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CVN - Carnarvon Energy

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Well I sold out 400,000 at 78c ages ago but have a big buy in at 46.5c. I think it is a great trading stock but more important to me it has good mid term revenue so appears to be relatively low risk. The team needs to turn production declines around no matter what the reason to see this baby above a dollar. Don't take this post to mean it is without risk because that is not the case.bv
 
WOW Blackrock bought a huge chunk, 34419544 shares. Watch it stat to trend back up to 60+
...............
 
If you go to CVN's website they have listed a NEW broker report which is laughing at how cheap this stock is.

An enjoyable read if you ask me...

I would love to park a cool Million in CVN right now I can see how the rich get richer

CVN is expecting a reserves upgrade in March which the broker predicts will be a catalyst for the share price ... I guess we'll see hey ?

This post is opinion based - dont take anything I say as fact (you can just read the same report i just did hehe
 

old stockmarket addage G: listen to a broker and you will be......if they do know something worthwhile, they certainly won't tell you and me the facts - they look after themselves and their big fish first.
 
Long time holder of Cvn...thought i'd share some thoughts.

- The reserve upgrade will be nice but the current strengths in the AUD and the not so fantastic oil price (what CVN get) won't do much for the share price. They've got oil...great...but look at production rates. In 2008 they were targeting a year end 8,000 net to CVN.

- Really need some high flow rates and positive news to flow through. They have been discovering some nice new plays but the market wants bigger and better to shore up this one.

- I really think the SP will track sideways until some material news comes to light regarding more farm-ins and picking up distressed assets. Have they missed the boat?

- Lots of news to still come out of Thailand for permit awards, Australia and Indonesia. Should be interesting.

- Civil unrest in Thai capital.

JTLP
 
Has ticked down to 50c, would seem like reasonable value with oil back around $80/barrel. Considering getting back in, definitely if it pushes back towards 45c.
 
CVN is still in a trading range, a bit closer to its 50% retracement than of late. Its a bit of a dilemma. Should one buy, sell or hold.

Ain't life interesting.

I'm not one for funnymentals but ole Thankskinsusealot has had a resounding defeat in the courts and his loyal followers are getting their knickers in a knot and may threaten the rule of law.

Also the ole King is heading into the flu season again and may get unwell, always guaranteed to upset business in Thailand.

My gut feeling is it will break up again out of this range, and buying at the bottom of it, with a close stop and selling at 60-64c may be the way to go.

I'll decide at 10 am on Monday morning.

gg
 

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It's hard to see where this low profit result will take it ??

Profit down 60% when compared to the previous year -- the share price has been hit .... so it maybe some time before we see a recovery ??? The March reserves position will be interesting....
 
Broken very strong support today and looks to be headed lower. The decline from June last year looks to be part of a larger correction which will probably pan out in three waves. One to keep an eye on but certainly not for the immediate future.
 
Poor profit numbers will probably push the price down to double half year earnings more like a P/E of 15-18, so perhaps as low as 35c?? The upside of CVN is always greater production, they need further discoveries.
 
If it hits 30's im in. Reserves update in March; exciting projects/drill prospects in 2010/11...ability to increase production if needed. I wouldn't mind too much about the profit drop...they clearly explained why this was the case.

People like big profit numbers but what about drilling success...don't worry about this one
 

Those who ignore Paul do so at their peril.

A convincing pivot point and buyer strength on high volume points to CVN going back up to 63c.

gg
 

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New report out from Hartleys on the Carnarvon site. They lowered the 6 month target to 69c and are also slightly less bullish in the commentary.

(Can't post link due to low post count but it's the second announcement down on their site)

Hold CVN
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
A convincing pivot point and buyer strength on high volume points to CVN going back up to 63c.
Click to expand...
For over 6 months, CVN has been confined inside a 13c horizontal channel. Last week, it fell through the bottom and it remains to be seen whether that was a "false break" or a new Lower Low. Only if it makes a Higher High - iaw, breaks 55c - I'll give it an outside chance of returning to the top.

Just as likely does it seem to me, however, that the lower gaps exert some attraction, causing the current downtrend to continue into the 30's. As the chart demonstrates, MACD Divergence has in the past had only limited success. And volume spikes have also been observed in rallies and when tops met resistance.

 

A very reasonable assessment. Lets see where the big money goes next week. A few instos will be after CVN.

gg
 

Sounds like advice watch out!

I wonder how much of the upgrade hoped for in March is factored in to the current price.

Large volume dip and a break down tells a story of lackluster expectations. With results out so soon, the sp usually enjoys a few moments of gains as punters latch on for a potential ride. This is not the case i see for cvn, im worried that after the results are presented there might be another dump of the stock (barring anything less than spectacular details).

With this in the back of my mind technically i see 30's like pixel was suggesting.

I do not hold, but on watch list.

*is prepared to eat his words*
 
So it's getting to the end of March...are nervous hands selling out for fear of a poor reserves update? Trader's taking their place to pounce on an opportunity? Volume has been pretty low so most likely not.

CVN are starting to get pretty slack on the news front. I'm pretty disappointed they really didn't go after anything when they had the 'war chest' handy...wasn't that the whole plan? Now they just have a couple of dimes in comparison.

So really we are expecting 2 things by the end of March:
- Reserves update
- Drilling update

They'll probably group these together...especially if 1 or the other are cactus. Am seriously wondering what the catalyst could be for CVN to push up? GG you have any thoughts?

Once upon a time this was touted as the next big thing...but with production declines (although explained it's still troubling) and no great oil finds in some time the ole CVN is starting to look like the Thai king
 
Ye olde Carnarvon was up a few ticks today...I still suspect it's people getting in before the reserves update. Be warned folks...could be an almighty thud if the update is cactus!

She has been trending sideways for awhile...something's gotta give right?
 

She needs to move up a few more ticks - say 51c or above - before there is even a glimmer of hope that the recent Higher Low might be followed by a Higher High. Till then I maintain my Short position entered into mid-January.

 
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