CTM - Centaurus Metals

[bk1]

Well, there's your answer to future plans, ASX announcement.
"proposed Jaguar flotation and nickel sulphate production facility is to be located."
533 Hectares of land added to their current endowment.

 

[mullokintyre]

Thanks to kennas and bk1 and their most valuable discussions recently,I have added centaurus to the portfolio on todays price wekness.
Happy now to sit back till the DFS comes out next year.
Unless of course it shoots over 1.50, then I will have to take my profit.
So much useful discussion on stocks in this forum.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Thanks to kennas and bk1 and their most valuable discussions recently,I have added centaurus to the portfolio on todays price wekness.
Happy now to sit back till the DFS comes out next year.
Unless of course it shoots over 1.50, then I will have to take my profit.
So much useful discussion on stocks in this forum.
Mick

If Ni keeps going on up then I think this will follow it. I think I trust the Argonaut valuation of $1.40 a bit more than Sprott's $1.50 due to Sprott being the major shareholder, so if it makes Argo's guestimate I'll be skimming, unless they make some material discovery that changes the playing field. MRE update due before the end of the year and they've had some good extension drilling results the past couple of months. If they can raise the tonnage up from 60Mt to 70-80Mt ish then that could add another 100-200Kt of Ni and another 5+ years onto the LOM. (Numbers plucked)

 

[Sean K]

No significant update in the Quarterly although they have omitted to remind themselves we're due an MRE upgrade by the EOY.

From an exploration perspective, eight diamond rigs are now operating on site continuing to drill both in-fill and step-out extensional holes at the Project that will underpin the next resource upgrade, planned and on schedule for December 2021. Presently, a single RC rig continues to drill the extensive suite of greenfields targets identified across the tenement area.

What might be new to some is more significant mention of their iron ore project which has a small M&I resource on it and some feasibility studies were done by Vale. Too small for them, plus it's magnetite, so I'm not sure how much value it would be to sell it, but if they could get some more cash on hand shortly that would be good to take them through to DFS for Jaguar. They've only got $15m in the kitty, so CR on the horizon.

 

[Sean K]

Not sure how close CTM is tracking Ni price, but it should obviously have an effect of some sort. CTM is still an explorer, early developer, with lots to navigate to mining. Potential upsides and downsides. As mentioned has the potential to get up to the 80Mt @ 1% mark. My money is on a takeover by a major who wants to bolt on a low emissions miner / green metal project. Twiggy? The Big Australian? Even Oz.

Hoping these support lines hold but any further weekness looks like a long term opportunity. Plus, I need to prop it up for this months comp!

 

[mullokintyre]

To my untrained eye it looks like a series of higher lows, then higher highs.
Rinse. repeat.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

To my untrained eye it looks like a series of higher lows, then higher highs.
Rinse. repeat.
Mick

This will conform to an EW count in 6 months too.

 

[mullokintyre]

Don't tell me. EW equals Elliott Wave??
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I've been expecting M&A activity in this space and thought it more likely one of the locals in Brazil would take it out. Vale or Oz. Since Vale was the one who initially sold it to CTM and will get a royalty from it, that doesn't make a lot of sense. Oz? Maybe. The other suiter may be BHP or something related to Twiggy who are fighting over Noront in Canada. Why pay overs up there when there's a perfectly good well developed property down here? Maybe it's not the scale they're after, but it's a pretty handy 20Kt pa clean Ni product to feast on...

 

[Sean K]

Was expecting some good news this month and hence picked it in the monthly comp. And yes, they did come out with some good news, but I think it was factored into yesterdays gains. Was up quite a bit yesty on nothing, and today slightly down (so far) on something. It's a wacky world this share market.

Anywho, these extension / step out drill results and first assays from Tigre show that the current MRE will grow substantially, and it's already going to be a long life mine. If they can increase total tonnage to 100Mt @ around 1% then that's a whopping 1Mt of Ni sulphate.

Next MRE upgrade mid-Dec, so pencil me in for this in next months comp too @Joe Blow

 

[bk1]

Decent grades too, if grade is still king...

 

[mullokintyre]

Was expecting some good news this month and hence picked it in the monthly comp. And yes, they did come out with some good news, but I think it was factored into yesterdays gains. Was up quite a bit yesty on nothing, and today slightly down (so far) on something. It's a wacky world this share market.

Anywho, these extension / step out drill results and first assays from Tigre show that the current MRE will grow substantially, and it's already going to be a long life mine. If they can increase total tonnage to 100Mt @ around 1% then that's a whopping 1Mt of Ni sulphate.

Next MRE upgrade mid-Dec, so pencil me in for this in next months comp too @Joe Blow

Beat me to it, was just reading the report and calculating the value based on todays Ni price (still north of 20k per tonne \, but back from most recent highs).
100MT would make it a very noice long term earner.
The question now is, how long before they tap the market?
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Decent grades too, if grade is still king...

Grade's are good. Over 2% is high. This thing has the tonnage making it a long-life asset. If they get the LOM up to 15 yrs plus, then it's something a larger player would like to see on their books.

 

[Sean K]

Beat me to it, was just reading the report and calculating the value based on todays Ni price (still north of 20k per tonne \, but back from most recent highs).
100MT would make it a very noice long term earner.
The question now is, how long before they tap the market?
Mick

They had $15m at the end of Sep, so won't be far away. They're a long way from building the mine. Decision to mine not scheduled till Q3 2023. So, there will probably be a couple of raisings between now and then. Unless they fast track things. They probably want to firm up a bigger resource first. MRE upgrades in Dec and then Q2 2022.

 

[Sean K]

New report from Sprott after the recent ann. They only think the next MRE will take it up to the 70Mt mark whereas I was hoping for 80M. Sprott target no change at $1.50. Will wait and see.

 

[Sean K]

CTM and HCH on the panel to discuss operating in Latin America.

Both due for significant resource upgrades to put them on the map, IMO.

$200 and $400m MCs, with $billions of Cu and Ni in the ground waiting to be dug up.

Both will be taken over in the mid term, IMO, due to the flight to RE minerals/metals. Wouldn't be surprised if BHP et al come a knockin.

CTM has just ran from strength to strength and the easy money has been made. Unfortunately, I missed most of that, but this will be a significant Ni miner in the next three years. Or, be owned by BHP.

 

[bk1]

I'm waiting for the next MRE before pulling the trigger. Certainly been a good run so far.
From Lowell Resource Fund in October: "The Fund continued to switch some of its nickel exposure from Centaurus Metals to Azure Minerals"
I was surprised by this, but willing to wait and see.

 

[Sean K]

I'm waiting for the next MRE before pulling the trigger. Certainly been a good run so far.
From Lowell Resource Fund in October: "The Fund continued to switch some of its nickel exposure from Centaurus Metals to Azure Minerals"
I was surprised by this, but willing to wait and see.

Solid plan. LRT tries to invest at the beginning of the upward trend of the Lassonde Curve, and sells near the (theoretical) peak of discovery and development. I think CTM will peak at later development stage once further resources are defined and should climb up to the $1.40 mark, where I'll exit. I'm just buying significant dips on this now. It will obviously be effected by a general market blow off, which I'm expecting, but that will just be another buying opportunity. Cash or leverage is going to be very nice to have in the next 12 months.

 

[Sean K]

Still on schedule to deliver the updated MRE 'imminently'. Just hoping that it clearly indicates the throughput and LOM can be increased a bit to perhaps 22,000Kpa and 15+yrs, for a start. Still room to grow to more than that with continued exploration success and adding in the Tigre discovery.

 

[Sean K]

CTM been going sideways for a few months but obvious diagonal upward trend line on the lows. Going to need something good to take it to all time highs. Hopefully the upgraded MRE does it, but some of that must be factored into the sp already, so will need to surprise to the upside probably. PON is probably a factor. Around six year highs but still nowhere near all time highs. If Ni goes back to $50k, watch out.