DJS - David Jones

[Dutchy3]

Not my preferred time frame and I also note the parabolic weekly chart ... all the same have been a buyer the last two days of this week .... quick and dirty

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not my preferred time frame and I also note the parabolic weekly chart ... all the same have been a buyer the last two days of this week .... quick and dirty

Nothing like a bit of retail therapy Dutchy
The twins have done well lately (DJS & HVN). What price target are you looking for or will you bail out at the first sign of weekness? CFD's I presume?

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Unc

Second sign of weakness and yep CFD's ... the weekys a concern though even when I try not to pick market tops this one has had a great run ... might only get 10 - 20 % but nicely geared

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The next cab off the takeover rank perhaps? What's going on here? Topped out at $5.40 so far today, big volume.

 

[Dutchy3]

Really .... a take over? Goodie ... Might have to revise my expectations for this one , 10 - 20% has already been achieved ...

 

[BuzzMoo]

Hi all, first post, long time lurker - very new to trading but i thought I'd open a thread because I couldn't find any discussion on David Jones, and need a sounding board for developing my analysis! My very first trade was with this stock and I made $90 or so, and I was going to keep riding the wave. But these economic worries have muted the Santa Claus rally i was hoping for, and the January Effect surely is horribly distorted this year on account of the troubles. I haven't jumped back in because I don't feel confident in predicting the news, and things could get pretty dramatic.

Still, I understand DJS to have profited well during Dec and will likley post increased profits.

That said, the stock is currently trading at $5, found resistance at 5.5 on NYE and has dropped through the 5.06 support it found mid Dec. Looking at my charts i see the next support at 4.8.

On bad economic news I can see it falling, if the news lightens up it looks like it would be happy to run back up to previous highs as it looks like it took some heavy selling today. My limited technical analysis skills don't paint a satisfactory picture... I'm one of those guys who reads the news first and then looks at the charts.

Any thoughts/experiences appreciated!

 

[imaginator]

What happened to the stock price? If u look at the chart it stinks. Is subprime the problem here?

Today they posted higher profit. But will it break that big downtrend on their charts?

 

[roland]

Been collecting a few DJS around this level since reading the report from Aegis. Aegis have put a buy on the stock with an expected low of around $3.20 - obviously we are there already

Dividend return is now better than most of the banks and 100% franked. 12 month target is around $5.00

Pity the volume seems a little low, but looks to be quite a stable stock.

 

[roland]

It's a bit lonely here in DJS land

Closed at $2.93 today, or 3.62% down for the day. The lowest it's been since August 2006. I picked up some more today at $2.95 bring my average down to a little over $3.20.

Dividend yield at this level is nearing 8% fully franked.

Annoucements today show that Ausbil Dexia Ltd have just become a substantial holder with picking up 24.5M shares.

I am personally quite confident that DJS at these levels is a very good buy. Indicative growth for FY08-09 is 5%-10% PAT.

Just my opinion and not a recomendation - as always


P.S. Still waiting for my DJ Shareholders card to get 2% off everything in their stores as well - that'll make the missus happy

 

[kenny]

Hi Roland,

Hopefully it's not as quiet in the DJ's stores themselves.

I'm curious on what strategy are you considering to average down on DJS?

The stock has recently come up on my radar as a possible turnaround soon BUT the retail sector and especially the discretionary spending part of it is not facing rosy times ahead.

Aspect Huntley is getting interested sub $3.00.

Do you think the attractive historical yield is sustainable with depressed sales figures?

regards,

Kenny

 

[roland]

Hi kenny,

I got some more at $2.82, so my average is now $3.16. My plan with DJS was always to go in light and average down until I have collected the quantity I was after and then just sit on it.

As for the dividend yield ... well, I suppose one would like to think it will hold. I don't believe that DJS are under any financial stress. Their customers tend to be in the higher income bracket of the market, so they are probably under less stress than some of the heavy discounters - like Clive Peters for example.

 

[roland]

2 x very nice days running for DJS, have sold off 2 x parcels at a good 8% gain. Still have 3 x parcels and will start collecting again if it goes below $3.00

DJS is shaping up to be quite an interesting short term trading stock. Not a huge volume, but quite volatile.

 

[roland]

another great day for David Jones - up 5.33% to $3.36, a little higher through the course of the day.

I am all in profit now and trying to decide whether to sell and take the profit, or to hold for dividends.

I suspect that I am close to being the only holder of DJS on ASF

 

[roland]

a bit of slippage today, down nearly 3% for no other reason than the usual clone "follow the market". I suspect a little panic profit taking since we are on a 6 week SP high.

 

[roland]

Sold! (well except for 1K which I bought at $3.48), at $3.48. Now I am waiting for the guts to drop out of it again so I can get them back. I now have "sellers remorse"

 

[roland]

Buying opportunity for me with the drop to $3.30, only 1,000 units - brings my average down to $3.40

Aegis have lowered their 12 month target to $3.57 and have the following comentary:

After reporting a strong Christmas trading period, DJS has maintained 2H08 guidance of 8%-13%, which we see as attainable. The company has undertaken to deliver 5%-10% NPAT growth through the cycle and committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of not less than 85%. The slowing of consumer spending is starting to impact DJS' like-for-like sales growth rates, however, management has taken steps to offset lower sales through cost reduction strategies.

So, maybe a slightly weaker Dividend payout - but should retain enough value to make the div worthwhile.

 

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

DJS -19.72%

 

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

DJS -19.72%

Well, I held - and traded where applicable, collected some dividends on the way and now up 20.35% (not including dividend returns)

Quite an amazing turnaround.

I must say that I am quite impressed with the management team at David Jones, they are very quick with adjustments to inventory. Focusing on exclusive product lines takes away some of the profit eating practices of maintaining price competiveness with other retailers cutting margins to maintain market share.

Unlike the over optimistic forecasts of some other companies, DJS projections tend to be cautious and if anything a little pessimistic - a recipe that can easily delight the market when they appear to over achieve.

 

[Julia]

That's an interesting "disproving" of the maxim "never hold a falling stock", Roland. Did you have a level at which you would have sold, or did you have such faith in DJS that you were confident to hold for a rebound?

 

[skc]

I have said it before and I will say it again..

NEVER under-estimate the power of Miranda Kerr (and Megan Gale).

Well done Roland. But Julia asked the question I wanted to ask as well. Was it lucky, insight or other?