CTM - Centaurus Metals

[Sean K]

CTM being rightly re-rated after the resource upgrade which was better than expected. I think they can still add more nickel to this deposit over the next year or so as they complete development studies. It's still well open, especially at depth, where other deposits in this region go very deep. Sitting on a 20kpa for 20+ years already. Maybe they could even increase the mill size for extra output. Tier 1 asset.

 

[mullokintyre]

My final pick for the 2023 full year comp.
Zinc will be in demand in the massive increase in EV battery usage.
CTM is looking at a world class deposit, good management, and I expect big things forom this one.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

My final pick for the 2023 full year comp.
Zinc will be in demand in the massive increase in EV battery usage.
CTM is looking at a world class deposit, good management, and I expect big things forom this one.
Mick

I've picked this too, I think that's allowed in this comp.

But, my history in the tipping comps is so poor I should not be picking anything I actually own and this is my largest stock holding.

 

[Miner]

I've picked this too, I think that's allowed in this comp.

But, my history in the tipping comps is so poor I should not be picking anything I actually own and this is my largest stock holding.

@Sean K happy new year!
Did I read correctly ? that your largest holding is Centaurus

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K happy new year!
Did I read correctly ? that your largest holding is Centaurus

Yes, closely followed by IOZ. Much more in cash and real estate not on this chart.

 

[Sean K]

Not sure what the catalyst for this is over the next few months until the DFS comes out around mid year. Maybe some significant extension drill results, or off take MOUs, or takeover offer. Not sure if that will happen until the DFS is out.

Will be interesting to see what price assumptions they plug into the model. The SS was done on $7.50/lb but the current price is over $13/lb. By their own numbers at $10/lb Jaguar has an NPV of $2.2b. At $12/lb that must be over $2.5b. Current MC under $500m. Not sure what sort of a discount to NPV they should be trading at at this stage but 25% seems low on the surface of it. Hence why I've picked it for this years comp and it's my largest holding.

Not sure where they can go wrong from here. Political unrest in their region, depression, Indonesia ramps up Ni production too much, Ni price crashes...

Seems to have been de-risken enough for it to be on a radar of the majors.

 

[Miner]

Thanks SC.
To add in your positive note,their NPV and IRR is outstanding.
Regards

 

[Miner]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02605221-6A1125225?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02596322-6A1121461?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

posting to qualify for late entry in CY 23 @debtfree - please note. Why CTM - fantastic NPV, basis of Nickel price is $10 compared to current price gives it leap forward. DFS - ready to be completed by June 23. MD has substantial skin in the game and not asking for million dollars pay package. He is there for the long term. No investment requires for Renewable Energy - saving CAPEX.
I am still thinking to put CTM for the Feb entry - probably April will be a better one. First come first served. Anyone taking for monthly please does take.
Disclaimer - holding

 

[Miner]

Another great drilling result but market does not care or read the report because they know CTM is a tip for Feb from Miner .

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02628228-6A1135103?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

I reckon this report has lot of goodies for my tip to shine by the end of Feb
But I am pretty optimistic - look at the recommendation by stock specialist's chart specialists

I am beating own drum to lift my tip up. But in house punters /experts - what is your thought on this Brazil based nickel hopeful

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02623561-6A1132820?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

 

[Sean K]

I’m not sure what can go wrong here @Miner

Unless they‘re hiding something in regard to capex or permitting. Vale had problems down the road but they’ve told us this is not an issue here. That’s my only concern.

It‘s now a tier 1 deposit rated as an explorer.

 

[Miner]

Another great drilling result but market does not care or read the report because they know CTM is a tip for Feb from Miner .

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02628228-6A1135103?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

View attachment 152831
I reckon this report has lot of goodies for my tip to shine by the end of Feb
But I am pretty optimistic - look at the recommendation by stock specialist's chart specialists

View attachment 152832
I am beating own drum to lift my tip up. But in house punters /experts - what is your thought on this Brazil based nickel hopeful

View attachment 152833

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02623561-6A1132820?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

@Sean K thanks mate.
Good that we are on the same page.
My only concern is the cash flow as shown on QR

 

[Miner]

RIU Explorers' conference is a solid networking where punters and speculators mingle for goss.

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With the presentation from the GM Exploration, I am expecting some positive movement on the stocks.
Wait and see
"Centaurus Metals GM of Exploration & Growth, Roger Fitzhardinge, is presenting on Day 1 at the Vertical Events RIU Explorers Conference being held at the iconic Fremantle Esplanade Hotel, 14-16 February 2023"

 

[Miner]

No barrier to success ahead of biggest RIU Explorers Conference yet - Stockhead

Vertical Events expects the 2023 edition of its esteemed RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle to be its biggest and best yet.

stockhead.com.au

If RIU conference draws attention from Stockead meaning few ramping on tuesday

 

[Sean K]

RIU Explorers' conference is a solid networking where punters and speculators mingle for goss.

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With the presentation from the GM Exploration, I am expecting some positive movement on the stocks.
Wait and see
"Centaurus Metals GM of Exploration & Growth, Roger Fitzhardinge, is presenting on Day 1 at the Vertical Events RIU Explorers Conference being held at the iconic Fremantle Esplanade Hotel, 14-16 February 2023"

I was planning on going to this but got sidetracked. Will be watching on line if possible.

Still nuts that something like CHN or DEG have 5 x the valuation but only double the in situ resource.

 

[Miner]

I was planning on going to this but got sidetracked. Will be watching on line if possible.

Still nuts that something like CHN or DEG have 5 x the valuation but only double the in situ resource.

@Sean K the conf is in Perth.
R U Perth based ?

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K the conf is in Perth.
R U Perth based ?

No, I’m in Melbs. I was going to fly over. A week in Freeo seemed appealing to me. I’ve been to a few similar conferences over the years and they are great value if you’re happy to get in the face of the MDs and CEOs and ask some digging questions.

 

[Miner]

No, I’m in Melbs. I was going to fly over. A week in Freeo seemed appealing to me. I’ve been to a few similar conferences over the years and they are great value if you’re happy to get in the face of the MDs and CEOs and ask some digging questions.

great. Next time you travel over to West /Perth send a PM. It will be nice to put face on the name. But no hard or digging question to the miner who knows only what is a shovel but not how to use it

 

[Sean K]

great. Next time you travel over to West /Perth send a PM. It will be nice to put face on the name. But no hard or digging question to the miner who knows only what is a shovel but not how to use it

One digging question I might have asked is why they keep pushing back the timeline. Below is the Oct pres and the latest at RIU.

The reasons for delays they've given before is significant changes in the resource growth and pit sizes, but it might be something to do with the metallurgy, flow sheet, and POX pilot testing issues. Just guessing, and being the skeptic that I am.

Interesting they've increased the assumption on Ni for the latest presentation up to $11 from the $10 on the previous one. Still well below spot.

Oct 22:

Feb 23:

 

[Miner]

One digging question I might have asked is why they keep pushing back the timeline. Below is the Oct pres and the latest at RIU.

The reasons for delays they've given before is significant changes in the resource growth and pit sizes, but it might be something to do with the metallurgy, flow sheet, and POX pilot testing issues. Just guessing, and being the skeptic that I am.

Interesting they've increased the assumption on Ni for the latest presentation up to $11 from the $10 on the previous one. Still well below spot.

Oct 22:

View attachment 152981

Feb 23:

View attachment 152982

View attachment 152983

Yes @Sean K
Reading the slides yesterday I had the same question. The original assumption of $10/lbs can not change to $11/lbs overnight and pushing target. The issues with mines in Africa, Brazil and alike are often associated with the credibility of information shared vs facts.
The IRR value remained the same (?) with the changed valilue of assumed nickel price. How?
The fetched price of nickel briquette will be factored by the processing cost of Nickel sulphate.
I still see the margin is fantastic on paper as DFS is yet to be completed and published. Funding is available for DFS . Interesting .

 

[Sean K]

I'm not sure how much of Sprotts ramping is pure ramping due to the fact they own a chunk of most of the things they review, or at least support the financing, but they do provide all the numbers to back up their PTs.

The numbers here seem pretty bullish when the stock is current at about $1.10.