CXY - Cougar Energy

springhill said:

Cougar has moved from Trading Halt to Suspension from Official Quotation. Ive had no experience with this before in my portfolio
What is the difference between the 2 and what are the possible reasons for SOQ?

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The way I see it is as the stock was on the rise rapidly, someone must have known something the rest of us didn't. The asx calls it insider knowledge (trading); not necesarrily from Cougar, maybe another interested party. As the stock was on the rise it presumes good news. The only way to put a stop to this kind of carrying'on is put a stop to trading. Watch what happens today. I feel we are all in for a good, big surprise.

A bout of indigestion
from the look of the chart

False Catapult
collapse back into the Fulcrum base

looks to have found support

Looks to be building a larger reversal formation

In a buy zone (IMO ) 50% zone ...

dyor

I hold

motorway

motorway said:

A bout of indigestion
from the look of the chart

False Catapult
collapse back into the Fulcrum base

looks to have found support

Looks to be building a larger reversal formation

In a buy zone (IMO ) 50% zone ...

dyor

I hold

motorway

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Ummm hey Motorway I understood some of that but not most of it, care to put it again in laymen terms for a chartiing noob like myself?

From what I can see 6c looks like good support, especially since 70M shares were recently placed at that level to Melbourne Capital, 7.5c looks like resistance, be interesting to see if it can push through that

Well if you look at the chart you see a good base

With a mid pattern rally

Flat bottom... all good ACCUMULLATION SUPPORT

It then moves up

But CXY did the placement = indigestion

So there is churning and a fall back into the base pattern

BUT it did not go all the way back to the bottom
it has found support ,So all things, it is forming a larger base

IT had to with the extra shares

The placement in context is a good sign

Company seems to be acheiving

So a bit of indigestion
but then maybe a breakout next time

So with the support here
and unlikely to go lower ( chart )

Here is a good entry point all things considered ( this zone )

At resistance the risk is it moves back down again
wait for lower prices , does not look so likely

downside risk looks low
upside looks good

The action ( buying and selling ) has produced the base

looks a bottom.... Also the company could provide a news stream

good interest already

DYOR

I have followed the stock for a long time
It owes me nothing

Just look at the chart -- what do You see
It is a classic looking accumulation base

The indigestion would be a negative sign
if there was no placement

( supply swamped demand )


But there was. So a few hicups before the breakout ( maybe )
shares seems to be being bought
move back down OK at this stage

chart looks small scale
but nearly a year of action here ( action , just the action , no noise )

motorway

HIGHLY unusual volume for for Cougar today
Sellers have been being soaked up rapidly for days now
A big leak of upcoming news, or just more money flowing into a heating up energy sector?

Incredible. Held 8.5c on high volume for a few days, (mass buying, mass selling). Strong finish yesterday, even climbed 0.6c during CSPA yesterday for a total gain of 1.5c (18.29%) for the day. Now today (high volume again on a terrible day on the market), it was sold down to 9.2c and in 20mins recovered to touch 10.5c.

CXY is revisiting the last time resistance of the 10.5 and seems to be faring much better this time (closed at 10.5c bid, 11c sell, touched 11.5c during trading). Support building below, but still some big sell orders.

CXY's 2nd QLD project, the Wondoan Project in the Surat Basin is being drilled this month with an initial JORC compliant coal resource of between 200 - 300 million tonnes. Six holes drilled in this area November last year, intersected coal seams suitable for application of the UCG process. Add this to the fact that they are also commencing a funding roadshow this month in an attempt to get funding for a 400MW power station in Kingaroy, QLD. This could be an interesting month!

Following on from the recent posts I made

Since that "indigestion" ( The congestion with the 4 in it )

The action on the chart is of continuing acccumulation
The excursions that get a bit ahead
are to the upside.( Gives the bullish pattern ). The zone of support is broadening and level (points ) of support are rising

The congestions patterns are neat and "well formed" at the base
with backing and filling moving off the bottoms...

Take the name of the stock and the scale from the chart

look at it with unbiased eyes
And this (weather ) map of demand and supply
points to some sort of upward breakout


We can identify "conditions" that tend to outcomes ( eg Storms or Sunny days)

But the outcomes themselves are never certain ..

So dyor and analysis


motorway

.005 x 1
.005 x 5

Pattersons have just initiated coverage on CXY with a BUY recommendation with a target price of 20 cents (current price 10 cents)

Several interesting snippets

"Our NPV of $0.19 per share is based on cashflows from the power
project. The power station will have an installed capacity of 186MW
in the first phase by 2013 and a total capacity of 400MW by 2015. Electricity generated is expected to be
low cost, at below $30/MWh compared to power prices forecast to
be over $50/MWh from 2013 and beyond for a total capex of $500m "

"Over the past 12 months CXY and the rest of the UCG sector, within which we include CNX, REY, LBY
and LNC, have performed poorly. This is largely a result of the general falls in the share market but
also specifically due to the big falls in the oil and energy sector. Linc was considered the leader in the
sector and setbacks in its planned coal-to-gas-to-liquids project have also reflected negatively on the
UCG sector.
It must be understood that the three clear leaders in the
field are LNC, CNX, and CXY but also that they each have slightly different UCG processes and
different products. LNC is focusing more on liquids, CXY more on electricity and CNX on a combination
of chemicals and electricity.
At this stage, however, it now appears that its two smaller rivals, CNX and CXY have
overtaken LNC in their timelines for first phase production"

"Cougar has a technology partnership with Ergo Exergy Technologies Inc of Canada. Ergo Exergy’s UCG
technology was used at the Angren (Uzbekistan) site for over 40 years, which was then transferred to
the Chinchilla, Queensland site in 1999 and used by Linc at the time. In 2007 Ergo successfully
commissioned the pilot burn for the 2100 MW Majuba UCG power project in South Africa for Eskom
(the state power monopoly in the country)."

"Cougar will be a baseload electricity generator and will likely enter into long term offtake contracts
with one or more of the large distributors in Queensland or in the rest of the NEM. The Kingaroy
Project is 20 kilometres from the Tarong Power Station and its associated electrical sub-station and is
therefore in close proximity to the Queensland electricity grid. This mitigates the costs of power line
construction and connection costs."

CXY has certainly been looking strong lately. Does anyone know the current situation on the pilot burn? ... it was originally scheduled for July - but I haven't heard if it's still on target, or been delayed for whatever reason.
Either way its starting to look like Dr Len is DA Man ! The experience of Ergo energy and Dr Lens chinchilla burn is invaluable.

In here soon me thinks.....

-D

Dukey said:

CXY has certainly been looking strong lately. Does anyone know the current situation on the pilot burn? ... it was originally scheduled for July - but I haven't heard if it's still on target, or been delayed for whatever reason.
Either way its starting to look like Dr Len is DA Man ! The experience of Ergo energy and Dr Lens chinchilla burn is invaluable.

In here soon me thinks.....

-D

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Here you go Dukey, further info on the pilot burn....

The commissioning (ignition of coal) of the pre-production burn is
targeted for November/December 2009 and the gas burned at this
phase will be flared. While the Queensland Government is
processing the permit to allow the pre-production plant to be
constructed and commissioned, Cougar has already received and let
tenders for plant and equipment.

Thx springhill. I didn't realise it had been put back so far.
still - Dec will be here before we blink.....
might jump in anyway.

Dukey said:

Thx springhill. I didn't realise it had been put back so far.
still - Dec will be here before we blink.....
might jump in anyway.

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You're welcome mate, heres some further timeline targets for upcoming progressions

Pre-Production Commissioning Q4 2009-Q1 2010
BFS Q2-Q3 2010
Licenses & Permits Q3 2009-Q4 2011
Long Lead Items Procurement Q3 2010-Q4 2011
Project Funding Q4 2010
Plant Construction Q1 2011-Q4 2012
Production Q1 2013

Hi guys, I just started looking at CXY and it sounds like a great story. I've researched them to a degree and their technology expertise looks solid with the link to Ergo Exergy and the Boss' connections but I haven't found much in the way of their track record on obtaining funding.

It looks like they need about $350M to commission the power generation component of the UCG project (the part that brings in the $$) and their last cap raising produced $4M. Different circumstances & requirement but what is the consensus on them getting the $$ to commercialise this or have they hinted at a partnership??? From what I've read they seem to want to go it alone... Any insights??

Jerstir said:

Hi guys, I just started looking at CXY and it sounds like a great story. I've researched them to a degree and their technology expertise looks solid with the link to Ergo Exergy and the Boss' connections but I haven't found much in the way of their track record on obtaining funding.

It looks like they need about $350M to commission the power generation component of the UCG project (the part that brings in the $$) and their last cap raising produced $4M. Different circumstances & requirement but what is the consensus on them getting the $$ to commercialise this or have they hinted at a partnership??? From what I've read they seem to want to go it alone... Any insights??

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This may help in your query on the funding aspect

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090504/pdf/31hdp1q6lk371q.pdf

Thanks muchly, that's what I was hoping for.... I guess the next step is feedback on how their roadshows are received..

CXY have released their 2009 EGM presentation

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090731/pdf/31jv6grwlpqnl4.pdf

Im very much liking the fact they have access to coal seams greater than 150m depth for UGC on Cockatoo Coal's adjacent tenemants

Summary of todays ASX release

"...Development Engineering Pty Ltd (EDE) will undertake all earthworks, civil works, mechanical, piping, electrical and instrumentation works at the Kingaroy site. Fabrication of pressure piping will begin in August and mobilisation to site is targeted for 1 September 2009.

The “Mineral f” permit required under the Queensland Mineral Resources
Act has been received, enabling Cougar Energy to specifically establish a UCG
project on site within its Mineral Development Licence 385.

On present forward planning estimates, gas production in the Kingaroy Project Pre- Production Phase should commence early in January 2010..."

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A few good sales at 10c after market release before a few profit takers moved in from earlier buys. I'm no chartist but it looks like this one may be ready to go.

Footnote: I hold all these CSG plays

This share has seemed so promising for so many years, but it can't maintain anything about 10c. Wait for the funding announcement, that might help it out a bit. Disc: I don't hold.

ands said:

This share has seemed so promising for so many years, but it can't maintain anything about 10c. Wait for the funding announcement, that might help it out a bit. Disc: I don't hold.

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The way they have cheap as **** options backed up it may be a while before this breaks out of this trading range. I happily hold.... for the long term