Dump it Here

[qldfrog]

I have to say this happy cat will be happy among the sharks of Wall Street

 

[Skate]

Looks like the Happy Cat might have been to the vet over the weekend after choking on the Trump "fur ball" Friday pm.
This week's start had to be in doubt. I'm pleased to see this "cat" is ready to "rock n roll".

@peter2 , in my opinion, today looked like being a shocker from all the early news reports. I was thinking what a week to start my new project knowing others were about to follow along. Using your words "this cat is ready to rock-n-roll".

The work has been done
If nothing else I know how to follow a plan & pull the trigger. Following a strategy consistently has served me well over the last 5 years. I put a tremendous amount of work into my trading strategies & I'm confident all the hard work has been done.

What I think or feel is irrelevant
Take it from me - if I didn't believe this strategy would make money I wouldn't be trading it. I'm "wishing & praying" that other members who decide to trade along with the "HappyCat Strategy" have a stress free experience once again as with the "Action Strategy".

The "HappyCat Strategy" looks the goods
Back on the 1st August 2020, I made a post that the "HappyCat Strategy" is my best work so far & it could eventually be my best strategy. It's a big statement that I still stand-by.

Straight off the bat, after reviewing the backtest & Share Trade Tracker results I'm expecting the "HappyCat Strategy" to be my very best work so far

Why $100k Portfolio size?

$100k Portfolio
When others post backtests reports I've noticed the portfolio size of $100k is often used, so that will be the trading amount of my next live trading endeavour. All I have to do is decide on a strategy to trade.

Why the "HappyCat"?

@Skate how about you trade the happy cat strategy that you have been paper trading a few weeks ago, the dull cat not the shiny cat as it freaks me out as well. It’s only a suggestion as I’ll be happy to follow anything you decide to trade

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Warr87]

orders placed. i'm excited

 

[qldfrog]

To confirm, Mr Skate, your stop losses will be triggered manually at the end of each daily session.
You do not keep ready to trigger trader managed SL as discussed in several other threads.
Thanks again for the opportunity

 

[frugal.rock]

For those buying in tomorrow, expect a strong open...
thus my interest of this morning's buys before close today...
however, am guessing that there's only 4 buys due to the Fridays trump dump debacle... a vicious circle!
The futures numbers tell the story and apparently the Orange bloke is chomping to get out of hospital...

 

[Skate]

To confirm, Mr Skate, your stop losses will be triggered manually at the end of each daily session.
You do not keep ready to trigger trader managed SL as discussed in several other threads.
Thanks again for the opportunity

The HappyCat Strategy is a "Weekly Strategy" - I should have made this clearer from the get-go
@qldfrog this is a weekly system with no manual interference. Exits are triggered "after the close" on Friday & the signals are strategy dependant.

Follow the signals without thinking
Following the buy & sell signals consistently will be the key to the profitability of this strategy (even when you are not in agreeance with the signals). The "HappyCat Strategy" will have a habit of selling profitable positions that at times will be hard to stomach. When positions take a breather or run out of steam it's better to follow the system & exit the position & look for another to enter. I'm sure if the signals are followed religiously without additional intervention all will be fine.

Just to confirm
All the signals are generated on Friday after the close. The signals will be entered into Monday pre-auction & reported after the close.

Why after the close
All my research has been conducted under these test condition & if I report them earlier some will make a decision based on that information. When there is the manual intervention I've found it rarely ends well. Trading the pre-auction using the (-/+ 3%) premium takes out the guesswork of trying to time the purchase - even if you have a conditional order placed in the markets you run the risk the position may fail to execute.

Stop Loss
Just to clarify the exit strategy is dependant on a few conditions other than a variable StopLoss which is a safety net. Timing the sell is the "money-making" part of the exercise, selling the position on a Tuesday with "one extra day delay" will make little to no difference.

The exit strategy
The exit is at the heart of the "HappyCat Strategy" as buy signals are a dime-a-dozen.

The heart & soul of the "HappyCat Strategy"
Volatility & momentum is the heart of all breakout systems but the difference with the "HappyCat Strategy" is that it uses both (ATR & ROC) in unison to filter out the false signals.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 112650


The HappyCat Strategy is a "Weekly Strategy" - I should have made this clearer from the get-go
@qldfrog this is a weekly system with no manual interference. Exits are triggered "after the close" on Friday & the signals are strategy dependant.

Follow the signals without thinking
Following the buy & sell signals consistently will be the key to the profitability of this strategy (even when you are not in agreeance with the signals). The "HappyCat Strategy" will have a habit of selling profitable positions that at times will be hard to stomach. When positions take a breather or run out of steam it's better to follow the system & exit the position & look for another to enter. I'm sure if the signals are followed religiously without additional intervention all will be fine.

Just to confirm
All the signals are generated on Friday after the close. The signals will be entered into Monday pre-auction & reported after the close.

Why after the close
All my research has been conducted under these test condition & if I report them earlier some will make a decision based on that information. When there is the manual intervention I've found it rarely ends well. Trading the pre-auction using the (-/+ 3%) premium takes out the guesswork of trying to time the purchase - even if you have a conditional order placed in the markets you run the risk the position may fail to execute.

Stop Loss
Just to clarify the exit strategy is dependant on a few conditions other than a variable StopLoss which is a safety net. Timing the sell is the "money-making" part of the exercise, selling the position on a Tuesday with "one extra day delay" will make little to no difference.

The exit strategy
The exit is at the heart of the "HappyCat Strategy" as buy signals are a dime-a-dozen.

The heart & soul of the "HappyCat Strategy"
Volatility & momentum is the heart of all breakout systems but the difference with the "HappyCat Strategy" is that it uses both (ATR & ROC) in unison to filter out the false signals.

Skate.

Thanks a lot, just got confused by the specific SL column.my mistake
So all good and standard as per your previous weekly systems or the ones most of us use here.
All orders sets, spreadsheet ready to capture history:
Let's start the adventure

 

[peter2]

@Skate Happy Cat query. I don't see how BSE could be one of the candidates.
Is this a typo, should it be DSE?

 

[Skate]

@Skate Happy Cat query. I don't see how BSE could be one of the candidates.
Is this a typo, should it be DSE?

@peter2 BSE is correct.

What is the concern with the position?









Skate.

 

[peter2]

BSE: IMO the ROC is down from it's recent peak. Price hasn't moved up in the past three weeks so it's unlikely to have been triggered by an ATR indicator. The other candidates have been going up in recent weeks. BSE is the "odd one out".


I'm unaware of your indicator parameters. So if you've checked it. Onward and upward.

 

[Warr87]

I also thought BSE was the odd one out. But a signal is a signal. It's a maths game, let's play the numbers (they'll work out).

 

[Skate]

BSE: IMO the ROC is down from it's recent peak. Price hasn't moved up in the past three weeks so it's unlikely to have been triggered by an ATR indicator. The other candidates have been going up in recent weeks. BSE is the "odd one out".
I'm unaware of your indicator parameters. So if you've checked it. Onward and upward.

BSE - meets the buy criteria
@peter2 after sowing doubt I've doubled down & rechecked the entire strategy. I can report the entry signals meets the buy criteria. I have changed the Ribbon to indicate the period the buy criteria is TRUE. The signal bar & buy bar are also displayed might help others understand the "HappyCat Strategy" a little better.

I've changed the ribbon
I have changed the chart ribbon to reflect when the buy condition is TRUE, red when the condition is FALSE.



The signal has been cross-referenced
My Ducati Blue Bar Strategy is uncannily accurate in picking the turn of a trend & it indicates that the "HappyCat Strategy" is on the right track taking the signal BSE. Whether BSE turns out to be a winner is yet to be determined as only time will tell.

I also thought BSE was the odd one out. But a signal is a signal. It's a maths game, let's play the numbers (they'll work out).

A signal is a signal
@Warr87 you are correct, trading is a numbers game, a game of mathematics. (BSE) might be a DUD but at this early stage who really knows. As you say "a signal is a signal".

As system traders
We have one job & one job only - that is to follow the signals religiously without exception.

In summary
The buy signal for (BSE) is correct, meeting the entry criteria of the strategy.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

My Ducati Blue Bar Strategy is uncannily accurate in picking the turn of a trend

My thoughts had me believe Fridays bar could be the first blue bar again as per your chart for BSE, but not with the greatest conviction.

Maybe it was yesterday's bar throwing some confusion in?
The signal for BSE is usually one that I like, however, there is a couple of other factors which currently invalidate my bias.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[peter2]

Thanks @Skate for the further clarification of the signal in the BSE chart.

I'd like to discuss this "signal" further but I don't wish to create any doubts or indecision in the minds of those following the Happy Cat system.

With that in mind. If I was using this strategy I would not consider the latest signal in the BSE chart as a valid signal. I would modify the coding so that it didn't show up. (*) Even though the entry conditions are still valid (the blue ribbon), there's been no new recent momentum in the price to trigger another entry after the recent trade exit. The recent exit was a trade management exit not a strategy exit. We know that it's the trade management that creates the profitable mathematical edge that we desire. I could classify the recent exit as a reversal of momentum exit. It's not a strategy (trend) exit because we know the trend continues as long as the ribbon remains blue.

(*) My modification: It may be clearer for the system (entries and exits considered together) if any of the trade mgt exits also trigger the ribbon to turn red. If this were the case in this chart there would be no new entry triggered.

I've placed a tick at the last valid (IMO) entry. I've also circled a second chance entry when the strategy (blue ribbon) turned on again. This second chance is only valid if the first entry was not taken (fully invested, asleep at the wheel etc. ).

It's very important to get into price rallies as early as possible.

 

[aus_trader]

Thanks @Skate for the further clarification of the signal in the BSE chart.

I'd like to discuss this "signal" further but I don't wish to create any doubts or indecision in the minds of those following the Happy Cat system.

With that in mind. If I was using this strategy I would not consider the latest signal in the BSE chart as a valid signal. I would modify the coding so that it didn't show up. (*) Even though the entry conditions are still valid (the blue ribbon), there's been no new recent momentum in the price to trigger another entry after the recent trade exit. The recent exit was a trade management exit not a strategy exit. We know that it's the trade management that creates the profitable mathematical edge that we desire. I could classify the recent exit as a reversal of momentum exit. It's not a strategy (trend) exit because we know the trend continues as long as the ribbon remains blue.

(*) My modification: It may be clearer for the system (entries and exits considered together) if any of the trade mgt exits also trigger the ribbon to turn red. If this were the case in this chart there would be no new entry triggered.

I've placed a tick at the last valid (IMO) entry. I've also circled a second chance entry when the strategy (blue ribbon) turned on again. This second chance is only valid if the first entry was not taken (fully invested, asleep at the wheel etc. ).

It's very important to get into price rallies as early as possible.

View attachment 112695

Peter, as always we truly value your input and thinking. I hope I have credited you for all your valuable information and the willingness to teach others on ASF, I certainly have learned from the sharing of your knowledge and experience many times.

I kind of remember Skate mention that this Happy Cat strategy can buy into consolidations as well as into strength. Let me see if I can find where it was mentioned and re-quote it (see the part highlighted in blue colour):

Background
I've previously explained the working of the "HappyCat Strategy" but as a refresher, the strategy uses volatility & momentum to enter & exit positions. There is a multitude of indicators that can help identify the direction, strength, momentum & volatility but the HappyCat uses only two indicators (ROC & ATR) to keep the strategy simple. Typically, the “HappyCat Strategy” analyses momentum & volatility near the top & bottom of a price range helping to identify where to enter & exit a trade. The two indicators even focus on the volatility & momentum during price consolidation & retracements which is a new idea for me.

 

[aus_trader]

Looks like Ioneer has run away, one of the biggest gainers of today:

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

(*) My modification: It may be clearer for the system (entries and exits considered together) if any of the trade mgt exits also trigger the ribbon to turn red. If this were the case in this chart there would be no new entry triggered.

@peter2 thank you for your suggestion. I have poured over my development notes of the "HappyCat Strategy" & found a version of the strategy that had the highest "probability for profitability". This version of the strategy was quickly discarded for a few reasons.

Profits are not the measure of the tradeability of a strategy
Trading is a constant trade-off between (a) annual return versus the drawdown & (b) the number of round trades over a trading period.

Improvements
The "HappyCat Version" of the strategy that I'm trading sits in the goldilocks range of returns.

Ramping up the returns of the "HappyCat Strategy"
When chasing higher returns a modified version trades its head off. Why? because the exit is a breakdown (the reverse) of the original buy condition. What this means in English is the exit is dependant of the buy condition being FALSE or for visual representation, it's when the ribbon turns from blue to red. This sounds simple & clean but positions are not given time to mature into profitability. Personally, I prefer to give each position a bit of slack. I prefer to sell a position dependant on a few different parameters being met.

Backtesting
I've said backtesting means "Jack" but in this case, I'll throw up a backtest report to indicate how often this version trades over a short period of time (1st July 2020 to the end of trade today). Over a longer period, the trade count expands exponentially.

The breakdown exit version of the "HappyCat Strategy"
When the buy condition is TRUE a position is entered & when it's FALSE the position is sold. This strategy doesn't finesse the exits but rather exits when the buy condition is no longer TRUE.

Crude, fast & effective
Is one way to describe the BreakDown version of the strategy but I couldn't trade it - No way!

If I may say
As a systematic trader, chasing the "highest returns" is not the name of the game.



Skate.