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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Knobby22 said:
Only if you believe the Brazilian and USA figures. I certainly don't.
Click to expand...
But you believe Spain?
You know so called covid death in Europe include basically any death where people wrre tested positive for covid even if it may be unrelated?
I am not going to play the Rederob but seriously, you trust figures which suits your scenario and not the ones which does not?
Just think about it
FYI, these figures are from the socialist paper: le Monde a good mondialist leftist scaremonging paper
So that is the new movement, when everything will be over, blaming all car accident on covid in places not fitting with prejudiced idea..
A bit disappointed from you Knobby22, usually a bit more realistic than others
Dyor if you want to, otherwise just follow whatever propaganda suits you.i do not personally care, damage is done for me and i will not suffer much more
 

You can't take a snapshot and extrapolate from that without paying attention to trends.

Yes, Brazil and the US are lower than Spain and Italy. But the latter two countries were badly affected earlier on in the pandemic when not so much was known as is now, but they took the necessary action and have to a large extent got it under control.

I follow the Worldometer website figures daily and this is a snap shot from 15th June, last week and today. So we can compare trends over 9 weeks - 15th June to today) compared to over the last week.

I'll put the table in a post that follows this.

You can clearly see that over the last 9 weeks, Spain has only recorded 30 deaths per million and Italy 14 deaths per million, while the USA had 142 and Brazil 269.

Just over the last week, Spain had 2 deaths per million compared to the USA 21 and Brazil 33. Unfortunately I don't have figures for Italy from a week ago, but they have improved even better than Spain if I recall correctly.

If you look at the trend in deaths per week, The average over the last 9 weeks compared to last week has increased for the USA (15.7 to 21) and Brazil (29.8 to 33), but dropped for Spain (3.3 to 2). Italy too has dropped, but I don't have the figures.

If the current trends continue (using last week's trend), it will take only 6 more days for the US to exceed the same overall number of deaths per million as Spain (and under 5 days to exceed Italy's). Brazil should blow through Spain's figure in just over 4 more days.

So in a weeks time, with these trends, the US and Brazil will have exceeded Italy and Spain (and many other countries that were affected badly at the start of the pandemic), but will still be increasing or at best stabilising their death rates and will still be in no position (except for a few states) to reopen the economy and schools (unless they show blatant disregard for safety), whereas Spain and Italy will remain with a negligible death rate and can continue to safely open up for business.

Sorry for the cockup with the table layout, but for some reason a space is a different size that other characters when using a monospaced font. Doesn't make sense.
 
appreciate that approach and agree with it, the focus here and elsewhere on number of infected is largly irrelevant;
Where I would disagree is that I believe there is a pool of fragile people whose death is precipitated then the actual death rate decrease as this is just a shift earlier of what would have happened with /without covid within months.
I might be wrong of course but this is what has happened in France where infection is even increasing now, so will be interesting to look at that very table in 3 months time, do you have the same figures for the swedish counter model
anyway, will leave it here and we will discuss again in a year or 2 hopefully without the " I do not trust their figure" answer to any annoying truth one way or the other
And to be honest trusting figures here in the west is pretty hard, less than in china, but not by much
 
Come on, don't be a dupe.

Brazil testing is minimal.

I've already gone through how the USA testing is incorrect..

If if you haven't got insurance and are poor why would you get tested?

If you die at home are without being tested then you are not counted.

Also if you in certain states such as Florida and you die with coronavirus but have a pre existing condition such as heart disease and you die due to heart failure then coronavirus is not considered the cause of death.

You are marked as dying from a heart attack. The fact you had coronavirus and were on a ventilator doesn't matter.

You can see the real rate by looking at the death increase which is considerable.

Spain is dodgy as is much of Europe (not the Scandinavian and Germanic countries and Belgium). Even the UK has missed counting the dead in nursing homes.

You are tech, you know the rule
-rubbish in rubbish out.
 
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Has the corona virus situation in Victoria, caused a greater financial and human cost, than the bushfires @rederob ?
Just wondering, you seem to be all over responsiblity and accountabilty.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Sweden has had a huge decline in its death rate most certainly and nobody would dispute that.

The problem is they killed rather a lot of people in order to achieve it, that's the major downside to it.
Click to expand...
I think the main issue will be, if there is a residual component to the virus, the Swedes may not be high fiveing each other.
Untill it is shown there is no residual component, I still favour not getting it, everyone to their own though.
If people dont care, just put your hand up for one of the vaccine programes, you can get paid and help allay peoples fears.
 
True, and I seen studies showing less than 7% of them have caught it. They must be pretty good at practicing social distancing.

I know they banned gatherings of more than 50 people and do extensive testing so it's not like they did nothing.

It's good to see they have it under control now. Gives me hope for Melbourne.
 

Afraid not Andrews is coping it seriously from the media and Coalition both are building pressure on the hotel fiasco while he is trying to contain behaviour that every man and his dog seem hell bent on breaking the rules in Victoria.

Mean while the age care homes have been a disaster Australia wide yet the Coalition have so far dodged the outrage.
 

World’s First COVID-19 Vaccine to Be Launched by Russia on August 10-12
​

Russia is all set to register a coronavirus vaccine by August 10-12, paving the way for what would be the first official approval of an inoculation against COVID-19 in the world, according to a Bloomberg report.

In a recent televised meeting of officials with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that the vaccine was expected to receive conditional registration in August and production was likely to begin in September. The vaccine developed by the Gamalei Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology (Moscow, Russia) could be approved for civilian use within three to seven days of its registration, said a person familiar with the process to Bloomberg.

Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine is scheduled to enter Phase 3 trials in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Despite its developers claiming the vaccine to be safe and potentially the first to be administered to the public, there is concern over the absence of published data and its fast paced development. Russian health professionals will be administered the COVID19 vaccine before the completion of its clinical trials, according to the Bloomberg report. Russia is also conducting clinical trials of a second COVID19 vaccine, while two more vaccines are expected to be soon granted permission for testing.

“The key requirements for a vaccine are its proven effectiveness and safety so everything needs to be done very carefully and accurately,” Putin reportedly said at the end of the meeting with officials. “Our confidence in the vaccine must be absolute.”​


 
Well that is good, it shouldnt be party specific, when handing out brick bats.
 
any idea how an economic crash could effect those who have debts to pay ?
the potential for deflation inflation etc, lower wages ....
 
The longer term effects of COVID on survivors is still being teased out. This is particularly the case of people who end up with a severe bout.

What are the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19?

For many who contract the novel coronavirus, the manifestations of the disease tend to the mild and moderate, with improvement in a couple of weeks. But for those who survive COVID-19 after intubation and a long hospital stay, the health ramifications may last long after they are discharged.
https://news.umiamihealth.org/en/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19/
 
wayneL said:
Well duh, @basilio

Same with any respiratory disease such as influenza.

Enough of the project fear BS, please!
Click to expand...

Enough of the BS denial Wayne..
I'm not making any of this up.
It isn't some macho bravado or "she'll be right mate" rubbish.
There is plenty of evidence from doctors and hospitals who are treating COVID patients of substantial long term consequences of the disease amongst people who have been hospitalised.
Recognising that fact is a critical part of deciding how much effort should be put into preventing the spread of the disease.
Ignoring it is BS denial.
 

Basilo, Wayne is correct. There are thousands of Australians that have to deal with the aftermath of diseases and viruses after they recover, that IS LIFE.

I will give you a short run down so you understand my stance on the current situation

1. encephalitis herpes - 3months in a coma, age 19, body weight before hand 80kg (exercise kept me alive), coming out of the coma 47kg. _ Yes it sucks, no child hood memories (think about that, you cannot remember the pets you had as a child or even your own name), cannot walk or talk, but hey, I survived better than most that get it (well they die).
2. Myasthenia Gravis (Myasthenia gravis is a chronic autoimmune, neuromuscular disease that causes weakness in the skeletal muscles that worsens after periods of activity and improves after periods of rest. These muscles are responsible for functions involving breathing and moving parts of the body, including the arms and legs.)- age 28, read about this one, nasty, diagnosis, 12months to live. F-k that sucked, back into a wheel chair, cannot talk or walk correctly.
Outcome : 18hours operation, remove 6kg of thymus mass gland from body, wake up sore but can see again and over the next few days can walk again.
3. Meningitis, here we go again, back into a coma, this time only a couple of months, might have been a complication from point 1.

Aside from that I have been totally devoid of hair since I was 13 years old :
Alopecia areata occurs when the immune system attacks hair follicles and may be brought on by severe stress.

Try growing up as a teenager without hair, people look at you strange, think you have cancer or believe you are skin head.
Outcome 30 years later : saved a pile of money on haircuts

So what is long term consequences :
Lots, have to deal with a huge range of complications, from working environments to accepting I might not ever get to 50 years old, but again such is life. I am still alive
Benefits, I see the world different to others, I have empathy, understand and conviction and the willingness to fight for life, but accept death (been there several times, and before anyone askes there is no white light at the end of the tunnel, sort of).

That is my life in short, so can we all stop trying to save everyone and just appreciate life while we have it.

Also like to ad, I have to deal with cronic depression and mania every day after what happened above, it drives me nuts, but I am still alive and thankful to my parents and the doctors that have kept me alive.

It is only the due respect of them, that my depression does not overwhelm me and suicide is the easy option.

Life is complicated
 
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