Dow Jones/Nasdaq!

[DTM]

Just read some interesting comments on H/C. I dont understand charts but saying something about a diamond pattern and that the dow will probably fall. Views on the dow and its impact for the end of the year?

I'm not sure what diamond patterns are either but the Dow is struggling. Its meeting long term resistance and I can see it dropping by a lot. Its nearly ready to fall off the edge so to speak.

I can see it getting to 9500 personally.

 

[excalibur]

Dow Jones: Breakout????

:iagree:

Is this the week where the Dow will breakout??
I don`t see anything that may counter it. Or dose somebody know more than I do???
Any comments?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Dow Jones: Breakout????

:iagree:

Is this the week where the Dow will breakout??
I don`t see anything that may counter it. Or dose somebody know more than I do???
Any comments?

"break out" do u mean up or down?

Thanks

 

[excalibur]

Hi Mike,

The arrow was pointing in the "up" direction.
And looking at the latest figures...I think I ´m right.

Cheers.

 

[wayneL]

Oh Kaloo Kalay, Oh Hip Hip Hooray

Dow 11,000!!! Frankinsense and Myrrh all round!!!

 

[tech/a]

I've always said that the emerging economies have been UNDER estimated.
For the positive effects (Longterm) that they will have on established economies in the position to benefit.

While there is plenty of arguement regarding USA over spending that in itself is dwarfed by the economic spending generated and created by these emerging economies.

Some will benefit more than others and if we are smart enough AUSTRALIA could be one of the major benificiaries.

Who was it that said when everyone thinks the same (Doom and Gloom) best to be contrarian!

 

[ducati916]

All,

The US is currently within a secular bear market. While the economy and stockmarket are correlated, one (economy) is not directly causal for the other (stockmarkets). The current climate, and preceeding three years gives a graphic example.

Inflation, and or deflation, both movements away from price stability are however directly causal to both Bond & Stock markets in regards to their Bull & Bear cycles.

Inflation can and obviously does have serious implications for the economy, the consequences are generally much slower to make themselves felt, and you have as a broad generalization two very distinct classes if you wish, "Business and Consumer", which can be divergent from one another.

As the US is caught in the bear, selectivity, will, and has had far more impact and importance than it has had in the ASX, which has and is currently enjoying a secular bull market.

The old aphorism, "Never confuse a bull market for brains" has particular relevance, particularly for novice traders, as a bull market for equity, is far more forgiving and tends to paper over weakness in methodology and temperment.

jog on
d998

 

[wayneL]

All,

The US is currently within a secular bear market. While the economy and stockmarket are correlated, one (economy) is not directly causal for the other (stockmarkets). The current climate, and preceeding three years gives a graphic example.

Inflation, and or deflation, both movements away from price stability are however directly causal to both Bond & Stock markets in regards to their Bull & Bear cycles.

Inflation can and obviously does have serious implications for the economy, the consequences are generally much slower to make themselves felt, and you have as a broad generalization two very distinct classes if you wish, "Business and Consumer", which can be divergent from one another.

As the US is caught in the bear, selectivity, will, and has had far more impact and importance than it has had in the ASX, which has and is currently enjoying a secular bull market.

The old aphorism, "Never confuse a bull market for brains" has particular relevance, particularly for novice traders, as a bull market for equity, is far more forgiving and tends to paper over weakness in methodology and temperment.

jog on
d998

Sheez Duc, How many of these things do you have? 999, 998, 916 etc etc LOL

Welcome ( I feel some lengthy threads coming on LOL)

p.s. (you'll know me as enzo on reefcap )

 

[wayneL]

So, to paraphrase, you're saying that stockpicking is very important in the Evil Empire, because of the secular bear, whereas in OZ because of the secular bull, you can hop on any old fleabitten dog and still make money?

This I can agree with and is self evident.

But does this mean you've turned bearish on the Evil Empire?...what happened to the DIA ETF's you were once desirous of?

Cheers

 

[ducati916]

Wayne/enzo

Actually, through the grapevine, someone had already informed me of your duality of monikers.
I see tech/a is also over here, far too much time on his hands lazy b*****d.

As regards the US, I have revised my calculation of the DJI, the "standard" calculation was far to optimistic, and as I have developed my own inputs, erring far more to the defensive or conservative, so my view has "modified".

Having said that, this at the moment is a stealth bear, with a fairly obvious trading range currently. Volatility I believe is slowly on the increase, as volatility is driven by the influence of inflationary factors upon the Fed and their monetary policy. BB will it seems be hawkish on inflation, and will due to inexperience, & the time lag in data measurement, possibly overshoot.

This overshoot, will impact earnings, but more importantly the multipliers that investors will use in calculating returns. Therefore, in an overshoot scenario, we will have some big drops through the range, with the inevitable bounce & Bull rallies, thus increasing volatility.

Stockpicking, while always important , assumes far greater import within Bear markets than Bull markets, assuming "long" positions.
If "shorting" then the inverse would hold. As the "majority" tend to be "long", (as shorting requires some very specific skills, unless a "derivative" trader), then currently in the ASX, almost any stock will provide profit, although, the boat for the easier trades has left port. In the US, only 2003/2004 and the bounce, provided anything resembling a Bull market since 1999.

Of course that leaves your methodology of choice, timing the market, or pricing the market as far as my opinion goes, no contest baby!

jog on
d998

 

[dutchie]

DOW up 60.6 (0.55%)

ASX- looks like it might be a green day.

 

[dutchie]

All ords (up 50) followed DOW (up 60) yesterday.

This morning the DOW was down 26.

Looks like ASX could be a 50/50 day.

 

[dutchie]

All ords followed the DOW (-26) on Friday being down -2.3

Friday night the DOW was down -4

ASX looks like it could buck that today and be a green day.

 

[dutchie]

ASX just stayed in green yesterday (+5.3) lamely defying previous DOW (-3.9).

DOW down -63 overnight.

ASX could defy that again today with another green day.

 

[professor_frink]

hi dutchie,
what makes you say we could have an up day today?

 

[dutchie]

G'day Prof.

Just by early indications (Opening auction). But looks like I'm dead wrong at the moment.

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[wayneL]

G'day Prof.

Just by early indications (Opening auction). But looks like I'm dead wrong at the moment.

Cheers

Dutchie

Dutchie

The SPI is the best guide. It was showing about 45 pts down.

cheers

 

[dutchie]

Thanks Wayne.

I'll try that in future.

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[dutchie]

By the way Wayne where do I find on the net charts etc of SPI???

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[wayneL]

By the way Wayne where do I find on the net charts etc of SPI???

Cheers

Dutchie

Hmmmm

There is nowhere for live prices. SPI opens @9:50 so by the time you get the delayed prices the ASX will be open.

You can get the overnight 24 hour chart here:http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ASI1!&o=&a=V:15&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

It's 20 minutes delayed but will give you a good guide

Or if you have MIRC go to othernet/#trade - you can get live prices there

Cheers