CXY - Cougar Energy

[Calliope]

I'm with you Djayness. I don't have a clue what Motorway was trying to say perhaps he is having a lend of us. I am sticking with CXY anyway based on nothing more than optimism.

 

[motorway]

I'm with you Djayness. I don't have a clue what Motorway was trying to say perhaps he is having a lend of us. I am sticking with CXY anyway based on nothing more than optimism.

No way..

I pointed out that .09 might be a significant area
and it is proving so far to be so

I am pushed for time atm
I will try to post some charts later

Anything I say is only a view of the moment
with the subsequent action to confirm or negate

So if that is understood

I would agree with a view
That from .11 to the low

There were signs of re accumulation

That is what we want to see
to prove that all the earlier volume was
not just momentum

I am still holding ...

But realize it can all change

eg The whole energy sector came off..

If you don't understand
discuss..

We can see a lot of speculative traders came in at the top
Without all the other issues it might have found support at a higher level

After all CXY has a lot of real potential ?

What do you think ?

The emotion cycles
occur on every scale..

someones pessimism is another's opportunity
what is your scale / time horizon ?

We all need to be a clear about that

motorway

 

[cordelia]

Motorway..you obviously spend a significant amount of time composing your posts which are quite complex. But what is the point if no one can understand what you are trying to say? I for one would actually be interested in the point you are trying to make...but quite honestly, I don't get it....please elaborate

 

[motorway]

Cordelia

Try this chart for a start.

The thin red line
is the immediate trend.

The grey Xs are the fluctuations around that trend
They are the fluctuations that are producing the trend.

demand and supply swing price back and forth like a pendulum
Each X is a unit of .01 cent

The red line is the moving pivot ( equilibrium ) point of these swings .

The fluctuations are not in clock time
But We could call it transaction time
in the mkts own time ( So the real pattern can be revealed )

You can see how volatility shrinks and expands around the immediate trend

( talk about that in a moment )

Once some sort of intermediate trend is underway ( So the swings are not random ) There is movement along the 45 degree lines ( the thick red ones )

There is also the green trend channel
picking up a coarser frame, an investors frame..

Ok note the volume histogram
The max volume has occurred along the .09 line

note the two blue curve lines
I am highlighting two patterns
that are very similar
consider that emotion cycle

Doubt,Discovery,Hesitation,
Adoration, MANIA, Denial
Hope, Recognition, REPRIEVE ( The secondary bounces )
Liquidation
( maybe PANIC )

and on to--------> Recovery----Doubt

Have a good look at these two patterns on the chart
then see if you can assign the sentiments

note how I said they occur on all scales

OK Now note the two blue arrows

This is where We are NOW
This is where We were THEN

( The nature of this chart linear Scale means there is more detail in the
pattern at the higher price level, But Do you see how much the same they are ? The sentiments that drive the market are ageless ... This is just one version of them )

So where does it go now ?

In the last three columns Volume has picked up
esp at the .10 line

Any resiliency ( price action that springs back up from being pushed down )
around this level

Could be a BUY signal
The chart slowing ( That is the Xs post at a slower rate )
And increase in volume
Could be a Buy signal ( I can not give advice )

Maybe you understand the term dead centre
Now ? Those swings ( Fluctuations ) around the immediate trend subsiding.
As demand and supply come into balance .

We want to see the chart
meet strong support here ..

You can think of these patterns as bubbles that are blown
By those who buy the bulges...

The chart is at a logical danger point
That .09 line could become resistance

( A Wyckoff analogy is falling thought the ice of a frozen creek..To get back up
and not drown is hard because , the current sweeps you along and you are trapped under solid ice )..

But it is not resistance yet
and at the danger points
is the max opportunity
( The opposite of the tops of the manic bubbles , I also call them conveyor belts )

After all . The green channel is an uptrend channel.
and the correct question is why that is so
( The fundamental story ? )

motorway

 

[WindriderAU]

Thanks Motorway for the great post about the chart. I am still learning, so always keen to understand how various people interpret the charts.

At the moment it sometimes seems like someone is reading tea leaves, appears to be a bit of subjectiveness to some charts, but I am learning, learning, learning.

Question - sometimes you have numbers in the chart instead of an 'X'. What do the numbers mean?

Thanks

 

[motorway]

Thanks Motorway for the great post about the chart. I am still learning, so always keen to understand how various people interpret the charts.

At the moment it sometimes seems like someone is reading tea leaves, appears to be a bit of subjectiveness to some charts, but I am learning, learning, learning.

Question - sometimes you have numbers in the chart instead of an 'X'. What do the numbers mean?

Thanks

The numbers correspond to the months of the year
1 to 9 is jan to Sept A B C is Oct Nov Dec...

You use them for comparisons
and to aid in gauging the speed, the dullness or activity.

It is an easy chart to keep by hand ( Computers are still catching up to hand drawn charts )

Grab some 2 mm Graph paper and a good pen...
You can draw your chart form the course of sales

.01 is a good box size ( for CXY ), This is a one box reversal chart , note that there can be two X in the one column and never just one.
Coordinate with a bar chart

Such a chart will teach you a lot of how stock fluctuations really move.
About support and resistance, markup and mark down , about pattern about time..
About how prices move in waves ( Buying and selling waves )
and a lot more...

As well as doing that you could find a virtual random coin toss on the web and graph a chart from the random tosses that are made..

You maybe soon spot the differences
and will never believe anyone who tells you stock prices are random..

This form of charting is grounded in Supply and Demand
and the flow of information...

motorway

 

[cordelia]

thanks very much for the fanatastic explanation..Its certainly very clear and easy ier to understand Makes sense now......

 

[WindriderAU]

Motorway, thanks for the explanation. I am still missing a bit, so if you could help that would be great.

On the chart graph itself, the chart is made up of 'X's. But splashed throughout the 'X's there are those numbers you mentioned and the ABC, but I don't understand why the replace the 'X's. For example in May the charts are made up from the following characters: X, A, B, C, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9.

Not sure what the characters apart from the X represent in this area of the chart. If they do represent Jan - Dec, then what significance do they have at this spot on the chart.

I imagine you are busy like the rest of us, so I appreciate your time.

Thanks

 

[rhen]

Purchased some CXY today on the basis that LNC had left my bid behind and the fact that my chart gave a buy signal for Monday. Nearly pulled out when I heard what the DJones did this morning. Looks quite positive from a (my) fundamental point of view too. It still is speculative and the risk is high. DYOR.

 

[motorway]

Motorway, thanks for the explanation. I am still missing a bit, so if you could help that would be great.

On the chart graph itself, the chart is made up of 'X's. But splashed throughout the 'X's there are those numbers you mentioned and the ABC, but I don't understand why the replace the 'X's. For example in May the charts are made up from the following characters: X, A, B, C, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9.

Not sure what the characters apart from the X represent in this area of the chart. If they do represent Jan - Dec, then what significance do they have at this spot on the chart.

I imagine you are busy like the rest of us, so I appreciate your time.

Thanks

No the years are at the bottom

The A is the start of October in 2007
B is the start of November
C December

The 1 is Jan in 2008
2 is Feb and so on
to 8 which is the start of August

IF the chart moves into September then a 9 will appear

Make sure you click on the chart to expand it
Often you have to click then again.

motorway

 

[WindriderAU]

Hi Motorway, if I could work out how to paste an image, then I would. But in your chart (not the months at the bottom of the screen). The graphs are made up of X's and letters ABC, and numbers. Was just curious what they represented whilst placed in the graphs. Maybe it is just my browser, everyone else might be seeing just X's.

 

[motorway]

The numbers at the bottom are the YEARS

Not the Months


So the 05 is the year 2005 --- NOT MAY

The numbers and letters that replace the Xs in the charts
Are the Months...

Doubt,Discovery,Hesitation,
Adoration, MANIA, Denial
Hope, Recognition, REPRIEVE ( The secondary bounces )
Liquidation
( maybe PANIC )

and on to--------> Recovery----Doubt

-------> Hesitation ??

The two poles simply are FEAR and HOPE...

These two create all Herding behavior ( Think of a herd of antelopes. )

Between fear and hope ....lay doubt & hesitation ( think about it

This basic ageless ( instinctive ? ) pattern
is what makes the patterns...

Fear is an event
To get to hope is a process..

Once bitten TWICE SHY etc

These patterns create the opportunities
These patterns we might call Fractal .
Or if there are fractal patterns this is a big reason why.

You can see Time is a different thing here

How old are a smokers lungs ?
How old will they become ?

Same with these patterns
in what time do they unfold?
How will we measure them ?

Such are some of the Whys
behind this this type of charting
and you can do it and learn it with just a pen and paper

motorway

 

[WindriderAU]

Aha. Knowing that the numbers at the bottom of the chart are the years makes it all clear now.

Thanks

 

[Djayness]

Has anyone got any explanation of the share price at current. It seems like alot of options are being exercised but surely that cannot be the only contributer to the sharp falls we have seen in the last few days.

Motorway, do you have any updated charts on this share?

 

[motorway]

Has anyone got any explanation of the share price at current. It seems like alot of options are being exercised but surely that cannot be the only contributer to the sharp falls we have seen in the last few days.

Motorway, do you have any updated charts on this share?

Any one stock is a microcosm of the big picture ( nightmare ? ) that is in play and unfolding...

Those drivers

Doubt,Discovery,Hesitation,
Adoration, MANIA, Denial
Hope, Recognition, REPRIEVE ( The secondary bounces )
Liquidation( maybe PANIC )

and on to--------> Recovery----Doubt

Are forces operating on a huge scale

To ask why is xyz going down is like asking why something falls down in an earthquake...

There is a total wash out of leverage and speculation

Stocks are falling because they can be sold
and stocks with the most speculative followings are falling the most..

We did see significant speculative activity in CXY

so it is a little part of the great unwinding.

As is commodities and energy

OIL prices ?

"It is difficult to over-emphasize the importance of studying the technical position, particularly when making a speculative commitment. Many people may say, "What is a weak or a strong technical position?"

My reply is, in brief, that a stock is in a weak technical position on the bull side when it has been purchased and is held by a large number of outside speculators; when most of these are looking for a profit;

when the price of the stock has advanced to a point where no further buying can be stimulated for the time being. It stands to reason that when buying power is exhausted a stock must decline, no matter how strong its finances, management or earning power."

"On the other hand, a stock is in a weak technical position on the short side when the bears have exhausted their ammunition by selling all they can afford and when the buying power of investment and speculative purchasers is such that it resists the pressure of the bears; in other words, when demand overcomes supply. ......"


Richard D Wyckoff .1922

Every bull move, and Every bear decline, contain the seeds of their own destruction.

speculation , leverage
A great unwinding

Liquidation and Panic
Will build a Strong technical position
when it stands to reason that------>

The multitude of small traders must be, as a plain necessity, out of the market at the bottom.

-----> As a plain necessity...

CXY like everything else will stop going down
after "You" sell

just like it stopped going up after "You" bought

Who ever "YOU" is
Try and make sure it is not YOU

Ok so when is CXY a buy and is it a buy

That is your call...

The Charts are fine in context imo

Some comment from Jim Rogers ( a commodity and energy Bull )

There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.

"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products… there's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."

"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired,"

Very Important Point

What is the energy story going forward ?

Is CXY unimpaired when mkts "come out of it "?

What is the timing ?

Everything is as much a market story atm
as an individual one

motorway

 

[Doris]

New Tarong Power station... should that insure CXY as it supplies 100% of the coal?

Part of one of several anns this week:

25 November 2008
COUGAR SECURES 100% OF KINGAROY UCG PROJECT AND EXPANDS SURAT BASIN COAL INTERESTS

Cougar Energy Ltd (ASX Code: CXY) is pleased to announce that it has signed an Agreement with Cockatoo Coal Ltd (“Cockatoo”) to acquire Cockatoo’s interest in the Kingaroy Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) project area in Queensland.

The Agreement also provides Cougar with a more flexible access to additional Surat Basin coal leases, which could in turn generate a large coal resource suitable for the development of a second UCG project in that State.

The acquisition of Cockatoo’s interest in the Kingaroy UCG project area will secure for Cougar a 100% ownership of the proposed Kingaroy UCG Power Project, which involves the planned construction in stages of a 400MW power station.

Significantly, this Project is contained within lease areas which are free from any overlying Petroleum tenements, as past drilling has indicated no evidence of any contained methane in the coal seams.

In the current climate of potential conflict between companies with rights to access the same coal seam for either coal seam gas or UCG production, this creates a great degree of certainty in Cougar’s planning for Project development.

The area designated for the Kingaroy UCG Power Project (refer Figure 1 attached) lies within Exploration Permit for Coal (EPC) 882 owned by a subsidiary of Cockatoo. The area is divided into two parts, an area covered by Mineral Development Licence Application (MDLA) 385, which is currently awaiting grant, and a northern area which will be the subject of an additional MDLA. The Agreement provides for Cougar to own 100% of both MDL’s once receipt of Ministerial Approval has been received.

The Cougar-Cockatoo Agreement provides for the issuing to Cockatoo of 15 million CXY shares following grant and transfer of MDL 385, and the submission of the new MDLA for the northern part of the designated area.

The Board of Cougar is extremely excited to have finalised the Agreement to acquire the balance of the Kingaroy UCG project, which ensures that it can be developed free from the responsibilities associated with meeting any relevant joint venture requirements. The project is currently moving ahead on schedule with the continuation of the drilling program on site to collect design data for the pilot burn, and to install groundwater monitoring equipment. Final design for the gas processing plant has been completed and manufacture of key plant items is in progress.

Surat Basin Coal
Under Farm-In Agreements previously entered into with Cockatoo subsidiaries, Cougar had certain rights to earn equity interests in a number of Surat Basin Coal Leases.
Under the current Agreement, Cougar retains the right to investigate and develop certain Surat Basin coal leases held by Cockatoo which may be suitable for underground coal gasification (UCG), and grants to Cockatoo the right to investigate for open cut coal on EPC1118.
The Agreement provides that any coal deposits deeper than 150 metres which Cougar establishes to be suitable for UCG development, and which do not interfere with coal suitable for open cut mining, will be transferred to Cougar. The consideration to be attributed to any such transfer will be limited to the expenditure incurred by Cockatoo and its subsidiaries in delineating the UCG deposit...

 

[motorway]

speculation , leverage
A great unwinding

Liquidation and Panic
Will build a Strong technical position

a strong technical position = a zone of value

3 drives to new low ground

=Supply overcoming Demand

All good things
inevitably will be in Bull Markets
that will exceed the bear phases
both by price and time ( dyor )

as long as the Sun comes up
and life moves on. The whole world has to be long stocks.

A zone of value
= Demand meeting Supply
A balance point obtained in context of where from ( downtrend )

Strong and Weak Hands..

looking for

new high ground
+ that ground able to hold ( rising points of support )
= some absence of offerings ( supply )



motorway

 

[james99]

Well CNX up 22%, CXY up 6%, LNC up 4%, MLM up 11%. I even bought a few.

The sector is, I think, coming back into focus.

 

[motorway]

Found support

mid pattern rally

broadened that support Looks like a reversal pattern

Looks like CXY is at least in someones focus

The congestion holding ground gained , in the recent move off support.

Would classically be defined as BULLISH

But in this particular case ?

I hold

motorway

 

[springhill]

Cougar has moved from Trading Halt to Suspension from Official Quotation. Ive had no experience with this before in my portfolio
What is the difference between the 2 and what are the possible reasons for SOQ?