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All this talk of YT got me thinking. Has YT ever made a bad pick? Any come to mind to some of the older members?
I'm off for a few hours,
did anyone else realise that the VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PIRCE for today was 6.4c!
Considering that 6.4c was the breakout/resistance point, doesn't this strengthen the breakout?
Technicians what do you think?
I'm back so much for a few hours,
I'm surprised nobody has anythoughts on VWAP being 6.4c, is it just me? Wasn't 6.4c the huge breakout level?
Also interested for follow up comments re this Elliot wave thing, I'm a novice when it comes to that stuff
One last thing, did anyone else realise that the VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PIRCE for today was 6.4c!
Considering that 6.4c was the breakout/resistance point, doesn't this strengthen the breakout?
Technicians what do you think?
An excellent suggestion jtb.
YT, I can't add anything to the F/A thats been posted but I would like to elaborate on my suggestion, on the "potential breakout" thread, that we could be entering a period with considerable SP growth. The following is EW based (having just finnished Nick Radges book).I feel CUL has kicked off a wave 3 and, if the wave count is correct, would see the SP, at minimum, climb above 0.08. Not a great number. It is based on the rise of wave 1, which has to be greater in wave 3 for the count to be valid. What the maximum could be I have know idea. But I have taken action today on the assumption that it will be much higher than 0.08.
Those who are more experienced with EW are encouraged to correct the above analysis.
From their last qtrly BHP was due to drill 7 diamond holes at the Gunbarrel JV in May, I would expect an announcement of this to come out soon, the mkt will surely love the link
Also per the announcment dated 16th May API were well on their way in completing the Pre-Feasibility Study on the whole West Pilbara project that they began in the Jan-March Qtr, I'd expect results from that soon,
Given that thw whole operation will support the Cap Ex etc I think its safe to say the CUL will be looking at costs of $20/t vs a price of $70/t so margins of $50t
On the intial 11.3Mt Fe (30% of 68Mt@55.4%Fe) Net to Cullen = $565m = $1.18c This is not a valuation, rather it shows how much value these Iron Ore projects can generate for companies,
Makes you understand how companies like MMX and FMG have had such amazing runs
I think EW, or any TA, is more reliable in stocks that have a lot of consistent volume and do not have numerous significant events which disrupt a 'flow'. So, TA applied to junior exploration companies that are irregularly traded and spike on announcements is less reliable, making future predictions of S&R, and fib contraction/extention, and EW more difficult and less probable. Having said that, I've seen basic TA (S&R) work very well with just about all stocks. So, at this point it's a judgement call on the value of TA here. Any disagreement? I'm making this all up off the top of my head. I have no references for this black magic, hocus pocus.I am by no means an expert on EWA either, but I thought you could only apply such techniques to a regularly traded stock ?
CUL with it's recent breakout surely can't be classified to be in a regularly traded pattern?
I think EW, or any TA, is more reliable in stocks that have a lot of consistent volume and do not have numerous significant events which disrupt a 'flow'. So, TA applied to junior exploration companies that are irregularly traded and spike on announcements is less reliable, making future predictions of S&R, and fib contraction/extention, and EW more difficult and less probable. Having said that, I've seen basic TA (S&R) work very well with just about all stocks. So, at this point it's a judgement call on the value of TA here. Any disagreement? I'm making this all up off the top of my head. I have no references for this black magic, hocus pocus.
Nah I tend to agree.
But funnily enough, Yogi has picked quite a few winners & picked them on the right dates with his astrology - that stuff just absolutely trips me out.
Makes me wonder if you can just randomally pick a stock and sit on it for a random period of time, and expect a rise - I would love to come back and look at Yogi's picks in 5 (or whenever it stops) years time when we aren't in such a bull market for mining stocks.
One big negative is that the top 20 only hold 20% of the stock so hence the crazy levels of liquidity we saw today something to remember
Have attached my count, but I'm by no means a expert in EW and I'm not sure how "reliable" a EW count will be on a stock like this either, but could be a good guide.
I am by no means an expert on EWA either, but I thought you could only apply such techniques to a regularly traded stock ?
CUL with it's recent breakout surely can't be classified to be in a regularly traded pattern?
I think EW, or any TA, is more reliable in stocks that have a lot of consistent volume and do not have numerous significant events which disrupt a 'flow'. So, TA applied to junior exploration companies that are irregularly traded and spike on announcements is less reliable, making future predictions of S&R, and fib contraction/extention, and EW more difficult and less probable. Having said that, I've seen basic TA (S&R) work very well with just about all stocks. So, at this point it's a judgement call on the value of TA here. Any disagreement? I'm making this all up off the top of my head. I have no references for this black magic, hocus pocus.
I dont believe in Yogi's methods. He posts on so many stocks and if you post on a large number of stocks with your methods your bound to get something right from time to time. The amount of things he has got wrong well outweighs what he has got right. Fundamental approach IMO will give you the best success rate. TA traders will disagree but they also jump from stock to stock and yes your bound to get some break outs continuing and some falling back and when they do fall back thats when they bail. For example look at AIM. How many traders would we have had jumping out of their skins to get out of that one. Fundamentally the chances of AIM rising in the future are very strong though. I think CUL have all the right fundamentals to be re-rated.
Today's volume was ridiculous, the more I think about it the more it gets me
95m
Lets say us on ASF accounted for what 20m at most?
That leaves 75m unexplained,
So I lookd at top 20 again and realised that its from 31st Jan 2007 "The names of the twenty holders of the fully paid shares 31 January 2007 are listed below:"
Since then it could have changed, ie some majors could have moved in, I think we need to see a current top 20, there's no way this could have styed under the radar for so long, especially after they released the JORC, the riskiness of CUL was substantially removed once the JORC came out as it creates a situation where production is on the horizon NPV's etc and so on
Also recently they did a placement at 4.3c to sophisticated Investors of Montague, Bell Potter, Wilson HTM and Argonaught Securities, surely these brokers have CUL on their radars,
My guess is that after the JORC came out on the 16th of May, someone or some parties started accumulating to get onto the top 20 register, an Insto maybe? Who wanted to accumulate a certain position and after nearly 2 months of accumulation realised that the stock was going to pop today and just paid up to finish their accumulation?
I can't think of any other way to explain the volumes, I mean they're monstrous! It can't just be us and traders and punters, there has to be something more significant behind it, thoughts?
An updated top 20 as of say July 1st would help, I will ring and ask the company tomorrow
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