CUL - Cullen Resources

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Great analysis once again, thanks YT. I've bought in and out of this one for years. Its been a great survivor. Interesting to see so many free-carried JVs. Of particular IMO are the iron ore and nickel interests. The nickel JV with HNR is near WSA's Flying Fox deposit.
With all the free carried interests, CUL has sufficient cash for the moment.
I'm watching this one closely with interest. It definitely had a great run today on an otherwise bad day for the market.
DYOR

Hey Greggy, but something has changed for CUL in the last few months which means it should be re-rated,

Its no longer a spec play with Iron Ore Nickel Uranium and a bunch of High porfile JV's

Its now a near term Iron Ore producer with Iron Ore Nickel Uranium and a bunch of High porfile JV's,

Its the Iron Ore deposit that underwrites its SP, what do people think of my valuation?

15c for the Catho Well, up to 25c if you add in everything else

 

[prawn_86]

what are the odds of it retracing before the end of the week?

im not a chartist but as has been mentioned there is a gap, can this be classed as a breakaway? i wouldnt know.

just wondering if i should try to lock in some profits tomorrow.

 

[greggy]

Hey Greggy, but something has changed for CUL in the last few months which means it should be re-rated,

Its no longer a spec play with Iron Ore Nickel Uranium and a bunch of High porfile JV's

Its now a near term Iron Ore producer with Iron Ore Nickel Uranium and a bunch of High porfile JV's,

Its the Iron Ore deposit that underwrites its SP, what do people think of my valuation?

15c for the Catho Well, up to 25c if you add in everything else

With iron ore runnig hot at present, CUL may well be further re-rated by the market as its now a near term iron ore producer. If everything goes to plan, your figures may even be too conservative. Once again good pick up.
DYOR

 

[Sean K]

what are the odds of it retracing before the end of the week?

im not a chartist but as has been mentioned there is a gap, can this be classed as a breakaway? i wouldnt know.

just wondering if i should try to lock in some profits tomorrow.

Golly, I hope that's a breakaway gap. It's a long way back from where it is now to fill. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Like YT, I think something's cooking here. That volume was not ASF's response to YT's tip, although I'm sure some of it was!

Will certainly be issued a speeding ticket tonight, and I'd expect a 'we know nuthingk!' response which will probably cause some selling pressure. This is not always the case however. Another thing that occasionally happens the day after something like this is a gap up on the open and then traders taking profits and it'll finish down. Or, it could go to $1.00. Am I on enough fences? LOL.

My tip is consolidation for a little while above 6.4 cents, which hopefully becomes support.

But, I thought FWL would consolidate at 30 too.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

what are the odds of it retracing before the end of the week?

im not a chartist but as has been mentioned there is a gap, can this be classed as a breakaway? i wouldnt know.

just wondering if i should try to lock in some profits tomorrow.

I think 6.4c was huge in terms of resistance, so I'm going to try and buy another mil there (order is up),


The Feasibility Study for all of AQA's Iron Ore projects is underway and should be out in th next few weeks, this should take CUL to 10c+ minimum imo

Then theres the BHP JV drilling and FMG Iron Ore Surveys etc just 1 an from this could ignite the SP

Weigh all these factors up and decide

 

[prawn_86]

lol thanks kennas,

gotta love reading the tea leaves in charts

could go up, down or sideways is what i think your saying. thats also my opinion lol.

but seriously though hopefully a 6.4c support minimum will give it a nice chance to jump on the next ann

 

[Fool]

Valuation
RHI 40m shares @ $2.50 = $100m, its asset 20% of 135Mt@58.5%Fe = Net 15.795Mt Fe, at $100m = EV of $6.33/ Fe t

So if we give CUL the same $6.33/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $71.5m = 15c CUL

YT: just wondering why you used 20% of 135Mt @ 58.5% Fe = Net 15.795 Fe ?

http://www.cullenresources.com.au/pdf/2007/070516_Cullen_Release.pdf

I had to read the above announcement 13 times to understand the broken english but it does state rather ambiguously that:

"Cullen's attributable share of the Catho Well deposit is 20.4Mt @ 55.38% Fe"

Going to grab some dinner, will keep reading when I get back.

 

[jtb]

Good day for sleeping today (shift change), yeah Kenna's that straight down the line mate
Been watching for a little while and couldn't get any GLX today so picked up a hundredk in the closing auction, happy to see it move either way atm.

By the time I started looking to see if the environmental drama's concerning micro spiders were a problem @ FWL's BIF turf they'd tripled

YT you really should think about an SMS alert service mate.

onwards and upwards

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT: just wondering why you used 20% of 135Mt @ 58.5% Fe = Net 15.795 Fe ?

http://www.cullenresources.com.au/pdf/2007/070516_Cullen_Release.pdf

I had to read the above announcement 13 times to understand the broken english but it does state rather ambiguously that:

"Cullen's attributable share of the Catho Well deposit is 20.4Mt @ 55.38% Fe"

Going to grab some dinner, will keep reading when I get back.

Mate yor confused, re-read my post I said
RHI 40m shares @ $2.50 = $100m, its asset 20% of 135Mt@58.5%Fe = Net 15.795Mt Fe, at $100m = EV of $6.33/ Fe t


I used this to get an EV per tonne Iron Ore to then apply to CUL

So if we give CUL the same $6.33/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $71.5m = 15c CUL

 

[alankew]

YT take my hat off to you again.What i particularly like is the incredible spread of resources that they are looking for,add to that the fact that so much is free carried and they also have U in the NT,one of which is in the Tanami region same region as NTU i think-amazing.Incredible volume but as Joules posted earlier most of it is from people in the know so hopefully we should have an ann coming.Thanks again YT

 

[mick2006]

well YT you never cease to amaze, you have managed to find a stock covering the 3 commoditites with the best supply/demand outlook, being Iron Ore, Uranium and Nickel, these 3 commoditities are considered to have the best pricing power all the way out till the turn of the decade.

Best thing though is that the Catho Well iron ore project will be certainly in production before the end of 2009, forcing a large re-rating of the stock.

As a keen follower of your research, in my opinion this has the potential to be your best pick yet!!! (I know that's a very big call)

Hopefully it doesn't run too hard tomorrow as I still want to add a couple of million more.

Once again thanks YT

 

[doctorj]

I was going to say something, but I think this picture says it all. As always guys, lets stay calm and objective.

Thanks for another informative post YT.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

As a keen follower of your research, in my opinion this has the potential to be your best pick yet!!! (I know that's a very big call)

That is a big call lol, fundamentally though it still offers another 100% from current levels but needs to consolidate imo

Hopefully it doesn't run too hard tomorrow as I still want to add a couple of million more.

Once again thanks YT

It may, but I hope it consoldiates a little around 6.4c (lol so I get filled lol) but also because it would be good for it to confirm new support before moving up more

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I was going to say something, but I think this picture says it all. As always guys, lets stay calm and objective.

Thanks for another informative post YT.

lol at the pic Doc J,


I should add that all my research is from company ann's and the web page to be found here

http://www.cullenresources.com.au/

One big negative is that the top 20 only hold 20% of the stock so hence the crazy levels of liquidity we saw today something to remember

 

[alankew]

Was just about to ask about the top20,where did you find this info YT as i couldnt see it on there anns on Comsec or the company website.Also couldnt get a price off comsec for options but company report says there are some-would these be held by the directors or are they under some other code

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Options are 25m with various exercise prices 4c-8c, didn't bother including this in analysis

As for Top 20 http://www.cullenresources.com.au/corporate.php

Here are some pics

 

[jammin]

YT you really should think about an SMS alert service mate.

An excellent suggestion jtb.

YT, I can't add anything to the F/A thats been posted but I would like to elaborate on my suggestion, on the "potential breakout" thread, that we could be entering a period with considerable SP growth. The following is EW based (having just finnished Nick Radges book).I feel CUL has kicked off a wave 3 and, if the wave count is correct, would see the SP, at minimum, climb above 0.08. Not a great number. It is based on the rise of wave 1, which has to be greater in wave 3 for the count to be valid. What the maximum could be I have know idea. But I have taken action today on the assumption that it will be much higher than 0.08.
Those who are more experienced with EW are encouraged to correct the above analysis.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm off for a few hours,

Fool has correctly pointed out that as RHI has other interets it may be too bullish to attribute all the EV to its Iron Ore,

I think the mkt avg though is $5/t Fe

@ $5/t Fe = $56.5m = 12c CUL

However I am lmost certain that part of RHI's Cardo Bore falls/extends into CUL's Cardo Bore tennements,

I think there is excellent upside to substantially increase this JORC from the other CUL/API JV tenements

One last thing, did anyone else realise that the VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PIRCE for today was 6.4c!

Considering that 6.4c was the breakout/resistance point, doesn't this strengthen the breakout?

Technicians what do you think?

 

[kransky]

Its amazing how there was no reaction to the announcement of the JORC estimates on the 16th... but then today out of nowhere it goes nuts.

I really should spend more time just reading all the interesting announcements each day... (wishes there was more hours in the day)

big resources, free carried, low market cap... looks like a good one

not holding...

 

[YELNATS]

As a keen follower of your research, in my opinion this has the potential to be your best pick yet!!! (I know that's a very big call)

I'm not saying it's not possible for CUL, but that would be a very big call. Let's not forget the inspirational MTN, first identified by YT in March 2006. In exactly 12 months it's gone from 50c to $6.50 today!