CUL - Cullen Resources

[alankew]

Well this might be a bit more exciting then.Now in a trading halt along with RHI.AQA and RHI went into halt at same time and CUL just after.Speculation elsewhere that it could be a resource upgrade on a similair lines of BRM or even some sort of corporate activity-this taken from ann yesterday by AQA

It has come to the attention of Aquila Resources (the “Company”), that there has been
some media speculation in today’s Financial Review, following the request by WA
Resources Pty Ltd a subsidiary of AMCI, for a copy of the Company’s share register recently asked for a share registry

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Alan,

AQA and CUL are in trading halts for the long awaited JORC upgrades at Mt Stuart JV,

I still got a few of these bad boys so am hoping for at least 30% minimum JORC increase

 

[JJKools]

Hi YT,

I enjoyed reading your analysis on CUL back in June/July last year whereby you rated Cul at around the 15-25c mark. Given much has happened since then, i'd be interested to see your views on where Cul could possibly head?

We saw when AQA pumped cash into HLX their SP hit about 50c. With CUL's current projects that cover iron ore, gold, nickel and uranium, plus a healthy cash balance could we put a new "potential" value on CUL?

Cheers and all the best

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey JJKools

Well I just ran the ruler over over CUL again,

They're current JORC is 68Mts'@55.4% they have a 30% interest in the project,

Now most Fe plays trade at an EV of $10/t, given CUL's project is part of a bigger picture and not stand alone so I'm very comfortable using $10/t Fe as an EV

CUL now have 555m shares on issue

current JORC is 68Mts'@55.4% = 37.5Mt's @ $10/t = $375m = net $115m= 20c NET VALUE TO CUL

I expect the new JORC ot be at least say 85M't (based on the drilling pic showing current resource strike of 6.7km's and 1.8kms more ot be added to the JORC)

possible upgraded JORC is 85Mts'@55.4% = 47Mt's @ $10/t = $470m = net $140m= 25.5c NET VALUE TO CUL


So based on the current JORC CUL should be (based on EV comparisons) at 20c

 

[JJKools]

Cheers YT, thats great. Interesting times ahead, many people are talking about a possible takeover of CUL, but i don't think so, yet anyway....

All the best

 

[eddie lives]

I agree YT, and JJ - if AMCI makes a play for AQA as rumoured they would have a greater than 20% combined holding in CUL, so i'd imagine they'd give us 1 AQA for 50 CULs based on the above iron ore valuation

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi eddie (glad to see your alive)

Re CUL and a takeover from AMCI I doubt it, see what I think (as do a few others) is that AMCI want AQA and to ensure they play ball they have bought into all of AQA's JV partners in the Pilbara Fe venture, ie CUL RHI and HLX,

So I really think AMCI purchasing CUL was more strategic and aimed at putting AQA in a tough spot, but thats just my thoughts,

Either way as I have shown on the current JORC alone CUL should be 20c and depending on how big the upgrade is more

Now we wait

 

[scuffler]

been holding a bundle of these for months.
Hoping that we have hit pay dirt.

A much better play than FDL imo...lol
PLus you have the added bonus of the gold projects.....right results as gold is going to double its value over the next 2 years.

cheers guys i look forward to monday morning.

cheers,

 

[jtb]

Hi eddie (glad to see your alive)

Re CUL and a takeover from AMCI I doubt it, see what I think (as do a few others) is that AMCI want AQA and to ensure they play ball they have bought into all of AQA's JV partners in the Pilbara Fe venture, ie CUL RHI and HLX,

So I really think AMCI purchasing CUL was more strategic and aimed at putting AQA in a tough spot, but thats just my thoughts,

Either way as I have shown on the current JORC alone CUL should be 20c and depending on how big the upgrade is more

Now we wait

Pretty good guess there bro' (85 MT

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080307/pdf/00820673.pdf

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

awwwww just short of what I was expecting, but still

79.5Mt's@55.34% Fe = 44Mt's Fe @ $10/t = $440m = net $132m = 23.5c-24c

I can see why AQA bought into CUL at these levels

 

[scuffler]

Just wasnt big enough upgrade to get this one moving.
I held for ages and have now ditched the lot.
I no longer have any patience left for this one. I made a mint and now I need the cash to shore up the rest of my portfolio,lol.

If u stay long good luck for the future.
Shame it wasnt a bigger upgrade..damn.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Today is a bad bad day, so everything is struggling in these markets, to me CUL is trading at about half what it should based on EV, now given between them AQA and AMCI can buy another 110m sahres before each hits the 19.9% limit (ie AQA can buy another 27m AMCI another 85m) and they have been buying at 11.5c-12.5c I expect support at these levels into the future, so for me downside is limited

 

[Mcgoo]

There should also be news out soon about the Thundelarra's Tempest survey of Cullen's uranium ground - it was meant to be reported over 6 months ago (bit suspect). Add in a decent report from FMG or BHP etc and you never know...

 

[eddie lives]

alive and fighting along with CUL on another shocking day on the market YT!

and with AMCI and AQA buying between 10 and 14.5c i don't see much downside at all, just don't see the multi-bagger that i think all the short termers wanted (and myself )

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

awwwww just short of what I was expecting, but still

79.5Mt's@55.34% Fe = 44Mt's Fe @ $10/t = $440m = net $132m = 23.5c-24c

I can see why AQA bought into CUL at these levels

lol, I can't believe this one went backwards today, att 11.5c-12c CUL is trading on an EV per t Fe of $5, half the industry avg

I reckon either AQA or AMCI were snapping up the bargain today, we'll know next week

 

[scuffler]

"just don't see the multi-bagger that i think all the short termers wanted (and myself )"

You said it my frd.

Iron ore does seem to be lower on peoples minds imo. SDL,GBG have come down alot.

The money was made when CUL was 5 cents and under!

I spoke to Chris Ringrose and he had a very negative tone.
I said how many i owned and he thought i was nuts......
I was left a little puzzled by this i have to say.
Still i made my cash long ago....for me its time to move on and leave AQA to mop up the loose shares...and in this market i suspect they will take the rest for a bargain.

laters.

 

[moxy]

Hi Scuffler
Can you elaborate on your conversation with Ringrose...what was he negetive about in particular. I'm very nervous about holding this stock and feel very unsure about the possibilities for further upside. If anyone thinks CUL is still a good investment please feel free to elaborate on your knowledge of their tenements.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

If anyone thinks CUL is still a good investment please feel free to elaborate on your knowledge of their tenements.

Hi Moxy, obviously my post above means nothing??????

And Scuffler thats very interesting, how can the MD be negative of his own company? Very sad indeed, the point is AMCI and AQA see the value at these levels,

Maybe Chris should resign and let some AQA/AMCI guys onto the board

 

[eddie lives]

I believe JJKools spoke with Ringrose and i have never heard of him being negative
perhaps he can elaborate?

if anything i would have thought Ringrose is conservative and slow in releasing information to the market

also, scuffler - AMCI and AQA have large holdings bought at the current prices so you are as nuts as they are

 

[moxy]

Young Trader

Your analysis got me into this stock!! The numbers certainly show this is undervalued. I was planning on holding this short term and now I'm locked in for longer, hence I'm fishing for fundamentals on their tenements.

It was comedy capers on Friday when I attempted to "research" their tenement maps myself. Frustrated by that and desperate I did the unthinkable, I called Cullen and tried to get information straight from the horses mouth. Ringrose was apparently in a meeting...so schuffer was lucky. I think there may have been many like myself making calls on Friday. A hotcopperite has suggested that all the drilling was mainly on RHI side (hence their good sp rises) of the Cartho well, ours is yet to be drilled.

Suppose the bottom line is what you said YT, AQA and AMII are keen buyers....and one of the "lottery" JV'S turns up a nice surprise.