Exactly it could of been much worse
Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion
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You may be correct but at this stage it is only an assumption on your part.
While there is always lag time in the statistical information, the initial indications are it will be the unvaccinated who will be adversely impacted as per table below. In regard to vaccination status, see page 2 of the link below.
So while those who are vaccinated will or can be infected with Covid (logical if a large portion of the population is vaccinated and it well known breakthrough infections will occur) those who choose not to be vaccinated are likely to bear the brunt of it unfortunately - along with the medical and nursing staff who are to treat them but let's not concern ourselves with them. They are expendable - until you need them of course.
COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - weekly-reports
www.health.nsw.gov.au
You may be correct but at this stage it is only an assumption on your part.
While there is always lag time in the statistical information, the initial indications are it will be the unvaccinated who will be adversely impacted as per table below. In regard to vaccination status, see page 2 of the link below.
So while those who are vaccinated will or can be infected with Covid (logical if a large portion of the population is vaccinated and it well known breakthrough infections will occur) those who choose not to be vaccinated are likely to bear the brunt of it unfortunately - along with the medical and nursing staff who are to treat them but let's not concern ourselves with them. They are expendable - until you need them of course.
View attachment 134716
COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - weekly-reports
Gee, you are callous, "medical staff are expendable"
Four of my extended family are "expendable medical staff" I do believe they would disagree with that statement
Ah, so the sarcasm escaped you. That says a lot.
By the by, two of my children are nurses (Yep, ICU. Guess the condition of the patients who require such care) and that is how they feel about how they are being considered by the powers that be.
By the by, two of my children are nurses (Yep, ICU. Guess the condition of the patients who require such care) and that is how they feel about how they are being considered by the powers that be.
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Perhaps Belli should have added lots of emojis and exclamation points !!! in case the dark irony of his comments was lost.
The whole xxxxxxxx point about the challenge of runaway COVID infections is the breakdown of our health system as they attempt to cope with increasing infections which n addition undermine their capacity to deal with the situation.
!!!
!!! ?!?The unfortunate reality is a number of the medical and nursing profession will highly likely be infected despite full PPE in a number of areas. The AIHW did a health workforce study and across Australia in the nursing/midwife category there are 1.8 Full-Time Effective per 100,000 people. Not all of those work in hospitals or in major Metropolitan areas so that hits the number available should staff be required to isolate. I heard some 20 staff at Canberra Hospital were required to do that at one stage (likely to be a rolling situation.) It isn't easy to backfill those absences. A very, very difficult situation all round.
And it hits patients in other ways. My mate across the road is being treated for cancer. He was to be admitted for radiation therapy last Tuesday. It was cancelled. A Covid positive patient (asymptomatic) attended the consultation rooms of the specialist concerned so all were required to isolate. Admissions were a no-go as a result. It's not only headline stuff. It is these small unreported matters which also put a strain on the system and the people involved.
Anyway, take care all.
Certainly does say a lot, if you think it funny to be sarcastic about such things then you must have a dark sense of humour, I prefer not to tempt fate.
You also seem to believe that I take aim at "expendable medical staff" I definitely do not.
If you really read my posts you would understand that my gripe is with our incompetent medical leaders who place the hospital medical staff under all this pressure.
It has been shown OS that early intervention makes a Huge difference to hospitalisation rates yet here in OZ they haven't even bothered to encourage people to get some sunshine let alone give people some home treatment packs when confirmed with Covid.
Elderly folk dying are still dying in nursing homes, assuming the Media would announce it if it happened, why are they not all being given Vit D shots. Untold studies OS to show Vit D helps a Lot.
Driving me nuts reading about all this unnecessary sickness and deaths
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According to Todays Australian
Not sure how many were the AZ vaccine, but whatever the variety, it a pretty good outcome.
Since that same date, there have been 1170 deaths where the deceased had Covid (courtesy of COVID Live in OZ. )
So anyone who takes an interest in risk management would most likely come to the conclusion that getting vaccinated is an excellent risk reward outcome.
Mick
So, since the last death in August, 30 million doses have been administered with no (as yet ) deaths.
Not sure how many were the AZ vaccine, but whatever the variety, it a pretty good outcome.
Since that same date, there have been 1170 deaths where the deceased had Covid (courtesy of COVID Live in OZ. )
So anyone who takes an interest in risk management would most likely come to the conclusion that getting vaccinated is an excellent risk reward outcome.
Mick
Certainly does say a lot, if you think it funny to be sarcastic about such things then you must have a dark sense of humour, I prefer not to tempt fate.
You also seem to believe that I take aim at "expendable medical staff" I definitely do not.
If you really read my posts you would understand that my gripe is with our incompetent medical leaders who place the hospital medical staff under all this pressure.
It has been shown OS that early intervention makes a Huge difference to hospitalisation rates yet here in OZ they haven't even bothered to encourage people to get some sunshine let alone give people some home treatment packs when confirmed with Covid.
Elderly folk dying are still dying in nursing homes, assuming the Media would announce it if it happened, why are they not all being given Vit D shots. Untold studies OS to show Vit D helps a Lot.
Driving me nuts reading about all this unnecessary sickness and deaths
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Taking this at face value - it is a newspaper article - damn and blast. I had a feeling it could happen.
"Victoria’s healthcare system faces a looming staffing crisis at a critical time, with hundreds of staff in isolation and COVID-19 hospitalisations on the rise, as Melbourne doctors warn hospitals are already having to close crucial ICU beds."
"The state government confirmed about 700 healthcare workers were isolating after being exposed to the virus in the days before Christmas."
www.theage.com.au
"Victoria’s healthcare system faces a looming staffing crisis at a critical time, with hundreds of staff in isolation and COVID-19 hospitalisations on the rise, as Melbourne doctors warn hospitals are already having to close crucial ICU beds."
"The state government confirmed about 700 healthcare workers were isolating after being exposed to the virus in the days before Christmas."
Fears for hospital system as cases rise and staff availability falls
Victoria’s healthcare system faces a staffing crisis at a critical time when hundreds of staff are in isolation and COVID-19 hospitalisations are on the rise.
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Taking this at face value - it is a newspaper article - damn and blast. I had a feeling it could happen.
"Victoria’s healthcare system faces a looming staffing crisis at a critical time, with hundreds of staff in isolation and COVID-19 hospitalisations on the rise, as Melbourne doctors warn hospitals are already having to close crucial ICU beds."
"The state government confirmed about 700 healthcare workers were isolating after being exposed to the virus in the days before Christmas."
Fears for hospital system as cases rise and staff availability falls
Victoria’s healthcare system faces a staffing crisis at a critical time when hundreds of staff are in isolation and COVID-19 hospitalisations are on the rise.
I have great trouble with these types of articles.
They are generic , alarmist, but leave out a lot of data.
Firstly, of the 700 health care workers, how many are actually front line staff, as distinct from the army of non critical staff such as cleaners, cooks, admin staff, social workers, HR people, security staff etc.
Secondly, if you look at the figures released today, the the numbers have actually gone down for the week.
23 less in hospital, 13 less in ICU, and 1 less on ventillators.
Todays figures are 2108 cases , 361 in hospital. 71 in ICU and 42 on ventillators.
Indeed since the last peak in the pandemic, back in the middle of October when there were over 2000 cases on numerous days, the peak s
were
851 in Hospital , 163 in ICU and 106 on Ventillators.
It would be difficult to argue that there would not have been at least as many of the health care workers stood down because of exposure to the virus, as they would have been dealing with so many more cases in hospital.
And before someone chimes in and says that the figures have a lag time, given this outbreak increase started back in early December, so if there was going to be an increase in the hospitalisation, ICU and ventillators it should have been showing up by now.
The article in the Age goes on to say
Well if we look at the figures a fortnight ago , on December 11 they were as follows:
364 in hospital, 68 in ICU, and 29 on ventillators.
Thats is an increase in 3 hospitalisations, 3 less in ICU, and 13 more on ventillators.
That is not a steady rise of patients admitted to intensive car.
So many commentators wonder why people head to "fake news sites" instead of MSM.
Perhaps if some of the so called journalists took a little trouble to check up on some of the statements, they may have more credibility.
All of the figures I have used come from This site
Mick
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As an adjunct to what I have written above, according to The Guardian
One would assume that Victoria will be in a similar boat, as experience from overseas says this variant is more infectious, but less severe.
I should point out that the same site I used for the data above shows a somewhat different picture in NSW.
Todays figures, 6288 cases, 388 in hospital, 52 in ICU, 14 on ventilators.
Two weeks ago the figures were 804 cases , 168 in hospital , 21 in ICU, and 9 on ventilators, so indeed they have had an increase.
If we compare Victoria to NSW, despite having a big increase in cases since the 14th December, NSW numbers show an 8% higher number of hospitalisations, but about 1/3rd the number in ICU, and about half the number on ventilators.
Mick
Don't know how accurate the statement is, or whether the Guardian journalists reported it accurately, but without any dissenting evidence will have to take it on face value.
One would assume that Victoria will be in a similar boat, as experience from overseas says this variant is more infectious, but less severe.
I should point out that the same site I used for the data above shows a somewhat different picture in NSW.
Todays figures, 6288 cases, 388 in hospital, 52 in ICU, 14 on ventilators.
Two weeks ago the figures were 804 cases , 168 in hospital , 21 in ICU, and 9 on ventilators, so indeed they have had an increase.
If we compare Victoria to NSW, despite having a big increase in cases since the 14th December, NSW numbers show an 8% higher number of hospitalisations, but about 1/3rd the number in ICU, and about half the number on ventilators.
Mick
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Great short podcast.
I agree that most the measures we are doing, is all theatre.
Like going to a restaurant. Wear a mask while walking to your table. Take off mask while eating. Put mask back on when leaving.
Same as flying. I flew from Melbourne to Brisbane a few months ago
Wear masks at airport.
Board flight, wear mask.
Offered refreshments/coffee in flight, take off mask for over 1 hour
Decent into Brisbane, mask back on
At Brisbane airport, wear mask
All theatre
I agree that most the measures we are doing, is all theatre.
Like going to a restaurant. Wear a mask while walking to your table. Take off mask while eating. Put mask back on when leaving.
Same as flying. I flew from Melbourne to Brisbane a few months ago
Wear masks at airport.
Board flight, wear mask.
Offered refreshments/coffee in flight, take off mask for over 1 hour
Decent into Brisbane, mask back on
At Brisbane airport, wear mask
All theatre
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Protection and waning of natural and hybrid COVID-19 immunity - medRxiv
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infection with SARS-CoV-2 provides substantial natural immunity against reinfection. Recent studies have shown strong waning of the immunity provided by the BNT162b2 vaccine. The time course of natural and hybrid immunity is unknown.
METHODS Data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections were extracted from the Israeli Ministry of Health database for the period August to September 2021 regarding all persons previously infected or vaccinated. We compared infection rates as a function of time since the last immunity-conferring event using Poisson regression, adjusting for possible confounding factors.
RESULTS Confirmed infection rates increased according to time elapsed since the last immunity-conferring event in all cohorts. For unvaccinated previously infected individuals they increased from 10.5 per 100,000 risk-days for those previously infected 4-6 months ago to 30.2 for those previously infected over a year ago. For individuals receiving a single dose following prior infection they increased from 3.7 per 100,000 person days among those vaccinated in the past two months to 11.6 for those vaccinated over 6 months ago. For vaccinated previously uninfected individuals the rate per 100,000 person days increased from 21.1 for persons vaccinated within the first two months to 88.9 for those vaccinated more than 6 months ago.
CONCLUSIONS Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection.
Protective immunity after recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection - The Lancet
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is now better controlled in settings with access to fast and reliable testing and highly effective vaccination rollouts. Several studies have found that people who recovered from COVID-19 and tested seropositive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have low rates of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. There are still looming questions surrounding the strength and duration of such protection compared with that from vaccination.
We reviewed studies published in PubMed from inception to Sept 28, 2021, and found well conducted biological studies showing protective immunity after infection (panel). Furthermore, multiple epidemiological and clinical studies, including studies during the recent period of predominantly delta (B.1.617.2) variant transmission, found that the risk of repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased by 80·5–100% among those who had had COVID-19 previously (panel). The reported studies were large and conducted throughout the world. Another laboratory-based study that analysed the test results of 9119 people with previous COVID-19 from Dec 1, 2019, to Nov 13, 2020, found that only 0·7% became reinfected. In a study conducted at the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, OH, USA, those who had not previously been infected had a COVID-19 incidence rate of 4·3 per 100 people, whereas those who had previously been infected had a COVID-19 incidence rate of 0 per 100 people. Furthermore, a study conducted in Austria found that the frequency of hospitalisation due to a repeated infection was five per 14 840 (0·03%) people and the frequency of death due to a repeated infection was one per 14 840 (0·01%) people. Due to the strong association and biological basis for protection, clinicians should consider counselling recovered patients on their risk for reinfection and document previous infection status in medical records.
Although those studies show that protection from reinfection is strong and persists for more than 10 months of follow-up, it is unknown how long protective immunity will truly last. Many systemic viral infections, such as measles, confer long-term, if not lifelong, immunity, whereas others, such as influenza, do not (due to changes in viral genetics). We are limited by the length of current reported follow-up data to know with certainty the expected duration that previous infection will protect against COVID-19. Encouragingly, authors of a study conducted among recovered individuals who had experienced mild SARS-CoV-2 infection reported that mild infection induced a robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune memory in humans.
It important to note that antibodies are incomplete predictors of protection. After vaccination or infection, many mechanisms of immunity exist within an individual not only at the antibody level, but also at the level of cellular immunity. It is known that SARS-CoV-2 infection induces specific and durable T-cell immunity, which has multiple SARS-CoV-2 spike protein targets (or epitopes) as well as other SARS-CoV-2 protein targets. The broad diversity of T-cell viral recognition serves to enhance protection to SARS-CoV-2 variants, with recognition of at least the alpha (B.1.1.7), beta (B.1.351), and gamma (P.1) variants of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers have also found that people who recovered from SARS-CoV infection in 2002–03 continue to have memory T cells that are reactive to SARS-CoV proteins 17 years after that outbreak. Additionally, a memory B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 evolves between 1·3 and 6·2 months after infection, which is consistent with longer-term protection.
Some people who have recovered from COVID-19 might not benefit from COVID-19 vaccination. In fact, one study found that previous COVID-19 was associated with increased adverse events following vaccination with the Comirnaty BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer–BioNTech). In addition, there are rare reports of serious adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination. In Switzerland, residents who can prove they have recovered from a SARS-CoV-2 infection through a positive PCR or other test in the past 12 months are considered equally protected as those who have been fully vaccinated.
Although longer follow-up studies are needed, clinicians should remain optimistic regarding the protective effect of recovery from previous infection. Community immunity to control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic can be reached with the acquired immunity due to either previous infection or vaccination. Acquired immunity from vaccination is certainly much safer and preferred. Given the evidence of immunity from previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, however, policy makers should consider recovery from previous SARS-CoV-2 infection equal to immunity from vaccination for purposes related to entry to public events, businesses, and the workplace, or travel requirements.
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There is a need to wait for the December figures but in the meantime:
June 2021
September 2021
About a 10,000 increase in Registered Nurses from June to September.
June 2021
September 2021
About a 10,000 increase in Registered Nurses from June to September.
Didn't a bunch get fired?
While it is a newspaper report from late October, it states that:
"A Royal Melbourne hospital spokesperson said eight staff had chosen not to get vaccinated and had resigned, a further eight had their employment terminated after stating they would not get the jab, and another 35 staff had been stood down."
Apparently they were not all nurses and includes administrative staff. Royal Melbourne has 11,000 personnel accordng to the article.
Royal Melbourne hospital down 51 staff who won’t comply with Covid vaccine mandate
Those failing to be immunised represent less than 1% of workforce and include nurses, ward clerks and administration workers
I don't know what the current status is or whether a similar situation in terms of percentages applies to other hospitals in either Victoria or other States.
