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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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moXJO said:
Sorry must have deleted half the post.
Did they identify omicron as the cause of fatalities?
Where did this chart link from?
Click to expand...
The detailed data are found here.
An excellent read, however, is from Fraser Nelson at The Spectator, which uses snippets.
On the basis of what's known to date, if you are double vaxxed or previously infected, then severe illness/ hospitalisation is a low probability, and death may be as low as a tenth of what it was under Delta, depending on age.
 
Hot on the heels of Facebook adfmitting in court documents that its Fact Checking is nothing but opinion, it has copped a broadside from the British Medical Journal about its "factChecking" of BMJ articles.
I guess its another case of the US multinationals sticking together.

From WUWT

Mick
 

The Lancet​

​

Effect of early treatment with fluvoxamine on risk of emergency care and hospitalisation among patients with COVID-19: the TOGETHER randomised, platform clinical trial​


Summary​

Background​

Recent evidence indicates a potential therapeutic role of fluvoxamine for COVID-19. In the TOGETHER trial for acutely symptomatic patients with COVID-19, we aimed to assess the efficacy of fluvoxamine versus placebo in preventing hospitalisation defined as either retention in a COVID-19 emergency setting or transfer to a tertiary hospital due to COVID-19.​

​

Methods​

This placebo-controlled, randomised, adaptive platform trial done among high-risk symptomatic Brazilian adults confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 included eligible patients from 11 clinical sites in Brazil with a known risk factor for progression to severe disease. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either fluvoxamine (100 mg twice daily for 10 days) or placebo (or other treatment groups not reported here). The trial team, site staff, and patients were masked to treatment allocation. Our primary outcome was a composite endpoint of hospitalisation defined as either retention in a COVID-19 emergency setting or transfer to tertiary hospital due to COVID-19 up to 28 days post-random assignment on the basis of intention to treat. Modified intention to treat explored patients receiving at least 24 h of treatment before a primary outcome event and per-protocol analysis explored patients with a high level adherence (>80%). We used a Bayesian analytic framework to establish the effects along with probability of success of intervention compared with placebo. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04727424) and is ongoing.​

​

Findings​

The study team screened 9803 potential participants for this trial. The trial was initiated on June 2, 2020, with the current protocol reporting randomisation to fluvoxamine from Jan 20 to Aug 5, 2021, when the trial arms were stopped for superiority. 741 patients were allocated to fluvoxamine and 756 to placebo. The average age of participants was 50 years (range 18–102 years); 58% were female. The proportion of patients observed in a COVID-19 emergency setting for more than 6 h or transferred to a teritary hospital due to COVID-19 was lower for the fluvoxamine group compared with placebo (79 [11%] of 741 vs 119 [16%] of 756); relative risk [RR] 0·68; 95% Bayesian credible interval [95% BCI]: 0·52–0·88), with a probability of superiority of 99·8% surpassing the prespecified superiority threshold of 97·6% (risk difference 5·0%). Of the composite primary outcome events, 87% were hospitalisations. Findings for the primary outcome were similar for the modified intention-to-treat analysis (RR 0·69, 95% BCI 0·53–0·90) and larger in the per-protocol analysis (RR 0·34, 95% BCI, 0·21–0·54). There were 17 deaths in the fluvoxamine group and 25 deaths in the placebo group in the primary intention-to-treat analysis (odds ratio [OR] 0·68, 95% CI: 0·36–1·27). There was one death in the fluvoxamine group and 12 in the placebo group for the per-protocol population (OR 0·09; 95% CI 0·01–0·47). We found no significant differences in number of treatment emergent adverse events among patients in the fluvoxamine and placebo groups.​

​

Interpretation​

Treatment with fluvoxamine (100 mg twice daily for 10 days) among high-risk outpatients with early diagnosed COVID-19 reduced the need for hospitalisation defined as retention in a COVID-19 emergency setting or transfer to a tertiary hospital.​
​


.
 
Very interesting...

How the media has been playing us. Keeping up the 'fear factor'. I think we will see Omicron as our way to get/build up natural/herd immunity and get us out of this mess.


Omicron coverage reveals how the establishment, media keep us scared​


In March 2020, a profile of the typical COVID victim emerged from Italy. The average decedent was 80 years old, with approximately three comorbidities, such as heart disease, obesity or diabetes. The young had little to worry about; the survival rate for the vast majority of the population was well over 99 percent.​
​
That portrait never significantly changed. The early assessments of COVID out of Italy have remained valid through today. And so it will prove with the Omicron variant.​
​
The data out of South Africa, after five weeks of Omicron spread, suggest that Omicron should be a cause for celebration, not fear. Its symptoms are mild to nonexistent in the majority of the infected, especially the vaccinated; hospitalization rates are over nine times lower than for previous COVID strains; deaths are negligible. That assessment will only be confirmed as the United States and other Western countries gather their own data on Omicron.​
​
Yet the public health establishment and the media are working overtime to gin up Omicron hysteria. The official response to the Omicron variant provides a case study in the deliberate manufacture of fear.​
​
More on link below....​


 
Vinay Prasad

Very, very good points. Probably his best summary so far.

The more boosters you get, does it really help? Myocarditis increases, is it worth it for under 40's ?

​

FDA Vaccine Officials Resign & Now Write Op Eds​

A Play-by-Play Summary of Politics & Boosters​









.​
 
Omicron is more infectious but the UK experience tells us this:
Summary
To assess differences in the risk of hospitalisation between the Omicron variant of concern (1) and the Delta variant, we analysed data from all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England with last test specimen dates between 1st and 14th December inclusive.​
... Overall, we find evidence of a reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections, averaging over all cases in the study period.​
... These reductions must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron, due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection. A previous infection reduces the risk of any hospitalisation by approximately 50% (Table 2) and the risk of a hospital stay of 1+ days by 61% (95%CI:55-65%) (before adjustments for under ascertainment of reinfections).​
...In broad terms, our estimates suggest that individuals who have received at least 2 vaccine doses remain substantially protected against hospitalisation, even if protection against infection has been largely lost against the Omicron variant (4,5).​

I have only highlighted key findings above as the Summary was lengthy.
Overall the picture for hospitalisations and death from Omicron in the UK appear at nowhere the levels they were for Delta and previous variants of concern. On the flipside, even low percentages can collapse the hospital system if infectivity continues at its present exponential rate in Australia.
 

Masks for Christmas after COVID case roams for 11 days

People in Perth and Peel must wear masks in all indoor venues -- except homes -- over Christmas after an unvaccinated French backpacker went nightclubbing while unknowingly infected with COVID-19.
thewest.com.au

You can be a triple vaccinated Australian and not be allowed in to WA. You can get sacked from your job in WA for not being vaccinated. But an unvaccinated French backpacker gets in no problem and the government can't seem to explain why?
 
Our PM has proven to be a donkey throughout the pandemic, with States leading the charge in terms of keeping infections in check prior to Omicron's arrival.
His statement's yesterday attracted some interesting social media attention, over and above MSM. What is a bit perplexing is his so called reliance on medical advice, which is now thrown out the window. The international medical advice is to maintain all the original standards relating to minimising spread and vaccinate as much as possible. As I said in an earlier post today, low hospitalisation rates combined with high infectivity can collapse hospital systems. Emphasising this point is what is now underway in the UK and shown below in the 7-day moving average of hospitalisations:


So that's the bad news. The good news to date is that mechanical ventilation numbers are still on the decline, indicating that severe illness is less problematic, but only if you are double vaxxed. I will post a chart next week to show if that situation has changed.
 
DB008 said:
WA is just delaying the inevitable. QLd is finding out the slow way, WA even slower...

We are all going to catch Covid-19 one way or another. Part and parcel of living in a global community and a highly infectious virus. That's life.
Click to expand...
Yep

Bring.
It.
On.

The healthy, face it.

The vulnerable, protect yourselves.

The pu55ies, man the **** up.
 
DB008 said:
We are all going to catch Covid-19 one way or another. Part and parcel of living in a global community and a highly infectious virus. That's life.
Click to expand...
Whilst true, the real lesson humans need to learn is that the "global community" bit is the actual weapon of mass destruction when it comes to this sort of thing.

Covid-19 might not wipe us out but in due course something will come along that does and if we haven't put in place suitable measures by that time then we're stuffed.

Sad though it may seem, the idea that someone can be pretty much anywhere on earth within 100 hours just isn't sustainable.
 
Dominic Perrottet has woken up on the effects of a totally out of control Omicron infection on NSW.

Dominic Perrottet has finally realised that ‘letting it rip’ comes at too high a cost – for all of us​

Anne Davies



The pro-business premier eased restrictions and ‘opened up’ the NSW economy but staff are ill or isolating while customers are staying at home

Perhaps NSW premier Dominic Perrottet has sensed the public mood, finally. It’s one of worry. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Thu 23 Dec 2021 19.14 AEDT
First published on Thu 23 Dec 2021 19.02 AED


New South Wales’s laissez-faire premier, Dominic Perrottet, has found himself mugged by reality on the cusp of Christmas.
Here are the grim statistics that tell us what is happening in NSW: 5,715 new cases reported on Thursday; 1,500 health workers sick or isolating (leaving the health system even more stressed); rising Covid cases in ICU and nearly 150,000 people a day lining up to get tested.

Yes, some of these are travellers, who are required to be tested by other states. But most are people who worry they have been exposed and are now wondering whether they should attend Christmas Day with parents or grandparents.

In the three weeks since the Omicron variant was first detected here on 28 November, Perrottet has been telling us to go out and spend, head to the pub, get back to normal.

Dominic Perrottet has finally realised that ‘letting it rip’ comes at too high a cost | Anne Davies

The pro-business premier eased restrictions and ‘opened up’ the NSW economy but staff are ill or isolating while customers are staying at home
www.theguardian.com
 

And as unvaxed people were still restricted for most of this time, all of this happened in those who are vaccinated
 
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