Convinced nothing works

[Grinder]

LOL,

Only last week i commented on how XJO's on the ASX aren't too bad only to be tripped up yesterday with a half baked spread with way too much negative theta (the WOTM short leg was a problem i chickened out).

Time to scale back on the ASX i think and start getting accustomed to early starts.

IMO It's a must if you want to trade seriously. I fought it for such a long time & regret not changing over sooner.

Perhaps it lies in risk management but I'm not convinced there is such a thing. Its a buzz word in my opinion that doesnt really mean anything. If there is a risk management system that works over time on a 50/50 win/lose ratio.... show me it.

Only you can figure that out yourself. I attribute risk mangement as the single reason to why I trade profitably now. Im a risk manger 1st & options trader 2nd.

happy to see carmen as the august girl. nice.

 

[orix]

Sorry. Vol [implied or stat] exhibits different sylized facts to financial time series.
Vol tend to vary within a fixed range [weakly stationary] and mean reverts, which stock prices do not [non stationary data].

Greeks are part of risk management

If you believe your statements, don't trade

Share price can be converted into stationary data through differencing. What is your point?..... Do you hold one form of pure data over another or what?

Options as a whole are part of risk management. The underlying share is part of risk management... not trading at all is part of risk management.... everything and nothing (to quote Wayne)....

 

[mazzatelli]

Share price can be converted into stationary data through differencing. What is your point?..... Do you hold one form of pure data over another or what?

Options as a whole are part of risk management. The underlying share is part of risk management... not trading at all is part of risk management.... everything and nothing (to quote Wayne)....

Vol is stationary as well as having clusters, asymmetry and continuous. This can be modelled.

When you apply transformation to non stat data [log/power/differencing] it's to filter trends and seasonal equations, before transforming it back. The time series itself is not stationary in variance.

Options can be traded as an asset class in itself.

WTF are you talking about?

 

[orix]

Vol is stationary as well as having clusters, asymmetry and continuous. This can be modelled.

When you apply transformation to non stat data [log/power/differencing] it's to filter trends and seasonal equations, before transforming it back. The time series itself is not stationary.

Options can be traded as an asset class in itself.

WTF are you talking about?

If you buy index puts against a long portfolio position you are hedging against downside and as such are actively involved in "risk management". Is that really hard to understand???????

 

[mazzatelli]

I am talking about risk management of trading options [not using options for risk management], hence the reference to Greeks, which relates to your "risk management system that works over time on a 50/50 win/lose ratio" rant a few posts ago.

What is the point of this thread?

 

[orix]

I am talking about risk management of trading options [not using options for risk management], hence the reference to Greeks, which relates to your "risk management system that works over time on a 50/50 win/lose ratio" rant a few posts ago.

What is the point of this thread?

Stop posting if you see no point to this thread..... And stay of the glue.....

 

[Timmy]

... And stay of the glue.....

Welcome to ASF Orix - we don't encourage this sort of response to other members, no more please.

 

[nunthewiser]

Stop posting if you see no point to this thread..... And stay of the glue.....

LOL

funny place forums ......ppl get abused for donating there hard earned knowledge

funny that

 

[trainspotter]

Ha ha Nun .... you betcha brother !

 

[nunthewiser]

Ha ha Nun .... you betcha brorther !

LOL hiya trainspotter .long time no see

thanks for a lovely arvo and i owe u a crownie !

 

[trainspotter]

LMAO ... yeppers, it has been a while indeed ... nuffin like catching up with the same minded people and having a quiet ale or three in the arvo. Beautiful day ... fridge full ... sharemarket tips to be discussed ... all good. I owe you a Bourbon. The first of many. Sorry about cutting our meeting short ... kids to be picked up etc. You know the drill.

 

[Mr J]

LOL

funny place forums ......ppl get abused for donating there hard earned knowledge

funny that

Orix is clearly in an emotional state, so we can't expect him/her to act rationally and be objective.

If historic volatility is at an all time low.... so what. It doesnt mean that volatility will turn around and move higher (it may go even lower).

Based on the data (that it is an all-time low), probability suggests that it will likely rise over time. The issue isn't the situation, but how you trade it.

Sounds crazy but nearly everyone is wrong half the time so how can you go wrong?

I would guess that most people are wrong most of the time, and you can go wrong by being one of them.

Short term (and to an extent long term) sharemarket movements are so full of noise and chaos i dont believe the key lies with trading greeks or trying to predict price fluctuations.

The bigger picture is the sum of its parts. A chaotic shorterm does not create a predictable longterm. You're just under the illusion that the shorterm is chaotic because you don't understand it. It's no less 'predictable' than the longterm, and many people make a living off of it.

Perhaps it lies in risk management but I'm not convinced there is such a thing. Its a buzz word in my opinion that doesnt really mean anything.

You utilise it whether you know it or not. Do you look before you cross the street? Do you lock you door when you leave the house? Most do, some don't. Those that don't will often suffer the consequences. It's no different with trading.

If there is a risk management system that works over time on a 50/50 win/lose ratio.... show me it.

Sure, get 2:1 on your trade. The key to trading is to risk a sensible portion of your capital on a situation that provides a risk to reward that outperforms the probabilities of that situation.

As for whether trading is a bunch of BS, well consider the source. It sounds like you're losing money - who are you losing it to?

 

[wayneL]

I agree with J, Orix either wants to justify failure or is trolling... or both.

Like any trading, trading options requires a positive mathematical expectancy. None of us trading anything can overcome the cruelty of maths.

The sum of winning trades has to exceed the sum of losing trades in sufficient qunatity to make it worthwhile. All obvious stuff.

The problem with options is how they are promoted and taught. This is highlighted in the Youtube I did.

All of the well known and heavily marketed options courses are total rubbish and promote the totally wrong thinking in how to have long term success with options. They appeal to people's greed and have you believing there is some "secret" that if you just give them $5,000 for, you'll be a certain millionaire by next month.

When the reality hits, the instrument is blamed, the market makers... anybody but themselves. Anything, rather than doing the apprenticeship and the hard yards to succeed at what is a complicated business.

Orix does raise good points that do deserve good answers. His problem is that when they are given, he doesn't want to hear.

The volatility issue being a case in point. He regurgitates the seminar clown line, which he rightly questions, but when offered a different and more professional (and usable) view on volatility, he doesn't want to know.

That's OK, he's looking for reinforcement. If that's what he wants, he'll find it.

 

[tech/a]

If you cant profit in anything you do Trading/Property/Art/Coins/Business/Love/Weight loss/Smoking/
you have 3 choices.
(1) Do nothing
(2) Keep doing the same thing until someone else does something.
(3) Do something about it!

 

[orix]

Winning trades don't have to exceed losing trades if, obviously, you are making more money on your winners than you are losing money on your losers.....
As for the more professional view on volatility.... what was it?... that volatility mean reverts? If i have no idea when that will happen how am i to use that information. I am certain that if you backtest a system that shorts when volatility is high and goes long when volatility is low it will lose money. Prove me wrong.....
Everyone has jumped to the conclusion that i have recently lost money (i haven't traded in two years) or been duped by some bonehead seminar (now thats funny).

 

[sammy84]

LOL hiya trainspotter .long time no see

thanks for a lovely arvo and i owe u a crownie !

LMAO ... yeppers, it has been a while indeed ... nuffin like catching up with the same minded people and having a quiet ale or three in the arvo. Beautiful day ... fridge full ... sharemarket tips to be discussed ... all good. I owe you a Bourbon. The first of many. Sorry about cutting our meeting short ... kids to be picked up etc. You know the drill.

Get a room you two!

 

[wayneL]

Winning trades don't have to exceed losing trades if, obviously, you are making more money on your winners than you are losing money on your losers.....

Well you have a problem reading detail... apparently.

The sum of winning trades has to exceed the sum of losing trades in sufficient qunatity to make it worthwhile.

If the rest of your post is true, it seems you are simply trolling.

 

[Mr J]

If i have no idea when that will happen how am i to use that information

Which only proves that you can't do it, not that others can't. Maybe nothing works for you, but much works for many others.

Prove me wrong.....

Prove yourself wrong, or just don't worry about it. If you're convinced that one can't trade profitably, it's not up to anyone else to prove you wrong.

Everyone has jumped to the conclusion that i have recently lost money

If you were trading well, you wouldn't have started this thread. The suggestion that nothing works are not the words of someone successful. I do not know whether you're referring to trading the market in general, or just shorterm or options. It doesn't really matter though.

 

[orix]

Well you have a problem reading detail... apparently.



If the rest of your post is true, it seems you are simply trolling.

Eh? the red highlights aren't helping. I assume you mean sum total in dollar terms which is not what you said....
Why am i deemed to be trolling if i haven't traded recently?.....

 

[wayneL]

I think it's impossible to make money from windows and doors.

Sash, sliding, French doors... it's all ****e over the long run.

:batman: