Dump it Here

[Skate]

Start date: 8th November 2021
Portfolio Capital: $100,000
Positions in the portfolio: 10
Position Size: $10,000 (no rebalancing)



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Would be interested to see the odd weekly equity curve on some of your longer backtests

Longer backtest
I'll post a few backtest for some of my trading strategies. I've used exactly 3 years for them all. Why? because the first quarter of 2020 covers the period of the Covid Flash Crash. My mature strategies were at that stage well in profit but still managed to give back a portion of that profit, unfortunately.

Carrying on the theme of starting a new strategy at the worst possible time
In my opinion, starting a new strategy on the 6th November would have tested the best of traders. These 4 strategies are solid performers & snuggle into my stable of trading strategies just nicely.

Disclaimer
1. The portfolio size is a standard $100k for ease of comparison.
2. I don't trade $100k portfolios.
3. I use rebalancing whereas the backtest don't.
4. I normally don't restrict my PositionSize to 10-positions or 20-positions.
5. The backtest reports are to demonstrate the returns with $100k invested over the previous 3 years

The BlueWren Strategy
This strategy is as old as me & over time it just won't die, it manages to hold its own even when the going gets tough.
Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 20
Bet size: $5k




The FreeBalling Strategy
This strategy is rather new & has been trading since April of this year & the performance is solid.
Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 20
Bet size: $5k




The PocketPivot Strategy
I have @peter2 to thank for making me look at trading this type of strategy. It's amazing that it performs as well as it does. The idea behind this strategy is robust & outside my comfort of trading. I've been trading this strategy for some time now & I have a mindset that the performance of this strategy won't last - but to my surprise it has.
Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 20
Bet size: $5k




The Simple Strategy
I like the concept behind this strategy, I like the methodology of entry. Let's cut to the chase "I love this strategy"
Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 10
Bet size: $10k



Summary
The returns for four of my strategies are not over the top but they are consistent rock-solid performers. Displaying some of my other strategies would just be puffing.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

How about my favourite Skate system - "The Hybrid Strategy", whose multiple entry strategies miss nothing.

 

[Skate]

How about my favourite Skate system - "The Hybrid Strategy", whose multiple entry strategies miss nothing.

The Hybrid Strategy
This strategy is currently a $650k portfolio with 40-positions. To compare & contrast the portfolio to the others I've posted the strategy has been adjusted.

Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 20
Bet size: $5k



The Panda Strategy
I'm very proud of this strategy & have been trading it for years. This strategy holds a very special place because it was the first strategy to get my eldest son involved in trading. I'm so relieved it kicked him off into profit from the get-go.

Portfolio size: $100k
Positions in the Portfolio: 10
Bet size: $10k



Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

@Skate! I concur firing up your system at a particular time could have significant effect on the system. Will just have to wait so it smoothens out

Over the long term (and I mean in terms of having executed many thousands of trades) when you start should have marginal impact over the long term. Yes, when you start will impact the short term, but not long term

 

[DaveTrade]

Indeed a term deposit would fit the bill?and not too bad long term...

If a term deposit would fit the bill, I would use a term deposit. You sound like you may doubt my ability to know what I'm doing and why I'm doing it.

 

[Skate]

You sound like you may doubt my ability to know what I'm doing

Before it escalates
The response wasn't directed at me but I must say I didn't take that from the response @qldfrog gave to you. Terms deposits are those who want to invest in the safest way possible.

The "Dump it here' thread is a little bit different from most threads
The "Dump it here" thread is conducted in a friendly & polite manner that I find refreshing. Being "nice" is a gift to others. I'm just saying "minor comments" can get out of hand quickly.

Reaction
A person's "reaction" is driven by their "perception". We are all emotional critters & sometimes our response is motivated by it.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

If a term deposit would fit the bill, I would use a term deposit. You sound like you may doubt my ability to know what I'm doing and why I'm doing it.

Not at all, we are not on FB here and conversations are generally honest .
I just pointed TD to show that you will need to take risks to have above index performance.
In no way an attack.

 

[Skate]

Timely reminder
At times there have been snide remarks made that are "unacceptable" in the "Dump it here' thread but none have been made in the last few days (IMHO). Emotional responses tend to undermine the friendly atmosphere of any thread, just not this one. It also pays to remember that everyone is entitled to their opinion. The "Dump it here" thread by design is to "pass on knowledge" to others (chewing the fat, is how we learn).

Being right or wrong
Whether your view is right or wrong isn't important, what's more important, this thread gives you the ability to express your views without being "ridiculed or challenged". Every member enjoys a different level of experience & expertise, so there is never a reason to display your level of knowledge by making others feel inferior. If you disagree with someone rather than argue the merits of their points, post an alternative view, you don't have to belittle members to get your point across. Play the "the point" not the "person".

Summary
Ridiculing or challenging others serves no purpose, it just makes the other person work harder to find ways to disagree with you. Offending a member is hard to detect, however, some members post comments or questions to invoke an emotional response. (let's not do that)

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

Not at all, we are not on FB here and conversations are generally honest .
I just pointed TD to show that you will need to take risks to have above index performance.
In no way an attack.

Every investment has it's risk even a savings account, people seem to have read the word 'minimum' as being a predetermined value that I have already specified before I start. It's meaning here is simply to wind down the profit to what I find acceptable thereby reducing the risk side to the minimum in order to obtain this amount of profit.

Before it escalates

When I was in the workforce I was the guy that was called to a problem when nobody else could fix it, so maybe I still have some adjustment to retirement to do. This is the first time I've been on a forum and sometimes posts can be too brief thereby lending themselves to an incorrect interpretation by the emotional reader.

 

[MovingAverage]

Summary
Ridiculing or challenging others serves no purpose, it just makes the other person work harder to find ways to disagree with you. Offending a member is hard to detect, however, some members post comments or questions to invoke an emotional response. (let's not do that)

Skate.

The regular contributors in this thread are always super helpful and their posts are always well intentioned. I honestly don't think the regulars engage in any ridiculing. Part of the issue is that sometimes the "tone" of posts can be misinterpreted by the reader if the reader is not familiar with a particular poster's style. Whole heartedly agree ridiculing serves no purpose, but challenging (when done right) is a great thing as it can cause us to stop and question our approaches.

Anyhow, stay classy ASF

 

[Skate]

but challenging (when done right) is a great thing

Yes, the best challenge is to post an "alternative" view.

We all deserve a measured response, not the alternative
The best posts are the ones you "think" about before posting or replying to.

T - is it true?
H - is it helpful?
I - is it inspiring?
N - is it necessary?
K - is it kind?

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Changing the current direction of the thread
I want to make a few comments on trend-following. I trade a few weekly trend-following strategies, placing my orders before the market opens hoping to be settled at the opening price of the day. Trading this way simulations my backtest results.

Your ability to understand
The ability to understand what your strategy will go through beforehand is probably the best way to deal emotionally with your trading. Backtesting a strategy measures how likely a drawdown will be, how deep it will be & what the worst-case is likely to be when using historical data. As long as your portfolio’s drawdown is within these statistical measures, you know the system is working as planned. Knowing these metrics can help you understand why trading at times can be a roller coaster ride.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Some posts resonate more than others
"Maths, Science, Psychology, Emotions, Computers, Programming - you had me here"

Older posts
I've been reminded recently by a private message that the "Dump it here" thread has a trail of information that they have found very useful. Members contributing their point of view to me is the most "valuable" part of this thread as I'm only repeating stuff that I already know.

To a great degree, our success or failure in the market is a function of our luck
We all like to think that our trading results are a direct consequence of our effort in selecting a position to enter, but to me, it's all about the ability to effectively manage luck. Small traders know that sometimes they will have streaks of bad luck, & other times everything they touch is golden. The key to surviving your run of bad luck is by minimising the amount of damage being inflicted. (how to minimise the damage, is for another discussion).

The other side of the equation is to capitalize when your luck is good
Designing good money management principles to a degree helps but our "success or failure" is having an aggressive approach toward selling but that isn’t enough. In designing a money management system, your first consideration should be how well it protects your capital should your run of bad luck continues. This should be the topic of the conversation.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Yes, the best challenge is to post an "alternative" view.

We all deserve a measured response, not the alternative
The best posts are the ones you "think" about before posting or replying to.

T - is it true?
H - is it helpful?
I - is it inspiring?
N - is it necessary?
K - is it kind?

Skate.

While obviously i f.u. a big way a few posts ago?on that thread,
Will need to pass that filter here as well
I found this is a very useful guide on FB and i deleted heaps of posts before clicking send.
The only negative is that it leaves no place to humour.
Mine being bad and more Dad's jokes leve, it is probably a plus but makes the world a more boring place

 

[Skate]

leaves no place to humour

Humor is always welcomed.

Praying
Do you really think I pray when trading turns south? Where in reality I just go & “kick my dog” (only joking, I don’t have a dog, lucky him)

Another
I fell into a trap, ordering a “penis enlarger” off eBay whilst in lockdown. I was disappointed to receive a “magnifying glass”

Skate.

 

[othmana86]

Over the long term (and I mean in terms of having executed many thousands of trades) when you start should have marginal impact over the long term. Yes, when you start will impact the short term, but not long term

You are right. However in terms of the “mental and emotional “ state for that initial period it is tougher. I did a backtest and had I started the system just 1 or 2 weeks later today it would have been up approx 20 percent. Just knowing that makes me feel better about the strength of the system. Doubt will always seep in though until I see that system back in the green. It’s just human nature haha!

 

[MovingAverage]

You are right. However in terms of the “mental and emotional “ state for that initial period it is tougher. I did a backtest and had I started the system just 1 or 2 weeks later today it would have been up approx 20 percent. Just knowing that makes me feel better about the strength of the system. Doubt will always seep in though until I see that system back in the green. It’s just human nature haha!

For sure, absolutely agree. Sometime system trading is portrayed as being easy—computer just spits out buys and sells and you just execute. But as you point out there is still a very big emotional aspect to system trading that can be very challenging to master and no doubt has been the undoing of many a good system if only folks didn’t let the emotions get in the way (which is far easier said than done)

 

[qldfrog]

For sure, absolutely agree. Sometime system trading is portrayed as being easy—computer just spits out buys and sells and you just execute. But as you point out there is still a very big emotional aspect to system trading that can be very challenging to master and no doubt has been the undoing of many a good system if only folks didn’t let the emotions get in the way (which is far easy said than done)

However good and backtested, whether you built your system or bought it,are using a black box,you are always facing a doubt.
Is the algorithm bug free, is the algorithm right for the current condition , worse the future?
As the future changes,..
Is that DD a drawdown or the start of a slide to zero.
Even if you are statistically right now and in the future, stats are stats so this also means you can be "unlucky" to have a max DD today ,and next week,and the week after
Basically it is possible to have a perfectly good system,suited to prevalent market conditions and yet see your capital hit again and again.anihilated
My way to counter both? Probability and changing environments: so
Diversification (multiple systems on different algorithms)
Diversification (of system realms)
Diversification ( of assets: real estates, currencies, precious metals,cryptos discretionary and system trading)

This means i should get a relatively safer overall outcome,but it ALSO means that you NEVER make a killing and double your wealth in 6 months.
That allows me (more) serenity and make it easier to push the buy and sell as per system "instructions"
For what it is worth...
I think one of Mr Skate's motto/rule is of the kind of
"Do not 'play' what you can not afford to lose"
Rule number 1 indeed

 

[MovingAverage]

However good and backtested, whether you built your system or bought it,are using a black box,you are always facing a doubt.

There's never a perfect time to start trading. One thing is absolutely certain about trading--you will always encounter periods where you results are crap.