Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
Jump to new
Tiziana’s anti-IL-6R mAb binds to both the membrane-bound and soluble forms of IL-6R and rapidly depletes circulating levels of IL-6 in blood. Excessive production of IL-6 is regarded as a key driver of chronic inflammation and is believed to be associated with severe lung damage observed with COVID-19 infections and acute respiratory illness. China’s National Health Commission has recommended the use of anti-IL6-R mAbs for treatment of inflammation and elevated cytokine levels (“cytokine storm”) in COVID-19 patients. A recent study also reported that COVID-19 infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness like ARDS.
 
I don't wish to cause alarm but let's be realistic here.

Just last weekend we were still running sporting events and festivals with large crowds.

We have since seen a 500 person limit on indoor gatherings, now reduced to 100 and with a further restriction of not less than 4m2 per person. All done, tightened and tightened again in the space of a few days.

Tasmania has largely isolated itself from the rest of the country, Australia is closed to all foreign citizens arriving and Queensland is apparently closing its border with the NT.

All done during this past week.

Now there's this: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...uburb-by-suburb-20200320-p54cba.html#comments

The URL gives you the gist of it. Suburb by suburb lockdowns.

As I said, I don't wish to cause alarm but my suggestion to all is that if you are not suitably prepared for a lockdown then you should spend this weekend doing whatever you need to do in order to be prepared. At the rate things are going, it may well be reality before too much longer. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
I don't wish to cause alarm but let's be realistic here.

Just last weekend we were still running sporting events and festivals with large crowds.

We have since seen a 500 person limit on indoor gatherings, now reduced to 100 and with a further restriction of not less than 4m2 per person. All done, tightened and tightened again in the space of a few days.

Tasmania has largely isolated itself from the rest of the country, Australia is closed to all foreign citizens arriving and Queensland is apparently closing its border with the NT.

All done during this past week.

Now there's this: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...uburb-by-suburb-20200320-p54cba.html#comments

The URL gives you the gist of it. Suburb by suburb lockdowns.

As I said, I don't wish to cause alarm but my suggestion to all is that if you are not suitably prepared for a lockdown then you should spend this weekend doing whatever you need to do in order to be prepared. At the rate things are going, it may well be reality before too much longer. :2twocents
Click to expand...
I agree 100% smurf and will add,if I may and I am not of a medical background.
IMO the problem Aust has is, we will probably have to do it for longer, because we don't have the cross contamination rates required.
We can shut down next week, for two weeks, then a week later someone gets it and it starts all over again.
Unless there is enough people go through the process of catching it and developing antibodies, all that will happen is the process will start up again, it really is a balancing act when to call for a complete shutdown.
But as you say, it will have to be getting close, Tasmania is a unique situation, an island full of old people who really can't afford to have an outbreak.
They really are doing the best thing, and it would indicate they are trusting on the Federal Government to eradicate it on the mainland, to stop any future outbreak there.
I would be surprised if it wasn't a joint decision, it makes a lot of sense, but is pointless if we don't eradicate it on the mainland.
That can't be done unless it is carried out carefully and at the right time, it really is a time to leave it to the experts to make the call, rather than rallying around senseless media dribble.
This is serious on a lot more levels, than most realise IMO.
Just my opinion
 
The total number of cases in Italy rose to 47,021 from a previous 41,035, a rise of 14.6 per cent, the Civil Protection Agency said.

In its most complete analysis of the outbreak yet published, the national health institute (ISS) said the average age of those who died was 78.5 years, with the youngest victim aged 31 and the oldest 103. The median age was 80.

Some 41 per cent of all those who died were aged between 80-89, with the 70-79 age group accounting for a further 35 per cent.

Italy has the oldest population in the world after Japan, with some 23 per cent of people aged over age 65. Medical experts say these demographics could explain why the death toll here is so much higher than anywhere else in the world.

The ISS report, based on a survey of 3,200 of the dead, said men accounted for 70.6 per cent of the deaths and women 29.4 per cent. The median age for the women who died was 82 against 79 for men.

By comparison, the median age of those who tested positive for the illness was 63.

A deeper analysis of 481 of the deceased showed that almost 99 per cent of them were suffering from one or more medical condition before catching the virus. Some 48.6 per cent had three or more previous pathologies.

A total 73.8 per cent had had high blood pressure, 34 per cent had diabetes and 30.1 per cent had heart disease.

On being admitted to hospital, 76 per cent had a fever, 73 per cent had breathing difficulties, 40 per cent had a cough and 8 per cent had diarrhea
 
But as long as Qld can vote in 2 weeks ...
and mandatory....
Fines if you do not go to the slaughter house, too late for postal vote guys...
 
Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.

The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone
John Daley
Here are the three endgames Australia could pursue, and why we should choose the most radical

Nobody likes talking about the COVID-19 endgame, but we need to choose one. The appropriate interventions – public health, government spending, and freedom of movement – all depend on the endgame we choose.

The differences between endgames amount to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospital admissions, and deep and systemic impacts on Australia’s economy and society.

Many discussions are underestimating the likely political reactions when death counts rise.

They are also underestimating the economic and social consequences of an open-ended epidemic that will have enormous real-world impacts on small and medium businesses, as well as many not-for-profit organisations in every sector of the economy and society. We are not facing up to the social consequences if many close, and credit markets collapse.

We see three possible endgames.

None are attractive, but one is better than the others
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone
 
basilio said:
Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.

The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone
John Daley
Here are the three endgames Australia could pursue, and why we should choose the most radical

Nobody likes talking about the COVID-19 endgame, but we need to choose one. The appropriate interventions – public health, government spending, and freedom of movement – all depend on the endgame we choose.

The differences between endgames amount to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospital admissions, and deep and systemic impacts on Australia’s economy and society.

Many discussions are underestimating the likely political reactions when death counts rise.

They are also underestimating the economic and social consequences of an open-ended epidemic that will have enormous real-world impacts on small and medium businesses, as well as many not-for-profit organisations in every sector of the economy and society. We are not facing up to the social consequences if many close, and credit markets collapse.

We see three possible endgames.

None are attractive, but one is better than the others
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone
Click to expand...

I really can't see any end to this unless and untill an effective vaccine is produced.

The infection rate may fall in the meantime due t social isolation etc and then people will think it's all over, will start congregating again and the rate will rise once more and we go back a step.

Only a vaccine and a subsequent elimination of cases will result in justified public confidence to get back to business, and that could be months away. Hopefully it's sooner, but these things take time.
 
A little more levity, we need it
Leprechauns_Mar2020_25.jpg

https://babylonbee.com/news/leprechauns-giving-out-toilet-paper-this-year
"Ye'll get me pot o' toilet paper -- if ye can catch me, that is!" cackled one leprechaun as he hid near the end of a rainbow.
A woman named Karen immediately leaped out of a nearby bush and snagged him, demanding the very best, triple-ply toilet paper available and also asking to speak to the manager..
 
My :2twocents (from another thread, but has relevance):

Trendnomics said:
I think the media should be held to account... what do you think?

Yes - The media should be held accountable for under-utilising their large/effective platform and underplaying the risk posed to Australia. I'm not seeing the level of corporate or individual action truly needed to stop the rapid exponential spread of the disease, which would ultimately overwhelm the Australian health care system. This may partly be due to the fact that time lapsed exponential growth is fundamentally hard to grasp OR that the economy is more valuable than lives.

The major problems we are facing due to this virus:
  1. Almost 2.5 times more contagious and 30 times more fatal than the common seasonal flu
  2. A huge number of infected will require hospitalisation at the same time (estimated hospitalisation rates are between 15-20% of infected)
  3. Australia's hospital bed capacity is very very limited (we are only slightly above WHO recommendations - have a look at how we compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds) - for some of the sick there will be no safety net
  4. If you do get sick, you will be separated from your family and you could potential die a lonely death (family separation during these times should be avoided at all costs)
Personally I have pushed the nuclear button (been in Isolation since Tuesday 17/03/20) - due to my personal calculation findings (bed capacity vs spread rate). I have found that the health system in my city of residence, could potentially be overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks from now. Hence, if I contract the disease now and I add the average incubation period, plus the delayed onset of pneumonia, I could potentially be requiring treatment in a very very strained hospital system.

My recommendation to my extended family is simple - the window for action is closing, it's time to lock yourselves in - if your employer is unwilling or unable to allow you to work from home, then stay home and use your sick/annual leave.

My plan is to monitor the exponential growth (whilst being in isolation) for the next two weeks and to see if the path I predicted plays out - if there is a large reduced deviation I will reconsider my current stance.

This is a 1 in a 100 year event - please respect it.

(The above writing is my personal opinion only - Not to be used as advice)
Click to expand...
 
So I went to a client today who is a theatre nurse and does spend some time in the intensive care ward.

This woman is as tough as an old boot.

Frankly, she was super alarmed at the exponential trend of infections and ICU admissions and believes we are going to be in Northern Italy in short order.

It's just what she said and just reporting that.
 
SirRumpole said:
I really can't see any end to this unless and untill an effective vaccine is produced.

The infection rate may fall in the meantime due t social isolation etc and then people will think it's all over, will start congregating again and the rate will rise once more and we go back a step.

Only a vaccine and a subsequent elimination of cases will result in justified public confidence to get back to business, and that could be months away. Hopefully it's sooner, but these things take time.
Click to expand...
Vaccines are at least a year out. Life will be different as it use to be for a while.

I always ask the vaccine hopefuls : SARS from 2002 they been working on drugs and vaccine cures. 17 years later even with MERS there is nothing for coronavirus. Its a bit like HIV, has taken them decades but still no vaccine or cure. Influenza has been with us for centuries hence we now have vaccines. How long do you think a SAR-COV-2 vaccine will take to develop?? Biotech firms can talk all they want about sequencing the genome and making vaccine samples etc... but do you think we will be able to have a successful vaccine in a year? Given these same companies have failed to make vaccines for the original SARS and MERS coronaviruses???
 
qldfrog said:
I doubt a vaccine will be ready before a year and will avoid any first release
Click to expand...
I was listening to a podcast (interview with someone who claimed to be a legit expert in the field of viruses generally, albeit not this specific one) and they said that the big difficulty with developing vaccines is that it takes time to verify effectiveness or otherwise and there's no real way to speed that up.
 
Top