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Plan how to get into & out of the market
Being smart is not enough. Striving for excellence, not perfection is your primary focus. My focus has always been on market timing & risk management having a solid plan on how to get in & out of positions.

As a trader, you have "one job"
That one job is to survive to be around for the long term.

How?
By understanding how "you" will react under a variety of trading conditions & how your trading strategy will perform when the market is trending, choppy, erratic, or volatile. Knowing this increases your chances of survival.

Why mention this?
So you understand the importance of developing a strategy that will meet your expectations.

As humans
If you want to know why we are unhappy at times, it's because of one reason - "Our expectations haven't been met"

My definition of happiness
"Desiring what you have" not “appreciating what you have” - there is a major difference.

Skate.
 
Hi Skate,

Thought I may as well throw my contrarian views on Moving Averages into the discussion.
IMO there is only one type of MA to use, and that is, the Weighted Moving Average.
IMO the best place to use WMA's is on your favourite Indicator (see pages 38, 41 & 43) , Don't like using MA's on Charts, as you know I prefer the Linear Regression on my Charts (see pages 139 to 142).



For those punters that are interested in my approach, those page numbers are within the forum "DrBourse TA Help for Beginners".
Or, for anyone that would like a free .pdf copy of all the pages that I mention, click my Avitar, then select "Start Conversation".
 

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DrBourse said:
IMO there is only one type of MA to use, and that is, the Weighted Moving Average
Click to expand...

MovingAverage said:
I've tried a lot of different MAs over the years but admittedly in the context of an index filter. Overall I keep coming back to the old fashioned simple MA as it seems to be the most robust across a range of different markets.
Click to expand...

We are all creatures of habit
We all have our favourite indicators & usually stay within the comfort of those select few. Making a few posts on the SMA, EMA, WMA, KAMA, AMA, AMA2 & Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio was so others could understand the major differences. Each has their own place in trading & that shouldn't be discounted.

Avoiding false breakouts is a common goal among trend traders
The Kaufman Efficiency Ratio provides a simple method of quantifying a market’s noise, helping traders focus on the smoothest trends. I was suggesting you could add Kaufman’s efficiency ratio to a simple trend-following strategy to determine whether its performance improves, that was it in a nutshell. I should have also mentioned that the lookback period should be equal to the longest run of upward/downward price changes. Using a longer lookback period will ‘squeeze’ the ER values together, possibly making it less useful in filtering entry signals.

Summary
Using WMA is good, using an SMA is also good but using KAMA & Kaufman Efficiency Ratio in your strategy is even better. Why? For the reasons, I have explained in the last series of posts. Basically what I'm saying is this - "whatever indicator you are happy with is the right indicator for you".

Skate.
 
Interesting week. We are now at the lower 2SD level. We've been here several times before (July, Oct and Dec) and bounced back. Anyone care to predict next week's movement relative to the lower 2SD?

 
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