CQT - Conquest Mining

[Realist]

Note the options are trading more strongly than the ordinary shares.
CQTO
A new AUM in the making......caveat emptor

Why do you say this?

Please explain in more detail..

 

[ALFguy]

what a coincidence! I bought in at 26.5 c as well

seems to me the sellers are winning at the moment

a bit of manipulation going on I think

That said, it appears the whole market is down at the moment.

I'm holding on. Can see some 'potential' (there's that word again) for this to move up over the next few days/weeks.

Hopefully the media won't start doing comparisons with CDU.

A steady release of drilling results is what this really needs.

 

[Nicks]

just out of interest, at what price did everyone buy into CQT?

I got in at 28.5c thanks to the initial 3 or 4 posters on this thread. Thanks again for the good call and tip.

 

[Realist]

One thing that concerns me is this...

"the company is presently considering its financing options to ensure that the drilling program will be fully funded"

What does this mean to you guys?

 

[imajica]

does that 700 million dollar estimate of the tested area (20% of the magentic anomaly) include the silver hill prospect? it seems to me we might have another 700 million or so of value attributed to this tenement as well. combine that with the potential resource in the other 80% and we could potentially see a total resource value somewhere between 3-4 billion !!


one word: niiiice!!

 

[cuttlefish]

realist for someone that claims to be an expert on fundamentally valuing a company you don't seem to know much about actually doing it.

Use NPV to get and idea of a value for the company - check out CUO's latest financing report where they do an NPV estimate. There is also an NPV function in Excel that you can use.

In relation to the financing options it means they need more capital to continue drilling. They'll try to get bank finance but if they don't then it'll be equity. Placing 10 million shares at .40 cents for example woudl give them 4 million which would see them through a lot of drilling and not dilute the market cap much at all.

btw - in relation to trading and stoplosses etc. - you'll find that with tight stops you can allocate more capital to a trade without risking as much - because the tight stop protects capital. So for example allocating $10K to a trade from 28 to 32 cents give a $400 gain, and with a tight stop at .27 you're only risking $100. This is just a theoretical example.

Also if you're confident of your fundamentals and have done detailed analysis this can also mean having confidence to allocate more capital to a trade as well.

btw I'm not a trader, but am interested in understanding trading better, so have been doing a bit of reading and giving it a bit of a go. I'm sure I'll make quite a few mistakes at first - which might make me a bit conservative overall so I protect my capital.

I'd agree that the tight trailing stop that pushed me out at .32, in hindsight wasn't a great decision - maybe I should have made it a partial sell down instead, leaving me more to run.

btw I hadn't done any kind of detailed fundamental analysis at that point - had just seen the amazing drill results and thought it was worth a punt on momentum.

 

[Realist]

Okay it is time for all of us to take a step back, forget the current share price, forget market sentiment, stop ramping it up, and look for any downside, and try and roughly value this company so we know when to sell and for how much.

Lets say this "potential" turns into "actual" and the share price rockets - we need to know what price to sell at, forget the bloody graphs and trends I want to know what this company could be worth, and if the share price becomes overvalued I'll sell.


Okay CQT has about $3M in cash. $600K in debt.

It's outstanding shares is increasing rapidly - which is a huge concern.

It is gonna need to get more money to start mining - hence the shares will be dilluted alot more before we see any profits.

It has potentially $250M in Gold, $190M in Silver, and $250M in copper. That is about $700M.

The current Market cap is $65M.

How much does it cost to eke out a ton of copper, how much for an ounce of gold or silver? How long will it take?

Lets say they make 25% on each ounce they sell. Is that a fair estimate?

Then they'll (actually we'll) make $175M. About 3 times the market cap.

If that is the case - the share price would be worth about $1.20

Is that fair?


Imajica can you post that guy's opst who said $20 - to see what he said?

 

[cuttlefish]

does that 700 million dollar estimate of the tested area (20% of the magentic anomaly) include the silver hill prospect? it seems to me we might have another 700 million or so of value attributed to this tenement as well. combine that with the potential resource in the other 80% and we could potentially see a total resource value somewhere between 3-4 billion !!


one word: niiiice!!

imajica - I think it would include a fair bit of the silver hill drilling, but they did say it didn't include the drill hole with the 4,350 g/t ag intersect.

There's also another large prospect called silver ridge that they haven't started drilling at all yet as far as I know. (its not in the herbert ck/silver hill area - its south of the western lodes deposit). And of course its quite possible there'll be more surprises around the silver hill/v2/herbert creek area.

One would hope given all of the attention recently on CDU that they would have headed for the cautious side in doing their inferred estimates and not made any big projections outside the drilled area.

 

[Realist]

realist for someone that claims to be an expert on fundamentally valuing a company you don't seem to know much about actually doing it.

Valuing this is not an easy task. I value companies that make profits - not speculative mining explorers.

I had a fair idea what they meant Cuttlefish and it was all bad news - just wanted to see what others thought.

I'd agree that the tight trailing stop that pushed me out at .32, in hindsight wasn't a great decision - maybe I should have made it a partial sell down instead, leaving me more to run.

btw I hadn't done any kind of detailed fundamental analysis at that point - had just seen the amazing drill results and thought it was worth a punt on momentum.

Yeah well you win some and lose some.

I did no fundamental analysis on this, you can't really - it was a punt, and I held my balls when it dropped to 28 cents - I too was nearly out. My "investing" mentality said hold, hold, so I did.

Would you buy back in?

 

[Realist]

It is 44.5 cents now, anyone want more?

I've bought some more...

 

[cuttlefish]

Valuing this is not an easy task. I value companies that make profits - not speculative mining explorers.

I had a fair idea what they meant Cuttlefish and it was all bad news - just wanted to see what others thought.



Yeah well you win some and lose some.

I did no fundamental analysis on this, you can't really - it was a punt, and I held my balls when it dropped to 28 cents - I too was nearly out. My "investing" mentality said hold, hold, so I did.

Would you buy back in?

A lot of people make good money doing fundamental analysis on penny miners.

Anyway - this is an innane discussion - I've provided some valuable information about trading and about how to do fundamentals - you've provided some pictures of rockets.

 

[Realist]

A lot of people make good money doing fundamental analysis on penny miners.

Anyway - this is an innane discussion - I've provided some valuable information about trading and about how to do fundamentals - you've provided some pictures of rockets.

Your trading tip is jump into anything that moves with a tight trailing stop. If things look slightly wrong jump out.

You'll end up jumping out of the good ones doing that unless you time it perfectly.

And if you do hit a winner, you'll jump out before you make any money. Cause no doubt it'll dip at some point.

Your Fundamental analysis sucks as well. You think TLS is a good buy.

 

[cuttlefish]

ah well - you know it all then I suppose.

My trading tip was that stop losses and money management can be used effectively as a way of limiting capital risk and applying more capital to a trade.

Got a crystal ball have you? Why don't you buy some TLS puts if you're so confident.

 

[Realist]

ah well - you know it all then I suppose.

My trading tip was that stop losses and money management can be used effectively as a way of limiting capital risk and applying more capital to a trade.

Got a crystal ball have you? Why don't you buy some TLS puts if you're so confident.

Where did I say I know it all?

Any idiot knows what stop losses are for. You are telling us nothing new. Yes you can put more into each trade if you use narrow trailing stop losses, all I was pointing out is you'll get pulled from a winner too often for my liking. Any real winner like PDN you'd be in and out like a yoyo making little money.

As an investor you should know that holding onto a winner is the best thing you can do to reduce tax and brokerage and give it a chance to grow and for you to compound your gains.

You're reading trading books and getting brainwashed with this jump in and jump out trading. Traders jump out of winners as quickly as they jump into them. Of anyone here Cuttlefish I'd have thought you'd have realised this.

As for TLS, yes I do have a crystal ball. It will chug along as it has done for the past 6 years. Nowhere to grow, forever losing pieces off its former monopoly, it pays reasonable dividends but the price drop cancels those out. It'd be wiser to put 98% of your money in the bank, 1% in CQT and 1% in MTN (and do not even look at the share price).

 

[cuttlefish]

You're reading trading books and getting brainwashed with this jump in and jump out trading. Traders jump out of winners as quickly as they jump into them. Of anyone here Cuttlefish I'd have thought you'd have realised this.

No, I'm reading trading books with a view to enhancing my FA approach, applying what I'm reading, and learning from the results, and I've got nothing to complain about so far.

As for TLS, yes I do have a crystal ball. It will chug along as it has done for the past 6 years. Nowhere to grow, forever losing pieces off its former monopoly, it pays reasonable dividends but the price drop cancels those out.

ok well since its so obvious go and write some naked OTM calls against it then and make yourself a motza.

 

[Nicks]

ah well - you know it all then I suppose.

My trading tip was that stop losses and money management can be used effectively as a way of limiting capital risk and applying more capital to a trade.

Got a crystal ball have you? Why don't you buy some TLS puts if you're so confident.

Well done cuttlefish, I think you are stating something intelligent regarding trading on this thread.
This guy Reallist is certainly not that, a reallist. He has no rhyme or reason. Everything he says is ramping. Stuff like '44.5 i bought more, anyone else want some' (or whatever he said). All we get are insults.
I wouldnt bother arguing with someone who cannot say anything intelligent and has clearly no knowledge at trading or common sense investing.

 

[Realist]

Well done cuttlefish, I think you are stating something intelligent regarding trading on this thread.
This guy Reallist is certainly not that, a reallist. He has no rhyme or reason. Everything he says is ramping. Stuff like '44.5 i bought more, anyone else want some' (or whatever he said). All we get are insults.
I wouldnt bother arguing with someone who cannot say anything intelligent and has clearly no knowledge at trading or common sense investing.

There's no need to get personal Nick. When have I ever insulted you or anyone?

I merely stated that I thought you should have held - then you got all uptight and got your nickers in a twist. I don't know if it is because you are embarassed by your lack of confidence or regretting missing out on more money. Either way it does not warrant you having a go at me.

I did buy a few more shares today - what is wrong with me telling people that? I am not ramping this stock, less than 1% of my portfolio is in this, this is just playing around for me.

Maybe I'll lose money, maybe it will soar - I'm playing this differently to you. And you are the only one all uptight about it.

As I said before any idiot can put in place stop losses or take part profits - you think you are some sort of trading genius for stating this?

All I was saying and I'll say it again, is traders often jump in and jump out of opportunities far too quickly to ever make big money. There are times when you need to back yourself and in a price dip not pull out but even buy more.

This still looks like a good one to hold despite it going from 50c to 43.5c today. I hope for both our sakes it does well I will hold in the meantime.

 

[Dr Stock]

Management sounds good. I like it. Looks like a long term buy to me. Could have sold at 50c, decided to hold.

 

[stockmaster]

Not all capping or "manipulation" is underhanded or designed with evil intent by devious groups...sometimes, it is simply the product of mass psychology at work!

For example...

Group 1...Today's early sellers wanted to buy back in lower...as such they loaded the sell side a few points from the action and pulled their buy bids down a bit lower, or off the market entirely.

Group 2...Today's larger buyers (smart money), also recognising the significance of the results and changing dynamics for this company (and wanting in on the news), know too well not to buy in early on such a spike day...they too wanted lower prices and are likely to have avoided generating buying interest. They may even bought a few shares, then immediately loaded them into the sell queue.

Group 3...Core holders, perhaps interested in accumulting more on the news, are also likely to want cheaper entry prices...as such, they too are likely to help facilitate the appearance of weakness and overhead, perhaps selling a few and loading the sell side depth, while gradually accumulating throughout the day.

Group 4...Other core holders...the type that have been in for a while...would have done nothing other than look on with interest!

Group 5...Finally we have the buyers on the spike...more than likely temporary and inexperienced "traders", unaware that although the news was good, you don't just jump in on an 8c "gap" open...especially after the recent signifcant rises. Well this lot are probably the only ones really who want to see higher prices immediately...and they only want this so they can sell, adding even more downside pressure everytime the shares begin to rally.

The problem with this last group is they hate to buy unless everyone else is buying (safety in numbers?)...so, instead of buying days or even weeks earlier, as some of us have kept telling everyone, they wait to see what the company has to announce first.

They will tell you they do this for safety, because the stock is too expensive without knowing...blah, blah, blah....then, when the news comes out, they buy in with everyone else, which due to normal market forces, results in a temporary spike in the share price.

When the buying subsides, as it usually does, the shares come back to the underlying support (or interest) level...sometimes however, not until it has overshot on the downside first.

Those stuck in at higher prices then "can" the stock, or the contents of the "report" as being rubbish, or a dog...or whatever...lol...but the real irony is that they actually bought the stock for the right reasons.

They just timed it badly!

Such was the case with CQT today...they made a significant announcement today, clearly plenty of reason for a re-rating, which we got...only problem is, the re-rating started a few weeks back.

So what to they do now...sell and cut their loses?

Absolutley not...if you don't have to sell then why do it? I supect one of the biggest problems here is that the instant many people become a shareholder, their mindset shifts into sell mode...this is rediculous!

The re-rating, based on what is officially in the public domain is all but complete in my opinion, with recent activity suggesting likely underlying interest in the low 40's...this should be confirmed within a day or two...as such, current prices effectivley offer the next cheap entry prior to another re-rating.

Given today's announcement was rather conservative, my guess is the next re-rating could be sooner rather than later...all they have to do is be a little more generous with the resource calculations, include a few more holes, extrapolate within JORC guidlines...and of course, incorporate the high grade hits!

We all know one of the most common mistakes made by less experienced traders is to buy at the highs and sell at the lows...give a point or two, anyone who sells at current levels, in my opinion, is selling when they should be buying...or in other words, more or less at the lows.

The time to buy was pretty much every day prior to today's open...just as I have been saying for days...just like NOW is the time to buy once again.

In the end however, virtually any price paid today will not matter in coming weeks...but for those with a trading timeframe in the minutes and hours, I guess it wasn't a good day.

The fundamentals got a whole lot better today...in the meantime however, the market is taking advantage of the unsophisticated types...lol...it can be a little insensitive like that.

If you bought high today and decide to sell low, you have fallen into their trap...if however you can show a little patience, instead of losing 10% or so in a day or two, you could well be reaping profits of 20% or more in just a few weeks.

Think about that...and for god sakes people, stop checking your account balances every 10 minutes...you will never become successful like that!

A very good and realistic explanation!

 

[Realist]

So what to they do now...sell and cut their loses?

Absolutley not...if you don't have to sell then why do it? I supect one of the biggest problems here is that the instant many people become a shareholder, their mindset shifts into sell mode...this is rediculous!
.....................................................................................................

Think about that...and for god sakes people, stop checking your account balances every 10 minutes...you will never become successful like that!

Agreed...