CUL - Cullen Resources

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Both RHI and AQA have been on a steady increase for the past 3-6 months.

RHI yesterday reached their alltime high which was on the 20th of March 07, with 364K volume on that day. RHI yesterday peaked at $2.80 on low volume. Good sign!!

AQA has been steadily increasing since Dec 06 and reached a 6 month high yesterday of $6.55 after opening on Friday at $6. (up $1.50 in the past month) Another good sign!!

I know, I could be reading too much into the RHI/AQA rise, but my thinking is that as AQA has been working on the PFS for its West Pilbara Iron Ore project and this is somewhat of a focus for them, then the AQA rise maybe linked to positive info leaking, which maybe confirmed by the corresponding rise in RHI since both are tightly held,

I know that there's a few maybes in there but hey just throwing it out there,

For those who are curious my play with CUL will be to wait for the PFS, then see what the mkt does, I'm hoping that the PFS combined with some updates from BHP/FMG JV's will continue the re-rating and get the stock towards the 15c-20c level I think its worth, at this point I will lock in some profits and look to free carrying as much as I can,

These free carries will then be put away in a bottom draw until production by AQA/CUL/RHI


Looks to still be consolidating above 6.4c, looks like we're at a new level!

 

[Gurgler]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and research, YT. I hope your optimistic evaluation bears fruit.

Ended on its high for the day so this augurs well for upward movement tomorrow.

 

[Pat]

Hey guy's, I got in today on the slight weakness, and happy to hold till the ann. Todays candle is a dragonfly doji indicates the sellers couldn't overcome the buyers. The trade at 7 cents on close was only 8k... I'm not counting on a push forward just yet.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I just did a re-comparison to RHI as it has been rising of late

Valuation
RHI 40m shares @ $2.75 = $110m, its asset 20% of 135Mt@58.5%Fe = Net 15.795Mt Fe, at $110m = EV of $6.88/ Fe t

So if we give CUL the same $6.88/ Fe t = 30% 68Mt@55.4%Fe = 11.3Mt's Fe = $77.75m = 16c CUL


At 7c CUL mkt cap = $33m and is thus trading on an EV/t Fe of $3

This is half that of RHI

Unless I'm missing something CUL appears comparatively cheap

That being said I am interested in chartists and techies views on the stock,

How does the chart look? It looks very weird to me, but then I ain't the greatest with charts

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I forgot to add, I called the company and spoke to one of the directors regarding their projects and the valuation discrepenacies btween CUL and RHI

He (the director) fully agreed that the company was undervalued (but then don't tehy all say this? lol)

He also agreed with me about the comparison to RHI but conceeded that RHI have a closer tie to AQA because AQA took a placement in RHI, I quizzed whether AQA were looking at taking a stake in CUL and he said nothing like that had ever been discussed, however he stressed that CUL's deposit was essential for blending with the other Ore's

We also spoke about the company and being under the radar etc, he said that he had been speaking to several brokers and that a valuation/research report was being done and he expects it to be completed and available shortly, although he could not give an idication if it would contain a specifc figue (ie Spec Buy 8c)

Also one final thing is that AQA/API have been constantly drilling and will be releasing more drill results and upgrading the JORCs in due course.

If your curious about anything I urge you to call the company and chat to the exploration director, he was very nice and approachable



One final thing re the grade which I didn't understand, the LOI or Loss on Ignition is the % of material that burns/evaporates easily when the Ore is blasted. Basically the higher the LOI the better as if you had Ore with 55%Fe 10% LOI once you blast it (Calcined) it would be 62% Fe+

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT, maybe I'm not understanding, but in CUL's announcement of the initial resource estimate for Catho, the following is indicated:

Aquila reports that the five CIDs collectively comprise 203Mt @ 57.44 Fe.
Catho is therefore 33.4% of the CID resources estimated to date.
Cullen's attributable share of the Catho Well deposit is 20.4 Mt @ 55.38% Fe.

At $6.88/ Fe t - 20.4 Mt's Fe = $140m = 30c CUL ???

Catho Well deposit is 20.4 Mt @ 55.38% Fe.

20.4@55.38%Fe= 11.3Mt's Fe

11.3Mt's Fe @ $6.88/t Fe = $77.75m

 

[ALFguy]

I deleted my post because I forgot to take into account the 55.4%.....

Was really hoping you wouldn't reply!!!

Doh!

..... I blame your avatar!

 

[nizar]

If your curious about anything I urge you to call the company and chat to the exploration director, he was very nice and approachable

LOL maybe for you because you are top20 with your millions!

And the avatar -- get rid of it. Please

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

LOL maybe for you because you are top20 with your millions!

And the avatar -- get rid of it. Please

Avatar stays, lol, he's names crazy Kent Bruce and he's gone completely mad!

LOL

On a serious note Niz, your techie view?

 

[Sean K]

Sam, As I guestimated earlier this is simply consolidation that should occur after a bolt. The chart is looking OK at the moment with consolidation above support around 6.4 cents. Tails on the candles with falling volume positive. If this is a true pennant (think back to FWL chart comments) then the target is the length of the pole on the break up. Just a probability of course. MACD and stochs look bearish at the moment, but this would be expected due to the sudden jump and consoidation. First twist in the Stochastic might be an early sign of a reversal, although this may respond significantly to ann, which will not give time for the lagging indicators to give a sign. Increased volume on consolidation or slight up tick may be the first indication of an ann, of course. A white candle or hammer would be nice today to confirm potential reversal. Dropping through 6.4 untidy.

(holding)

 

[disarray]

where did the posts by Joules MM1 disappear to? they were extremely enlightening and tie in nicely with volume analysis as demonstrated in this nick radge article

http://www.thechartist.com.au/images/stories/The Hidden Strengths of Volume Analysis.pdf

i was drawing lines all over my price / volume chart after reading the joules post.

 

[RM8]

where did the posts by Joules MM1 disappear to? they were extremely enlightening and tie in nicely with volume analysis as demonstrated in this nick radge article

They probably risked frightening too many people away with the explanation of how big players manipulate the market.

Woke me up to the fact that no matter how much research you do both technical or fundamental if the big boys want to control the price they most likely can and will. We piddly little investors/traders are literally only along for the ride.

Now all I have to do is find away of determining which ones they are playing with so I can stay away from them.

 

[Joe Blow]

where did the posts by Joules MM1 disappear to?

Disarray - Last night Joules asked me to remove some of his posts in this thread, so I complied with his wishes.

 

[disarray]

ok thanks for the explanation joe

and joules, i'm sorry you felt you had to remove the posts. i tried to click back to copy / paste but they were gone for good. thats a shame because it explained very well how that certain section of the market plays the game. at least i got to suck up that knowledge before it got taken away :

Now all I have to do is find away of determining which ones they are playing with so I can stay away from them.

actually with the right information and volume analysis you want to be following these people as they are the ones with the $$$ to make the market move. like hunting animals and tracking their spoor you are looking for the droppings of big money all over the volume chart

the most interesting part of his post was the time frame - they work over weeks and months, gradually drip feeding supply after accumulating before the first breakout which is an extremely useful piece of information. when i'm gazing at a chart i now have another piece of the puzzle to slot in.

everyone knows the market is manipulated by big money, the same way society, government, justice and everything else is manipulated by powerful vested interests. to think otherwise is nieve. it is an important part of trading psychology to recognise this fact and add it to your understanding of the markets (in my humble opinion of course).

 

[RM8]

ok thanks for the explanation joe




actually with the right information and volume analysis you want to be following these people as they are the ones with the $$$ to make the market move. like hunting animals and tracking their spoor you are looking for the droppings of big money all over the volume chart

Yes, of course your right disarray.

Would I be right to say that the longer the time frame you anticipate holding the less chance of being caught out in the fluctuations caused by these guys?

 

[juw177]

^^^ Hi, I am interested in reading more about this information as well. Can you recommend any links regarding the topic of volume analysis and the big players?

 

[nomore4s]

^^^ Hi, I am interested in reading more about this information as well. Can you recommend any links regarding the topic of volume analysis and the big players?

Refer Nick Radges article as posted above by disarray.
There is also some discussion on this thread about it.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=176827#post176827

There are also some other threads that discuss smart money etc.
Try searching both this forum and the net under - Volume spread analysis, Wycoff, Smart money. You should find plenty of info on this topic.

Motorway, Nick Radge & Tech/a have posted alot of good info on this subject on this site.
Good luck.

CUL has staged a nice comeback this morning from a low of 6.6c to currently at 7.1c, looks to be a bit of support forming at around the 6.4c-6.6c level.

 

[scuffler]

Hi guys i am new to ASF but not to the market. I have bought some CUL this morning. I looked at it when it was at 4.9 but bought SXP which has done quite well also.
I now hold CUL for the long term.

p.s Young trader you do a great job with your postings but i dont see what all the fuss is about on h.c.
You are positive about the stock, some are not...thats what makes the market....right?

Anyway cheers and good luck.

scuffler.

Refer Nick Radges article as posted above by disarray.
There is also some discussion on this thread about it.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=176827#post176827

There are also some other threads that discuss smart money etc.
Try searching both this forum and the net under - Volume spread analysis, Wycoff, Smart money. You should find plenty of info on this topic.

Motorway, Nick Radge & Tech/a have posted alot of good info on this subject on this site.
Good luck.

CUL has staged a nice comeback this morning from a low of 6.6c to currently at 7.1c, looks to be a bit of support forming at around the 6.4c-6.6c level.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Sam, As I guestimated earlier this is simply consolidation that should occur after a bolt. The chart is looking OK at the moment with consolidation above support around 6.4 cents. Tails on the candles with falling volume positive. If this is a true pennant (think back to FWL chart comments) then the target is the length of the pole on the break up. Just a probability of course. MACD and stochs look bearish at the moment, but this would be expected due to the sudden jump and consoidation. First twist in the Stochastic might be an early sign of a reversal, although this may respond significantly to ann, which will not give time for the lagging indicators to give a sign. Increased volume on consolidation or slight up tick may be the first indication of an ann, of course. A white candle or hammer would be nice today to confirm potential reversal. Dropping through 6.4 untidy.

(holding)

Hey Kennas,

Alot of info there, better get my Technical trading dictionary
Yes I will be watching for twists candles and dragonflys, no wait I mean hammers and Big Macd's lol (I love charting terms)

The trading today is interesting, I don't usually pay attention to Doji's and other technicals but someone said that today should be strong, I'll wait to see

 

[disarray]

^^^ Hi, I am interested in reading more about this information as well. Can you recommend any links regarding the topic of volume analysis and the big players?

another great thread that i think is relevant is dutchy3's "descending triangle breakouts" thread. i reckon his method is picking up smart money plays.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6411