Dump it Here

[Skate]

no problem my apologies

@qldfrog you should never feel the need to apologise - your comments are always welcomed & at no time did you step over the mark.

Expressing views
@Darc Knight knows what I'm trying to achieve with this thread knowing that all posts expressing another view are always welcomed & appreciated - sometimes I politely asked others for help to keep this thread on track.

Post with confidence
I've included in the body of the post information that others may not have read. Members who read this post will be reassured that they can post with confidence without being challenged or ridiculed.

Experience
Every member enjoys a different level of experience & expertise, there is never a reason to display your level of knowledge by making others feel inferior.

This thread is for information to help others.

Knee-jerk response
Some posts may inadvertently cause an upset invoking an emotional or knee-jerk response from other posters. I’ve been around long enough to have notice at times personal attacks - repeating of previous posts cause an emotional outburst.

Friendly atmosphere
Such posts undermine the friendly atmosphere and often result in long running feuds between opposing groups by picking one side over the other.

Offending someone
Offending someone on a forum site is hardest thing to detect, simply because it really is in the eye of the beholder – what offends one the other finds amusing.

Express an alternative point of view
It’s even harder to ask a member politely to express an alternative point of view without disagreeing with another poster - this thread is different in content and at the moment it feels comfortable making a post. Whether you agree with the view expressed or if the view is right or wrong isn't important.

If you have an alternate point of view feel free to 'Dump it here'

Skate

 

[Skate]

Communication is so difficult, isn't it? It's extremely hard to understand and be understood when the topic has any degree of complexity or subtlety.

Someone makes a statement like: "technical analysis is better than fundamental". And before you can reply meaningfully, a hundred assumptions need to be unpacked and just as many terms need to be defined in detail. That's if you want to take part in a proper debate. Such a statement as the one above could take a few hours to unpack, but who could be bothered? Even a very astute reply is likely to be met with "yeh but I still think it's better...", and then you realize you've wasted your time trying to help.

I have a few books that I've had to read 10 times before I really got the message. So yeh, change is hard and it happens slowly! One has to be willng to make oneself uncomfortable...over and over again. Inertia equates with safety, so there's some in-built evolutionary resistance.

@Gringotts Bank ‘Dump it here’ thread (Page 17 Post #161)

Let me recap the post
"Communication is so difficult, isn't it? It's extremely hard to understand and be understood when the topic has any degree of complexity or subtlety.

Someone makes a statement like: "technical analysis is better than fundamental". And before you can reply meaningfully, a hundred assumptions need to be unpacked and just as many terms need to be defined in detail. That's if you want to take part in a proper debate. Such a statement as the one above could take a few hours to unpack, but who could be bothered? Even a very astute reply is likely to be met with "yeh but I still think it's better...", and then you realize you've wasted your time trying to help.

I have a few books that I've had to read 10 times before I really got the message. So yeh, change is hard and it happens slowly! One has to be willng to make oneself uncomfortable...over and over again. Inertia equates with safety, so there's some in-built evolutionary resistance"

Why repost
I wanted to repost @Gringotts Bank post in full not because it was a brilliant post (which it was) but to segue to @tech/a new thread. "Tech/a on Technical Analysis"

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tech-a-on-technical-analysis.34448/

I encourage everyone to take an interest in @tech/a thread - he has made me a bucket load of money.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Statement of Facts (about two very important ASF members)

First is @tech/a
‘Dump it here’ thread (Page 31 Post #301)
@tech/a had no idea how instrumental he had been in my success as a trader.

Technical Analysis
@tech/a posts pointed in the correct direction of trading with Technical Analysis.

TechTrader
TechTrader, the trading strategy that @tech/a developed & personally traded has been widely discussed, freely distributed, his software code started me on the path of Technical Analysis & as they say the rest is history

The Second is @captain black (my mentor)
@captain black has helped me immensely over the last three years & I'm happy to say I still enjoy the benefits of his wisdom, his coding ability. (but more importantly I enjoy his ongoing friendship)

@captain black kindly explained how to turn a piece of technical analysis into a code, formulating a strategy that became a complete trading system - a money making machine for me.

Recapping
@tech/a pointed me in the direction of technical analysis - Thank you tech/a
@captain black showed me how to turn technical analysis techniques into a money making machine - Thank you Captain.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

My trading style
My trading investments are made using technical analysis as I understood the concept and the benefits of having a robust mechanical trading system other than the fundamental aspect of trading.

Trading System
It is my belief that to succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place.

Trading algorithm
Most trading strategies used in technical analysis are based on advanced mathematics that indicates if a market is trending or in a cycle

It's up to you
Whatever combination of information you use, whether it media reports, fundamental or technical analysis or a combination of all of those it really depends on you.

Trading is hard
Trading successfully is hard, REALLY hard, which is why the majority of people who try to make money from trading fail.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Do I have any Trading Regrets – (yes I have 2 regrets)

1. I regret not getting into trading sooner.
2. I regret not following one piece of advice given to me by @captain black - by not following his advice cost me over $64K of cold hard cash, an amount I’ve never forgotten, when the Captain speaks I listen.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What is the best - Technical or Fundamental Analysis ?

It’s really all up to you, for you to decide between Technical and Fundamental Analysis and of which camp you feel would give you a trading edge, both analysis processes may give you the confidence to lay your money down.

Some traders feel more aligned to one style than the other, so it all depends on your personal preference and comfort level as to which one you choose in selecting stock to buy.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What is Technical Analysis?

Definition: Technical Analysis is a form of market analysis that studies demand and supply for securities and commodities based on trading volume and price studies.

Charting
Technical Analysis is basically charting based studies.

Market activity
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analysing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Technical analysts allows charts to tell a story

Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Historical performance
Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performances. Technical analysis is also a method for analysing what’s occurring currently in the financial markets and for evaluating the trading action of any given security. It reveals the actual buying and selling decisions of financial market participants.

Statistics
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analysing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

More on Technical analysts

Critics of technical analysis think that chart patterns work until they fail, and the failure of the pattern may not always be predictable from following the past pattern, especially if there is an unforeseen shock.

What about using both Technical and Fundamental Analysis.
One way to curtail the shortcomings of the two methods is to use them together to capture the best aspects of both. Fundamental analysis should be used to determine which stocks or sectors are most likely to perform well based on a strong economic environment and company or sector-specific operations.

How to decide when to buy or when to sell
Technical analysis can then be used to decide when to buy or sell by giving entry and exit points based on moving averages, volume and price trends.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What is Technical Analysis in a nutshell ?

Psychology
Technical Analysis is basically the study of psychology. Its value lies in its ability to help you understand behavioural trends in individual stocks as well as the broad market. People have fairly predictable emotional responses as stocks become cheaper or more expensive and their profits, losses, and available entry point’s change.

Stocks are just like people
If you understand investors’ past behaviour, you can predict their future behaviour. Stocks are just like people, because that is who makes them look the way they do, by buying and selling creates an emotional ebb and flow pattern.

Just like people, stocks can be unpredictable, but certain emotions and behaviours do occur regularly.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I'm not going to keep posting on the subject of Technical Analysis I'll leave that to @tech/a someone very skill in that area

"Tech/a on Technical Analysis"
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tech-a-on-technical-analysis.34448/

Two camps – Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Trading is normally broken into two camps, fundaments or technical analysis, there are those from the school of fundamental analysis and those from a technical background.

It doesn't matter
Whether you use Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis it doesn't matter - one is not right & the other is wrong that's not the point in discussing them.

Technical analysis
Technical analysis is often portrayed as a complex set of tools, composed of intricate calculations. However, it can be easily employed it can also be used as a simple money management tool that can dramatically increase your returns by helping you avoid substantial losses.

Skate.

 

[tech/a]

Much I would add to Skates observations

I do see in his musings what I see in all traders on their path.
It is important to point out and clear up —- well I think it is
I’ll be back as time allows

 

[Skate]

Much I would add to Skates observations

I do see in his musings what I see in all traders on their path.
It is important to point out and clear up —- well I think it is
I’ll be back as time allows

@tech/a is an elder & when he has something to say we should all listen. By listening to @tech/a may set you on a path to financial freedom. (it worked for me)

Skate.

 

[Darc Knight]

What are your thoughts on Index Funds that blindly buy an Index such as the ASX 200. Moody's say Index Funds will be 50% of the market by 2021.
That's billions of dollars blindly buying up shares just because they are in the top 200 market cap wise. That's a lot of over inflation of share prices I would thought. Thanks Skate

 

[tech/a]

Skate
Thank you for the accolades, But you can stop now!

My trading style
My trading investments are made using technical analysis as I understood the concept and the benefits of having a robust mechanical trading system other than the fundamental aspect of trading.

Trading System
It is my belief that to succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place.

Trading algorithm
Most trading strategies used in technical analysis are based on advanced mathematics that indicates if a market is trending or in a cycle

It's up to you
Whatever combination of information you use, whether it media reports, fundamental or technical analysis or a combination of all of those it really depends on you.

Trading is hard
Trading successfully is hard, REALLY hard, which is why the majority of people who try to make money from trading fail.

Skate.

Unfortunately as humans we (excluding those who know better) believe that complexity in some way is related to the quality and
Veracity of a concept presented. Trading is no harder than any profession or sport, many will fail some will be proficient and others
a very small % will excel way above all others.

Do I have any Trading Regrets – (yes I have 2 regrets)

1. I regret not getting into trading sooner.
2. I regret not following one piece of advice given to me by @captain black - by not following his advice cost me over $64K of cold hard cash, an amount I’ve never forgotten, when the Captain speaks I listen.

Skate.

I myself started at 40. Never had enough to invest before, never had enough to lose!
Regrets --None--the journey has enlightened me in so many un related areas of business.
You have to learn what you dont know before you can know what you dont need to know.

What is the best - Technical or Fundamental Analysis ?

It’s really all up to you, for you to decide between Technical and Fundamental Analysis and of which camp you feel would give you a trading edge, both analysis processes may give you the confidence to lay your money down.

Some traders feel more aligned to one style than the other, so it all depends on your personal preference and comfort level as to which one you choose in selecting stock to buy.

Skate.

Technical analysts allows charts to tell a story

Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Historical performance
Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performances. Technical analysis is also a method for analysing what’s occurring currently in the financial markets and for evaluating the trading action of any given security. It reveals the actual buying and selling decisions of financial market participants.

Statistics
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analysing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.

Skate.

More on Technical analysts

Critics of technical analysis think that chart patterns work until they fail, and the failure of the pattern may not always be predictable from following the past pattern, especially if there is an unforeseen shock.

What about using both Technical and Fundamental Analysis.
One way to curtail the shortcomings of the two methods is to use them together to capture the best aspects of both. Fundamental analysis should be used to determine which stocks or sectors are most likely to perform well based on a strong economic environment and company or sector-specific operations.

How to decide when to buy or when to sell
Technical analysis can then be used to decide when to buy or sell by giving entry and exit points based on moving averages, volume and price trends.

Skate.

I've grouped this lot together. This is where many and including myself have been and we all have to get here (Beliefs,findings in our experience).
ALL analysis is about DATA. The analysis of that data and then the implementation of the information that analysis has given us.
The QUALITY of the analysis makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. For pretty well ALL of us the quality at best is passable. Show it to those who truly
understand the analysis of data (EG those who study cancer research data--Engineering Data and advanced financial data or Avionics data) and what we decide to invest $1000s of our hard earned into becomes to them highly risky. Because the tools we have at our disposal are no more than a Bicycle on a freeway.
Gets from A-B but-----there are far better options. (Plane !). We all have access to the tools they have --- spread all over the Net. Soon there will be a new CAR available for us in one place for use on your freeway.

What is Technical Analysis in a nutshell ?

Psychology
Technical Analysis is basically the study of psychology. Its value lies in its ability to help you understand behavioral trends in individual stocks as well as the broad market. People have fairly predictable emotional responses as stocks become cheaper or more expensive and their profits, losses, and available entry point’s change.

Stocks are just like people
If you understand investors’ past behavior, you can predict their future behavior. Stocks are just like people, because that is who makes them look the way they do, by buying and selling creates an emotional ebb and flow pattern.

Just like people, stocks can be unpredictable, but certain emotions and behaviors do occur regularly.

Skate.

Just to add an important point to this.
It is the study of GROUP BEHAVIOR

Shout Fire in a building full of people and they will in the large majority run for the exits.

Drop 1000s of $50 or even $10 notes on the ground and people will come out of no where to pick them up.

Sit around watching something we all enjoy together and the crowd will do very little but watch what happens when it gets boring or exciting!

So we look for indication that these things are going to happen.
We test the data to see if we can take advantage of these indications.
We trade excellent results and continue testing in case the data changes
enough to alter the results of testing.

 

[Skate]

@Darc Knight let me take a few moments as your question is so good it deserves a measured answer.

I'll post in such a way that others who read my answer may find value for themselves.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What are your thoughts on Index Funds that blindly buy an Index such as the ASX 200. Moody's say Index Funds will be 50% of the market by 2021.
That's billions of dollars blindly buying up shares just because they are in the top 200 market cap wise. That's a lot of over inflation of share prices I would thought. Thanks Skate

@Darc Knight Index funds, index trackers, overtime add wealth to many - the value of a share, is subjective. Traders only buy stocks for one reason - in the expectation of an increase in price.

Index Funds & LIC's (Licenced Investment Companies) are the only conservatively stress-free ways I've found to invest (IMHO)

@captain black explained the issues of liquidity & the complexities of moving large sums in & out of the market.

Liquidity & slippage
Understanding the issues associated with liquidity & slippage we now chose to invest half of our capital into separate investment trading companies known as ‘closed’ Licenced Investment Companies (LIC’s) to compound our funds over the next ten years or so.

The strategy to invest half our funds in LIC’s hopefully secures our financial freedom in the future, the second half of our retirement phase. (Living life on our terms)

Dividend reinvestment
By having half our funds invested in this manner, locking away a chunk of our funds into LIC’s for ten years, being vigilant and refraining from touching any part of those funds with dividend reinvestment, letting time and compound interest ‘the eighth wonder of the world’ do its thing.

Reinvesting the dividend plus compounding gives us a great degree of comfort knowing we have planned and prepared for the second half of our retirement, the latter stages of our life.

The only conservatively stress-free way I’ve found to compound money is to invest in managed investment funds (LIC’s) who are professional money managers rather than Index Funds, Index trackers.

Professional managers
If we let the professional managers and have patience letting compounding do its thing I’m sure our investment will mature with a capital increase placing our faith in this strategy.

2 LIC's I would recommend
There are two ‘closed’ Investment Companies’ (LIC’s) with great long term performance figures that are tradable on the Australian market (ASX) & both companies have a long track record of capital growth and consistent dividend payments – those companies are:

1. (ASX: AFI) The Australian Investment Company

2. (ASX: ARG) Argo Investment Company

Both of these LIC’s will handle any long term investment strategy just nicely.

Skate.

 

[Darc Knight]

@Darc Knight Index funds, index trackers, overtime add wealth to many - the value of a share, is subjective. Traders only buy stocks for one reason - in the expectation of an increase in price.

Index Funds & LIC's (Licenced Investment Companies) are the only conservatively stress-free ways I've found to invest (IMHO)

@captain black explained the issues of liquidity & the complexities of moving large sums in & out of the market.

Liquidity & slippage
Understanding the issues associated with liquidity & slippage we now chose to invest half of our capital into separate investment trading companies known as ‘closed’ Licenced Investment Companies (LIC’s) to compound our funds over the next ten years or so.

The strategy to invest half our funds in LIC’s hopefully secures our financial freedom in the future, the second half of our retirement phase. (Living life on our terms)

Dividend reinvestment
By having half our funds invested in this manner, locking away a chunk of our funds into LIC’s for ten years, being vigilant and refraining from touching any part of those funds with dividend reinvestment, letting time and compound interest ‘the eighth wonder of the world’ do its thing.

Reinvesting the dividend plus compounding gives us a great degree of comfort knowing we have planned and prepared for the second half of our retirement, the latter stages of our life.

The only conservatively stress-free way I’ve found to compound money is to invest in managed investment funds (LIC’s) who are professional money managers rather than Index Funds, Index trackers.

Professional managers
If we let the professional managers and have patience letting compounding do its thing I’m sure our investment will mature with a capital increase placing our faith in this strategy.

2 LIC's I would recommend
There are two ‘closed’ Investment Companies’ (LIC’s) with great long term performance figures that are tradable on the Australian market (ASX) & both companies have a long track record of capital growth and consistent dividend payments – those companies are:

1. (ASX: AFI) The Australian Investment Company

2. (ASX: ARG) Argo Investment Company

Both of these LIC’s will handle any long term investment strategy just nicely.

Skate.

Cheers Skate. Thanks for the detailed, very informative post and continuance of a great thread

 

[Skate]

Freedom at Stake

Trading isn’t about getting rich, I've posted this many times, it's more about financial independence supporting yourself without an income, being able to choose to live your life on your terms.

Who decides
The only person who can make sure you’re able to do it on your terms is you...

The measure
Living life on your terms is what life is all about.

Bodhi summed it up perfectly
"We are here to show those guys that are inching their way on the freeways in their metal coffins that the human spirit is still alive."

Sun Tzu
To use another wise quote from Sun Tzu's "The Art of War":
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Cheers Skate. Thanks for the detailed, very informative post and continuance of a great thread

@Darc Knight thank you for "liking" my posts it's a great motivator.

Skate.