CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Garpal Gumnut]

I wouldn't too pessimistic about CVN.

This could be accumulation.

It looks like a flag and this CVN holder wouldn't be surprised to see it run up again.

gg

 

[kenny]

Not sure if this has been posted yet already. Wise Owl has come on board the CVN analysis train with an initial coverage statement.

Appreciate any comments.

Cheers,

Kenny

CVN - Canarvon Petroleum Ltd Issue Date 29/06/2009

Recommendation Spec Buy
First Recommended 29-Jun-2009
Current Price 0.855
Target Price 1.8
Stop Loss 0.39
Earnings
Market Capital $585m
Price Depth Strong

A rebound in oil prices and increasing production out of Thailand have driven a strong re rating in Carnarvon over recent months. Current 2P oil reserves of 16.7m barrels and production levels are factored into the share price, however management are focused on growth. Canarvon is aiming to increase production by up to 45% to between 4800-6000 barrels of oil per day (bpod) during the coming quarter with an active exploration schedule is also planned across its various Thailand projects for the remainder of 2009. Although the stock is lacking value characteristics based on current production, we suspect a further re rating is possible should L33/43 also emerge as a production center. A drilling program of 10-15 wells over the next quarter is targeting to lift its share of field production to 4800-6000bopd. Depending on the oil price, this could yield annual revenues nearing $150m. With the company capitalised at $585m these goals already appear to be factored into the share price. One or two well exploration wells are due to be drilled in 2009, and we suspect that success could drive a further re rating in anticipation of production beyond current targets.


This report was produced by PPS Investments Pty Ltd (ACN 097 446 369), which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Licence no. 246670). PPS Investments Pty Ltd believes that the information and material contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources. However, no representation is made about the accuracy or completeness of this information and it should not be relied upon as a substitute for the exercise of independent judgment. Except to the extent required by law, PPS Investments Pty Ltd does not accept any liability for any loss arising from any use of the material contained in this report.

 

[johannlo]

Yes been holding at the high 60s/low 70s w/ decent volumes, buy side stacking up and stochs turning positive.

Can any good chartists spot the pattern being formed here? (I'm a newbie so with the volatiliy of last few weeks can't recognise any shapes other than maybe larger head and shoulders). I have noticed we have had 3 days in a row of bearish engulfing candles, you'd think that (as stochs indicate) the selloff has be starting to run out of steam in absence of any bad news on the company fundamentals / upcoming results still to be revealed.

I'm unclear about why the above flag forming is bullish or indicates a reversal.

 

[Motogoon]

Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!

If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.

Sure theres been more discoverys but still seems a bit of a stretch to say its gonna just keep on skyrocketing up.

Thats just my opinion tho & i'm often wrong so maybe just keep on buying it up!

Looks like i can stand by my post on this one so far.

I notice its gone all quiet on here now its started going down, even the posts have followed the same pattern as the last rise & pullback. On the way up theres 5-10 posts a day saying "next stop $1-$1.30" etc... pause at the top & they change to "due for a slight pullback before carrying on up on its merry way" then it keeps going down & it all goes quiet.

My prediction is that it still could get hammered down a bit yet, like i said in my last post tho thats just my opinion & i often get it wrong & it may turn out that now is the perfect time to buy before it shoots up!

 

[Aargh!]

Looks like i can stand by my post on this one so far.

I notice its gone all quiet on here now its started going down, even the posts have followed the same pattern as the last rise & pullback. On the way up theres 5-10 posts a day saying "next stop $1-$1.30" etc... pause at the top & they change to "due for a slight pullback before carrying on up on its merry way" then it keeps going down & it all goes quiet.

My prediction is that it still could get hammered down a bit yet, like i said in my last post tho thats just my opinion & i often get it wrong & it may turn out that now is the perfect time to buy before it shoots up!

I was pointed out as a down-ramper when I said I thought it was overcooked and was overpriced for current production when it was at ~85c. I sold then and will re-enter at some stage.

I guess my down ramping on ASF manipulated the entire market for my advantage haha.

 

[UMike]

Well..... Thanks for that.

I got back in at the open yesterday.

This share really has held up well considering the price of Crude/Brent oil has dropped by so much.

 

[JTLP]

Wouldn't say anybody was downramping when it hit high 80's. Of course people wanted the trend to continue so they willed it upwards...but having it come down was a part and parcel of oil dropping, dow dropping and CVN overshooting. It's come down to roughly fair game atm...but trading is still choppy and still seems to be falling on a lot smaller volume.

News is due sometime next week...perhaps a spike on fri/mon in anticipation?

And where is Ted and our warchest for acquistions???

 

[baboon]

Just looking at the two year weekly charts; the 10EMA is flatening, but the 30EMA is still rising, price is above the 30 but just below the 10. My thoughts are that this is the bottom if this week closes above the 10EMA which is around 69-70cents.

Looking at volume on the weekly, the week starting 24th may has 40 million volume ranging from 61c-75c. I think there hasn't been that much weekly volume in that price range since, so suggests lots of support in this range. There is also that huge 43million volume on the week starting 10th may which has a range of 53.5c - 68cents. In my opinion if it gets to the 50s then it would be an awesome buying op. At the moment I dont think we'll get there...

On the 2 year weekly it looks like we might be forming the handle in a big cup and handle pattern starting nov 08. Things might be looking up in a big way if this forms.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Ghetto23]

Starting to look like a flag down. I like this stock, , but not looking good to me on the short term?

 

[Out Too Soon]

There's little wrong with this stock apart from being slightly over bought recently, (guilty ), there's a lot positive about this stock & considering the general uptrend of the market & POO I can't see the sp dropping any further, fairly static for the last week, must be ready to increase again (IMO).
Of cause I'm not biased, I got carried away with the herd recenlty when my favourite stock started to stampede without me . Still holding at a slight paper loss.
Nice to see someone (Garpal) trying to predict an Elliott wave from the 2nd wave instead of the 5th, hows that theory/wave going? is it still following or dont know yet? I like Elliott wave theory, just not enough to learn & apply myself.

 

[Miner]

i was hoping and did not sell at 75 cents. It held up at 69 cents around for few days and seeing market was generally high sold out with a relief. One of the few in my portfolio with green signs now went out

If I deepens further with a smile I will enter. If rises up (which is more probable as SP rises when I sell and reverse ) I know the history repeats itself.

Do not hold CVN any more

 

[Out Too Soon]

It seems we r following a contrarian stock, I'm still holding & unless there's been some non-disclosure then I still don't see why it isn't going up with the market & POO. I have been investing long enough now to know if I panic & sell at a loss now the sp will boom sooo- wait for reason to prevail or bad news to come out

 

[eddyeagle]

Anyone got any thoughts as to why CVN is languishing while the rest of the market and POO is up? Did it just too hard too fast???

 

[Real1ty]

CVN was added to the XJO, thus many fund managers HAD to hold it.

That imo is why it appreciated so rapidly.

Now it is held, the buying pressure has eased and it has consolidated.

That's my take on it.

 

[des]

leaving hopeful optimism aside, i reckon there could certainly be more downside in the short term. on the bright side, the daily chart seems to be tracing a bullish falling wedge pattern that was confirmed a few days ago with another reversal at 69. the way i see it, a break above the return line would see a minimal target of $1.05 whilst a downside break would see a return to 45. this is less likely as cvn has respected the 30wma several times and this is tracing a path which would consolidate the support line on the wedge.

i am a former holder but have none currently. i wouldnt make a decision on this one until it does one or the other myself. comments welcome.

 

[JTLP]

Woweeee!!!

Sorry kıds...I am overseas atm and have not had any tıme to check on thıs bad boy. Seems lıke CVN are makıng quıte a few addıtıons to theır warchest through new permıts etc...plus from my quıck scannıng they wıll not be the Operator's of the permıts (correct ıf wrong please)

CVN may also be droppıng because we are waıtıng on news from other wells no? There has been some delay sınce last tıme.

 

[glendem2]

CVN hsve been on a SELL signal since the beginning of July when the share price broke through support at 77c. I am still waiting for the shares to find a floor BEFORE BUYING. 60c is the next support and if that gives way look for support in the 53-55c region. After that it is all the way back to 44c. CVN seems to like round numbers like 44c, 55c, 66c, 77c and 88c.

A weekly close above 73c will change the direction of the stock. In the meantime, I am waiting for the downturn to play out for another 4-5 weeks and look to BUY at 55c around the end of August/ early part of September

 

[johannlo]

The recent weakness is due to declining production and revenues in recent report.

We need some good news and / or an improvement in the figures.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The recent weakness is due to declining production and revenues in recent report.

We need some good news and / or an improvement in the figures.

By the time the good news comes or figures improve the strong investors will have bought up and you will miss out.

Watch for an increase in volume with a shakeout, then a rise, to profit from this little ripper.

gg

 

[johnnyg]

Wave 2's or B's normally retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.

If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.

Here's how I think it could play out (had to post a weekly chart as with a daily I couldn't look further enough to the right)

Looking at the chart if we get that 3 wave decline looks like we might have a large cup and handle pattern. Very bullish.

Slowly edging closer to my target ~ 0.56 - 0.48 Little weakness still to come in my view. Pattern is showing good symmetry.