wrong your "Hero strategy" can go to a "Zero Strategy"

Compare the pair
This backtest displays the difference a timing filter can make to your trading performance. Both strategies are exactly the same strategy, with the same parameters. The only difference is the "buy filter" has been removed from the strategy on the right-hand side.

The "VWMA Strategy" Backtest results
Backtest period is from the 1st of January 2022 to the 25th of November 2022.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I've asked Nick if he would update his WTT backtest for this calendar year.

The staff member responsible for updating that data has been extremely busy on other projects. He'll update at month end.

Not long now
The end of November is quickly approaching so the results should be updated shortly thereafter.

Skate.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Still Too Much information for me

All I just like to know is your Opening Buying Limit each Monday on each stock
and then ?
If any of them Buying or Selling orders got CONFIRMED in real time

This is all I would like to Check on your tables!
This should not have to be "Rocket Science"

Otherwise
"It's All Smoke and Mirrors"

Love your work and many thanks
You may have something and maybe you have not?

Salute and Gods' Speed

 

[Skate]

Still Too Much information for me

Okay @Captain_Chaza, I hear you loud & clear.

I'll cease the exercise.



Skate.

 

[peter2]

I was thinking about the profit take exit for my spec momentum portfolio. At the moment it's discretionary, based on my opinion if price has gone up too fast and is now overbought and likely to drop with significant profit selling. The concern with all profit taking (scaling out) methods is the cost of lost profits. However the speculative sector has many instances of pump & dumps due to pure speculation.

I was wondering about the average trade wins and losses posted in the many back tests in this thread. Compiling a table as I scanned through this thread I noticed that the average trade win during 2022 (19%) is much lower than previous years 2018 - 2021 (32%). We can agree that 2022 has been a risk off year and we can see confirmation in this stat.

If the ave trade win varies so much and it's impossible to predict what it'll be in the future. How do we estimate what the profit take target should be? Past results are little guide to future results.

If we use market filters to govern the market exposure then perhaps a market filter (or market internal) may help to estimate a profit take value that's suited to the current market conditions. We understand that in bullish markets we shouldn't scale out, but when conditions are not so bullish taking partial profits can prevent losing too much of the open profit.

It may be as simple as monitoring the XSO index to guide our scaling out (profit taking) in the spec sector.

 

[Skate]

I was thinking about the profit take exit for my spec momentum portfolio. At the moment it's discretionary, based on my opinion if price has gone up too fast and is now overbought and likely to drop with significant profit selling.

@peter2, a profit stop can be coded precisely, getting this parameter right allows you to lock in profits before a retracement.

I'll stay with the "VWMA Strategy" for the example
The charts below are from the backtest this calendar year. If you look at the 4 charts below you will see that after a "Take Profit Stop" is taken out (the aqua dash line) the price soon retraces.

The "Take Profit Stop"
The chart displays that the "Take Profit Stop" (the aqua dash line) is precisely coded with no discretionary input required. Coding the "Take profit Stop" correctly as part of an exit strategy adds value to your portfolio. Exits, make the money, IMHO.

Backtest metrics are important
These 4 "Take Profit Stops" are from the "VWMA Strategy" that was reported a few posts back. The "Take Profit Stop" is the first line of the extended metrics. Two of the 4 charts below have been expanded for a better view.

After the "Take Profit Stop" (Green down arrow)
You will notice the price retraces after a "Take Profit Stop" is hit. It should be noted that the "Take Profit Stop" locks in profits.













Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

I was wondering about the average trade wins and losses posted in the many back tests in this thread. Compiling a table as I scanned through this thread I noticed that the average trade win during 2022 (19%) is much lower than previous years 2018 - 2021 (32%). We can agree that 2022 has been a risk off year and we can see confirmation in this stat.

Thanks for sharing this stat. I appreciate that it probably took a while to compile. ?
It matches my move to accept smaller margins from earlier this year. (I love bias confirmation..?)
Slim pickings and leaner times for sure.

 

[farmerge]

Good afternoon Skate,

Hoping find you well. Been meaning to touch base much sooner regarding your posts re: Volume-Weighted Moving Average' (VWMA) and other matters. Also, had a chance to go through this thread, nearly 4 years of posts, some marvelous stuff documented, a credit to yourself and those that have contributed along the way. Awfully difficult to keep people happy all the time, as everybody has an opinion on things. It is the nature of our business. Yes, and a good thing too.

The concept of VWMA has been adopted as a trading benchmark embraced by rcw1 for many years. rcw1 applies this concept too swing and day trading methodologies, arduous, but yet rewarding in so many ways. rcw1, for mine, is a swing trader that likes to fast trade, daily and does not use any software other than charting and trading platform. 3 screens and a computer, for old times sake... Have built highways and over passes around /through VWMA so that it is more efficiently executed within scope of personal methodologies. rcw1 broadly defines this process/system as, 'numbers'. It goes well beyond the formula of VWMA. It's all about what is happening real time with depth of the stock and its volume at any point in time. Knowing the why's !! ... Demand v Supply, essentially. Contemporary times of 'computer invasion' of stocks, large shorting issues and super funds grabbing sh-t loads of shares, let alone the world economies and the Dow, makes things most interesting indeed, for the trader, the 'mosquitos' of the market. rcw1 will only target a handful of stocks at any one time so that maximum attention can be drawn in real time as to what they are doing... and trade accordingly.

When the price is above an open, it is up, conversely, when the price is below an open, it is down. No hidden agendas or rocket science here. But these are the start points. This is when the game starts and ends each day. Traders, mostly, look for reversals but can be impatient and 'trigger happy' thus buying when they shouldn't and holding / selling ultimately for a loss. Traders must limit this risk; it is a given. Again, no rocket science here. Traders also need to drink plenty of concrete to toughen up, to do battle again, after a few rounds in the 'trading ring'

Charts obviously play a major role, there are many available, an incredibly valuable resource/tool given the right circumstances. Charts are an excellent indicator, nothing more or for that matter nothing less. A chart cannot guarantee to the trader the stock will go up or go down, it simply provides data in a format for the eyes to easily read and interpret by the brain. Patterns and behaviours present, past and future ... perhaps. All traders will watch carefully for telltale triggers/signals, a mere slight trace of reversal could be enough.

Interestingly, may well pick up perceived different signals watching conjointly a one-minute chart and a 5-minute chart of the same stock movement. ha ha ha ha does one's head in... Also perceived different signals watching the live feed of sales of any particular stock as opposed to chart interpretation. There could well be a block of traders jump in at once, or out ... Who knows unless your on line watching. Then the questions are why?? What for?

rcw1 primary chart is the one-minute chart.
Other evidence-based concepts include, ADR equivalent analysis, TA, research of publications which may reveal valuable information to help make / forecast trading decisions and comments made within chat / community forums.

rcw1 at times performs his own 'numbers' calculations manually, particularly with the first 3 minutes of the trading day (happy to explain this better another time) and maintain 'numbers' records, on a case-by-case basis. As data comes in, it gets added and divided by total volume to that specific point in time in line with the 'numbers' formula. Benchmarking, but not always, time may well not allow to jump in or out, but aligned towards two trades a day, per stock, one off the low of the day and one off the high of the day. What will be the low and what will be the high??? Whatever the trader wants it to be, but it must support and be directly aimed at an earn transaction, profit. Trade what is before you, off the pitch. Could be any number of trades for any one stock, could be none too. Depends.

This is nothing new or for that matter original.

Traders often fail not knowing for sure where price is going; enter when it's not valid for fear of missing out (herd / sheep mentality); over size for the size of the a/c; get greedy and try for more profit outside trading scope. A profit is a profit. rcw1 considers only an accumulative effect of earn both with the sell transaction and then the earn compounded with other trades by the leap frogging immediately into other trading stocks with profit and capital, round and round and round we go.

rcw1 does not abide by rigid rules, as for mine, it can restrict one's own natural ability, however, want to be clear, that rules are in place to mitigate against risk. Rules are good. On the balance rcw1 is a big supporter an advocate of one's own natural ability and being able to work unimpeded or without undue restriction of trading process. Somewhat contradictory I know. The use of your own cultural traits, emotion and application of life's learnings, 'tricks of the trade' are for mine most important. They cannot be taught; they are acquired whilst 'on the tools' where loss and sorrow and 'bloodshed' have been experienced. Experiences, occurrences which all 'value add' towards decision making considerations of when to move on a stock or not!!

During the passage of time rcw1 has become more flexible in the methodologies applied, with emphasis on 'gut feeling' ; déjà vu; making some plays with the numbers presented. Sometimes there is a fine line between utter stupidity and a balanced patient approach to earn. Difficult to define, provide an evidence base for, but nevertheless, rcw1 will rely upon past experiences to trade.
For mine it takes decades to make for a complete trader and even still, there are gaps.

When things don't go well, rcw1 will change trading account, over to a separate and completely different account. 95% of the time is it borrowed cash (Trading Loan) which is used but when trades are not going well, will change over to savings account. Found that this quietened the enthusiasm... a new lease of life so to speak, like a 'smoko break', stemmies the tide... Marvelous how a simple thing like changing an account, steady's the ship.

Perfection is not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away - Antoine De Saint Exupery.

Perfection requires 'absolute resolve and discipline' in real time. For mine, simplicity in a practical sense helps generate perfection. Perfection cannot be judged over a snapshot of time, it is infinite, it is required to be ongoing, open ended, as applied to the task at hand, in this case, trading. Perfection is a 'state of mind' what rcw1 strives to achieve and remain in 'that zone', when trading. To be perfect. Laugh you may, but that is rcw1 objective every single day that a trade takes place. Once gaining the requisite level of perfection, standard, confidence builds, it snowballs, the mind becomes overwhelmingly full of positive thoughts, clearer mind, clearer picture an enhancement of judgement duly follows.

Setbacks come and go all the time. Landslide setbacks, but traders need to pick oneself off the floor dust oneself off and get back onto the saddle, smarter and wiser, building on the other remarkable traders' trait, that of resilience. True traders run the market over decades. To survive, is a privilege.

rcw1 opinions. There is no script.

Be perfect and trade whatever system the trader is comfortable with. Together in the sandpit to earn, there can be no other motivation.

Have a very nice day, today.
edit: change to read good afternoon

Kind regards
rcw1

Morning to you rcw1 just finished reading your thoughts and processes on how you decide to trade. Very informative acticale. My trading is a bit less than yours but we both espouse to the same theory and end result.....A wallet filler if possible with each and evey sell

 

[Skate]

We all fall into the trap of overtrading
When trading, timing is everything. I don't care how good you think a company is, but if you buy it at the wrong time, you're in for a world of pain & misery.

In this game, it's critical that traders don't overtrade
When profit targets are hit, close the trade & enjoy the gains. When in a losing trade follow the sell signals, don't try to outsmart your strategy. Just learn to be the best loser you can possibly be.

When you have one job to do
Don't "fuck_it_up".



Skate.