CXY - Cougar Energy

[motorway]

The stock is gathering a following

Short term trader behavior sets up
patterns of an expanding pattern ( cobweb )

Their own noise feeds back
and causes herding and gaping

Whip sawing..

However , the liquidity generated
acts like a conveyor belt
speeding up time
( transaction & volume, speed )

laggard traders particularly
buy on the bulges
and transfer stock back down.

They help build support
and clear the way for mark up.

We see
Huge ( relative ) Volume activity along the .09 "line"

A Successful Test, here
and it would suggest
Accumulation is in a more aggressive phase still.

Then I would anticipate
a good move


I hold

DYOR

motorway

They help build support
and clear the way for mark up.

We see
Huge ( relative ) Volume activity along the .14 "line"
and we saw ( dotted line ) a "natural" catapult point at .15

A Successful Test, here ( RIGHT HERE )
and it would suggest
Accumulation is in a more aggressive phase still.

Then I would anticipate
a ( continuation of the )good move.


I would not take the top of the

conveyor belt

as a point to measure the "adequacy" or the ( relative ) strength of the reaction...

motorway

 

[alankew]

Motorway are you expecting it to go past the top of your conveyor belt(about 30c)and to meet resisitance near the top at 27c

 

[james99]

It seems that there may be talk of the 400 mw Pakistan proposal being extended to 1000 mw. See link below and extract.

"Late last year, the Mines and Minerals Department approved a proposal, submitted in 2003 by Cougar Energy Limited, for setting up 400-MW units based on Thar coal, using underground gasification technology. Cougar will commence work at Block III of the Thar coalfield after signing a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan's government and will initially generate 400 MW of power. The capacity of the units will be subsequently enhanced to generate 1,000 MW of power."

http://www.electricityforum.com/news/jun08/Tharcoalprojectproceeds.html

 

[motorway]

Motorway are you expecting it to go past the top of your conveyor belt(about 30c)and to meet resisitance near the top at 27c

What I see is a stock in a Bull trend that is in it's infancy

That is why I call it a conveyor belt ( I would call it something else if it was a geriatric bull trend )

The conveyor belt is building support at a higher level
and broadening that support

What did you make of today's action ?

There is no width ( work ) at the top ..
I really see no real resistance up there

Those that bought up there have either sold at lower prices
or will hang on ( they bought to soon )

So no real resistance

Think of the stages of an emerging bull trend

it starts with doubt and discovery ( this is after the smart accumulation )
and then hesitation ( and then well I hope we see )

The high pole so early in the trend is easily
likely to be a precursor of levels soon to be sustained
( eg it is only ahead of itself )

I judge CXY is in a zone of active support ( demand )
But with volume ( hence that would be supply-- context )
subsiding


That is what the test is about
price moved down and what happened today ?
where did price finish ?


( Price moved down to a "line" with volume and activity but volume as been decreasing... "Lines form and build and flow into "diagonals" ( old P&F )

We are at the bottom of a congestion zone however
so could be some back and filling
depending on overhead supply ( further up ) that might emerge

At this stage all I see is an uptrend

DYOR Tomorrow can change everything... But a real base is a real base
Accumulation is Accumulation
an uptrend is an uptrend ( YES a top would look the same but on a reasonable degree what is it a top of --- only the first high ? )

An early spike is not a negative but indigestion

( the first sell signal in a trend is a buy signal ( another P&F saying) in fact sort of a bear trap today )

Obviously
Just How I see it
and why I am holding

No need for charts tonight ,really.
But should be something to see tomorrow

( look at a bar chart look at the volume and today's bar )

LOOK at the chart

and make your own mind up
do not rely on me

Appreciate the discussion .



motorway

 

[Djayness]

Well it would seem that the charters were right, broke into a motorway early this morning and headed up almost 20%.

Ill have to read back on the posts and look at the market depth to see if theres support but to be honest, the sp has been here before and it was not much of a surprise to see it here again.

 

[james99]

See the most recent investor publication - released today. All very positive, and of course Len Walker is to present in USA this month.

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

 

[denis_413]

hey james, the link didn't work? do you mind posting again...? currently holding cougar, linc. cheers.

 

[james99]

hey james, the link didn't work? do you mind posting again...? currently holding cougar, linc. cheers.

Hi Denis, below are two links:

1. The first (14 July) is as to the investor presentation (which has now occurred).

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080714/pdf/31b4kfpf7y4m8n.pdf

2. The second (17 July) , is as to new staff, a Brisbane office and Cxy now, it seems, bieng on its way!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080717/pdf/31b6xxlvs0fn7w.pdf

 

[james99]

Hello: New announcment. 73 mt JORC coal with more potentially with further drilling. Apparently sufficient for 400 mw station.

 

[Djayness]

Hello: New announcment. 73 mt JORC coal with more potentially with further drilling. Apparently sufficient for 400 mw station.

Yeah supposedly it can be locally supplied for 30 years. filler......................................................

 

[ands]

Not much of a reaction despite finally getting some more solid numbers out. This company sounds like QOL, just when they are finally getting a run, a heavy release of cheap shares stops everything. CXY is getting way over diluted with all of these shares.

 

[springhill]

Ok hows this for mixed messages? Yesterdays "article" in the Australian trashs the UCG industry and paints a picture of the QLD govt being dead against it..... now today we have an announcement by Cougar informing us the very same govt has granted them an exploration license to look for coal FOR THE EXPRESS PURPOSES OF UGC! Looks to me like the article really was a load of horsesh!t

 

[Djayness]

Ok hows this for mixed messages? Yesterdays "article" in the Australian trashs the UCG industry and paints a picture of the QLD govt being dead against it..... now today we have an announcement by Cougar informing us the very same govt has granted them an exploration license to look for coal FOR THE EXPRESS PURPOSES OF UGC! Looks to me like the article really was a load of horsesh!t

Well either way the market has not reacted too well to todays announcement. Im not sure if that is due to the market performing poorly today or what? The coal announcement today suggests that the UCG sector indeed has backing though.

Quite mixed, im sure in a few days things will clear up.

 

[Bruza]

Anyone watching this today?

Doesn't look like bot selling.

Can't be still reacting to horsesh!t article?

 

[motorway]

Anyone watching this today?

Doesn't look like bot selling.

Can't be still reacting to horsesh!t article?

DYOR Tomorrow can change everything... But a real base is a real base
Accumulation is Accumulation
an uptrend is an uptrend ( YES a top would look the same but on a reasonable degree what is it a top of --- only the first high ? )

An early spike is not a negative but indigestion

There was no question it was a top

it was a question of a top of what

LOOK at the chart

and make your own mind up
do not rely on me

Appreciate the discussion

There was no discussion

I ended up selling out
2/3 of my holding
Still in profit on the 1/3

will have to now reassess...

motorway

 

[motorway]

Updated chart

The Dotted line was important

is the .09 line important now ?

Still a stock well worth tracking (imo )


motorway

 

[motorway]

The chart is tracking sideways

There were a lot of new shares issued
( indigestion! serious indigestion ! )

The excitement wore off
and subsequently there were those news articles .

Between the excitement phase
and the production phase there often presents
good buying opportunities ( maybe )



News concerning
an overseas project
or another domestic project

Would ( could ) change things again.

etc etc

DYOR
For Discussion

motorway

 

[motorway]

Think of the stages of an emerging bull trend

it starts with doubt and discovery ( this is after the smart accumulation )
and then hesitation ( and then well I hope we see )

After hesitation is ADORATION & MANIA

The "top" represents those stages

What follows is denial and hope-------------------------------------------------------------> Then recognition ( it was .26 and I should have etc )
Then sometimes reprieve ( a bit of bounce supply generates some bargain hunters ) But then on to a final Liquidation ( Question are we there YET ? )

And then ? it starts again

Of course that is an idealized cycle
An old saying is never stand in the way of sentiment...
No matter what ........until the cycle completes

Sentiment is one ingredient
that draws the chart..

What creates sentiment ?

DYOR
motorway

 

[motorway]

Here is finer scaled chart

a .005 X 1

( Keep in mind the analogy of the Coastline of Britain , It gets longer but it is the same Coastline... A point P&F chartists a 100 years ago realized as they expanded and condensed their charts... But always seeing the same dynamics regardless )

Each column is created by the swing of THE pendulum
THE Pendulum of Demand and Supply

The Dynamics of this pendulum
can not be captured by a "time Frame"
hence why a lot of TA is .... ?

The Columns tell us the highest level the bulls could move the
stock before the bears overcame them and the price moved back down.
OK
The columns also tell us the level that the bears could drive the stock down before the bulls overcame them and moved the price back up

Take the midpoint of a column and compare it to the midpoint of the previous adjacent columns .

Do you see a trend ?

A trend of what ?

Lets borrow from one of those
modern "Tape Readers"

eg Fractal Finance

An easy
way to understand this is to consider the equilibrium point in a standard supply/demand
market as a point attractor: any variation around the equilibrium point would
be the market's limit cycle.
An Attractor refers to a region where a systems solution lies

A mid point on a P&F column has been of interest ever since P&F originated

Some more of Fractal Finance

Just look at the columns on the chart
as you read it ( remember they are the swings of the demand and supply pendulum )

You will see that
the position of the pendulum varies for each swing. So the pendulum will never complete
a cycle and never duplicate an orbit. It appears to act randomly and chaotically, but falls
within a certain range and always orbits clockwise. The pendulum is now acting as a
chaotic or fractal attractor

Substitute to the right for clockwise

For Discussion
DYOR

These Fluctulations ( swings ) are not of a fair coin toss

So they reveal something

It Just sounds so like
The concept of coming to a hinge
or "Dead Centre"
not to make use of the comparison

P&F chartists discovered Fractal Finance long ago (IMO )

When they dissolved time frames
and dealt directly with the reality of the TAPE


Quotes taken from Fractal Finance A GUIDE BOOK
Written by Erik Long

motorway

 

[Djayness]

Here is finer scaled chart

a .005 X 1

( Keep in mind the analogy of the Coastline of Britain , It gets longer but it is the same Coastline... A point P&F chartists a 100 years ago realized as they expanded and condensed their charts... But always seeing the same dynamics regardless )

Each column is created by the swing of THE pendulum
THE Pendulum of Demand and Supply

The Dynamics of this pendulum
can not be captured by a "time Frame"
hence why a lot of TA is .... ?

The Columns tell us the highest level the bulls could move the
stock before the bears overcame them and the price moved back down.
OK
The columns also tell us the level that the bears could drive the stock down before the bulls overcame them and moved the price back up

Take the midpoint of a column and compare it to the midpoint of the previous adjacent columns .

Do you see a trend ?

A trend of what ?

Lets borrow from one of those
modern "Tape Readers"

eg Fractal Finance



A mid point on a P&F column has been of interest ever since P&F originated

Some more of Fractal Finance

Just look at the columns on the chart
as you read it ( remember they are the swings of the demand and supply pendulum )



Substitute to the right for clockwise

For Discussion
DYOR

These Fluctulations ( swings ) are not of a fair coin toss

So they reveal something

It Just sounds so like
The concept of coming to a hinge
or "Dead Centre"
not to make use of the comparison

P&F chartists discovered Fractal Finance long ago (IMO )

When they dissolved time frames
and dealt directly with the reality of the TAPE


Quotes taken from Fractal Finance A GUIDE BOOK
Written by Erik Long

motorway

Sorry im not exactly sure what all that means, where do you expect this stock to be going? If I had more money I would probably be putting it in at this stage. It seems to have hit its low and is going back up.