CTM - Centaurus Metals

[Sean K]

Now in TH for MRE upgrade. Fingers crossed it exceeds expectations to push it into new territory. Not sure what is factored into the sp already, but probably a 20% increase in the last MRE. But, for the sake of the monthly comp I'm hoping for a 30+% increase.

So perhaps something like 70Mt@0.96% for 670K Nickel, at a minimum.

Current numbers:

 

[Sean K]

Hopefully the MRE upgrade comes out before open in the am. I think it's TH until Tuesday, or until ann comes out, but I guess tmw.

Sprott raised their target to $1.65. I'll be happy with that for this months comp. They're only expecting an additional 5-10Mt on the current 58Mt resource, so hopefully CTM can surprise to the upside on that.

I daresay they'll come out with another report off the back of the MRE update.

(note: Sprott also major holder, so can you believe the numbers)

 

[Sean K]

I got my wish, 30% increase. So, double what Sprott were expecting.

With continued extension drilling success, another MRE upgrade next year could well take it to 100Mt, extend LOM to 20 years and increase throughput to 3.5Mt pa +/- for up to 30K Ni pa.

 

[mullokintyre]

Question is , do I take the profits now or wait for the next MRE upgrade?
If i sell now, can I reasonably expect it to fall before the next up leg?
What is the best risk/reward strategy??
Decisions, decisions.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Question is , do I take the profits now or wait for the next MRE upgrade?
If i sell now, can I reasonably expect it to fall before the next up leg?
What is the best risk/reward strategy??
Decisions, decisions.
Mick

I'm just holding till it gets closer to that Sprott valuation.

Risk between now and then is general market sentiment and the price of Nickel.

 

[mullokintyre]

Well, it obviously was not enough for Mr market.
Down 3%.
Might buy some more if it gets back near a buck.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Well, it obviously was not enough for Mr market.
Down 3%.
Might buy some more if it gets back near a buck.
Mick

LOL. Must have been baked in already. It's a crazy thing this stock market.

 

[mullokintyre]

maybe it might be that a lot of market players read your comments on ASF, and expected a 30% increase , so it may have been already baked in.
Mick

 

[bk1]

What is the best risk/reward strategy??

This is the hardest part of the equation for me to resolve.
The MRE looks like a winner to me, there would be juniors in WA that would struggle to get 2 diamond rigs to a site never mind 13 of them.
And yet, we had a big volume day on 08 Dec to go with the last announcement, and today we are down 3% with the MRE.
I'm not willing to fight the market or a perceived Lassonde curve, taking profit imminently..

 

[Sean K]

I can't see CTM taking this to mining. I think a larger player will buy in once it's de-risked and shows clear potential to be a Tier 1 asset, which is not too far away. Maybe it's already there.

BHP are obviously after Ni and other battery metals and have seemingly just lost out in the bid for Noront, which was only going to be a 15K pa producer plus some other minerals. Twiggy wasn't going to sell his shares in this deal, so it doesn't look good.

There's a big chance a couple of larger players will make a decision on CTM and hopefully there's an arm wrestle over it.

 

[Sean K]

I'm not willing to fight the market or a perceived Lassonde curve, taking profit imminently..

I think I might have picked up some of your shares today BK, cheers. This was one of those dips I thought I should buy as I still think this has further re-rating to go on likely future resource upgrades above Mr Market's perception. I think you bought it way earlier to me though, so well done.

 

[bk1]

Not mine, @Sean K , waiting for an up day and sell into some strength. Not even sure i want to sell all of them, might keep a small amount in the event of a takeover in the Nickel space that everyone keeps talking about.

 

[bk1]

Sprott Equity arguing for a higher NAV multiple on the back of the " market has missed the implications of last weeks engineering update"
Price Target of $2.50 now!
They are going large on this one, believing the market to be "asleep at the wheel" in relation to Centaurus.
I know they are into CTM for a chunk but that is a big jump in PT...

 

[Sean K]

Sprott Equity arguing for a higher NAV multiple on the back of the " market has missed the implications of last weeks engineering update"
Price Target of $2.50 now!
They are going large on this one, believing the market to be "asleep at the wheel" in relation to Centaurus.
I know they are into CTM for a chunk but that is a big jump in PT...

Crikey!

Yes, they are a major holder, and every reason to be bullish, but they'd completely lose credibility if they were so far off.

I should have added a zero to my top up yesty.

 

[Sean K]

So, IGO have just taken over WSA for $1.1b.

WSA's total resource is 70Mt @1.1% Ni for 758Kt contained Ni.

Jaguar already contains 80Mt @.91% Ni for 730Kt and it's open everywhere.

Still flying under the radar I'd say.

Hello BHP!

 

[bk1]

Yes, but the mines WSA owns in Forrestania are some of the highest grading Nickel mines in the world.

 

[Sean K]

Yes, but the mines WSA owns in Forrestania are some of the highest grading Nickel mines in the world.

Yep, and it's operating, WA, and not Brazil. Although, I'm not sure if the district CTM are in should provide a major discount. Only if your mine is in a local village like Vale have been dealing with at Onca Puma. With CTM seemingly on the way to 100Mt for 1Mt Ni, open pit, sulphide, it's still under the radar. Even if Sprott are ramping it.

 

[Sean K]

I don't think she'll do it today, but general trend is pointing to ATHs at some stage. (touch head) Only has to get to half of the Sprott valuation and I'll be happy.

 

[Sean K]

I think this is still well under the radar and with the M&A action happening around the place, I think CTM is going to attract some attention.

EH even have a $1.50 target on it.

Not sure how to reconcile that with a $2.50 from Sprott, but I think you might know.

 

[Sean K]

Failing at ATHs of $1.18 again means that's firming up as some significant short term resistance - selling point for the big money. But, they should also be buying the dips on support with the ma's and that horizontal line, unless Mr Market just breaks everything down. Interesting close though, with after hours auction being bought up supporting my theory. Disappointed that my monthly comp numbers are being held back here. grrrr.