CVN - Carnarvon Energy

[Bushrat]

Short term turbulence. In the last few weeks there have been some sizable trades on the buy side go through. These are not fund managers expecting to sell out at 90 cents. I'm looking forward to March next year when the next resource size is confirmed.. should get CVN close to $1.30 if not before then...if the POO remains where it is or improves..
Good to see it held 78c. I'm hoping weekly volume will be >30million and Fridays close >85.5 to maintain the momentum.

 

[Ghetto23]

Is it profit takers after the end of the financial year? Worse than expected announcement? Overpriced stock? Majors buying up?

Will see if there is resistance at 68c.

 

[adds]

Good question Ghetto, I wouldn't mind hearing from someone who's been following this one and has done the fundamentals.

From a technical perspective is that a gap I can see between 0.65 and 0.68? Stochastic has been showing divergence and that combined with eofy and profit takers may be the reason for the drop.... It may have another down day left in it to fill the gap and to oversell the rsi a little more... Just my point of view, would like to hear from others.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Overpriced at current production rate IMO, the hard bit is knowing when to jump back in because 'new discovery' announcements may change the picture significantly. <65c would be a probable buy trigger for me even though I still hold some "sleepers"

 

[Aargh!]

Overpriced at current production rate IMO, the hard bit is knowing when to jump back in because 'new discovery' announcements may change the picture significantly. <65c would be a probable buy trigger for me even though I still hold some "sleepers"

I agree. One of the broker reports from the Carnarvon website recently had a valuation of 70-80c. When new discovery was made they went into blue sky territory $1.20. I would post the reports but having dramas with Acrobat.

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/

 

[glendem2]

Technically CVN broke support decisively at 77c and is heading for the next level around 66-70c. I am looking for another 1-2 days pullback. Stoc (27) and RSI (40) need to fall below 20 and 30 respectively BEFORE I would consider Buying back in.

In 2008, CVN fell from 74c in Jan08 to 44c in Mar08 and then retested the High in May08 at 80c before falling to 23c six months later in Nov08

A 50% retrace of the 66c rise gives a target of 55c, which was support on May11 the day before the new Thai Oil find news release on Tuesday12th May

I'm watching 66c and 55c as next entry levels

 

[johannlo]

I'm with you targeting 65c personally which is the next level of support.

Chart does look like its got a bit more retracing left to my newbie eyes, SMA just crossed bearishly as well and volumes increasing whilst price continues to slide.

If the stoch's look like crossing that will be the signal I'm looking for + the resistance levels mentioned already. They're definitely headed well towards the oversold zone.

 

[baboon]

Volume in the past few down days are around 7million daily. Now I personally think this is a great re-entry opportunity right now. The price is going down into the 16 million volume on the 29th of may. Also on the 12th of may there was 18 million daily volume (68cent high). So the price at the moment is going down into very high volume days. IMO a good time to slowly buy back in the 68-75 range. The weekly 10EMA and 30EMA are trending up too. CVN are still in the cash and still pumping the oil outta the ground.

Good luck.

 

[JTLP]

The last time volume was high was when JP Morgan were involved. If you look at one of the days the Candle went from like 70 cents down to .610 and back again. Whoever was recently buying into CVN was pushing the price well beyond a reasonable value...there is no doubting that.

CVN is a great company with fantastic management and a very bright future...but things may have run up a little too fast too quickly for them. A pullback into the high 60's/70's should be good for the next leg up...it may also allow another insto to take a stake and building a nice position.

I suspect a lot of stop losses getting hit now as well + the Sell report from Bell Potter bringing things back into line.

 

[adds]

Gap has been filled and a 'hammer' candle has formed (this is a bullish reversal candle) and stochastic starting to turn. I've taken a small position with stop in place. Dyor.

 

[johannlo]

Thanks for spotting and sharing the hammer pattern.

Agreed the stochs look good now.

Monitoring closely myself, its more of a dilemma what to sell to fund this one lol

 

[Miner]

Some times it pays to believe on ownself.

For a change it appeared Bell Potter SELL recommendation for CVN posted by me was right

I would have saved some paper loss on selling at the recommendation but I am no brainer .

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I work on the premise that all brokers are wrong and that fundamental analysis is a load of hogwash.

So I am a contrarian in relation to the preceding posts.

I have no funnymentalist reason to account for the fall in price of CVN.

It has had a great run, and on chartist perceptions was due for a retracement.

It has retraced exactly 38.2% from its recent low to high on Fibonnaci lines.

My guess, and it is a guess , is that this is a wave 2 of an elliott 5 wave.

So my stop loss is at 65c.

I note that even though it has fallen considerably that on each days trade the buyers come in and push the close beyond the midpoint of the daily bar.

So , funnymentalists, for wahatever reason those in the know let you know, make up your own minds. Sell to a chartist, its good use of money.

As a chartist, unless this moves below 65c its still in play

gg

 

[johnnyg]

Wave 2's or B's normally retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.

If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.

Here's how I think it could play out (had to post a weekly chart as with a daily I couldn't look further enough to the right)

Looking at the chart if we get that 3 wave decline looks like we might have a large cup and handle pattern. Very bullish.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Wave 2's or B's normally retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.

If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.

Here's how I think it could play out (had to post a weekly chart as with a daily I couldn't look further enough to the right)

Looking at the chart if we get that 3 wave decline looks like we might have a large cup and handle pattern. Very bullish.

I respect your analysis but just thought it uncanny the retracement of 38.2

I'd still sell if it pokes blow 65 and catch it on the way back up.

My bet is that it will take off again.

gg

 

[Miner]

Dear GG and Johnny

Which planets are you from ?

My Good ness such a wealth of knowledge.

Half of it though not understood by me (not being a chartist) but at least inferring between your hi tech words and graphs that both of you are in due respect very knowledgable persons and basically you are saying the CVN price will come down at 65 cents and then rise again.

And again hats off to you guys for the great posting and it is a serious appreciation.

I am still holding CVN as reading its reports I believe CVN has the potential and strength to rise up with one more discovery which is not driven by any mathematics correlation and pure engineering. CVN is (IMO) not a fly by night operator so I am looking into company's strength in this matter.

Please do correct (educate) me if my readings are wrong.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Dear GG and Johnny

Which planets are you from ?

My Good ness such a wealth of knowledge.

Half of it though not understood by me (not being a chartist) but at least inferring between your hi tech words and graphs that both of you are in due respect very knowledgable persons and basically you are saying the CVN price will come down at 65 cents and then rise again.

And again hats off to you guys for the great posting and it is a serious appreciation.

I am still holding CVN as reading its reports I believe CVN has the potential and strength to rise up with one more discovery which is not driven by any mathematics correlation and pure engineering. CVN is (IMO) not a fly by night operator so I am looking into company's strength in this matter.

Please do correct (educate) me if my readings are wrong.

Thanks Miner.

Sometimes us chartists feel like the one eyed man in the land of the blind.

We can see on the charts the big guys selling out when the brokers are conning the little guys in to buying.

Never ever trust a broker.

I'd still sell cvn though if it goes below 65c.

And in spite of my rhetoric I do read your funnymentalist analysis!! Much appreciated.

gg

 

[johnnyg]

You are saying the CVN price will come down at 65 cents and then rise again.

Please do correct (educate) me if my readings are wrong.

As above thanks for the kind words Miner, however I wouldn't call myself extremely knowledgeable. Just a beginner with plenty to learn.

No one knows exactly what the price will do, we can only give ourselves the best opportunity to take part if your analysis is proven correct, all the while minimizing your risk as much as possible.

Cheers John.

 

[adds]

As per my previous post so far it looks as though the reversal could be playing out. Not to bad on a red day when the overall market is down 1%+.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Good support at ~70c, will be interesting to see if the reversal holds up or if 65c gets tested.