CSM - Consolidated Minerals

[Rimtalay]

Hi noirua
I note you didn't take up the offer to email me for information on the manganese and chrome ore pricing. Plus proof the management is doing deals far above those reported or announced.
Re: The info on Netherlands Antilles, why do you think Pallinghurst wants to incorporate there.
If they are able to set up as such that they can keep the ownership % in any identity less than 10%, then they pay no capital gains tax in Australia on any share transaction.
These people are not stupid, they know all the corporate laws and how to get around our Aust tax laws. Anyone who doesn't realise that is a fool.

 

[noirua]

Hi noirua
I note you didn't take up the offer to email me for information on the manganese and chrome ore pricing. Plus proof the management is doing deals far above those reported or announced.
Re: The info on Netherlands Antilles, why do you think Pallinghurst wants to incorporate there.
If they are able to set up as such that they can keep the ownership % in any identity less than 10%, then they pay no capital gains tax in Australia on any share transaction.
These people are not stupid, they know all the corporate laws and how to get around our Aust tax laws. Anyone who doesn't realise that is a fool.

Hi rintalay, Not every country has capital gains tax, New Zealand for instance.
If a company is not incorporated in Australia or an individual lives outside Australia, they are not liable for Australian Capital Gains Tax ( providing they did not buy or sell whilst "a resident" of Australia, etc).
I'm pleased to receive information via "private messages", on ASF.

All companies have their Lawyers and often a director covers this post. I doubt any miss a trick.

 

[Rimtalay]

Talk of split over $625m ConsMin bid AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Michael Vaughan
Consolidated Minerals managing director Rod Baxter has denied suggestions of a split on the company's board in relation to a $625 million takeover offer from Brian Gilbertson's Pallinghurst Resources.
It came as industry sources said some members of the board were no longer comfortable with the proposal and suggested some directors wanted chairman Dick Carter to resign.
"There's no suggestion at all of any split on this [issue] and the board maintains its support as previously indicated for the transaction, in the absence of a superior offer," Mr Baxter said.
There have been reports of opposition from retail shareholders since the release of the scheme booklet for the proposal after the close of trade last Friday.
However, major shareholders have been reluctant to go on the record.
An independent expert's report from PricewaterhouseCoopers said the Pallinghurst consortium's offer for 60 per cent of the company was not fair but was reasonable.
It advised shareholders to accept the bid but said there was no way of evaluating the potential benefits that ex-BHP Billiton chief executive Mr Gilbertson would bring to the deal.
When Mr Gilbertson was in Sydney a fortnight ago, he indicated there were a number of proposals he was working on that would transform the ConsMin.
The scheme document says the board has already seen presentations on certain of Mr Gilbertson's ideas, although none were binding.
PricewaterhouseCoopers valued ConsMin at between $2.33 and $2.77 a share and said the Pallinghurst bid implied a value of $2.50 a share.
A vote on the bid will take place on July 19, at which 75 per cent of shareholders must support the proposal for it to proceed.
The biggest contributor to ConsMin's earnings is it's Woodie Woodie manganese mine in Western Australia.
The company expects to produce between 900,000 and 925,000 tonnes of the steel-making material this year.
The price of manganese has risen sharply in the past two months and ConsMin's current pricing guidance expires at the end of June.
However, in the scheme booklet ConsMin provided its view of the forward manganese market.
It indicated it expected to achieve a manganese price of $US3.30 a dry tonne in the second half of the year, up from $US2.50 in the current half.
In 2008, it forecasts the price will fall to $US2.70 and $US2.60 for the following two years.
A report from metals price news service Ryans Notes at the start of the week said ConsMin ore has achieved a price of $US7.40 a dry tonne for the third quarter.
Mr Baxter denied the company was receiving that price but said all indications were that prices had risen from the first half of 2007.
ConsMin expected negotiations for the next quarter to conclude at the end of this month.
Shares in ConsMin firmed 1 ¢ yesterday to $2.80.

 

[kerosam]

Can't rem which broker, but there is a recommendation to buy in today's West Australian for CSM. I'm a bit disappointed that it ended below $2.70 today though

A bit of selling happening. Maybe I should stock up

Anyone holding CSM, accumulating?

 

[ta2693]

I want to top up, but I can not do this for risk control reason. I have had maximum I can have which account for around 10% of my total portfolio.

 

[Lachlan6]

Technically, (CSM) is right at a crucial junction of support. The uptrending line from Jan 07, along with the medium term EMA and crucial 38.2% fibonacci retracement level, need to hold the stock up, otherwise get ready for bigger falls. Notice the divergence in RSI with the April and May high's this year, which pretty much started this fall from $3.0.

However holders of CSM don't panic yet as the Elliott Wave count is still valid, and the chances are there that it will reverse at this level to now run higher and potentially challenge the old high's. However in saying that I sold last week and shifted into better plays and would only look again if this shows any sign of turing around. Very interesting times at CSM.

 

[Rimtalay]

It's all about to happen, just sit back, watch and wait.

Noble in ConsMin spotlight

Hong Kong commodities trader Noble Group is believed to be weighing up an alliance with the mystery consortium circling WA miner Consolidated Minerals in a bid to trump Brian Gilbertson’s floundering take-over plans.

It is understood that Noble chief executive Richard Elman met senior representatives of the mystery group in Hong Kong this week. Noble, which still holds more than 6 per cent of ConsMin, is considered to be a possible cornerstone backer of a rival offer for the struggling nickel and manganese producer.

Though Noble remains one of ConsMin’s biggest shareholders, it halved its stake nearly two years ago at the Princely sum of $3. 90 a share, or 40 per Cent more than the stock’s $2.71 close yesterday.Noble originally picked up its holding for just 20c a share in 1997 to cancel a $US2.5 million ($2.9 million) debt owed by ConsMjn’s failed Predecessor, Valiant Consolidated. Three months ago, Mr Elman sensationally quit the ConsMin board, ostensibly because of the “increasing demands” of his other business commitments.

However, industry insiders say he was unhappy with the modest terms of the offer put by Mr Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources. Pallinghurst is offering just $l.38 in cash for every ConsMjn share, plus two shares in a “new ConsMin” for every five held in the current vehicle.

The offer will see investors receive just $320 million fur a controlling 60 per cent stake in the company they already own, though it will be bolstered by the greater financial and deal-making clout of Mr Gilbertson and fellow backer AMCI coal baron Hans Mende.

It is expected that any Noble-backed bid for Cons Mm would have the support of its former chief executive and fbunder, Michael Kiernan, who would be offered the chance to regain the helm of the company he was forced to quit last year. Mr Kiernan yesterday stepped down as chairman of uranium explorer Uran due to the increasing “pressure of work”. Mr Kiernan is on the boards of seven public companies, including his gold flagship Monarch Gold and Noble-based groups Territory Resources and Precious Metals Australia.

“I suspect my future may be a bit buy,” he said.

 

[kerosam]

Re: CSM - Consolidated Minerals (Rim & Lach)

i hope this is true Rim! it seems anything M. Kiernan touches turns into gold.

if it ever hits its high of $3.90, gone will be my car debt :

Lachlan6, what does RSI and Elliot Wave indicate? All i know is they are traders' indicators (out of many).

 

[Sean K]

Technically, (CSM) is right at a crucial junction of support. The uptrending line from Jan 07, along with the medium term EMA and crucial 38.2% fibonacci retracement level, need to hold the stock up, otherwise get ready for bigger falls. Notice the divergence in RSI with the April and May high's this year, which pretty much started this fall from $3.0.

However holders of CSM don't panic yet as the Elliott Wave count is still valid, and the chances are there that it will reverse at this level to now run higher and potentially challenge the old high's. However in saying that I sold last week and shifted into better plays and would only look again if this shows any sign of turing around. Very interesting times at CSM.

Lachy, disregarding EW (maybe fateful) the S&R lines I see do not correspond to your EW retractments. I always look at this for some sort of validity/fidality/confirmation of EW counts. They should be in sync to have a higher probability of correctness.

There should be minor support at $2.60, but I think $2.70 was the key. Next level is $2.40 IMO.

But, under this merger debarcle, T/A flies out the window, perhaps.

 

[kerosam]

read the article rim posted on today's papers.

some glimpse of hope.

Rim, u think this news is made known to whole Australia or the West Australian? Next week might be interesting.

 

[Rimtalay]

Don't worry about that, ConsMin vote No team members are spreading it everywhere, you can even read it at Advanced Financial in the UK.
Don't worry we don't miss a trick. All the big holders and newspapers will know by Monday.
Let the games begin.

 

[Lachlan6]

Gday Kennas. I still see the EW count validated on the (CSM) chart without a doubt. However upon bringing up the weekly chart, I found this was the retracement we had to have (Scary sounding a little too much like Paul Keating) as it was only 1 cent short of the 50% level from July 2005 highs to 06 lows. It is AMAZING how accurately this 50% level works. This is why I have the upmost respect for WD Gann and his principles.

Another cracker example which I got out of at $3.37 (scaled in posi) is (MCP). Check this 50% level again from the 2005 highs to 06 lows. Only 2c off this 50% level before retracing.

 

[Rimtalay]

Price Of Chinese Silico-Manganese Has Risen To US$1,650 / Ton CIF Japan As Highest
= Reflecting Steeply Risen Domestic Price And View To Raise Electric Power Fees From July
The price of Chinese silico-manganese for export has strengthened again a power to rise further from last week and is being offered at US$1,600 - 1,650 per ton CIF Japan as a further rise from that ( US$1,500 - 1,550 CIF ) prevailed on the end of May.

An anxious feeling of the difficulties to secure ( to import ) manganese ore as raw material has deepened in domestic market of China and price of Chinese silico-manganese transacted in domestic market has risen to CNY9,800 - 10,000 per ton at present. Reflecting a tightness on supply of silico-manganese, payment term is mainly on cash base.

On the basis of this CNY price, FOB China price on US$ base is calculated to be US$1,420 - 1,430 per ton, including export duty, and even when US$30 per ton of ocean freight and other charges are added to this FOB price, price of Chinese silico-manganese on CIF Japan base will come to be about US$200 per ton lower than that currently offered for Japan as mentioned above. This differential of US$200 per ton has included an expectation of higher prices for silico-manganese in the near future and speculative purchases of silico-manganese by steel trading companies in China.

However, it has been rumored in China that basic fees of electric power will be raised from July, and the factors to increase costs for production of silico-manganese in China are too numerous to mention. The Central Government of China has already enforced differential fees of electric power by 4 times in the past years and the latest enforcement from January of 2007 is to add CNY0.15 per 1 KWH to the basic fee applied to the industries to be curtailed and CNY0.04 per 1 KWH to the basic fee applied to the industries to be restrained. Consequently, the current fees of electric power for industrial purpose used by major producers of ferro-alloys in China are estimated to be in the range of CNY0.42 - 0.45 per 1 KWH.
last modified : Fri 15 Jun, 2007 [10:24]

 

[Rimtalay]

Monday, 18 June 2007


IF THERE really is a second takeover bid looming for troubled manganese miner Consolidated Minerals, Dryblower wonders why the share price is falling?


That was the question which occupied much thinking late last week as reports circulated of a rival move on ConsMin, and investors were busy clipping 17c off the share price.

After opening at $2.80 on Friday, ConsMin fell to close at $2.63.

What made that 6% fall so interesting is that Friday was the day speculation hit fever pitch that the second takeover syndicate, led by former chief executive Michael Kiernan, would ride in to do battle with the original bidder, a group led by former BHP Billiton boss Brian Gilbertson.

At the risk of stating the obvious, when there are two bids for the same business, and both seem well funded and aggressively led, and the share price of the target is falling, something's wrong.

Either the market has overpriced ConsMin in the excitement of the convoluted first bid from the Gilbertson group.

Or there is no rival bid.

Or the board of ConsMin is in disarray and investors are ducking for cover.

Whatever the current situation, and the next few days should throw more light on the fate of the company, there is a simple reason for most of the angst inside a business which should be enjoying boom times as the manganese price rises – but which has now seen its share price fall by 13% since it peaked this year at $3.03 on May 30.

That reason is the "not fair, but reasonable" verdict of an independent export looking at the terms of the original bid.

Apart from the absurd complexity of that offer, which culminated in the production of a monster document occupying some 443 pages, there was equally absurd conclusion "not fair, but reasonable".

Dryblower might be old-fashioned but in his world fair and reasonable are two words that go together so naturally that it is impossible to imagine one without the other.

What the experts at the accounting firm, PriceWaterhouseCoopers seem to be saying is that the Gilbertson-led bid is ok, sort of.

But in the same sentence, they're saying with absolute clarity that the deal isn't fair – a word which, when tested, also means adequate.

Little wonder that there have been stories circulating of ructions inside the ConsMin board.

How on earth could any director stand before shareholders, the people whose money he's managing, and defend a takeover offer which an independent expert has found to not be adequate, sorry, fair.

But recommend and defend the board has done. The chairman, Dick Carter, says precisely that in his two-page letter inside the bid document.

The core of Carter's argument is that Gilbertson, and his team, have the ability to lift ConsMin to greater heights with their deal-making capacity – to which Dryblower says "what deals?" because as far as he can see there's no detail of what lies ahead.

Carter will have his chance to explain in person why he wants to see ConsMin become 60% owned by the Gilbertson syndicate at a series of shareholder and optionholder meetings on July 17.

Between now and then, there is plenty of opportunity for the troubles brewing beneath the surface to bubble over.

That, to Dryblower, is why some investors are taking their money off the table and selling ConsMin shares.

The next question, of course, is who's buying?

It doesn't require too much imagination to see the Kiernan-led rival group using the confusion in the market to soak up a handy position in ConsMin – and it doesn't need too many shares to torpedo the Gilbertson group given that it needs a 75% vote in favour.

At this point, while thinking about what might happen, Dryblower's head is starting to feel as stuffed full of numbers and possibilities as the 443-page PriceWaterhouseCoopers report, and he can tell you that's neither fair, nor reasonable – just confusing.

 

[bigtbigt]

Hi - I'm a newbie on this bb. A UK investor in cnm. Perhaps you guys might want to join our UK chats on http://www.iii.co.uk

Anyhow, here's a little bit of news (you may or may not have seen)...

-----
From the West Australian Newspaper Saturday 16th June 07

Noble in ConsMin spotlight

Hong Kong commodities trader Noble Group is believed to be weighing up an alliance with the mystery consortium circling WA miner Consolidated Minerals in a bid to trump Brian Gilbertson’s floundering take-over plans.

It is understood that Noble chief executive Richard Elman met senior representatives of the mystery group in Hong Kong this week. Noble, which still holds more than 6 per cent of ConsMin, is considered to be a possible cornerstone backer of a rival offer for the struggling nickel and manganese producer.

Though Noble remains one of ConsMin’s biggest shareholders, it halved its stake nearly two years ago at the Princely sum of $3. 90 a share, or 40 per Cent more than the stock’s $2.71 close yesterday.Noble originally picked up its holding for just 20c a share in 1997 to cancel a $US2.5 million ($2.9 million) debt owed by ConsMjn’s failed Predecessor, Valiant Consolidated. Three months ago, Mr Elman sensationally quit the ConsMin board, ostensibly because of the “increasing demands” of his other business commitments.

However, industry insiders say he was unhappy with the modest terms of the offer put by Mr Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources. Pallinghurst is offering just $l.38 in cash for every ConsMjn share, plus two shares in a “new ConsMin” for every five held in the current vehicle.

The offer will see investors receive just $320 million fur a controlling 60 per cent stake in the company they already own, though it will be bolstered by the greater financial and deal-making clout of Mr Gilbertson and fellow backer AMCI coal baron Hans Mende.

It is expected that any Noble-backed bid for Cons Mm would have the support of its former chief executive and fbunder, Michael Kiernan, who would be offered the chance to regain the helm of the company he was forced to quit last year. Mr Kiernan yesterday stepped down as chairman of uranium explorer Uran due to the increasing “pressure of work”. Mr Kiernan is on the boards of seven public companies, including his gold flagship Monarch Gold and Noble-based groups Territory Resources and Precious Metals Australia.

“I suspect my future may be a bit busy,â he said.
-----

 

[Rimtalay]

WWW.MININGNEWS.NET dryblower
ConsMin and its falling share price


Monday, 18 June 2007


IF THERE really is a second takeover bid looming for troubled manganese miner Consolidated Minerals, Dryblower wonders why the share price is falling?


That was the question which occupied much thinking late last week as reports circulated of a rival move on ConsMin, and investors were busy clipping 17c off the share price.

After opening at $2.80 on Friday, ConsMin fell to close at $2.63.

What made that 6% fall so interesting is that Friday was the day speculation hit fever pitch that the second takeover syndicate, led by former chief executive Michael Kiernan, would ride in to do battle with the original bidder, a group led by former BHP Billiton boss Brian Gilbertson.

At the risk of stating the obvious, when there are two bids for the same business, and both seem well funded and aggressively led, and the share price of the target is falling, something's wrong.

Either the market has overpriced ConsMin in the excitement of the convoluted first bid from the Gilbertson group.

Or there is no rival bid.

Or the board of ConsMin is in disarray and investors are ducking for cover.

Whatever the current situation, and the next few days should throw more light on the fate of the company, there is a simple reason for most of the angst inside a business which should be enjoying boom times as the manganese price rises – but which has now seen its share price fall by 13% since it peaked this year at $3.03 on May 30.

That reason is the "not fair, but reasonable" verdict of an independent export looking at the terms of the original bid.

Apart from the absurd complexity of that offer, which culminated in the production of a monster document occupying some 443 pages, there was equally absurd conclusion "not fair, but reasonable".

Dryblower might be old-fashioned but in his world fair and reasonable are two words that go together so naturally that it is impossible to imagine one without the other.

What the experts at the accounting firm, PriceWaterhouseCoopers seem to be saying is that the Gilbertson-led bid is ok, sort of.

But in the same sentence, they're saying with absolute clarity that the deal isn't fair – a word which, when tested, also means adequate.

Little wonder that there have been stories circulating of ructions inside the ConsMin board.

How on earth could any director stand before shareholders, the people whose money he's managing, and defend a takeover offer which an independent expert has found to not be adequate, sorry, fair.

But recommend and defend the board has done. The chairman, Dick Carter, says precisely that in his two-page letter inside the bid document.

The core of Carter's argument is that Gilbertson, and his team, have the ability to lift ConsMin to greater heights with their deal-making capacity – to which Dryblower says "what deals?" because as far as he can see there's no detail of what lies ahead.

Carter will have his chance to explain in person why he wants to see ConsMin become 60% owned by the Gilbertson syndicate at a series of shareholder and optionholder meetings on July 17.

Between now and then, there is plenty of opportunity for the troubles brewing beneath the surface to bubble over.

That, to Dryblower, is why some investors are taking their money off the table and selling ConsMin shares.

The next question, of course, is who's buying?

It doesn't require too much imagination to see the Kiernan-led rival group using the confusion in the market to soak up a handy position in ConsMin – and it doesn't need too many shares to torpedo the Gilbertson group given that it needs a 75% vote in favour.

At this point, while thinking about what might happen, Dryblower's head is starting to feel as stuffed full of numbers and possibilities as the 443-page PriceWaterhouseCoopers report, and he can tell you that's neither fair, nor reasonable – just confusing.

 

[Rimtalay]

Manganese ore remains at historic highs despite thin trading
BEIJING (Metal-Pages) 19-June-07. The Chinese manganese ore market remains steady at historic highs, although a slowdown in demand from alloy makers has led to a thin market, according to industry sources.

Spot prices are around Rmb62-65/mtu for high grade lumpy material with Australian origin, while import prices are being quoted at $6.3-6.5/mtu CIF China. Values were just at Rmb25-27/mtu and $2.6-2.8/mtu CIF at the beginning of this year.

“Tightness in global supply and high offers from overseas suppliers are continuing to support the market, although manganese alloy markets have been falling,” said a manganese ore seller in China.

A trade source described the market as thin, adding. “At present manganese smelters are in hot water. They are unsure if they can make profit if they buy in the high-priced raw material.”

“Overseas suppliers seem to be very upbeat as global production has yet to improve much over the past year,” a second trader said. “But sooner or later the ore market will be affected if the alloy markets continue to struggle, as China consumes the largest part of the world production.”

China’s imports of manganese ore totalled 1.89 million tonnes in the first four months of 2007, which was 30% over last year’s amount, according to Chinese Customs.

 

[huddpy]

hello from england.

just finding my way round here trying to make sense of cnm at pres.

outed my holding as it looks as if this t/o is going to be forced through, not a happy ted.

any info appreciated.

hud.

 

[kerosam]

received the booklet scheme today. a bit too much to read even during the weekend is coming.

question to the floor, if there's another rival bid, when is the closing date or if there's one, for the rival to make an offer? well, the volume these few days are not pointing towards that happening though.

 

[Rimtalay]

huddpy, I doubt that the deal will pass at the present price, there is already 16% of the vote of big holders against the vote. No shareholder will benefit from the deal. Only an idiot would accept the deal as it stands, and I doubt whether many idiots have a lot of shares.
The management have almost no shares, Mr Richard Elman of Noble Group quit the board as he would not support the vote. He is with Mr Michael Kiernan presently looking at a counter bid.
The big holders already realise that manganese is up more than in early 2005 and that alone will propel ConsMin to $4-$5/share. There is NO risk, I say NO risk. Manganese and Chromite will blow ConsMin out of the water next year, you could be looking at $200 million profit on contracts presently being settled for next year. Nickel is a little more unsure, the production will be ramped up with 132N coming online, but it may only add 1000 tons to the total, they should be getting into higher grades shortly at the other mines, so 6000 tons will be about the total for next year. And the nickel price could be back down to the US$14/lb level next year, but who knows it could also be back to US$24/lb.
But manganese is the thing, just read the Manganese Institute conference papers presently being held in Vienna, and you'll know why.
Don't forget ConsMin has the only chrome ore mine in Australia, and India and South Africa are trying to stop all exports of chrome ore, they'd rather that companies value-add it to ferro-chrome. Chrome ore will add another $20 million profit.
The only thing to worry about is all the suckers and the sheep, who'll sell it down trying to get out before the vote. Other words, they have NO GUTS, OR NO BRAINS