CTM - Centaurus Metals

[Sean K]

Well, I guess it means I can buy back that half I sold at a significantly cheaper price.
All is not least.
Pity they didn't give the non instos and other non "significant" shareholders a chance at buying in at 1.16.
Mick

Nice moves Mick. I had to add some here too. Good long term opportunity.

One thing they are going to do with this cash is another 90,000m of drilling. If they continue to have the same success as they've had with adding Ni they should make the 100Mt @ about 1% for 1Mt Ni club by the end of the year and it be incorporated into the DFS. My crystal ball tells me a 25K pa for 20 year LOM.

 

[bk1]

In strict observance of the Lassonde curve i sold my remaining parcel of CTM.
I should perhaps have seen this CR coming earlier in the face of the macro Nickel supply and demand picture, but i've learnt plenty and made good profit.
Onward to the next exploration opportunity...

 

[Sean K]

In strict observance of the Lassonde curve i sold my remaining parcel of CTM.
I should perhaps have seen this CR coming earlier in the face of the macro Nickel supply and demand picture, but i've learnt plenty and made good profit.
Onward to the next exploration opportunity...

Where do you think we are on the curve bk1? I'd say most likely close to the top of Discovery as they are still defining resources but also starting DFS, so there could be an argument it's over the hump going into the Orphan Period / Feasibility. Since they're drilling another 90Km this year, and could add another 30% to the resource, I'm leaning towards left side of the first hump, maybe 80% up. So, a bit to go for me.

 

[bk1]

The start of DFS in my opinion. I know they have committed, or intend, to a huge drill program, but the slope or gradient of the curve will be shallower to my mind. Take longer to realise gains...

I had an entry and an exit point before i committed money.
At one point it, CTM, was 5% of my portfolio, which is my limit for a junior explorer.
I note that Kerry Harmanis remains on the share register but Lowell exited last month.

 

[Sean K]

CTM telegraphing a change in the mining parameters in the DFS for later this year, just depends by how much I suppose and of course related to extension and exploration success. Going to be a huge year with 11 diamonds rigs turning. This correction and potential future market weakness represents longer term opportunity.

 

[Sean K]

News that Green Twiggs is buying up Western Areas to potentially block the IGO takeover makes me more sure that CTM will be taken over at some stage. The run to green energy / battery metals by the majors and major investors doesn't seem to be stopping any time soon.

Not sure what the risks are with this except it's in the general vicinity of Onca Puma and Vale have had some local issues there. Maybe there's some local community risk I'm not aware of or have missed in my research. Perhaps that's why they've been buying up the land around the project. Otherwise, this is going to be producing, with probable further resource upgrades this year, more than 25K Ni pa for 15 years plus.

 

[Sean K]

Some good extension drilling here and infill de-risking. On the way to 100Mt@1% ish for 1Mt contained Ni, which would be a very nice target to meet this year for the DFS.

Just not sure if they're going to take this to production or be taken out. I think the CR means they might think they're going to mine it themselves.

 

[Sean K]

The start of DFS in my opinion. I know they have committed, or intend, to a huge drill program, but the slope or gradient of the curve will be shallower to my mind. Take longer to realise gains...

I had an entry and an exit point before i committed money.
At one point it, CTM, was 5% of my portfolio, which is my limit for a junior explorer.
I note that Kerry Harmanis remains on the share register but Lowell exited last month.

Yes, start of DFS, but still in a major part of discovery still ongoing. With another 90Km of drilling this year they could end up with anything.

 

[Sean K]

Well, after the break up for no apparent reason and then smashed down to the CR price it's slightly recovered and back on track, hopefully. A new line of support has been formed, hopefully that path continues.

Should be a big news year with all that drilling and another MRE upgrade.

 

[Sean K]

Seems like every man and his dog is going to the RIU Explorers Conference in Freo this month. Wish I could have gone.

CTM's presentation here.

Highlights slide below.

I'm focussed on Project Scope bullet point. I want 100Mt@1% for 1Mt (+/-) Ni this year for 25ktpa over 15 years +.

 

[Sean K]

New note from Sprott after Ausenco appointed to lead the DFS. No change to valuation of $2.60 - more than double current SP.

Hoping for some more significant extension and exploration success near Jaguar to change the mining parameters upwards and therefore valuation.

 

[Sean K]

Must be due some drill results with 14 rigs on site after re-starting drilling post Xmas. Still tracking the upward diagonal support since Jul/Aug 21 nicely with healthy consolidation stages on the way up. Nickel price is probably helping a tad.

 

[Sean K]

This sounds like good news. Didn't realise Brazil had such a scheme. Must be good for financing the project which is not that far away.

 

[Sean K]

Might be a good day to be a Ni holder and a good day to release some good results. Some good extension drilling at Jaguar. Next MRE in Q3 should put them closer to 90Mt for 800Kt Ni at this rate.

 

[Sean K]

New note from Sprott on the back of the extension drilling results above. Target unchanged at $2.60 which is double the current MC, so predicting a $1b company. Check the justification on this price with the peer comparison on how much nickel CTM have to EV. Australian miners are 10x more expensive. Or, CTM could go up 10x I suppose. A $5b company? Maybe not.

 

[Sean K]

This is a beautiful thing.

MC approaching $600m, still half Sprott's ramp. Site visit report below.

 

[mullokintyre]

ok thats it. I'm all out.
Been a great run, but I need a big chunk of cash to install 12kw of solar panels on the roof, as well as a RFX flow battery and a EV charger.
Have made some pretty good profits out of trading this one, and my thanks to Sean k and Bk1 for first putting me on to it.
Will most likely triple in value in a very short time now that I am out.
Good luck punters.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Any junior miners you like that most people (probably) haven’t heard of? *

One that we are really excited about is the nickel sulphide developer Centaurus Metals. The company is developing the Jaguar nickel sulphide project in Brazil. The project is targeting annual nickel production of over 20,000 tonnes per annum with a mine life of over 15 years. Capital expenditure is estimated to be just over $400 million. It is located in an established mining region, supported by low-cost hydroelectric power, and it has good availability of labour.

- from Argonaut’s Natural Resources Fund.

*....... clearly, doesn't apply to ASM

but is it enough to put it in April comp especially as it is nearing an all-time high and, importantly, Mick has bailed?

 

[Sean K]

Unusual volume on Friday. Almost double previous record. Interesting.

 

[mullokintyre]

Its all the punters loading up now that I am out.
Mick