Dump it Here

[Warr87]

@tech/a ML software is still in the development stage AFAIK

Qualification
Employers love degrees & qualifications - my office wall was once covered in them (they now reside in a plastic bag) @Warr87 has already given you good advice on Uni so I'll leave it at that.

Being a full time trader
With bucket-loads of money behind you, full time trading is an option otherwise stick to your day job. As they say with trading "how do you end up with a Million Dollars at the end of the year?" = Start with two (million) @qldfrog has also given you good advice.

Skate.

They do. My issue is usually being over qualified for most jobs, but that hasn't stopped me from going back and studying again. I love it and don't learn for the financial benefit, but it always helps. Uni is more about qualifications and it's meant to teach (outside of the domain specific knowledge) persistence, time management, reasoning skills, and logic. It's a point lost on most and many see it as merely a means for a high paying job. I think there is more to it than that, but I will jump down from that soapbox.

I also had a question about your CAM strategy. You obviously don't position score based on price. Is it ROC * some other indicator? What are some of the positionscoring ideas you like to rotate through when testing your systems?

I also had a question in regards to your CAM strategy (and perhaps its a good question for @qldfrog as well). Do you have a preference to buy the PB or the CT, or it doesn't matter for you?

 

[aus_trader]

(a) Have you ever executed a sell only to see the position reverse & take off again.

Yes Skate, happens often. But I went back to look at what happens if I just held onto the losers hoping they might take off again. Well the result is comforting, I am glad to have let go of losers when I did. Other than the occasional turn-around winner which I rarely catch as I am already onto researching other stocks or new themes in the market, the bulk of the losers sold tend to drift further down over time.

So emotionally it can be challenging to see a loser turn into a winner and go for a big run without me, but statistically it's re-assuring to stick to what I am doing by letting go of losers once it's dropped far enough.

 

[Skate]

They do. My issue is usually being over qualified for most jobs, but that hasn't stopped me from going back and studying again. I love it and don't learn for the financial benefit, but it always helps. Uni is more about qualifications and it's meant to teach (outside of the domain specific knowledge) persistence, time management, reasoning skills, and logic. It's a point lost on most and many see it as merely a means for a high paying job. I think there is more to it than that, but I will jump down from that soapbox.

I also had a question about your CAM strategy. You obviously don't position score based on price. Is it ROC * some other indicator? What are some of the positionscoring ideas you like to rotate through when testing your systems?

I also had a question in regards to your CAM strategy (and perhaps its a good question for @qldfrog as well). Do you have a preference to buy the PB or the CT, or it doesn't matter for you?

@Warr87 - with PositionScore it's horses for courses - it's about dancing to the music being played, meaning one PositionScore doesn't fit all strategies (they need to be in tune with the strategy). The PositionScore can be one of the deciding factors of the overall profitability of any strategy. There are a multitude listed on the net for you to play with. I've tried every ranking code I could get my hands on & tested them to death to achieve better results than @captain black suggested one that suited my trading style & strategy & he would have "my guts for garters" if I disclosed it or even spoke about it.

Disclaimer
I use a proprietary 'Positionscore code' given to me by 'captain black' & if I was to disclose the ranking method or his code he would have my "guts for garters"

Don't throwaway a good strategy
At all cost you need to get the ranking correct or you might just throw away a good strategy.

The CAM Strategy
To answer your second question the CAM strategy buys "pullbacks" (PB) in existing trends and buys "countertrends" (CT) when the rally continues. There is no preference in selection, the (PositionScore) decides the ranking - meaning the signal that comes first (highest in the list) is the one you buy first whether its a "pullbacks" (PB) or "countertrends" (CT) signal. PositionScore is ranked in decending order.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Yes Skate, happens often. But I went back to look at what happens if I just held onto the losers hoping they might take off again. Well the result is comforting, I am glad to have let go of losers when I did. Other than the occasional turn-around winner which I rarely catch as I am already onto researching other stocks or new themes in the market, the bulk of the losers sold tend to drift further down over time.

So emotionally it can be challenging to see a loser turn into a winner and go for a big run without me, but statistically it's re-assuring to stick to what I am doing by letting go of losers once it's dropped far enough.

@aus_trader you are so correct. I hope others take notice of your post, well done on handling positions as you do.

Selling
Successful trading is largely the art of selling. Buying a stock is easy. It is determining when to cut our losses or when to take our profits that is hard. Because it is so hard to determine when it is the right time to sell, many just don’t do it.

Selling is a valuable tactical tool
Selling a position is by far the most valuable tactical tool that the individual trader has at their disposal. Too many traders seem to think that if they sell a position, they are somehow prevented from buying it back again. You can buy & sell any position any time, with trading there are no rules (having no rules is scary)

Misery of selling a large loss
When the misery of a big loss is suddenly removed by selling the position you'll feel a surge of energy - the weight will be lifted & you might be surprised at how readily you can find other opportunities that will help you make up your loss. Don't be a sore loser, take it on the chin & move on & take the next position. (keep pulling the trigger)

Boxing
I had to keep throwing punches or the fight would be stopped, it's the same with trading - when you stop pulling the trigger the game is all over. As a boxer I had one job "TO KEEP STANDING" once I hit the canvas the fight would be as good as over. In trading you have one job to do "PROTECT YOU TRADING CAPITAL" if you don't protect your capital the game will be good as over .

Skate.

 

[Warr87]

I figured that was the case. I have used the PB method of the CAM strategy, added my own flair, and coded a PB system (it worked quite well).

And you are correct about the importance of positionscore. I know you have looked at my code, changed my positionscore, and the whole system turned around and became a lot more profitable. While exits are key, improving the entries with positionscore certainly helps to improve an edge by building consistency.

Yes Skate, happens often. But I went back to look at what happens if I just held onto the losers hoping they might take off again. Well the result is comforting, I am glad to have let go of losers when I did. Other than the occasional turn-around winner which I rarely catch as I am already onto researching other stocks or new themes in the market, the bulk of the losers sold tend to drift further down over time.

So emotionally it can be challenging to see a loser turn into a winner and go for a big run without me, but statistically it's re-assuring to stick to what I am doing by letting go of losers once it's dropped far enough.

I haven't done this myself but looking at MAE could also help to narrow down if an exit has been timed well. That wont stop a 'loser' turning into a big winner though. Can't win them all.

 

[aus_trader]

When the misery of a big loss is suddenly removed by selling the position you'll feel a surge of energy - the weight will be lifted & you might be surprised at how readily you can find other opportunities that will help you make up your loss.

Golden words Skate, I wholeheartedly agree.

Holding onto losing stocks is not only a drain in the trading account but it's a psychological burden as well I find. Once let go, its lighter on your shoulders and helps to clear the head for moving forward.

 

[Skate]

I know you have looked at my code, changed my positionscore, and the whole system turned around and became a lot more profitable. While exits are key, improving the entries with positionscore certainly helps to improve an edge by building consistency.

@Warr87 thank you for publicly acknowledging the small amount of helped I'd given you that was beneficial to your strategy. I appreciate your post.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

@Warr87

I also had a question in regards to your CAM strategy (and perhaps its a good question for @qldfrog as well). Do you have a preference to buy the PB or the CT, or it doesn't matter for you?

I did a lot of tweak on the code, while it does keep a lot of a CAM strategy it does not use the CT anymore ..yeap..
Out of the multiple types of buy signals I get, i do not adopt any preference as my score is used indiscriminately for all..You do not need to be a genius to realise this is not optimum and i am aware but that should be good enough for the time being.This was/is my first go and there are so many more important issues for me to master.The buys are also quite rare so I seldom have to choose between two buys, or at least not yet after a year or so

Maybe misguided pride but I did not want to use a strategy provided as is by @Skate, I would feel like I would be stealing in a way, so added tweak to reach an hopefully similar backtest result

 

[Newt]

Thoroughly agree.
Any further news on @tech/a sons software?
Finding myself at mental crossroads...do I continue the pathway to registration (surveyor) or do I use transferrable skills and head the trading path, whilst still surveying out of enjoyment? Continue Uni for a piece of paper or to advance the mathematical analysis? Aargh!
What have I done...!
F.Rock

Trading is something you can commit to or stop doing anytime.

Gaining a formal tertiary qualification, or finishing one you've started, can be much harder in a few years' time and I've seen many people greatly regret not finishing one they had started.

I've got a few formal qualifications and would strongly argue the effort, commitment and TIME required to become a consistent trader is on a par with gaining a 4 year tertiary degree. The difference is you'll hopefully be employable with the degree, but some people never get to be profitable or somewhat consistent with trading.

There's nothing to stop you becoming a rock star, pro golfer, world class musician or many professions, but most people of course don't succeed. Others here have pointed out in the end you have to decide what you're most passionate about.

One other aspect about trading - it definitely doesn't have to be an "all or nothing" pursuit, especially if you have time and age on your side

 

[Newt]

I left something out - its all about investing in yourself. People looking for some extra dollars from trading should seriously consider the proposition they could make more stengthening an existing qualification or gaining another in the profession they already practice.

There's no get rich quick in trading, and its takes a lot of capital as skate has mentioned.

Again, not reasons to NOT pursue it or even go F/T, but things that many probably don't truthfully consider before trading had earned dollar, or do so with insufficient or ill-concieved information.

Trading does have the potential to be life changing, in the long run, and can still be pursued beside a career you're already passionate about.

 

[frugal.rock]

Don't waste the (en) Dash...

Ok, I won't spray my inner thoughts on the forum late at night again. I know better and this will be a measured response, in keeping with the thread.

I will not quit my day job. (Sole trader)
I will continue the online Uni course.(finish the course they say...Bachelor o Spatial Sciences (Honours) Major; Surveying -Geomatic Engineering... easy for someone to say that.... a little more time consuming to do...)
I will continue to strive for registration... (I may end up setting a record there... the oldest person to become registered...)
I will manage my time so that I can achieve the end results.

@Skate you commonly refer to people as stupid or idiots or lacking intelligence. (generalisations)

We're not born with intelligence, we don't inherit it, it's not in our jeans genes.
Intelligence is a measure created by conformists so they feel intelligent.
(I know you know this... positive re-enforcement for you too!)
A person is the sum of their experiences and unless something (or indeed usually someone) at some stage in one's life, opens the mind to endless possibilities, we remain like water, finding the easiest path, tribal trend...(I prefer electricity analogy...!)
You guys rock. You made me remember a circle geometry spreadsheet I did in 2013 for TAFE diploma. (Circle Master 2000) that took me over 28 hours to put together. I am crap with math's (can't remember it), but succeeded through determined doggedness and the internet.
(I tell my kids how lucky they are having all the library's in the world available on the internet, so to speak.)
Losing track, getting tired. Dump over for today. Time to crank some zzzzz's
Much obliged to you all, and especially to you @Skate , for not wasting your dash!
(Bookie, boxer, engineer, ASF mentor... ___insert more here___)
F.Rock

 

[ducati916]

@Warr87 thank you for publicly acknowledging the small amount of helped I'd given you that was beneficial to your strategy. I appreciate your post.

Skate.

Entry criteria on top of entry criteria (position score). From your previous disclosure, it would seem to improve the results. I'll have a think on this.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Re. University.

Qualifications are the entry point to government controlled monopolies (Law, Medicine, etc). Monopolies have pricing power, there are not many poor lawyers/doctors/etc and also provides stability of employment, whether as an employee, contractor or business owner. They are also, to a degree, recession resistant if the economy takes a dive.

As a 'start-up', they are so much easier than a non-professional business. They are in most countries subsidised (educational loans) and have a standardised entry process.

To make real money trading (and everyone's definition of real money will be slightly different) you need to (generally, there are exceptions) turn it into a business. There are a number of models, but they involve OPM, whether as a Hedge Fund, or some other.

You will (and again there can be exceptions) trade 'better' if you have an alternative income. There are any number of day trader videos on Youtube, and I do watch the odd one...I am constantly amazed at how much money they leave on the table. This is due to the fear of turning a good trade (profit) into a bad trade (loss). You can almost feel the mental exhaustion. Swing trading suffers from the same issue, it is just not as visible as it is in the day trader.

To make an equivalent living from trading (outside of managing OPM) as you would from a profession, try calculating (based on % returns) how much capital would be required. It will be substantial.

Of course, as already mentioned, there is nothing preventing someone with a profession, from trading.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Lets talk about decision making (Faulty Thinking)
Many years ago I read an article why Doctors make mistakes. I'll write a post about Doctors & faulty thinking later today.

Think about this
If highly trained medical practitioners can get it wrong what chance is there of traders getting it constantly right. We "CAN" & we "DO" make better decisions because of a few reasons, "time" & "technology"

Doctors
They make their diagnosis "quickly" because of their lack of time using hunches from incomplete information, what hope have they really got.

A serious design flaw - faulty thinking
People are naturally pleased when processing information that supports their beliefs. Confirmation bias, the tendency to embrace information that supports their beliefs & reject information that contradicts them. Of the many forms of faulty thinking confirmation bias is right up there & it’s hard to conceive of a more serious design flaw than this.

Another serious design flaw - Conviction
A person with a conviction is a hard person to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures & he questions your sources. Appeal to logic & he fails to see your point. People tend not to listen to alternative views. Your belief system defines whether you agree or disagree with them but if you don’t listen you forgo the right to understand their point of view.

From my experience
It pays to listen to everyone & than you decide if it’s relevant or helpful. You get to decide what to keep & what to discard. When you don’t listen you forgo the right to learn.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Lets talk about decision making (Faulty Thinking)
Many years ago I read an article why Doctors make mistakes. I'll write a post about Doctors & faulty thinking later today.

Think about this
If highly trained medical practitioners can get it wrong what chance is there of traders getting it constantly right. We "CAN" & we "DO" make better decisions because of a few reasons, "time" & "technology"

Doctors
They make their diagnosis "quickly" because of their lack of time using hunches from incomplete information, what hope have they really got.

A serious design flaw - faulty thinking
People are naturally pleased when processing information that supports their beliefs. Confirmation bias, the tendency to embrace information that supports their beliefs & reject information that contradicts them. Of the many forms of faulty thinking confirmation bias is right up there & it’s hard to conceive of a more serious design flaw than this.

Another serious design flaw - Conviction
A person with a conviction is a hard person to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point. People tend not to listen to alternative views.

Skate.

Are we talking global warming here?
My view is you should not have any conviction unless proven by experience..not foolproof but..do not take anything for granted
Be it trading or else
Did i believe a system would work, or the cam? No, you go thru the hard Yakka and convince yourself based on results, these backtests..always in a context
The sad thing as you age is that you gather this experience, that knowledge, not on just reading books, that is not enough, but thru your dash-content, then few are ready to share accept it, be it family or others, be it investment or science,relationship or other fields
Probably a whole of mankind issue
With no obvious solution.
And getting worse as i believe the investigative mind is disappearing
Convictions are just beliefs unless based on facts

 

[Skate]

Are we talking global warming here? My view is you should not have any conviction unless proven by experience..not foolproof but..do not take anything for granted
Be it trading or else

@qldfrog we are not talking about global warming & please don't incite an emotive response from others in the "Dump it here" thread, this is a friendly thread. Let me make additional comments about the subject in hand. Lets stick to trading as you have mentioned in your post.

How we all think
When trading & under the influence of emotions, we tend to surrender our emotional intelligence & this is why trading is such a difficult endeavour being constantly hijacked by our emotions encouraging us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Another crazy fault is that we tend to have a selectively recall of only certain information that validates what we now know to be true & then create a story about it to make sense out of the event as we attempt to explain it to ourselves. Our mind creates stories & over time we start to believe it as fact, being absolutely true (when they aren't)

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Faulty Thinking (It's the typical way we tend to think)
I read an article many years ago about how Doctors think leading to patients being misdiagnosed. When you sit down & explain to your Doctor in a few words the reason for the visit most Doctors jump to a conclusion already having in mind two or three possible diagnoses within minutes of meeting you as a patient.

I'll paraphrase the Story from memory
First off, I would like to confirm the story I'm about to tell is fictitious & to confirm to readers "I've never forgotten anything that I can remember" (said tongue in cheek)

It a common condition that would send most of us to the Emergency Room of a hospital
The story is about a guy who experienced muscle pains, chest pains whilst enjoying his regular evening walk, after a few days the pain never went away completely. He frequently experienced muscle aches & minor discomfort as his job entailed physical work. This time he decided to see a Doctor taking himself off to the emergency room to save going to his GP taking time off work. He explained to the Doctor in (ER) that the pain was in his chest & didn't spread to his arms, neck or back, with no family history of heart attack, never smoked with no stress & his family life was fine. The doctor checked his vitals & they were in range for a typical for a 60 year old fit looking athletic man. The Doctor sent him for an ECG, Chest X-Ray & blood tests & all the results looked normal

The "Diagnosis"
The Doctor told him that he had probably over exerted himself & strained a muscle & the discomfort in the chest was nothing to be worried about.

The next morning
When the guy represent to the (ER) the next morning they discovered he had a heart attack

Why did the Doctor miss it?
The Doctor didn’t miss it because of any egregious behaviour, lack of knowledge or negligence. He missed it because of (faulty thinking) as his thinking was overly influenced by how healthy this man looked & the absence of risk factors. It's amazing to read the number of errors made by doctors especially faulty decisions made under the stressful conditions of the emergency room. It's an old saying: "The undertakers "cover-up" Doctors mistakes"

Time pressures & jumping to conclusions
Doctors begin to diagnose patients the moment they meet & tend to develop their hunches from incomplete information, jumping to conclusions. Doctors are dealing with uncertainty of symptoms being presented that are conveyed over a short space of time that can lead to mistakes in medical judgment, a misdiagnoses by snapping to the easiest decision is how doctors think.

As Traders
It pays for us not to think like a Doctor, we have "time & technology" allowing us to make informed rational decisions - make sure you use both in this game.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@Skate you commonly refer to people as stupid or idiots or lacking intelligence. (generalisations)

Let me answer that sentence (in my defense)
Posting words such as those need to be taken textually & the interpretation of those words within the post. Sometimes I uses the words descriptively & never directly at someone. (I tell a lie, I've used it once directed at a member to evoke an emotion & get the response I was looking for - it was to demonstrate a point of a previous post - that was lost on him)

For the sake of fairness
I'll post the "flame/serve" to understand textually where it came - in my next post.

Colourful career
I'm the typical "jack of all trades, master of none" type. In all my adult life I have never called anyone stupid.

I know stupid
I don't know at lot of things but "I know stupid when I hear it or read it"

Masturbating in public
"Satisfying your urge to call someone stupid is like masturbating in public. It may feel good to you, but it looks disgusting to everyone else”

It pays to listen
When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know. But if you listen, you may learn something new. (this is good advice IMHO)

Interesting people
We have all met interesting people, we hang on their every word, we find what they say interesting & stimulating. When you meet someone you find interesting or different that's when a real conversation starts.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The members name is withheld to protect the innocent

For the sake of fairness
In my previous post I said I would re-post the "flame/serve" I gave to a member to understand textually where it came - the post below is unaltered.

## The post STARTS HERE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I respectively, disagree with your response"
Thank you for being so polite, speaks volumes & I now have a better understanding why you have taken a stance in the manner that you did.

"I will just go back to being the norm"
WOW, upset and with attitude, hopefully after reading my response we will be cordial once more, & build upon our friendship. The last post was written in such a way to evoke your emotions, expressing your beliefs to me.

Helpful criticism
Sometimes giving someone an example on the topic being discussed it feels to them as a personal attack instead of helpful criticism.

I'm sorry but you won't get the same feeling again after you know when someone says something to inflame the situation & I'm going to give you another example. (the next paragraph is only for demonstration purposes only) it shouldn't cause any emotions

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXAMPLE ONLY (make sure you are in the zone the correct head-space or it will mess with you)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"ARE YOU THAT STUPID YOU CAN'T READ", I re-posted this "AGAIN" so you can read it again, reading it the second time you might get it, you can't really be this thick (this post is off topic & now completed) !!!!! READ IT AGAIN YOU MORON.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that's an example of flaming, it's designed to inflame your emotions a little more. (It's baiting you so "I" in return can have some more fun, a BIGGER, BETTER experience for me, at your expense) knowing what I said was only an example (for your education) the emotion is not the same, or it shouldn't be & neither should it be an ongoing issue for you.

Ambiguity
Most of my posts I post with ambiguity in mind, other times they are cryptic, you would have read many of my posts without giving them a second thought. People just react & I was politely point this out to you.

Are we friends again (I was playing with you to reinforce a point)
I was messing with you, so you better understand manipulation, conditioning, my words were written to achieve the response I wanted. Sometimes you need to be cruel to be kind.

Feel the words
I wanted you not only read my post but "FEEL" the words in my post, I wanted to manipulate your emotions.

Takeaway
Don't you ever let anyone do that to you again, you'll learn from this experience.

Oblivious
Everyone else reading this post or my previous post to you wouldn't have felt the emotions you did because the words were targeted at you, other would be oblivious to what you felt.

Silver Shoes
Hopefully other will go back & re-read my original post to you, understand & see your point of view by putting themselves in your shoes.

I'm sorry
I'm sorry to use your emotions to express my point of view.

I understand what Skate did
You should be now saying.. "ahh, Skate got me"

Work on your emotions (90% of trading is how you control your emotion)
If my post is still an issue for you, that's Okay, it means you need to do a little bit more work on controlling your emotions.

Are we mates again ?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## The post ENDS HERE

Skate.

 

[barney]

It pays to listen
When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know. But if you listen, you may learn something new.

Personally I consider myself a simple man. One of the smartest chaps I know resembles a walking encyclopedia (he is getting on in years unfortunately)

When I am fortunate enough to chew a bit of fat with him, I mainly listen as you suggest @Skate

To his absolute credit, he is extremely humble in his knowledge and constantly reminds me "he knows nothing" … he simply repeats what he has read/learned/digested etc etc as part of his life experience.

I guess true knowledge is accepting we know very little in reality and therefore become open to greater possibilities.