Contrarian Investment Journal

[tech/a]

Cam
This is very good analysis
I'm impressed with your ability to read the story in the chart

Just a couple of things
Low volume bars in consolidations and those highlighted as
Possible entry points would NOT be an entry for me .
They are just an INDICATION that the consolidation is not
Under attack from supply.

Many indications are not confirmed
If you see something that ALTERS the state of play then
You see an opportunity

To the right hand side
A filling of the gap and a continuation through it particularly
In ONE bar would indicate a change in sentiment.
My stop is now a couple of ticks below the gap.

Good job Cam

 

[Cam019]

Cam
This is very good analysis
I'm impressed with your ability to read the story in the chart

Thanks for the positive comments tech. It's good to know I am on the right track with my education.

Just a couple of things
Low volume bars in consolidations and those highlighted as
Possible entry points would NOT be an entry for me .
They are just an INDICATION that the consolidation is not
Under attack from supply.

Interesting. So tech, if you didn't have a position before the consolidation immediately following the high volume, down, volume/range control bar in the BIG chart, there is no entry signal for YOU before the first gap up, correct?

 

[tech/a]

Correct

Lots of things I like that INDICATE continuation
But nothing that confirms demand.

 

[Cam019]

By the looks of that BIG chart, demand after a consolidation is only ever indicated by gap up bars/up bars on moderate-high volume and then they usually swing into consolidations.

I would prefer to get in before the move up, which now I look at it more, is what happened with the PAA chart, trying to preempt the next breakout bar hoping for the price to continue long (as you stated).

The only bar I can see than might indicate demand before a breakout is Monday, April 3rd. Am I on the right track?

 

[tech/a]

19th is the first bar you can be sure
If you are watching the stock the 18th shows a stand off between supply and demand.
If you saw the gap on open and were on it that is a trade but I doubt I'd have been that keen.

So if it was me I'd be watching this consolidation.
Going too early is expensive.
After a while you'll see what I mean!

 

[Cam019]

End of month (April) update:

 

[tech/a]

Cam you should NEVER let a stock slip 30%

 

[Cam019]

Cam you should NEVER let a stock slip 30%

That was one of the purchases when I was using a 'deep value' strategy.

 

[Cam019]

Trading update:

Sold PAA @ my iSL of 0.059 for a loss of $252.03 (-12.35%) after my falling sell was triggered. I placed a falling sell into the market this morning after yesterdays wide range down bar on increasing volume and concern that today would lead to a close outside the volume/range control bar. On to the next trade.

 

[Cam019]

Trading update: New trade

Rising buy order was triggered this morning purchasing TGG @ 1.375 (green line) after a break above 1.37, iSL was set @ 1.34 (red line), SL has now been moved up to 1.36 (orange line).

 

[peter2]

IMO you've moved your exit trigger too soon. I'd rather see some follow through (higher prices) before raising the stop.

You may as well have started the iSL at 1.36 and left no room for a down tick or two.

A minor point is that this company is a fund manager and the prices won't move too much, but there's a nice smooth trend that's ideal if you're sitting in the sun with a lap rug and a mug of cocoa.

 

[Cam019]

IMO you've moved your exit trigger too soon. I'd rather see some follow through (higher prices) before raising the stop.

You may as well have started the iSL at 1.36 and left no room for a down tick or two.

A minor point is that this company is a fund manager and the prices won't move too much, but there's a nice smooth trend that's ideal if you're sitting in the sun with a lap rug and a mug of cocoa.

Thanks for your opinion Peter. I'm happy with the SL @ 1.36, but I do agree in hindsight that I probably should have placed the iSL @ 1.36, not 1.34. That was my original decision and this thread is all about keeping me honest, so I stuck with it.

My problem has been allowing the SP too much space to fluctuate between my buy price and the iSL, which was bought to my attention.

My stops are usually in the market to reduce my losses from unexpected down bars, so I'm trying to walk the fine line between giving the SP enough room to move without getting stopped out of a trade, whilst also preserving my capital.

 

[peter2]

Yes it is a fine line to tread. Our task is to use the SL method that is most appropriate for our trading style. If our TP uses a signal bar then the entry and SL can be based on the signal bar. If our TP uses a pattern with multiple bars then the entry/SL should be based on the pattern, not one bar within the pattern.

Ideally we want our exit triggers to be out of the noise. The noise being the normal daily movement of price. If we place our SL's within the noise then we must be prepared to act quickly (use automated orders) and be prepared for the occasional price shock against us (opening gap).

The best* SL method for each of us can only be determined from back testing and it has to be applied consistently.

*best - the method that produces the most favourable distribution of results for you.

 

[tech/a]

Don't agree or disagree
But Cam by having your initial S/L at $1.34
You have half the position size you would have if you'd have
Used $1.36
Make it work regardless

 

[Cam019]

Trading update:

Sold TGG yesterday @ my SL of 1.36 for a loss of $58.48 (-3.35%).

 

[aus_trader]

I Agree with Peter, SL is so tight that even a slightly volatile day would trigger it and take you out of the trade. IMO only day traders or intra-day traders use stops this tight.

I am planning to post a medium/longer term portfolio on this site as there are good posters like Peter to watch over you. I've had success with this type of thing in the past and was lucky enough to get into Blackmores (BKL) for a very good gain in 2015. Currently my best gain is with NBN serving company called Service Stream (SSM). But I will not include any of these past or current stocks but will start fresh portfolio as I buy stocks going forward. I will keep you posted...

 

[Rypieee]

I Agree with Peter, SL is so tight that even a slightly volatile day would trigger it and take you out of the trade. IMO only day traders or intra-day traders use stops this tight.

I am planning to post a medium/longer term portfolio on this site as there are good posters like Peter to watch over you. I've had success with this type of thing in the past and was lucky enough to get into Blackmores (BKL) for a very good gain in 2015. Currently my best gain is with NBN serving company called Service Stream (SSM). But I will not include any of these past or current stocks but will start fresh portfolio as I buy stocks going forward. I will keep you posted...

I do enjoy reading on others' trading/investing journey so can't wait for you to post something up! Finding it a great tool to stay committed to updating the ASF community and keeping yourself in check with the many wandering eyes

 

[aus_trader]

Thanks Rypieee. I am going to start a thread called "Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio". I want to actively manage it and check it's stocks are doing well. I find that by having it displayed, others can help me with it's stocks developments, announcements etc. Also I can learn from other experienced investors and traders here.

 

[traderxxx]

Hi All,
excuse my ignorance but what is a vsa(chartist)?
did a follow my trades subforum ever get set up?

 

[rnr]

Hi All,
excuse my ignorance but what is a vsa(chartist)?
did a follow my trades subforum ever get set up?

VSA = Volume Spread Analysis (search for TradeGuider Software).

See Private Members Forum + others throughout the AS Forums.